Fuzzy Bayesian estimation and consequence modeling of the domino effects of methanol storage tanks

Dynamic risk assessment of a coal slurry preparation system based on the structure-variable Dynamic Bayesian Network

In order to strengthen the safety management of coal slurry preparation systems, a dynamic risk assessment method was established by using the bow-tie (BT) model and the Structure-variable Dynamic Bayesian Network (SVDBN). First, the BT model was transformed into a static Bayesian network (BN) model of the failure of a coal slurry preparation system by using the bow-tie model and the structural similarity of the Bayesian cognitive science, based on the SVDBN recursive reasoning algorithm. The risk factors of the coal slurry preparation system were deduced using the Python language in two ways, and at the same time, preventive measures were put forward according to the weak links. In order to verify the accuracy and feasibility of this method, the simulation results were compared with those obtained using GeNIe software. The reasoning results of the two methods were very similar. Without considering maintenance factors, the failure rate of the coal slurry preparation system gradually increases with increasing time. When considering maintenance factors, the reliability of the coal slurry preparation system will gradually be maintained at a certain threshold, and the maintenance factors will increase the reliability of the system. The proposed method can provide a theoretical basis for the risk assessment and safety management of coal slurry preparation systems.

Providing a comprehensive approach to oil well blowout risk assessment

Drilling is one of the most dangerous activities in the oil and gas process industries. Therefore, a holistic approach was presented to prevent and control risks and reduce the uncertainty of blowouts, kick scenarios, and control layers based on the Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN). Four independent protection layers (IPLs) were used to evaluate the blowout outcome, and the failure probabilities of IPL1 and IPL2 were calculated with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Then, different events were transferred to the Bayesian Network (BN) in GeNIe software, and updated the probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree (FFT) results reveal that the failure probabilities for IPL1 and IPL2 amount to 8.94×10-4 and 4.97×10-21, respectively. Also, the blowout probability results based on FFT were larger than FBN. According to FBN, the probability of the kick event was equal to 6.60×10-34. Sensitivity analysis showed that X1 (Mud volume/flow change) had the highest degree of importance in the blowout of oil wells. The results of this study can be used in both a preventive and reactive approach. Deductive and inductive reasoning, the dynamic nature and conditional dependencies, and causal relationships between events can make the model more realistic.