Cost-effectiveness analysis of nivolumab for the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck in the United States

Toripalimab plus chemotherapy in American patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Toripalimab, combined with gemcitabine and cisplatin, has been approved as the first-line treatment for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC), representing a significant milestone as the first FDA-approved innovative therapy for this condition. Despite this achievement, there's a lack of data on the cost-effectiveness of toripalimab for RM-NPC patients in the American context.

METHODS

To assess the cost-effectiveness of toripalimab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone, a 3-state partitioned survival model was constructed. The study involved participants with characteristics matching those in the JUPITER-02 trial. Cost and utility inputs were collected from literature. Main outcomes measured were quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, subgroup analyses, and scenario analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of results.

RESULTS

The study found that the toripalimab regimen resulted in 4.390 QALYs at a cost of $361,813, while the chemotherapy-only regimen yielded 1.685 QALYs at a cost of $161,632. This translates to an ICER of $74,004/QALY, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated that utility values, discount rate, and the price of toripalimab significantly impact INMB. With an 87.10% probability of being cost-effective at a $150,000/QALY threshold, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis supports toripalimab plus chemotherapy as a viable option. Scenario analysis showed that toripalimab remains cost-effective unless its price increases by 125%. Additionally, a simulated 15-year study period increases the ICER to $88,026/QALY. Subgroup analysis revealed ICERs of $76,538/QALY for PD-L1 positive and $70,158/QALY for PD-L1 negative groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Toripalimab in combination with chemotherapy is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to standard chemotherapy for American patients with RM-NPC. This evidence can guide clinical and reimbursement decision-making in treating RM-NPC patients.

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus the EXTREME regimen in recurrent/metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck: a cost-effectiveness analysis

In the CheckMate 651 study, nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus EXTREME (cisplatin/carboplatin + cetuximab + fluorouracil) regimen was compared for effectiveness. It is not known whether these immunotherapy agents are cost-effective for recurrent or metastatic squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck (R/M SCCHN). The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab plus ipilimumab with EXTREME in the first-line setting from the standpoint of third-party payers in the United States. The projecting of costs and outcomes over 15 years was done using a three-state partitioned survival model discounted by 3% per year. Long-term extrapolation of CheckMate 651 was used to model progression-free survival and overall survival (OS). The incremental net health benefit (INHB), incremental net monetary benefit (INMB), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The uncertainty and stability of the model were accounted for via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. As compared with nivolumab plus ipilimumab, EXTREME was associated with an increase of 0.154 life-years and 0.076 QALYs, as well as a cost increase of $572 per patient. The corresponding ICERs were $7545/QALY along with the values of INMB and INHB were $113,267 and 0.076 QALYs, respectively, at a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000/QALY. The probability of nivolumab plus ipilimumab being cost-effective was > 99% in patients with combined positive score (CPS) ≥ 1, CPS 1-19, or CPS ≥ 20. Moreover, hazard ratio for OS and body weight were the most sensitive parameters for the model. According to sensitivity analyses, these results were generally robust. In overall populations with R/M SCCHN, the EXTREME regimen is cost-effective compared with nivolumab plus ipilimumab. Given a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY, the probability of the EXTREME regiment being cost-effective compared with nivolumab and ipilimumab, was 64%. Importantly, there was heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness probabilities, based on primary sites and expression levels of PD-L1. Therefore, tailored treatment based on individual patient and clinical characteristics, remains important, and may impact the cost-effectiveness of the regimens under study.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The increasingly widespread of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in the field of antitumors has brought a new dawn for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (aBTC). However, the choice of treatment needs to be supported by economic evaluation. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness comparison of first-line durvalumab or pembrolizumab plus gemcitabine and cisplatin (GemCis) treatment of aBTC was explored from the perspective of American and Chinese healthcare systems.

