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Vinayaraj VS, Perumal V. Analyzing the factors affecting the crash severity level at urban roundabouts in non-lane-based heterogeneous traffic. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot 2024; 31:181-193. [PMID: 37975862 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2279967] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Pivotal crash factors are investigated, and crash-severity model for the safety assessment at roundabouts and its vicinity in non-lane based heterogenous traffic is developed. An ordered-probit model was developed using crash-data collected between 2015-2019 for 20 roundabouts in India. The analysis revealed critical influencing parameters for determining the severity-level of crash outcomes at roundabouts, namely, inscribed-circle diameter, height of central island, number of circulatory lanes, presence of splitter island and median, posted-speed limit, type of collision, type of violation behaviour, collision partner, the pattern of collision, presence of road lane-marking, presence of street-light and age of victims. To precisely quantify the impact of each significant factor, marginal effects analysis was also carried out. The results show that the probability of fatal-injuries increased by 14.28% due to angle-collision, 15% for hit-pedestrians, 20.6% due to the pattern of collision and 15.60% due to the collision-partner, Whereas the probability of occurrence of grievous injury was the highest for rear-end with 17%, followed by sideswipe collision with 16% respectively. This study's findings can aid in developing effective remedies to reduce the crash severity for roundabouts road-users and updating the roundabout design standards, considering the safety perceptive.
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Affiliation(s)
- V S Vinayaraj
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
| | - Vedagiri Perumal
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
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Wang C, Abdel-Aty M, M Easa S, Chen F, Cheng J, Jamal A. Evaluating helmet-wearing of single-vehicle overspeeding motorcycle crashes: Insights from temporal instability in parsimonious pooled framework. TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 2024; 25:623-630. [PMID: 38546458 DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2024.2331644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE A lower helmet-wearing rate and overspeeding in Pakistan are critical risk behaviors of motorcyclists, causing severe injuries. To explore the differences in the determinants affecting the injury severities among helmeted and non-helmeted motorcyclists in motorcycle crashes caused by overspeeding behavior, single-vehicle motorcycle crash data in Rawalpindi city for 2017-2019 is collected. Considering three possible crash injury severity outcomes of motorcyclists: fatal injury, severe injury and minor injury, the rider, roadway, environmental, and temporal characteristics are estimated. METHODS To provide a mathematically simpler framework, the current study introduces parsimonious pooled random parameters logit models. Then, the standard pooled random parameters logit models without considering temporal effects are also simulated for comparison. By comparing the goodness of fit measure and estimation results, the parsimonious pooled random parameters logit model is suitable for capturing the temporal instability. Then, the non-transferability among helmeted and non-helmeted overspeeding motorcycle crashes is illustrated by likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample prediction, and two types of models provide robust results. The marginal effects are also calculated. RESULTS Several variables, such as age, cloudy and weekday indicators illustrate temporal instability. Moreover, several variables are observed to only show significance in non-helmeted models, showing non-transferability across helmeted and non-helmeted models. CONCLUSIONS More educational campaigns, regulation and enforcement, and management countermeasures should be organized for non-helmeted motorcyclists and overspeeding behavior. Such findings also provide research reference for the risk-compensating behavior and self-selected group issues under overspeeding riding considering the usage of helmets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenzhu Wang
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Mohamed Abdel-Aty
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA
| | - Said M Easa
- Department of Civil Engineering, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada
| | - Fei Chen
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jianchuan Cheng
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Arshad Jamal
- Transportation and Traffic Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
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Se C, Champahom T, Jomnonkwao S, Chonsalasin D, Ratanavaraha V. Modeling of single-vehicle and multi-vehicle truck-involved crashes injury severities: A comparative and temporal analysis in a developing country. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 197:107452. [PMID: 38183691 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024]
Abstract
