Identification of factors influencing severity of motorcycle crashes in Dhaka, Bangladesh using binary logistic regression model

Examining driver injury severity in motor vehicle crashes: A copula-based approach considering temporal heterogeneity in a developing country context

Using data from a developing country, the current study develops a copula-based joint modeling framework to study crash type and driver injury severity as two dimensions of the severity process. To be specific, a copula-based multinomial logit model (for crash type) and generalized ordered logit model (for driver severity) is estimated in the study. The data for our analysis is drawn from Bangladesh for the years of 2000 to 2015. Given the presence of multiple years of data, we develop a novel spline variable generation approach that facilitates easy testing of variation in parameters across time in crash type and severity components. A comprehensive set of independent variables including driver and vehicle characteristics, roadway attributes, environmental and weather information, and temporal factors are considered for the analysis. The model results identify several important variables (such as driving under the influence of drug and alcohol, speeding, vehicle type, maneuvering, vehicle fitness, location type, road class, road geometry, facility type, surface quality, time of the day, season, and light conditions) affecting crash type and severity while also highlighting the presence of temporal instability for a subset of parameters. The superior model performance was further highlighted by testing its performance using a holdout sample. Further, an elasticity exercise illustrates the influence of the exogenous variables on crash type and injury severity dimensions. The study findings can assist policy makers in adopting appropriate strategies to make roads safer in developing countries.

Analyzing the Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) among Motorcyclists in Bangladesh

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire involving 402 motorcyclists from four major southeastern towns, comprising 350 (86.07%) males and 52 (12.93%) females. The chi-square test was applied in bivariate analysis, and binary multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine the risk factors of road traffic crashes.

Results

This study's findings revealed that the overall reported prevalence of road traffic crashes involving motorcycle drivers over one year was 68.66%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed several factors that significantly impacted road traffic crashes. These factors included driving without a valid driving license, the young age (<20) of motorcyclists, driving in rainy weather, exceeding the speed limit, per-week working hours, smoking status, motorcycle ownership, the brand of motorcycle, and not wearing a helmet while driving.

Conclusion

The study findings highlight the need for improving motorcycle safety by implementing measures such as imposing per-week work hour limits for riders, enforcing traffic regulations, and promoting helmet use among motorcycle drivers. The results of this study draw attention to the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) and motorcycle drivers in the country to decrease motorcycle crashes and the severity of injuries by implementing efficient guidelines and strategies for driving motorcycles. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and concerned authorities in taking the essential steps to lessen road traffic crashes among motorcyclists in Bangladesh.

Supervised and unsupervised techniques to analyze risk factors associated with motorcycle crash

PURPOSE

Motorcycles are one of the highly used modes of transport in Barcelona, Spain, in particular, and in many different regions, in general. This situation is compromising safety on the road and may be attributed to a potential increase in traffic crashes. Therefore, this study examines several risk factors and their consequential impacts on the level of injury that is resulted in case of a traffic crash.

METHODS

Two approaches are employed to analyze the risk factors, including a supervised learning technique which is a binary probit model, and an unsupervised technique which is the Kohonen clustering.

RESULTS

The results for both models show that alcoholism and road in poor condition can indeed increase the probability of having different levels of injuries as reasons for the crash. Elderly users are less likely to be involved in motorcycle crash injuries compared to other age categories, especially the age group that ranges from 25 to 40 years old which has the highest odds. For both techniques, the performance in analyzing the utilized data shows that both approaches can be successfully utilized for this type of dataset.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the considerable danger faced by motorcyclists due to various risk factors. It stresses the critical importance of maintaining roads in optimal condition not just for efficient travel but also to enhance motorcyclists' safety. Additionally, the research underscores the significant threat posed by speeding, particularly exceeding speed limits, to motorcyclists' safety, emphasizing the urgent need for more 30 km/h speed limit zones and stricter enforcement of speed regulations. As a result, the research has identified several risk factors that increase the likelihood of severe or fatal injuries among motorcyclists in Barcelona and has suggested certain recommendations to mitigate their impact.

Examining factors influencing the severity of motorized two-wheeler crashes in Delhi

Failure to meet road safety targets has necessitated urgent actions from stakeholders worldwide, especially in developing countries like India. Road safety of motorized two-wheelers (MTWs), one of India's most preferred travel modes for urban commutes, is in danger and witnessing threatening figures of fatalities and injuries. Most of the studies in the domain of MTW safety were conducted in developed countries, with very limited research in countries having a significant proportion of MTWs. The present work investigates police-reported crash data to identify the contributory factors of motorized two-wheeler crash severity. Data from MTW crash-prone areas were selected from Delhi, which is leading in road traffic fatalities among the million-plus urban cities in India. A binary logistic regression model was developed using the data for 2016-2018 period. The model results show that the odds of fatal motorized two-wheeler crashes increase when the following circumstances apply: crash occurs on underpasses; involves bus, truck, heavy motor vehicle (lorry, crane) as the striking vehicle; when hit-and-run type of crash occurs and when older age-group (> = 55) riders are involved. Finally, based on the findings, countermeasures were suggested to facilitate policymakers and traffic enforcement agencies, in improving the road safety situation of MTW users.