METHODS

Ground on the TOPAZ-1 and KEYNOTE-966 trials, the Markov model with a 15-year horizon including three health states to imitate cost and effective outcomes was established. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $100 000/QALY and $37 408/ALY in the USA and China was used as the most important indicator. Other endpoint indexes included total cost, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental net-health benefit (INHB). To verify the robustness, sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Durvalumab plus GemCis ($322 211 [2.94 QALYs] and $35 695 [2.76 QALYs]) increased cost (effectiveness) by $63 777 (.22 QALYs) and $5234 (.20 QALYs) than pembrolizumab plus GemCis ($258 434 [2.72 QALYs] and $30 461 [2.56 QALYs]) in the USA and China, respectively. The corresponding ICER was $288 725/QALY and $26 401/QALY, with INHB of -.42 and .06 QALYs, respectively. The cost of ICIs was the most important factor influencing results.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, first-line durvalumab plus GemCis versus pembrolizumab plus GemCis was a cost-effective option for patients with aBTC, but not in the USA.

Whether and How Disutilities of Adverse Events were Used in the Economic Evaluation of Drug Therapy for Cancer Treatment

BACKGROUND

The disutilities of adverse events (AEs) are important inputs for cost-utility analysis (CUA), reflecting the impacts of AEs on health outcomes. Health technology assessment institutions and scholars have proposed recommendations for applying disutility values in economic evaluations.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify the current use of disutilities of AEs as model parameters in the CUA of cancer drug therapy and to compare the discrepancies between the use of disutilities and published recommendations.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted on the PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases, as well as the official websites of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG), the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) for CUAs of drug therapy for cancer published in English from January 2019 to April 2022. Information about the use of disutilities of AEs (whether and how disutilities were used, or why they were not used) in selected studies was extracted and compared with published recommendations. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize the results.

RESULTS

A total of 467 CUAs were included, 54% (254/467) of which included disutilities of AEs in their model. The proportion that included these disutilities increased from 2019 to 2021, ranging from 47% (51/107) to 61% (116/190). Only 6% (15/254) of the CUAs using disutilities of AEs considered all five recommendations about the justification for inclusion and exclusion, description of values and sources, grades of AEs, calculation, and uncertainty analyses. Only 15% (72/467) provided a clear justification for inclusion and exclusion of disutilities of AEs, and 7% (17/254) did not provide values or sources. In total, 69% (175/254) of the analyses focused on AEs of grade 3 or greater, and 11% (28/254) applied utility decrements for grades 1 and 2. Disutilities of AEs were generally calculated using the incidence rates, which were clearly stated in 49% (65/132) of the analyses. Uncertainty analyses were conducted in 84% (214/254) of the CUAs.

CONCLUSIONS

The current use of disutilities of AEs in CUAs shows some discrepancies with recommendations proposed in the literature. One is that detailed information about the use of disutilities of AEs was not reported and the other is that essential methods to analyze the impact of AEs on quality-adjusted life-years were not thoroughly conducted. Therefore, it is suggested that researchers should attach importance to the impact of AEs on health-related quality of life. Furthermore, an application process was developed for the disutilities of AEs to remind and guide researchers to correctly use the disutilities of AEs as parameters in the decision-analytic model.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy as the first-line treatment for advanced esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE

The KEYNOTE-590 trial showed that individuals with advanced esophageal cancer who received Pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy as a first-line regimen achieved a significant extension of survival. However, this treatment option increases the financial burden on patients and the economic benefits remain to be further evaluated.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to simulate 10-year survival of patients with esophageal cancer from the perspective of United States (US) Medicare payers. We evaluated the economics of Pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy in the PD-L1 positive score (CPS ≥10) and any PD-L1 expression groups, respectively. We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and calculated incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the results. Subgroup analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

The analysis results showed that the ICER for pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone was $293,513.17/QALYs in the any PD-L1 expression group. This exceeded the threshold of willingness to pay ($150,000/QALYs). ICERs were most sensitive to the cost of pembrolizumab and the ICERs exceeded $150,000/QALYs in all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggests that first-line pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy is not a cost-effective option for advanced esophageal cancer in the US, regardless of PD-L1 expression status.

