Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients in a Thai hospital-based cancer registry

Grading carcinoembryonic antigen levels can enhance the effectiveness of prognostic stratification in patients with colorectal cancer: a single-centre retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study developed a refined carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) grading system using CEA cut-off points of 5, 20 and 50 ng/mL and to explore the prognostic value of CEA grading in predicting the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University.

PARTICIPANTS

1107 CRC patients who received surgical treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. A Cox regression model with a 95% CI was used to evaluate the independent prognostic risk factors for CRC. Prognostic nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-5-year PFS/OS.

RESULTS

Elevated serum CEA levels are often indicative of recurrence and death in CRC patients. Higher CEA levels were significantly associated with more aggressive tumour phenotypes. The CEA grading system was an independent predictor of prognosis in CRC patients and effectively stratified PFS (62.0% vs 51.2% vs 33.7% vs 20.2%, p<0.001) and OS (64.7% vs 54.4% vs 36.6% vs 22.5%, p<0.001) in CRC patients. As the CEA grade increased, the risk of poor prognosis gradually increased in a gradient manner, with an approximately 10% difference in risk grade between each CEA grade. The internal validation cohort further confirmed that CEA grade remains an effective prognostic factor for the survival of CRC patients. Prognostic nomograms, which integrate individual characteristics, tumour features and CEA grading, provide a more comprehensive prognostic evaluation for CRC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The CEA grading system is an independent predictor of prognosis for CRC patients and can effectively stratify PFS and OS.

Clinicopathologic Characteristics Influencing Overall Survival of Patients With Early- Versus Average-Onset Colorectal Cancer at a Tertiary Care Center in Indonesia

PURPOSE

There has been a global increase in early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), yet there has been very limited exploration of its impact in Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the clinicopathologic characteristics and the overall survival (OS) of EOCRC compared with those of average-onset colorectal cancer (AOCRC).

METHODS

Medical records were retrospectively reviewed from all patients presenting with colorectal cancer (CRC) at Dr Sardjito General Hospital (Yogyakarta, Indonesia) between 2016 and 2019. Sociodemographic, clinicopathologic, and treatment variables were extracted. t Tests were used to compare characteristics of EOCRC and AOCRC patient groups. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze age and other potential prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The total population (N = 1,276) comprised EOCRC (n = 149; 11.7%) and AOCRC (n = 1,127; 88.3%) patients. EOCRC patients were more likely to have a higher education level, be single, have out-of-pocket insurance, be underweight, and have signet ring histology (all P values <.05), compared with AOCRC patients. EOCRC and AOCRC groups had a comparable estimated 5-year OS of 34.2% and 36.9%, respectively. In multivariable analyses, performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group), hemoglobin level, cancer stage, and treatment intention were independent prognostic factors for OS (all P values <.05).

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this first major study of EOCRC in Indonesia highlights its role in the overall burden of CRC and its connection with social determinants of health. Patients with EOCRC are more commonly underweight and generally have a higher proportion of signet ring histology than AOCRC, yet OS in both groups is similar. Future research is required to identify risk factors to inform the content and focus of public health education activities, alongside delineating the biology and causes of early and average onset of the disease.

Elevated serum homocysteine levels associated with poor recurrence-free and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer

This study aimed to evaluate the significance of homocysteine (HCY) levels in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This retrospective study involved 1272 CRC patients. The risk of mortality increased with increasing HCY levels in CRC patients. The optimal HCY cutoff value in CRC patients was 15.2 μmol/L. The RFS (45.8% vs. 60.5%, p < 0.001) and OS (48.2% vs. 63.2%, p < 0.001) of patients with high HCY levels were significantly lower than those of patients with low HCY levels. Patients with high HCY levels were older, male, had large tumours, high carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, and long hospital stays, and incurred high hospitalisation costs. Multivariate analysis showed that when HCY levels exceeded 15.2 μmol/L, the risk of adverse RFS and OS increased by 55.7% and 61.4%, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that HCY levels could supplement CEA levels and pathological staging. We constructed HCY-based prognostic nomograms, which demonstrated feasible discrimination and calibration values better than the traditional tumour, node, metastasis staging system for predicting RFS and OS. Elevated serum HCY levels were strongly associated with poor RFS and OS in CRC patients. HCY-based prognostic models are effective tools for a comprehensive evaluation of prognosis.

