MODELING CHRONIC DISEASE PATIENT FLOWS DIVERTED FROM EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS TO PATIENT-CENTERED MEDICAL HOMES

Applications of System Dynamics Models in Chronic Disease Prevention: A Systematic Review

Introduction

Chronic disease is a serious health problem worldwide. Given that health care resources are limited, a comprehensive, effective, and affordable way is needed to provide insights to prevent chronic diseases. System dynamics models provide a comprehensive and systematic method that can predict results over time. These models can simulate and predict appropriate prevention measures for chronic diseases to determine the best practice.

Methods

Two researchers (Y.W., B.H.) independently searched databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase) for full-text articles published from January 2000 through February 2021. A PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) 2020–compliant search was carried out to review system dynamics models of chronic disease prevention. A total of 34 articles were included in our study.

Results

We divided the prevention measures of system dynamics models into 2 main categories: upstream prevention and downstream prevention. Upstream prevention measures include lifestyle (eg, tobacco control, balanced diet, mental health, moderate exercise), obesity prevention, and social factors. Downstream prevention measures include clinical treatment of chronic diseases. Results showed that effective upstream prevention measures could reduce the prevalence of chronic diseases, and downstream prevention measures could reduce the incidence of complications, improve quality of life, prolong life, save medical costs, and reduce mortality.

Conclusion

To our knowledge, our systematic review is the first to evaluate the application of system dynamics models in preventing chronic diseases. Such models can provide effective simulations. Hence, we can use system dynamics models to design and implement effective prevention measures for people with chronic diseases.

A systematic literature review of operational research methods for modelling patient flow and outcomes within community healthcare and other settings

An ambition of healthcare policy has been to move more acute services into community settings. This systematic literature review presents analysis of published operational research methods for modelling patient flow within community healthcare, and for modelling the combination of patient flow and outcomes in all settings. Assessed for inclusion at three levels - with the references from included papers also assessed - 25 "Patient flow within community care", 23 "Patient flow and outcomes" papers and 5 papers within the intersection are included for review. Comparisons are made between each paper's setting, definition of states, factors considered to influence flow, output measures and implementation of results. Common complexities and characteristics of community service models are discussed with directions for future work suggested. We found that in developing patient flow models for community services that use outcomes, transplant waiting list may have transferable benefits.