Diagnostic capacity and interobserver variability in FIGO, ACOG, NICE and Chandraharan cardiotocographic guidelines to predict neonatal acidemia

Large-scale analysis of interobserver agreement and reliability in cardiotocography interpretation during labor using an online tool

BACKGROUND

While the effectiveness of cardiotocography in reducing neonatal morbidity is still debated, it remains the primary method for assessing fetal well-being during labor. Evaluating how accurately professionals interpret cardiotocography signals is essential for its effective use. The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of fetal hypoxia prediction by practitioners through the interpretation of cardiotocography signals and clinical variables during labor.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional online survey, involving 120 obstetric healthcare providers from several countries. One hundred cases, including fifty cases of fetal hypoxia, were randomly assigned to participants who were invited to predict the fetal outcome (binary criterion of pH with a threshold of 7.15) based on the cardiotocography signals and clinical variables. After describing the participants, we calculated (with a 95% confidence interval) the success rate, sensitivity and specificity to predict the fetal outcome for the whole population and according to pH ranges, professional groups and number of years of experience. Interobserver agreement and reliability were evaluated using the proportion of agreement and Cohen's kappa respectively.

RESULTS

The overall ability to predict a pH level below 7.15 yielded a success rate of 0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60), a sensitivity of 0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60) and a specificity of 0.63 (95% CI 0.61-0.65). No significant difference in the success rates was observed with respect to profession and number of years of experience. The success rate was higher for the cases with a pH level below 7.05 (0.69) and above 7.20 (0.66) compared to those falling between 7.05 and 7.20 (0.48). The proportion of agreement between participants was good (0.82), with an overall kappa coefficient indicating substantial reliability (0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of an online tool enabled us to collect a large amount of data to analyze how practitioners interpret cardiotocography data during labor. Despite a good level of agreement and reliability among practitioners, the overall accuracy is poor, particularly for cases with a neonatal pH between 7.05 and 7.20. Factors such as profession and experience level do not present notable impact on the accuracy of the annotations. The implementation and use of a computerized cardiotocography analysis software has the potential to enhance the accuracy to detect fetal hypoxia, especially for ambiguous cardiotocography tracings.

CTG interpretation templates affect residents' decision making

OBJECTIVE

To study whether a revision of CTG guidelines and educational program influenced the perceived need for intervention by residents in obstetrics and gynecology. A secondary aim was to study the sensitivity and specificity of the classification pathological after classification by residents using two different guidelines in identifying neonates with acidemia.

STUDY DESIGN

Cardiotocograms, CTGs, from 223 neonates with acidemia at birth (cord blood pH < 7.05 at vaginal birth or second stage cesarean, or pH < 7.10 at first stage cesarean) were included, as well as 223 CTGs from neonates with cord blood pH ≥ 7.15. Two separate groups of residents, who each were educated in and had clinical experience only from either of the two different guidelines, SWE09 and SWE17, classified the patterns according to the at the time current template and judged whether the patterns indicated an intervention. Sensitivity, specificity, and agreement were calculated.

RESULTS

Residents using SWE09 found indication to intervene in a higher proportion of neonates with acidemia (84.8%) than residents using SWE17 (75.8%; p = 0.002), as well as in cases without acidemia (29.6% vs 22.4%; p = 0.038). Among residents using SWE09 the perceived need for intervention had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 70% to identify acidemia. With SWE17 the corresponding rates were 76% and 78%. The sensitivity to identify neonates with acidemia by classification pathological was 91% with SWE09 and 72% with SWE17. The specificity was 53% and 76% respectively. The agreement rate between perception of indication to intervene and classification pathological using the SWE09 was κ 0.73, moderate, and with the SWE17 κ 0.77, moderate. The agreement on subjective perception of necessity to intervene between users of the two templates was weak to moderate, κ 0.60, and on classification pathological weak, κ 0.47.