Following car reduces motorcycles' size-arrival effect: A study using online experiments

Many fatal motorcycle accidents occur because car drivers infringe on motorcycle riders' right-of-way. The size-arrival effect refers to observers' tendency to judge larger objects as arriving sooner than smaller objects when estimating an approaching object's arrival time, which is one cause of right-of-way motorcycle accidents. Previous research has focused on a single vehicle that approaches the driver. However, it is also possible that a motorcycle approaches a driver along with other vehicles driving on multiple-lane roads. This paper presents the results of two online experiments; Experiment 1 validated the size-arrival effect when either a car or a motorcycle approached a driver waiting to turn across an intersection; and Experiment 2 investigated the size-arrival effect when a motorcycle and a parallelly driven car simultaneously approached the driver. Participants (n = 1723) in Experiment 1 and (n = 986) in Experiment 2 took part in the study. The results (1) validated the size-arrival effect; drivers accepted a smaller gap for approaching motorcycles than cars; (2) in the present settings drivers made turn decisions based on the distance gap rather than the time-to-arrival gap; (3) driver's acceptance of the gap when facing a motorcycle and a car was comparable to when facing only the car and significantly larger than facing only a motorcycle. These findings indicate that a car driving parallelly or behind a motorcycle reduces the size-arrival effect. These findings provide implications to suggest a safe riding strategy for motorcycle riders. We also suggest that such online experiments would facilitate studying large samples with less effort.

An application of the hybrid AHP-PROMETHEE approach to evaluate the severity of the factors influencing road accidents

The evaluation of the severity of the factors influencing road accidents with a detailed severity distribution is critical to plan evidence-based road safety improvements and strategies. However, currently available studies use statistical and machine learning (ML) models to evaluate the severity of factors causing road accidents without a detailed severity distribution. Further, most of these available models require significant pre-data processing and have certain data-centric limitations. However, the multi criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques have the potential to combine expert opinions for robust analysis without any pre-data processing calculations. Thus, this study uses a hybrid analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) approach to analyse the severity of factors and characteristics that influence road accidents within the Gujarat state, using injury types as criteria and minor road accident influencing factors as alternatives. These 82 minor factors have been further characterised into 18 characteristics and 4 major factors. Further, AHP integrated 40 expert inputs to determine criterion weights, while PROMETHEE ranked all minor variables. Then, after applying k-mean clustering, each ranked factor has been classified as very severe, moderately severe, or severe. The result clearly highlights that overspeeding, male gender, and clear weather conditions have been concluded to be the highly severe factors for Gujarat state. Thus, by providing a clear severity analysis and distribution of factors influencing road accidents, the proposed research may help government stakeholders, researchers, and politicians build severity-based road safety reforms and strategies with clarity.

Factors affecting motorcycle crash casualty severity at signalized and non-signalized intersections in Ghana: Insights from a data mining and binary logit regression approach

Despite the countless benefits derived from motorcycle usage, it has become a significant public health concern, particularly in developing countries, due to the plateauing number of fatal/serious injuries associated with them. Although it has been well documented that the frequency and fatality rates of intersection-related motorcycle crashes are high, little research efforts have been made to explore the contributory factors influencing motorcycle-involved crashes at these locations. Interestingly, no study has investigated the latent patterns and chains of factors that simultaneously contribute to the injury severity sustained by motorcycle crash casualties at intersections under different traffic control conditions in developing countries. Since motorcycles are mostly used as taxis in developing countries, it is imperative to consider the injury severity sustained by all crash casualties in the motorcycle safety analysis. This study bridges the research gap by employing a plausible data mining tool to explore hidden rules associated with motorcycle crash casualty injury severity outcomes at both signalized and non-signalized intersections in Ghana's most densely populated region, Accra, using three-year crash data spanning 2016-2018. Besides, a binary logit regression model was also employed to explore the impact of crash factors on casualty severity outcomes using the same dataset. The results from both analysis techniques were consistent; however, the data mining technique provided chains of factors which provided additional insights into the groups of factors that collectively influence the casualty injury severity outcomes. From the rule discovery results, while full license status, daytime/daylight, and shoulder presence increased the risk of fatal injuries at signalized intersections, factors such as inattentiveness, good road surface, nighttime, shoulder absence, and young rider were highly likely to increase casualty fatalities at non-signalized intersections. By controlling all or some of these risk factors, the level of injury severity on the roadways could be reduced. Based on the findings, we provide enforcement, education, and engineering-based recommendations to help improve motorcycle safety.