Cost-effectiveness of toripalimab plus chemotherapy for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Toripalimab is an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) against programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1). It has been approved for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) as the first-line treatment due to significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the JUPITER-06 trial.

AIM

This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness between toripalimab plus chemotherapy and placebo plus chemotherapy from the perspective of the Chinese health system.

METHOD

The study developed a 3-year partitioned survival model to assess costs and outcomes in two treatment groups with or without toripalimab. The critical indicator was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the findings and identify the parameters with the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, the incremental effectiveness and cost of toripalimab plus chemotherapy versus placebo plus chemotherapy were 0.26 quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) and $11,254.84, respectively, resulting in an ICER of $43,405.09/QALY, higher than the 2021 willingness-to-pay threshold in China ($37,658.70/QALY). The results were sensitive to the utility of PFS, the incidence of neutropenia in the toripalimab group, and the cost of toripalimab. The toripalimab plus chemotherapy group was cost-effective only if the price of toripalimab decreased by more than 40%.

CONCLUSION

Adding toripalimab to chemotherapy was not cost-effective in patients with advanced ESCC in China.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab plus chemotherapy as first-line treatment for biliary tract cancer

Objective

The TOPAZ-1 trial reported a significant survival benefit of durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of biliary tract cancer (BTC). However, no studies have evaluated the economics of this treatment option. The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of durvalumab plus chemotherapy compared to placebo plus chemotherapy from the perspective of US and Chinese payers.

Methods

Based on clinical data from the TOPAZ-1 trial, a Markov model was developed to simulate 10-year life expectancy and total healthcare costs for patients with BTC. The treatment group received durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy and the control group received placebo plus chemotherapy. The primary outcomes analyzed included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Uncertainty in the analysis results was assessed by sensitivity analysis.

Results

For US payers, the placebo plus chemotherapy group had a total cost of $56,157.05 and a utility of 1.10 QALYs, while the durvalumab plus chemotherapy group had a total cost of $217,069.25, a utility of 1.52 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $381,864.39/QALY. For Chinese payers, the ICER of durvalumab plus chemotherapy group was $367,608.51/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the analysis was most sensitive to the price of durvalumab. For US and Chinese payers, under the respective willing to pay thresholds, the likelihood of the durvalumab plus chemotherapy arm being cost-effective was 0%.

Conclusions

Both in China and in the US, durvalumab in combination with chemotherapy is not a cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of BTC compared with chemotherapy.

Immunotherapy and Biomarker Testing in Recurrent and Metastatic Head and Neck Cancers: ASCO Guideline

PURPOSE

To provide evidence-based recommendations for practicing physicians and other health care providers on immunotherapy and biomarker testing for head and neck cancers.

METHODS

ASCO convened an Expert Panel of medical oncology, surgical oncology, radiation oncology, radiology, pathology, and patient advocacy experts to conduct a literature search, including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, and prospective and retrospective comparative observational studies published from 2000 through 2022. Outcomes of interest included survival, overall response, and locoregional control. Expert Panel members used available evidence and informal consensus to develop evidence-based guideline recommendations.

RESULTS

The literature search identified 28 relevant studies to inform the evidence base for this guideline.

RECOMMENDATIONS

When possible, evidence-based recommendations were developed to address biomarker testing, first-line treatment regimens based on programmed death ligand-1 scores, immunotherapy in platinum-refractory recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, immunotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and radiation therapy in combination with immunotherapy for treatment of local recurrence.Additional information is available at www.asco.org/head-neck-cancer-guidelines.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Sintilimab Combined with Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone as the First-Line Treatment for Advanced Esophageal Cancer