CONCLUSION

The perceived need for intervention by residents interpreting CTGs was significantly affected by the guidelines in use. The difference in decisions were less pronounced than the difference in classification. The sensitivity for both perceived need for intervention and for classification pathological to identify acidosis was higher with SWE09, and the specificity higher with SWE17, when assessed by the two comparable groups of residents.

Comparison of Four Intrapartum Cardiotocography Classifications for Predicting Neonatal Acidemia at Birth

Objective

To compare diagnostic values of four intrapartum cardiotocography (CTG) classifications in predicting neonatal acidemia at birth.

Methods

Retrospective case-control study. Forty-three CTG traces with an umbilical artery pH < 7.00 (study group) and 43 traces with a pH ≥ 7.00 (control group) were analyzed. Inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancy, cephalic presentation, admission to labour ward during active phase of first stage of labour, and gestational age 37⁺⁰ to 41⁺⁶ weeks. Exclusion criteria were suspected intrauterine growth restriction, oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios, pregestational or gestational insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and preeclampsia. Last 30-60 minutes before delivery of CTG traces was classified retrospectively according to four classification systems-International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO), Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG), National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), and the 5-tier system by Parer and Ikeda. Predictive value of each classification for neonatal acidemia was assessed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis.

Results

FIGO, RCOG, and NICHD classifications predicted neonatal acidemia with areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.84; 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.83; and 0.69, 95% CI 0.57-0.80, respectively. The five-tier system by Parer and Ikeda had significantly better predictive value with an AUC of 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.00.

Conclusions

The 5-tier classification system proposed by Parer and Ikeda for assessing CTG in labour was superior to FIGO, RCOG, and NICHD intrapartum CTG classifications in predicting severe neonatal acidemia at birth.

A case-control study of the interaction of fetal heart rate abnormalities, fetal growth restriction, meconium in the amniotic fluid and tachysystole, in relation to the outcome of labour

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the incidence of intrapartum risk factors in labours with an adverse outcome, and compare them with the incidence of the same indicators in a series of consecutive labours without adverse outcome.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

SETTING

Twenty-six maternity units in the UK.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

Sixty-nine labours with an adverse outcome and 198 labours without adverse outcome.

METHODS

Observational study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of risk factors in hourly assessments for 7 hours before birth in the two groups.

RESULTS

A risk score combining suspected fetal growth restriction, tachysystole, meconium in the amniotic fluid and fetal heart rate abnormalities (baseline rate and variability, presence of decelerations) gave the best indication of likely outcome group.

CONCLUSIONS

Accurate risk assessment in labour requires fetal heart rate abnormalities to be considered in context with additional intrapartum risk factors.

Perinatal outcomes in twin late preterm pregnancies: results from an Italian area-based, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiple gestations represent a considerable proportion of pregnancies delivering in the late preterm (LP) period. Only 30% of LP twins are due to spontaneous preterm labor and 70% are medically indicated; among this literature described that 16-50% of indicated LP twin deliveries are non-evidence based. As non-evidence-based delivery indications account for iatrogenic morbidity that could be prevented, the objective of our observational study is to investigate first neonatal outcomes of LP twin pregnancies according to gestational age at delivery, chorionicity and delivery indication, then non evidence-based delivery indications.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study among twins infants born between 34 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks, in Emilia Romagna, Italy, during 2013-2015. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 346 LP twins, 84 (23.4%) were monochorionic and 262 (75.7%) were dichorionic; spontaneous preterm labor accounted for 85 (24.6%) deliveries, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes for 66 (19.1%), evidence based indicated deliveries were 117 (33.8%), while non-evidence-based indications were 78 (22.5%). When compared to spontaneous preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, pregnancies delivered due to maternal and/or fetal indications were associated with higher maternal age (p <  0.01), higher gestational age at delivery (p <  0.01), Caucasian race (p 0.04), ART use (p <  0.01), gestational diabetes (p <  0.01), vaginal bleeding (p <  0.01), antenatal corticosteroids (p <  0.01), diagnosis of fetal growth restriction (FGR) (p <  0.01), and monochorionic (p <  0.01). Two hundred twenty-six pregnancies (65.3%) had at least one fetus experiencing one composite of adverse perinatal outcome. Multivariate analysis confirmed that delivery indication did not affect the composite of adverse perinatal outcomes; the only characteristic that affect the outcome after controlling for confounding was gestational age at delivery (p <  0.01). Moreover, there was at least one adverse neonatal outcome for 94% of babies born at 34 weeks, for 73% of those born at 35 weeks and for 46% of those born at 36 weeks (p <  0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the decision to deliver or not twins in LP period should consider gestational age at delivery as the main determinant infants' prognosis. Delivery indications should be accurately considered, to avoid iatrogenic early birth responsible of preventable complications.