Truck-involved crashes persist as a significant concern, yielding noteworthy human casualties and causing economic ramifications, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the associated factors influencing injury severity in truck-involved crashes, with a particular emphasis on discerning variations between single-vehicle and multi-vehicle incidents, as well as accounting for heterogeneity and temporal stability. The data analysis involves a meticulous examination of crash data spanning the entirety of Thailand from 2017 to 2020. Employing three distinct levels of injury severities, namely PDO injury, moderate injury, and severe injury, the study employs a series of mixed logit models that account for unobserved heterogeneity in both means and variances. Results revealed significant instability in injury risk determinants over time among both single and multi-vehicle events. Aligning predictive assessments further spotlighted fluctuations in projected burdens across models and years - collectively underscoring the imperative to integrate temporal considerations into modeling and prevention. Several crash-type distinctions and priorities emerged. For single-truck events, key risks included roadway alignments and geometry, speeding, fatigue, and lighting conditions. However multi-truck collisions concentrated around exposure factors like highway traits, sightline limitations, and vulnerable road users. Ultimately, the technique permitted responsive countermeasure targeting and recalibration opportunities keyed to each crash form's evolving landscapes. While it is indeed noteworthy that several variables have exhibited instability in their effects, it is equally important to acknowledge the existence of certain variables that maintain a relative degree of temporal stability. This underscores their pivotal role in shaping the foundation of enduring strategies aimed at enhancing traffic safety in the long run. The multifaceted investigation constitutes an invaluable reference for diverse transportation stakeholders seeking to curb rising truck fatalities through evidence-based improvements in policy, engineering, usage protocols, and technologies. It provides a blueprint for nimble safety planning within complex modernizing road systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chamroeun Se
- Institute of Research and Development, Suranaree University of Technology, 111, Maha Witthayalai Rd, Suranari, Mueang, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
| | - Thanapong Champahom
- Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, 744 Sura Narai Rd, Nai-muang, Muang, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
| | - Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111, Maha Witthayalai Rd, Suranari, Mueang, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
| | - Dissakoon Chonsalasin
- Faculty of Railway Systems and Transportation, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, 744 Sura Narai Rd, Nai-muang, Muang, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
| | - Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111, Maha Witthayalai Rd, Suranari, Mueang, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand.
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Wang C, Ijaz M, Chen F, Song D, Hou M, Zhang Y, Cheng J, Zahid M. Differences in single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors: considering temporal shifts and unobserved heterogeneity in prediction. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot 2023; 30:375-391. [PMID: 37074764 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2200768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 04/20/2023]
Abstract
Distraction and overspeed behaviors are acknowledged as two significant contributors to single-vehicle motorcycle crashes, injuries and fatalities resulting from which are severe and critical issues in Pakistan. To explore the temporal instability and differences in the factors determining the injury severities between single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors, this study estimated two groups of random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. Single-vehicle motorcycle crash data in Rawalpindi city between 2017 and 2019 was used for model estimation, and a wide variety of explanatory variables relating to the rider, roadways, environments, and temporal attributes was simulated in the models. The current study considered three possible crash injury severity outcomes: minor injury, severe injury and fatal injury. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to explore the temporal instability and non-transferability. Marginal effects were also calculated to further reveal temporal instability of the variables. Except for several variables, the most significant factors reported temporal instability and non-transferability, manifested as the effects varied from year to year and across different crashes. Moreover, out-of-sample prediction was also implemented to capture temporal instability and non-transferability between distraction and overspeed crash observations. The non-transferability between motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors provides insights into developing differentiated countermeasures and policies targeted at preventing and mitigating single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by the two risk-taking behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenzhu Wang
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Muhammad Ijaz
- School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Fei Chen
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Dongdong Song
- MOT Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
| | - Mingyu Hou
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yunlong Zhang
- Zachry Department of Civil Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Jianchuan Cheng
- School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Muhammad Zahid
- Department of Civil, Geological, and Mining Engineering, École Polytechnique de Montréal, Canada
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Champahom T, Se C, Jomnonkwao S, Boonyoo T, Leelamanothum A, Ratanavaraha V. Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3845. [PMID: 36900855 PMCID: PMC10001501 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20053845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thanapong Champahom
- Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
| | - Chamroeun Se
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
| | - Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
| | - Tassana Boonyoo
- Traffic and Transport Development and Research Center (TDRC), King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
| | - Amphaphorn Leelamanothum
- Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
| | - Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
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