The cancer inflammation prognostic index is a valuable biomarker for predicting the survival of patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer

This study aimed to assess the relationship between the Cancer-Inflammation Prognostic Index (CIPI) and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer (CRC). The relationship between the CIPI and survival was evaluated using restricted cubic splines. Survival curves were established using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore independent prognostic factors for CRC. Meaningful variables from the multivariate analysis were used to construct prognostic nomograms. The relationship between the CIPI values on a continuous scale and the risk of DFS/OS mortality was an inverted L-shape. Patients with a high CIPI had significantly lower DFS (53.0% vs. 68.5%, p < 0.001) and OS (55.5% vs. 71.7%, p < 0.001) than those with a low CIPI. The CIPI can also serve as an effective auxiliary tool to further distinguish the prognosis of patients with CRC at the same pathological stage, especially for stages II and III. After multivariate adjustment, a high CIPI was found to be an independent risk factor for DFS (HR 1.443, 95% CI 1.203-1.730, p < 0.001) and OS (HR 1.442, 95% CI 1.189-1.749, p < 0.001) in CRC patients. These nomograms have the advantage of integrating individual profiles, tumour characteristics, and serum inflammatory markers, providing favourable discrimination and calibration values. Compared with traditional TNM staging, nomograms have a better predictive performance. The CIPI is an effective and easy-to-use clinical tool for predicting the recurrence and overall mortality of patients with stage I-III CRC.

The value of carcinoembryonic antigen stage in staging, prognosis, and management of colorectal cancer: results from two cohort studies

Background

Combining the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (C stage) with TNM staging can provide a more comprehensive prognostic assessment of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the clinical value of incorporating CEA status into the TNM staging system needs to be evaluated.

Methods

We used the SEER database (N = 49,350) and a retrospective cohort from China (N = 1,440). A normal CEA level was staged as C0 and an elevated CEA level was staged as C1. Restricted cubic spline analysis was used to examine the dose-response relationship between the CEA level and survival. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to plot survival curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models with forward stepwise variable selection were used to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Patients with C1 were more likely to have advanced disease than those with C0. CEA on a continuous scale was positively associated with mortality risk. Compared with patients with C0 stage, those with C1 stage had significantly lower survival rates. In the SEER dataset, C1 was independently associated with poor prognosis in patients with CRC, with an approximately 70% increased risk of mortality. Patients with C1 stage had significantly lower survival than those with C0 stage at all clinical stages. Incorporating the C stage into the TNM staging refined the prediction of prognosis of patients with CRC, with a gradual decline in prognosis from stage I C0 to stage IV C1. A similar pattern was observed in the present retrospective cohort study. At each lymph node stage, patients with C1 had significantly lower 5-year survival rates than patients with C0. Compared with lymph node positivity, CEA positivity may have a stronger correlation with a worse prognosis.

Conclusion

Our findings not only validated the independent prognostic significance of CEA in CRC but also demonstrated its enhanced prognostic value when combined with TNM staging. Our study provides evidence supporting the inclusion of C stage in the TNM staging system.

Dynamics of colorectal cancer screening in low and middle-income countries: A modeling analysis from Thailand

BACKGROUND

Low and middle-income countries face constraints for early colorectal cancer (CRC) detection, including restricted access to care and low colonoscopy capacity. Considering these constraints, we studied strategies for increasing access to early CRC detection and reducing CRC progression and mortality rates in Thailand.

METHODS

We developed a system dynamics model to simulate CRC death and progression trends. We analyzed the impacts of increased access to screening via fecal immunochemical test and colonoscopy, improving access to CRC diagnosis among symptomatic individuals, and their combination.

