Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease

Where we stand on chronic wasting disease: A systematic literature review of its prevalence patterns, impacts, and management interventions

With high fatality and no cure, chronic wasting disease (CWD) has infected cervids in multiple regions, including the United States, Canada, Europe, and South Korea. Despite the rapid growth of literature on CWD, the full scope of its ecological, social, and economic impacts and the most effective and socially acceptable management strategies to mitigate the disease is unclear. Of 3008 initially identified published peer-reviewed papers, 134 were included in a final systematic literature review to synthesize the current knowledge on CWD transmission patterns, impacts, and the effectiveness of management interventions. The number of publications on CWD has increased steadily since 2000 with an average of six papers per year. Most papers were related to CWD prevalence (39 %), human behavior (33 %), CWD impacts (31 %), and management interventions (16 %). Environmental factors such as soil, water, and plants were identified as the most common transmission medium, with a higher prevalence rate among adult male cervids than females. Hunters showed a higher risk perception and were more likely to change hunting behavior due to CWD detection than non-hunters. Ecological impacts included the decreased survival rate accompanied by lower population growth, eventually leading to the decline of cervid populations. Culling was found to be an effective and widely implemented management strategy across countries, although it often was associated with public resistance. Despite potentially high negative economic impacts anticipated due to CWD, studies on this subject were limited. Sustained surveillance, ongoing research, and engagement of affected stakeholders will be essential for future disease control and management.

A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement

Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers to quantify primary school contact patterns and how contact rates changed upon re-opening with risk mitigation measures in place. These rates, with uncertainties, were determined using a performance-based algorithm. We report mean number of contacts per day for four cohorts within schools, with associated 90% confidence ranges. Prior to lockdown, younger children (Reception and Year 1) made 15 contacts per day [range 8.35] within school, older children (Year 6) 18 contacts [range 5.55], teaching staff 25 contacts [range 4.55] and non-classroom staff 11 contacts [range 2.27]. After re-opening, the mean number of contacts was reduced by 53% for young children, 62% for older children, 60% for classroom staff and 64% for other staff. Contacts between teaching and non-teaching staff reduced by 80%. The distributions of contacts per person are asymmetric with heavy tail reflecting a few individuals with high contact numbers. Questions on risk mitigation and supplementary structured interviews elucidated how new measures reduced daily contacts in-school and contribute to infection risk reduction.