Background: Esophageal cancer has a poor prognosis and currently ranks sixth in global cancer mortality rates. The ORIENT-15 trial showed sintilimab plus chemotherapy significantly improved survival when compared to chemotherapy alone. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sintilimab, a programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitor, plus chemotherapy in treating patients with esophageal cancer compared with chemotherapy alone. Methods: A Markov model with a 10-year horizon was developed based on the perspective of the Chinese healthcare payers. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis for sintilimab combined with chemotherapy based on a questionnaire. Patients were grouped into the sintilimab group based on a positive score of 10 or more (combined positive score (CPS) ≥ 10 groups), and those with any other PD-L1 expression were randomized into patient groups. We estimated the cost and the effectiveness of sintilimab on the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was computed. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the cost-effectiveness results. Results: In the base-case analysis, compared with chemotherapy alone, the ICER of sintilimab plus chemotherapy for all patients was $21024.05 per QALY, and in the CPS≥10 group, it was $20974.23 per QALY. This was lower than $37653 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that ICERs were most sensitive to the price of sintilimab. Conclusion: The study demonstrated that sintilimab plus chemotherapy for advanced esophageal cancer as its first-line treatment would be more cost-effective than chemotherapy alone in Chinese patients.

Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab plus ipilimumab as first-line treatment for American patients with unresectable malignant pleural mesothelioma

Background

The treatment paradigm of unresectable malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) has changed in recent years. Checkmate 743 demonstrate that nivolumab plus ipilimumab showed good clinical benefits compared with chemotherapy in the treatment of MPM. The study is aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs. platinum plus chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of unresectable MPM.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to compare the cost and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of nivolumab plus ipilimumab and chemotherapy over a 10-year time horizon. Clinical efficacy and safety data were extracted from the CheckMate 743 trials. Health state utilities were obtained from published literature. Costs were collected from an US payer perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the cost-effectiveness's results.

Results

In the base case analysis, the incremental healthcare costs and QALYs for Nivolumab plus Ipilimumab vs. chemotherapy are $196,604.22 and 0.53, respectively, resulting an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $372,414.28/QALYs for the model cohort of patients with locally advanced or metastatic MPM. However, Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that there was no probability that Nivolumab plus ipilimumab was cost-effective within the fluctuation range of other model parameters in first-line in unresectable MPM. The results of one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of Nivolumab was the most sensitive parameter.

Conclusions

The ICER of Nivolumab plus ipilimumab is above the theoretical willingness-to-pay threshold in the U.S, which suggests that first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab for unresectable MPM may be not a cost-effective choice.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: A systematic review of phase-3 clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The outcomes of patients diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) who are not candidates for local salvage therapy and of those diagnosed with recurrent or metastatic disease are dismal. A relatively new systemic therapy option that emerged in recent years in the treatment of advanced HNSCC is immunotherapy using immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The safety profile and anti-tumor activity of these agents demonstrated in early phase clinical trials paved the way to the initiation of several promising phase-3 trials in the field.

AIM

To evaluate the evidence on the effectiveness of ICIs in HNSCC, based on published phase-3 clinical trials.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Scopus to identify published literature evaluating immunotherapy using ICIs in recurrent or metastatic HNSCC (R/M HNSCC) and locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LAHNSCC). We used a combination of standardized search terms and keywords including head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, recurrent, metastatic, locally advanced, immunotherapy, immune checkpoint inhibitors, monoclonal antibodies, programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1), programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), cytotoxic T- lymphocyte associated protein-4 (CTLA-4), and phase-3 clinical trial. A sensitive search filter was used to limit our results to randomized controlled trials.

