Where developmental toxicity meets explainable artificial intelligence: state-of-the-art and perspectives

Can Machine Learning Overcome the 95% Failure Rate and Reality that Only 30% of Approved Cancer Drugs Meaningfully Extend Patient Survival?

Despite implementing hundreds of strategies, cancer drug development suffers from a 95% failure rate over 30 years, with only 30% of approved cancer drugs extending patient survival beyond 2.5 months. Adding more criteria without eliminating nonessential ones is impractical and may fall into the "survivorship bias" trap. Machine learning (ML) models may enhance efficiency by saving time and cost. Yet, they may not improve success rate without identifying the root causes of failure. We propose a "STAR-guided ML system" (structure-tissue/cell selectivity-activity relationship) to enhance success rate and efficiency by addressing three overlooked interdependent factors: potency/specificity to the on/off-targets determining efficacy in tumors at clinical doses, on/off-target-driven tissue/cell selectivity influencing adverse effects in the normal organs at clinical doses, and optimal clinical doses balancing efficacy/safety as determined by potency/specificity and tissue/cell selectivity. STAR-guided ML models can directly predict clinical dose/efficacy/safety from five features to design/select the best drugs, enhancing success and efficiency of cancer drug development.

From Deep Learning to the Discovery of Promising VEGFR-2 Inhibitors

Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR-2) stands as a prominent therapeutic target in oncology, playing a critical role in angiogenesis, tumor growth, and metastasis. FDA-approved VEGFR-2 inhibitors are associated with diverse side effects. Thus, finding novel and more effective inhibitors is of utmost importance. In this study, a deep learning (DL) classification model was first developed and then employed to select putative active VEGFR-2 inhibitors from an in-house chemical library including 187 druglike compounds. A pool of 18 promising candidates was shortlisted and screened against VEGFR-2 by using molecular docking. Finally, two compounds, RHE-334 and EA-11, were prioritized as promising VEGFR-2 inhibitors by employing PLATO, our target fishing and bioactivity prediction platform. Based on this rationale, we prepared RHE-334 and EA-11 and successfully tested their anti-proliferative potential against MCF-7 human breast cancer cells with IC50 values of 26.78±4.02 and 38.73±3.84 μM, respectively. Their toxicities were instead challenged against the WI-38. Interestingly, expression studies indicated that, in the presence of RHE-334, VEGFR-2 was equal to 0.52±0.03, thus comparable to imatinib equal to 0.63±0.03. In conclusion, this workflow based on theoretical and experimental approaches demonstrates effective in identifying VEGFR-2 inhibitors and can be easily adapted to other medicinal chemistry goals.

Recent progress in machine learning approaches for predicting carcinogenicity in drug development

INTRODUCTION

This review explores the transformative impact of machine learning (ML) on carcinogenicity prediction within drug development. It discusses the historical context and recent advancements, emphasizing the significance of ML methodologies in overcoming challenges related to data interpretation, ethical considerations, and regulatory acceptance.

AREAS COVERED

The review comprehensively examines the integration of ML, deep learning, and diverse artificial intelligence (AI) approaches in various aspects of drug development safety assessments. It explores applications ranging from early-phase compound screening to clinical trial optimization, highlighting the versatility of ML in enhancing predictive accuracy and efficiency.

EXPERT OPINION

Through the analysis of traditional approaches such as in vivo rodent bioassays and in vitro assays, the review underscores the limitations and resource intensity associated with these methods. It provides expert insights into how ML offers innovative solutions to address these challenges, revolutionizing safety assessments in drug development.

TISBE: A Public Web Platform for the Consensus-Based Explainable Prediction of Developmental Toxicity

Despite being extremely relevant for the protection of prenatal and neonatal health, the developmental toxicity (Dev Tox) is a highly complex endpoint whose molecular rationale is still largely unknown. The lack of availability of high-quality data as well as robust nontesting methods makes its understanding even more difficult. Thus, the application of new explainable alternative methods is of utmost importance, with Dev Tox being one of the most animal-intensive research themes of regulatory toxicology. Descending from TIRESIA (Toxicology Intelligence and Regulatory Evaluations for Scientific and Industry Applications), the present work describes TISBE (TIRESIA Improved on Structure-Based Explainability), a new public web platform implementing four fundamental advancements for in silico analyses: a three times larger dataset, a transparent XAI (explainable artificial intelligence) framework employing a fragment-based fingerprint coding, a novel consensus classifier based on five independent machine learning models, and a new applicability domain (AD) method based on a double top-down approach for better estimating the prediction reliability. The training set (TS) includes as many as 1008 chemicals annotated with experimental toxicity values. Based on a 5-fold cross-validation, a median value of 0.410 for the Matthews correlation coefficient was calculated; TISBE was very effective, with a median value of sensitivity and specificity equal to 0.984 and 0.274, respectively. TISBE was applied on two external pools made of 1484 bioactive compounds and 85 pediatric drugs taken from ChEMBL (Chemical European Molecular Biology Laboratory) and TEDDY (Task-Force in Europe for Drug Development in the Young) repositories, respectively. Notably, TISBE gives users the option to clearly spot the molecular fragments responsible for the toxicity or the safety of a given chemical query and is available for free at https://prometheus.farmacia.uniba.it/tisbe.