Short-term morbidity and types of intrapartum hypoxia in the newborn with metabolic acidaemia: a retrospective cohort study

Objectives

To assess labour characteristics in relation to the occurrence of Composite Adverse neonatal Outcome (CAO) within a cohort of fetuses with metabolic acidaemia.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Three Italian tertiary maternity units.

Population

431 neonates born with acidaemia ≥36 weeks.

Methods

Intrapartum CTG traces were assigned to one of these four types of labour hypoxia: acute, subacute, gradually evolving and chronic hypoxia. The presence of CAO was defined by the occurrence of at least one of the following: Sarnat Score grade ≥2, seizures, hypothermia and death <7 days from birth.

Main outcome measures

To compare the type of hypoxia on the intrapartum CTG traces among the acidaemic neonates with and without CAO.

Results

The occurrence of a CAO was recorded in 15.1% of neonates. At logistic regression analysis, the duration of the hypoxia was the only parameter associated with CAO in the case of an acute or subacute pattern (odds ratio [OR] 1.3; 95% CI 1.02–1.6 and OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.0–1.1, respectively), whereas both the duration of the hypoxic insult and the time from PROM to delivery were associated with CAO in those with a gradually evolving pattern (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.01–1.3 and OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.0–1.7, respectively). The incidence of CAO was higher in fetuses with chronic antepartum hypoxia than in those showing CTG features of intrapartum hypoxia (64.7 vs. 13.0%; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The frequency of CAO seems related to the duration and the type of the hypoxic injury, being higher in fetuses showing CTG features of antepartum chronic hypoxia.

Tweetable abstract

This study demonstrates that in a large population of neonates with metabolic acidaemia at birth, the overall incidence of short‐term adverse outcome is around 15%. Such risk seems closely correlated to the duration and the type of hypoxic injury, being higher in fetuses admitted in labour with antepartum chronic hypoxia than those experiencing intrapartum hypoxia.

This study demonstrates that in a large population of neonates with metabolic acidaemia at birth, the overall incidence of short‐term adverse outcome is around 15%. Such risk seems closely correlated to the duration and the type of hypoxic injury, being higher in fetuses admitted in labour with antepartum chronic hypoxia than those experiencing intrapartum hypoxia.

Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Acidemia Using Electronic Fetal Monitoring Recording Parameters

Background: Electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) is the universal method for the surveillance of fetal well-being in intrapartum. Our objective was to predict acidemia from fetal heart signal features using machine learning algorithms. Methods: A case–control 1:2 study was carried out compromising 378 infants, born in the Miguel Servet University Hospital, Spain. Neonatal acidemia was defined as pH < 7.10. Using EFM recording logistic regression, random forest and neural networks models were built to predict acidemia. Validation of models was performed by means of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Results: Best performance was attained using a random forest model built with 100 trees. The discrimination ability was good, with an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.865. The calibration showed a slight overestimation of acidemia occurrence for probabilities above 0.4. The clinical utility showed that for 33% cutoff point, missing 5% of acidotic cases, 46% of unnecessary cesarean sections could be prevented. Logistic regression and neural networks showed similar discrimination ability but with worse calibration and clinical utility. Conclusions: The combination of the variables extracted from EFM recording provided a predictive model of acidemia that showed good accuracy and provides a practical tool to prevent unnecessary cesarean sections.