Within-sport specialisation and entry age as predictors of success among age group swimmers

Career factors related to winning Olympic medals in swimming

To investigate associations between a swimmer's career progression and winning a medal at the Olympic Games (OG) or World Championships (WC). A total of 4631 swimming performances of 1535 top swimmers (653 women, 882 men) from 105 nationalities since1973 were extracted from FINA rankings. A panel of 12 predictor variables including nationality, gender, competition, age, number and timing of competitions, pattern of progressions and regressions in performance, and medal outcomes was established. Linear logistic regression was used to study the association between winning a medal and predictor variables. Logistic regression coefficients were obtained by training on 80% of the database, and prediction accuracy evaluated on the remaining 20%. Using the training set, a selection of 9 most relevant features for prediction of winning a medal (target variable) was obtained through exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation: nationality, competition, number of competitions, number of annual career progressions (nb_prog), maximum annual career progression (max-progr), number of annual career regressions (nb_reg), age at maximum annual progression, P6 (the level of performance six months before the World Championships or Olympic Games), and P2 (the level of performance two months before the World Championships or Olympic Games). A logistic regression model was built and retrained on the entire training set achieved an area under the ROC curve of ~90% on the test set. The odds of winning a medal increased by 1.64 (95% CI, 1.39-1.91) and 1.44 (1.22-1.72) for each unit of increase in max-progr and n-prog, respectively. Odds of winning a medal decreased by 0.60 (0.49-0.72) for a unit increase in n-reg. In contrast, the odds increased by 1.70 (1.39-2.07) and 4.35 (3.48-5.42) for improvements in the 6 and 2 months before competition (P<0.001, for all variables). The likelihood of a swimmer winning an international medal is improved by ~40-90% with progressions from season-to-season, and reducing the number of regressions in performance. The chances of success are also improved 2- to 4-fold by substantial improvements in performance in the months before competition.

Young Swimmers' Anthropometrics, Biomechanics, Energetics, and Efficiency as Underlying Performance Factors: A Systematic Narrative Review

Introduction: In youth swimming, researchers are interested in understanding how anthropometry and parameters related to swimming technique (biomechanics, energetics, and efficiency) influence the performance. However, there is not any review in the literature that consolidates the body of knowledge of this topic. The objective of this study was to review systematically the current body of work on the influence of determinant factors related to swimming technique (biomechanics, energetics, and efficiency) and anthropometry in the young performance of swimmers.

Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to identify relevant studies.

Results: After screening, 240 studies were analyzed and 59 related to swimming performance, and its determinant factors were retained for synthesis. Studies revealed a high-quality index by PEDro scale (mean score was 7.17 ± 1.40). Twenty-five studies were longitudinal designs and the remaining 34 cross-sectional designs. Most of the studies (N = 39, 66.1%) reported concurrently two or more determinant factors (anthropometrics, biomechanics, energetics, and efficiency).

Conclusion: Youth swimming research relies on a multifactorial assessment. From the synthesis, it is possible to conclude that the performance of young swimmers is characterized by a multifactorial, holistic, and dynamic phenomenon. Better performance has always been related to better swimming technique and higher anthropometrics. This suggests that both anthropometrics (i.e., nature) and training (i.e., nurture) play key roles in the swimming performance of young swimmers.

Involvement in Multiple Race Events Among International Para and Non-disabled Swimmers

International elite Para swimmers form a large portion of the overall multi-medalist winning population. For the highest performing Para swimmers, world class performances were achieved across different strokes. The aim of this study was to quantify the level of involvement across different events and to examine this in relation to the level of performance. The performances in swimming speed of the top 100 females and males for both Para- and non-disabled swimmers were collected in 11 race events between 2009 and 2019 (4,400 performances for 307 Para females and 365 Para males, 605 non-disabled females, and 715 non-disabled males). We tallied the number of events in which each swimmer was involved. Swimmers were grouped according to the total number of race events in which they participated. Then the association between involvement and level of performance was investigated. Para swimmers with impairment from classes seven to 14 were involved in a range of race events across different strokes. The most common combination for both Para and non-disabled athletes was over similarly distanced races of the same stroke (50 and 100 m freestyle). The more race events in which Para swimmers involved, the higher the level of performance that was achieved. This trend can partially be explained by the less concentrated competition pool for Para swimmers compared to able-bodied swimmers. Para swimmers with minimal and no physical impairment perform in multiple race events more often than able-bodied swimmers. Fewer Para swimmers at the international level and a less concentrated competition pool could explain these differences.

The relative age effect in German 11- to 18-year-old male and female swimmers

Relatively older athletes have a greater probability of being selected and subsequently exposed to a higher level of coaching, training and other talent-promoting factors. Grouping by chronological age is, therefore, considered to be one of the weaknesses in talent identification. A large number of studies have confirmed the prevalence of the relative age effect (RAE) across various sports, including swimming. This investigation aims to quantify the prevalence, magnitude and transient pattern of the RAE according to sex and events across German swimmers. The RAE was examined top-100 ranked swimmers (2004–2013) according to birth month, of three cohorts (born 1993–1995; n = 3630) for the age groups 11–18. The Χ2 tests and Cramer’s V estimated effect sizes; odd’s ratios and confidence intervals calculated relative discrepancies between the quartiles. The RAE is significantly present over all events for female swimmers until 13–15 and for males until 16–18 years of age. Effect sizes were moderate until 12/13 years of age for females and 14/15 years of age for males. No inverted effects were visible. Compared to previous reports on Australian as well as Portuguese cohorts, the RAE was prevalent over a longer time period. Therefore, the impact of negative outcomes from RAE appears to be greater among German age group swimmers.