RESULTS

Projecting the status quo (2023-2032), deaths per 100K people increase from 87.5 to 115.4, and CRC progressions per 100K people rise from 131.8 to 159.8. In 2032, improved screening access prevents 2.5 CRC deaths and 2.5 progressions per 100K people, with cumulative prevented 7K deaths and 9K progressions, respectively. Improved symptom evaluation access prevents 7.5 CRC deaths per 100K with no effect on progression, totaling 35K saved lives. A combined approach prevents 9.3 deaths and 1.8 progressions per 100K, or 41K and 7K cumulatively. The combined strategy prevents most deaths; however, there is a tradeoff: It prevents fewer CRC progressions than screening access improvement. Increasing the current annual colonoscopy capacity (200K) to sufficient capacity (681K), the combined strategy achieves the best results, preventing 15.0 CRC deaths and 10.3 CRC progressions per 100K people, or 54K and 30K cumulatively.

CONCLUSION

Until colonoscopy capacity increases, enhanced screening and symptom evaluation are needed simultaneously to curb CRC deaths, albeit not the best strategy for CRC progression prevention.

Survival of 48866 cancer patients: results from Nantong area, China

Objective

This study aimed to provide a realistic observation of survival by major site for 48,866 cancer patients treated at a tertiary cancer hospital in a rural area of China.

Methods

Patients with cancer registered between 2007 and 2017 in the Nantong rural area were followed up. The starting date for survival calculation was the date of the first diagnosis of cancer at the Nantong Tumor Hospital, and the closing date was December 31, 2020. Observed survival (OS) was analyzed according to ICD-10 site, sex, age, region, and hospitalization period using the life table method and compared using the Wilcoxon (Gehan) statistic.

Results

The overall 5-year OS rate was 40.48% for all 48,866 patients, 30.19% for males, and 51.90% for females. The top five cancer sites, accounting for 60.51% of the total cases, were the esophagus, lung, stomach, liver, and cervix, with 5-year OS rates of 33.72%, 18.64%, 32.10%, 19.04%, and 71.51%, respectively. The highest 5-year OS was observed in the thyroid (87.52%) and the lowest was in the pancreas (6.37%). Survival was significantly higher in younger patients than in older patients, with 5-year OSs of 69.26% and 19.84% in those aged 20-29 and 90-99 years, respectively. Five-year OSs improved significantly from 39.35% in 2007-2011 to 41.26% in 2012-2017.

Conclusion

Overall survival improved over the years, although the improvement at some sites was not significant. The observed survival varies from region to region, reflecting differences in the patterns of major sites, disparities in proportions of hospitalization, and demographic characteristics.

Serum creatinine/cystatin C ratio as a prognostic indicator for patients with colorectal cancer

Background

This study aimed to explore the relationship between creatinine/cystatin C ratio and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients undergoing surgical treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 975 CRC patients who underwent surgical resection from January 2012 to 2015. Restricted three-sample curve to display the non-linear relationship between PFS/OS and creatinine-cystatin C ratio. Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier method were used to evaluate the effect of the creatinine-cystatin C ratio on the survival of CRC patients. Prognostic variables with p-value ≤0.05 in multivariate analysis were used to construct prognostic nomograms. The receiver operator characteristic curve was used to compare the efficacy of prognostic nomograms and the traditional pathological stage.

Results

There was a negative linear relationship between creatinine/cystatin C ratio and adverse PFS in CRC patients. Patients with low creatinine/cystatin C ratio had significantly lower PFS/OS than those with high creatinine/cystatin C ratio (PFS, 50.8% vs. 63.9%, p = 0.002; OS, 52.5% vs. 68.9%, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that low creatinine/cystatin C ratio was an independent risk factor for PFS (HR=1.286, 95%CI = 1.007-1.642, p=0.044) and OS (HR=1.410, 95%CI=1.087-1.829, p=0.010) of CRC patients. The creatinine/cystatin C ratio-based prognostic nomograms have good predictive performance, with a concordance index above 0.7, which can predict the 1-5-year prognosis.