RESULTS

Five phase-3 clinical trials have reported the data on the effectiveness of immunotherapy in HNSCC so far: Four in R/M HNSCC and one in LAHNSCC. In patients with R/M HNSCC, anti-PD-1 agents nivolumab and pembrolizumab demonstrated improved survival benefits in the second-line treatment setting compared to the standard of care (standard single-agent systemic therapy). While the net gain in overall survival (OS) with nivolumab was 2.4 mo [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.69, P = 0.01], that with pembrolizumab was 1.5 mo (HR = 0.80 nominal P = 0.0161). The anti-PD-L1 agent durvalumab with or without the anti-cytotoxic T- lymphocyte associated protein-4 agent tremelimumab did not result in any beneficial outcomes. In the first-line setting, in R/M HNSCC, pembrolizumab plus platinum-based chemotherapy resulted in significant improvement in survival with a net gain in OS of 2.3 mo (HR = 0.77, P = 0.0034) in the overall population and a net gain in OS of 4.2 mo in the PD-L1 positive (combined positive score > 20) population compared to standard of care (EXTREME regime). In patients with PD-L1 positive R/M HNSCC, monotherapy with pembrolizumab also demonstrated statistically significant improvement in survival compared to EXTREME. In LAHNSCC, immunotherapy using avelumab (an anti-PD-L1 agent) along with standard chemoradiation therapy did not result in improved outcomes compared to placebo plus chemoradiation therapy.

CONCLUSION

Anti-PD-1 agents provide survival benefits in R/M HNSCC in the first and second-line settings, with acceptable toxicity profiles compared to standard therapy. There is no proven efficacy in the curative setting to date.

Chemo-Immunotherapy Regimes for Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Network Meta-Analysis and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Introduction: In 2021, two phase III clinical trials confirmed that toripalimab or camrelizumab combined with gemcitabine and cisplatin (TGP or CGP) provide more benefits in the first-line treatment of R/M NPC than GP. Fortunately, TGP and CGP were recently approved as first-line treatments for cases experiencing R/M NPC by the China National Medical Products Administration in 2021. However, due to the high cost and variety of treatment options, the promotion of chemo-immunotherapeutics in the treatment of R/M NPC remains controversial. Therefore, we performed a cost-effectiveness assessment of the two newly approved treatment strategies to assess which treatments provide the greatest clinical benefits at a reasonable cost.

Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis and network meta-analysis network meta-analysis was conducted based on the JUPITER-02 and CAPTAIN-first Phase 3 randomized clinical trials. A Markov model was expanded for the evaluation of the effectiveness and cost of TGP, CGP, and GP chemotherapy with a 10-years horizon and measured the health achievements in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and life-years (LYs). We constructed a treatment strategy and other parameters based on two clinical trials and performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity experiments for the evaluation of the uncertainty in the model.

Results: For the model of patients with treatment-R/M NPC, TGP was associated with a total cost of $48,525 and 2.778 QALYs (4.991 LYs), leading to an ICER of $15,103 per QALY ($10,321 per LY) compared to CGP. On comparing the GP chemotherapy, we found TGP and CGP incurred substantial health costs, resulting in ICERs of $19,726 per QALY and $20,438 per QALY, respectively. The risk of adverse events (AEs) and the price of the drugs had significant impacts on the ICER. At the assumed willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $35,673 per QALY, there were approximately 75.8 and 68.5% simulations in which cost-effectiveness was achieved for TGP and CGP, respectively.

Conclusion: From the Chinese payer’s perspective, TGP is more possible to be a cost-effective regimen compared with CGP and GP for first-line treatment of patients with R/M NPC at a WTP threshold of $35,673 per QALY.

Pembrolizumab with or without chemotherapy versus cetuximab plus chemotherapy to treat recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: An updated KEYNOTE-048 based cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

Recently, updated data from KEYNOTE-048 revealed that pembrolizumab with or without chemotherapy could improve progression-free survival (PFS)2 compared with cetuximab plus chemotherapy in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov structure was conducted to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of pembrolizumab monotherapy or pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy vs. cetuximab plus chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of recurrent or metastatic HNSCC from the United States payer's perspective. Total cost, health outcomes, and incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Additional analyses were conducted in the total population and in two different programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) combined positive scores (CPSs) (≥1 and ≥ 20) population. Sensitivity analysis were used to test the stability of the model.

