Circumcision as a primary HIV preventive: extrapolating from the available data

Comment on 'Changing relationships between HIV prevalence and circumcision in Lesotho', and 'Age-incidence and prevalence of HIV among intact and circumcised men: an analysis of PHIA surveys in Southern Africa'

Two articles by Garenne (2023a,b) argue that voluntary medical male circumcision does not reduce human immunodeficiency virus transmission in Africa. Here we point out key evidence and analytical flaws that call into question this conclusion.

Age-incidence and prevalence of HIV among intact and circumcised men: an analysis of PHIA surveys in Southern Africa

The study investigates the statistical relationship between male circumcision and HIV prevalence in Africa, in the context of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) campaigns in place since 2008. Data from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys conducted in African countries in 2017-2018 were utilized. Six countries with high HIV prevalence, low traditional circumcision and large VMMC programs were selected: Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe. The statistical analysis investigated the relative risk (RR) of HIV prevalence by circumcision status (circumcised vs intact) among men age 20-59, and the age-incidence of HIV in the two groups among men age 20-49, defined as the linear-logistic slope of the relationship between prevalence and age. Results show that the standardized RR was not different from 1 at older ages (50-59): RR = 0.923, 95% CI = 0.769-1.108, P = 0.390. Furthermore, the age-incidence was at least as high or higher among the circumcised groups than among the intact groups. The standardized RR was lower than 1 at younger ages, and this could be explained by selection biases. HIV prevalence at age 40-59 (27.3%) was also the same in the four groups of circumcision status (intact, traditional, medical, unknown). Results matched earlier observations made in South Africa that circumcised and intact men had similar levels of HIV infection. The study questions the current strategy of large scale VMMC campaigns to control the HIV epidemic. These campaigns also raise a number of ethical issues.

Changing relationships between HIV prevalence and circumcision in Lesotho

The study investigates the complex relationships between circumcision and HIV prevalence in Lesotho, using Demographic and Health surveys (DHS) conducted in 2004, 2009 and 2014. Before the HIV epidemic, about half of the male adult population was circumcised as part of a traditional custom, and this proportion increased markedly after 2008 with the campaigns of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC), while HIV prevalence stayed at the same level. In 2004, HIV prevalence was higher in circumcised groups than in intact groups (RR=1.49, 95% CI=1.20-1.86). This relationship changed over time, and was inversed in 2014 (RR=0.86; 95% CI=0.70-1.06). The changing relationship seems to be due to an interaction with education, with more educated men being more circumcised and having less HIV over time. A multivariate analysis showed no net effect of circumcision on HIV, after controlling for wealth, education, and indicators of marriage and sexual behaviour. A small net effect of VMMC was found, probably due to condom use. In couple studies, the effect of circumcision and VMMC on HIV was not significant, with similar transmission from female to male and male to female. The study questions the amount of effort and money spent on VMMC in Lesotho.

Critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically evaluate evidence against male circumcision (MC).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE and Cochrane databases.

RESULTS

Database searches retrieved 297 publications for inclusion. Bibliographies of these yielded 101 more. After evaluation we found: Claims that MC carries high risk were contradicted by low frequency of adverse events that were virtually all minor and easily treated with complete resolution. Claims that MC causes psychological harm were contradicted by studies finding no such harm. Claims that MC impairs sexual function and pleasure were contradicted by high-quality studies finding no adverse effect. Claims disputing the medical benefits of MC were contradicted by a large body of high-quality evidence indicating protection against a wide range of infections, dermatological conditions, and genital cancers in males and the female sexual partners of men. Risk-benefit analyses reported that benefits exceed risks by 100-200 to 1. To maximize benefits and minimize risks, the evidence supported early infant MC rather than arguments that the procedure should be delayed until males are old enough to decide for themselves. Claims that MC of minors is unethical were contradicted by balanced evaluations of ethical issues supporting the rights of children to be provided with low-risk, high-benefit interventions such as MC for better health. Expert evaluations of case-law supported the legality of MC of minors. Other data demonstrated that early infant MC is cost-saving to health systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Arguments opposing MC are supported mostly by low-quality evidence and opinion, and are contradicted by strong scientific evidence.

Voluntary medical male circumcision and HIV in Zambia: expectations and observations

The study analysed the HIV/AIDS situation in Zambia six years after the onset of mass campaigns of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC). The analysis was based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 2001, 2007 and 2013. Results show that HIV prevalence among men aged 15-29 (the target group for VMMC) did not decrease over the period, despite a decline in HIV prevalence among women of the same age group (most of their partners). Correlations between male circumcision and HIV prevalence were positive for a variety of socioeconomic groups (urban residence, province of residence, level of education, ethnicity). In a multivariate analysis, based on the 2013 DHS survey, circumcised men were found to have the same level of infection as uncircumcised men, after controlling for age, sexual behaviour and socioeconomic status. Lastly, circumcised men tended to have somewhat riskier sexual behaviour than uncircumcised men. This study, based on large representative samples of the Zambian population, questions the current strategy of mass circumcision campaigns in southern and eastern Africa.

In developed countries male circumcision prevalence is inversely related to HIV prevalence

A study by Chemtob and co-workers found significantly lower prevalence of HIV amongst heterosexual men and women in Israel compared with the Netherlands and France. Risk factors for heterosexual HIV infection in these countries were similar, apart from one, namely, a strikingly higher prevalence of male circumcision (MC) in Israel compared with the Netherlands and France. It is now well established that MC protects heterosexual men against becoming infected with HIV during sexual intercourse with an infected woman. In epidemic settings, such as countries in sub-Saharan Africa, in which heterosexual contact is the primary driver for HIV infection, MC is being implemented to reduce HIV prevalence. The results of the new study by Chemtob and co-workers support the evidence and recent polices in the United States advocating MC to reduce the spread of HIV. While prevalence in developed countries is generally low, it is rising. In the long term, neonatal MC is the most desirable option, since not only is it simpler, safer, cheaper and more convenient than MC later, it provides immediate protection from infections, penile inflammation, genital cancers and physical problems. It is also cost-effective. European countries have not supported MC for its public health benefits. The new findings add to calls for European and other countries with low MC prevalence to consider developing evidence-based policies favoring MC in order to reduce HIV and other infections and diseases and at the same time reduce suffering, mortality and the cost of treating these.