SNAPPE-II and MDAS scores as predictors for surgical intervention in very low birth weight neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis

Development of a Prediction Model for Surgery or Early Mortality at the Time of Initial Assessment for Necrotizing Enterocolitis

OBJECTIVE

 No available scale, at the time of initial evaluation for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), accurately predicts, that is, with an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.9, which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.

STUDY DESIGN

 This is a retrospective cohort study (n = 261) of preterm infants with <33 weeks' gestation or <1,500 g birth weight with either suspected or with definite NEC born at Parkland Hospital between 2009 and 2021. A prediction model using the new HASOFA score (Hyperglycemia, Hyperkalemia, use of inotropes for Hypotension during the prior week, Acidemia, Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [nSOFA] score) was compared with a similar model using the nSOFA score.

RESULTS

 Among 261 infants, 112 infants had NEC stage I, 68 with NEC stage II, and 81 with NEC stage III based on modified Bell's classification. The primary outcome, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week, occurred in 81 infants (surgery in 66 infants and death in 38 infants). All infants with pneumoperitoneum or abdominal compartment syndrome either died or had surgery. The HASOFA and the nSOFA scores were evaluated in 254 and 253 infants, respectively, at the time of the initial workup for NEC. Both models were internally validated. The HASOFA model was a better predictor of surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week than the nSOFA model, with greater AUC 0.909 versus 0.825, respectively, p < 0.001. Combining HASOFA at initial assessment with concurrent or later presence of abdominal wall erythema or portal gas improved the prediction surgery for NEC stage III or death with AUC 0.942 or 0.956, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 Using this new internally validated prediction model, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week can be accurately predicted at the time of initial assessment for NEC.

KEY POINTS

· No available scale, at initial evaluation, accurately predicts which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.. · In this retrospective cohort study of 261 preterm infants with either suspected or definite NEC we developed a new prediction model (HASOFA score).. · The HASOFA-model had high discrimination (AUC: 0.909) and excellent calibration and was internally validated..

Methods of identifying surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis-a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current data suggests potential benefit of earlier surgery for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) however this requires accurate prognostication early in the disease course. This study aims to identify and determine the effectiveness of previously reported methods or tests for the identification of surgical NEC.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis with registration on PROSPERO including articles describing a method of identifying surgical NEC. Outcomes of interest were effectiveness and repeatability of index test.

RESULTS

Of the 190 full-text articles screened, 90 studies were included which contained 114 methods of identifying surgical NEC in 9546 infants. Of these methods, 44 were a scoring system, 37 a single biomarker, 24 an imaging method, and 9 an invasive method. Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 12.8-100% to 13-100%, respectively. Some methods (9.6%) provided insufficient methods for repeatability within clinical practice or research. Meta-analyses were possible for only 2 methods, the metabolic derangement 7 score and abdominal ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS

A range of methods for identifying surgical NEC have been identified with varying overall performance and uncertainties about reproducibility and superiority of any method. External validation in large multicentre datasets should allow direct comparison of accuracy and prospective study should evaluate impact on clinical outcomes.

IMPACT

Earlier identification of need for surgery in necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) has the potential to improve the unfavourable outcomes in this condition. As such, many methods have been developed and reported to allow earlier identification of surgical NEC. This study is the first synthesis of the literature which identifies previously reported methods and the effectiveness of these. Many methods, including scoring systems and biomarkers, appear effective for prognostication in NEC and external validation is now required in multicentre datasets prior to clinical utility.

Neurodevelopmental impairment following surgical necrotizing enterocolitis with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks: who is at risk?

PURPOSE

Surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a severe medical condition that, even after surgery, a portion of the survival infants may still have neurological sequelae. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the development of permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in neonates with surgical NEC.

METHODS

Between January 2016 and June 2022, a retrospective data collection was conducted on 98 individuals who experienced surgical NEC with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks. Among these patients, 27 patients were diagnosed with NDI, while the remaining 71 patients did not have NDI. Based on this division, the patients were categorized into the NDI group and the Non-NDI group. Demographics, comorbidities, and admission lab results were analyzed using univariate and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 98 neonates following surgical NEC, 27(27.6%) developed permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). Predictors of NDI were identified through the final multivariable logistic regression analysis, which revealed that gestational age ≤ 32 weeks (p = 0.032; odds ratio [OR], 5.673), assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset (p = 0.047; OR, 5.299), postoperative acute kidney injury (p = 0.040; OR, 5.106), CRP day 3 after NEC onset (p = 0.049; OR, 1.037), time from presentation to surgery (p = 0.003; OR, 1.047) were significant risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified gestational age ≤ 32 weeks, assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset, postoperative acute kidney injury, CRP day 3 after NEC onset, and time from presentation to surgery as significant risk factors for NDI in neonates with surgical NEC. These factors would be helpful to refine treatment modalities for better disease outcomes. We also determined the cut-off values of CRP day 3 after NEC onset and time from presentation to surgery, allowing for the individualized evaluation of NDI risk and the implementation of earlier targeted laparotomy.