Evaluation of prognostic indexes in critical acute renal failure patients

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Acute Renal Failure

Mortality associated with acute renal failure (ARF) remains high despite of developments in therapy strategies and definition of different prognostic factors. Therefore, this study focused on to define new prognostic factors and especially regional characteristics of the ARF patients. One hundred fifteen ARF patients, diagnosed from November 1998 to May 2003, were included to this prospective and observational study. Clinical features, laboratory parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III scores and co-morbid conditions of the patients were examined. Clinical and laboratory data, and APACHE III scores were recorded at the first nephrology consult day. Thirty of the patients (26%) died. APACHE III scores, presence and the total number of co-morbid conditions and serum albumin levels at the time of first nephrology consultation were found as independent predictors of mortality. There was a negative correlation between APACHE III scores and serum albumin levels. Not only increased APACHE III score and presence of co-morbid conditions but also low serum albumin level was found as the predictors of mortality. However, only serum albumin level is seen as modifiable prognostic factor among these parameters. Therefore, further studies are necessary to determine the causes of hypoalbuminemia in patients with ARF and the effect of it’s effective treatment on patients outcome.

SAPS 3 scores at the start of renal replacement therapy predict mortality in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury

Patients can experience acute kidney injury and require renal replacement therapy at any time during their admission to intensive care units. Prognostic scores have been used to characterize and stratify patients by the severity of acute disease, but scores based on findings during the day of admission may not be reliable surrogate markers of the severity of acute illness in this population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of SAPS 3 and MPM(0)-III scores, determined at the start of renal replacement therapy, in 244 patients admitted to 11 units of three hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Continuous renal replacement therapy was used as first indication in 84% of these patients. Discrimination by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly better for SAPS 3 than for MPM(0)-III, as was the calibration measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Mortality prediction and calibration approached those eventually found when a customized equation of SAPS 3 for Central and South America was used. After adjusting for other relevant covariates in multivariate analyses, both higher prognostic scores and length of stay in the unit prior to the start of renal replacement therapy were the main predictive factors for hospital mortality. Our study shows that a customized SAPS 3 model was accurate in predicting mortality and seems a promising algorithm to characterize and stratify patients in clinical studies.

Clinical course and mortality risk factors in critically ill children requiring continuous renal replacement therapy

OBJECTIVE

To study the clinical course in children requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) and to analyse factors associated with mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Paediatric intensive care department of a tertiary university hospital.

PATIENTS

Critically ill children with CRRT were included in the study.

INTERVENTION

Continuous renal replacement therapy.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyse the influence of each factor on mortality. The ability of the PRISM, PIM II and PELOD severity of illness scores to predict mortality was tested using receiver-operating characteristic curve statistics. A total of 174 children aged between 1 month and 22 years were treated with CRRT. Mortality was 35.6%, and multiorgan failure and haemodynamic disturbances were the principal causes of death. Mortality was higher in children less than 12 months of age (44.7%; P = 0.037) and in patients with a diagnosis of sepsis (44.1%; P = 0.001). Haemodynamic disturbances at the time of starting CRRT (hypotension or need for adrenaline >0.6 microg/kg/min) and the presence of multiorgan failure were the factors associated with an increased risk of mortality. The PRISM scale was the severity score with the best predictive capacity, although all three scales underestimated the actual mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in children who require CRRT is high. Haemodynamic disturbances and the presence of multiorgan failure at the time of starting the technique are the factors associated with a higher mortality. The clinical severity scores underestimate mortality in children requiring CRRT.

Risk factors for death among critically ill patients with acute renal failure

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE

Acute renal failure is a common medical problem, with a high mortality rate. The aim of this work was to investigate the risk factors for death among critically ill patients with acute renal failure.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective cohort at the intensive care unit of Hospital Universitário Walter Cantídio, Fortaleza.

METHODS

Survivors and non-survivors were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to establish risk factors for death.

RESULTS

Acute renal failure occurred in 128 patients (33.5%), with mean age of 49 +/- 20 years (79 males; 62%). Death occurred in 80 (62.5%). The risk factors most frequently associated with death were hypotension, sepsis, nephrotoxic drug use, respiratory insufficiency, liver failure, hypovolemia, septic shock, multiple organ dysfunction, need for vasoactive drugs, need for mechanical ventilation, oliguria, hypoalbuminemia, metabolic acidosis and anemia. There were negative correlations between death and: prothrombin time, hematocrit, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, arterial pH, arterial bicarbonate and urine volume. From multivariate analysis, the independent risk factors for death were: need for mechanical ventilation (OR = 3.15; p = 0.03), hypotension (OR = 3.48; p = 0.02), liver failure (OR = 5.37; p = 0.02), low arterial bicarbonate (OR = 0.85; p = 0.005), oliguria (OR = 3.36; p = 0.009), vasopressor use (OR = 4.83; p = 0.004) and sepsis (OR = 6.14; p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant risk factors for death among patients with acute renal failure in intensive care units, which need to be identified at an early stage for early treatment.

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.

Spectrum of acute renal failure and factors predicting its outcome in an intensive care unit in India

Identification of factors causing acute renal failure (ARF) and its associated poor prognosis in critically ill patients can help in planning strategies to prevent ARF and to prioritize the utilization of sparse and expensive therapeutic modalities. Most of the studies in such patients have been done in the developed world, and similar data from the developing world is sparse. We analyzed 45 consecutive patients who developed ARF in the intensive care unit (ICU) during a 12-month period. Demographic and detailed biochemical profile, previous chronic illness, precipitating factors, number of failed organs, type of ARF (oliguric/nonoliguric), and need for and type of renal replacement therapy (RRT) received were recorded at the time of admission to ICU and during the course of illness. The mean age of these patients was 43.1 years, with 75.6% being males. Hypotension, sepsis, and use of nephrotoxic drugs were common precipitating factors for ARF in these patients. However, multiple precipitating factors were present in the majority (80%): 81.5% had at least one organ failure prior to development of ARF, 71.1% had oliguria, and 71.1% required RRT. Intermittent hemodialysis was the most common form of RRT given. Patient mortality was 64.4%, with 15 of the 16 surviving patients becoming dialysis independent. We observed an increase in mortality from 0% to 100%, depending on the number of failed organs from one to six. On comparing the predictor outcomes between survivors and nonsurvivors by multivariate analysis, only the number of failed organs at the time of ARF (2.6 +/- 0.9 vs. 4.5 +/- 0.8) and serum albumin < 3.0 g/dL were found to be statistically significant. To conclude, ARF in critically ill patients is multifactorial in origin and carries a high mortality. Mortality in these patients increases with increasing numbers of failed organs and with a serum albumin of < 3.0 g/dL.