RESULTS

When compared with cetuximab plus chemotherapy, the pembrolizumab monotherapy strategy was dominated by lower cost and better efficacy in all three populations. The incremental costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) yielded by pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy compared with cetuximab plus chemotherapy were $16016.88 and 0.11 in the total population, and $24467.47 and 0.18 and $30448.46 and 0.20 in the populations with a PD-L1 CPS ≥ 1 and CPS ≥ 20, respectively, leading to ICERs of $147876.14, $134237.84, and $153660.78 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

First-line treatment with pembrolizumab or pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy are cost-effective strategies compared with cetuximab plus chemotherapy when the value of willingness-to-pay (WTP) was $150000 per QALY for the total and PD-L1 CPS ≥ 1 populations with recurrent or metastatic HNSCC.

Nivolumab vs Pembrolizumab for Treatment of US Patients With Platinum-Refractory Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Network Meta-analysis and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Importance

Nivolumab and pembrolizumab are approved for treating platinum-refractory recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC). Physicians and patients are uncertain which drug is preferable, rendering a cost-effectiveness comparison between them necessary.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab vs pembrolizumab in treating platinum-refractory R/M HNSCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Both the network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis included patients from the CheckMate 141 and the KEYNOTE 040 phase 3 randomized clinical trials. The Checkmate 141 trial started on May 1, 2014, with the present analysis based on a September 2017 data cutoff. The KEYNOTE 040 trial started on November 17, 2014, with the present analysis based on a May 15, 2017, data cutoff. A bayesian network meta-analysis that included 856 patients was carried out, and a cost-effectiveness analysis that included 487 patients was conducted by developing a partitioned survival model, both between February and November 2020. The robustness of the model was assessed via 1-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses; subgroup analyses were included; and scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the associations of dosage adjustment of nivolumab with cost-effectiveness.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), overall costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured.

Results

In the cost-effectiveness analysis that included 487 patients, for US health care payers, when nivolumab was administered based on patient weight (3 mg/kg biweekly), at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000 per QALY, the probability of nivolumab being cost-effective compared with pembrolizumab was 56%; at a WTP threshold of $150 000 per QALY, the probability was 62%. When nivolumab was administered at a fixed dose of 240 mg biweekly or 480 mg monthly, at a WTP threshold of $100 000 per QALY, the probability of nivolumab being cost-effective was 42% to 45%; at a WTP threshold of $150 000 per QALY, the probability was 52% to 55%.

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings from this network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis suggest considering both WTP threshold and patient body weight when choosing between nivolumab and pembrolizumab for the treatment of patients with platinum-refractory R/M HNSCC. When the WTP threshold was $100 000 per QALY, for patients weighing less than 72 kg, nivolumab (3 mg/kg, biweekly) was considered cost-effective; otherwise, pembrolizumab was preferable. When the WTP threshold was $150 000 per QALY, nivolumab (3 mg/kg biweekly) was considered cost-effective for patients weighing less than 75 kg; otherwise, fixed-dose nivolumab (240 mg biweekly or 480 mg monthly) provided more cost savings.

A novel comprehensive immune-related gene signature as a promising survival predictor for the patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), the most frequent subtype of head and neck cancer, continues to have a poor prognosis with no improvement. The TNM stage is not satisfactory for individualized prognostic assessment and it does not predict response to therapy. In the present study, we downloaded the gene expression profiles from TCGA database to establish a training set and GEO database for a validation set. In the training set, we developed an 10 immune-related genes signature which had superior predictive value compared with TNM stage. A nomogram including clinical characteristics was also constructed for accurate prediction. Furthermore, it was determined that our prognostic signature might act as an independent factor for predicting the survival of HNSCC patients. As for the immune microenvironment, our results showed higher immune checkpoint expression (CLTA-4 and PD-1) in low-risk group which might reflect a positive immunotherapy response. Thus, our signature not only provided a promising biomarker for survival prediction, but might be evaluated as an indicator for personalized immunotherapy in patients with HNSCC.