Conclusion

Creatinine/cystatin C ratio may be an effective prognostic marker for predicting PFS and OS in CRC patients, aid in pathological staging, and along with tumour markers help in-depth prognostic stratification in CRC patients.

Prognostic significance of sarcopenia diagnosed based on the anthropometric equation for progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer

Background

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of sarcopenia diagnosed based on anthropometric equations for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

A total of 1,441 CRC patients who underwent surgical treatment between January 2012 and December 2016 were enrolled in this study. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to validated anthropometric equations. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to estimate the survival curve. Cox proportional hazards regression models with forward selection were used to evaluate risk factors affecting the prognosis of CRC patients. R package "survival" was used to build the prognostic nomograms to predict 1-5 years of PFS and OS in CRC patients. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the prognostic nomogram.

Results

Two hundred and seventy-one patients (18.8%) were diagnosed with sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was significantly associated with advanced age, large tumor size, and high mortality. Compared with the non-sarcopenia patients, the PFS of sarcopenia patients was worse (5-year PFS, 48.34 vs. 58.80%, p = 0.003). Multivariate survival analysis showed that patients with sarcopenia had a higher risk (23.9%) of adverse PFS (HR, 1.239; 95%CI: 1.019-1.505, p = 0.031) than patients without sarcopenia. The OS of patients with sarcopenia was significantly worse than that of patients without sarcopenia (5-year OS: 50.92 vs. 61.62%, p = 0.001). In CRC patients, sarcopenia was independently associated with poor OS (HR: 1.273, 95%CI: 1.042-1.556, p < 0.001). Moreover, sarcopenia effectively differentiated the OS of CRC patients in the normal carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) subgroup but not in the high CEA subgroup. Notably, sarcopenia can provide effective prognostic stratification in CRC patients at different pathological stages. Nomograms that integrated prognostic features were built to predict the risk of adverse outcomes in CRC patients. The C-index and calibration curves showed that these nomograms had good prediction accuracy. Internal validation confirmed that our nomogram has wide application potential.

Conclusion

Sarcopenia diagnosed based on anthropometric equations is an independent risk factor for PFS and OS in CRC patients.

Risks and cancer associations of metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers: a 25-year retrospective study

Background

The situation of patients developing multiple primary cancers is becoming more frequent and graver. This study investigated the risks of developing second primary cancers that are related to first primary cancers, and the interval times of synchronous and metachronous multiple primary cancers.

Patients and methods

Retrospective data were retrieved from 109,054 patients aged ≥18 who were diagnosed with a first solid cancer and registered at Siriraj Cancer Center between 1991 and 2015. A two-month period between first- and second- primary cancers was used to differentiate metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers. The combinations of subsequent cancers and relative risks (RRs) of having multiple primary cancers versus having single primary cancer for the top-ten first and second primary cancers were examined. The RR was adjusted for age of the first primary cancer. A survival analysis of the time to second-primary-cancer development was performed.

Results

Multiple primary cancers were found in 1785 (1.63%) patients. Most (70.87%) second primary cancers occurred after 2 months of first breast, skin, colorectal, lung, head and neck, liver, male genital cancer–prostate, thyroid, and female genital cancer–non-uterine cancers, resulting in those cancers being classified as metachronous multiple primary cancer. After adjustment for age at first diagnosis, head and neck cancers had the highest metachronous association with second esophageal cancers (RR, 25.06; 95% CI, 13.41–50.77). Prostate cancer and second colorectal cancer also demonstrated a high metachronous association (RR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.25–3.05). A strong synchronous association was found between uterine and ovarian cancers (RR, 27.77; 95% CI, 17.97–43.63). The median time from the first uterine cancer to second-cancer development was 55 days.

Conclusions

The top-ten most frequent multiple primary cancers were the following: breast; liver; head and neck; colorectal; male genital cancer–prostate; skin; female genital cancer–uterine; thyroid; lung; and female genital cancer–non-uterine. Second primary cancers showed specific associations that depended on the first primary cancer. Physicians should be cognizant of the most common combinations and the interval times of metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers.