Three modes of adaptive speciation in spatially structured populations

Unifying quantification methods for sexual selection and assortative mating using information theory

Sexual selection plays a crucial role in modern evolutionary theory, offering valuable insight into evolutionary patterns and species diversity. Recently, a comprehensive definition of sexual selection has been proposed, defining it as any selection that arises from fitness differences associated with nonrandom success in the competition for access to gametes for fertilization. Previous research on discrete traits demonstrated that non-random mating can be effectively quantified using Jeffreys (or symmetrized Kullback-Leibler) divergence, capturing information acquired through mating influenced by mutual mating propensities instead of random occurrences. This novel theoretical framework allows for detecting and assessing the strength of sexual selection and assortative mating. In this study, we aim to achieve two primary objectives. Firstly, we demonstrate the seamless alignment of the previous theoretical development, rooted in information theory and mutual mating propensity, with the aforementioned definition of sexual selection. Secondly, we extend the theory to encompass quantitative traits. Our findings reveal that sexual selection and assortative mating can be quantified effectively for quantitative traits by measuring the information gain relative to the random mating pattern. The connection of the information indices of sexual selection with the classical measures of sexual selection is established. Additionally, if mating traits are normally distributed, the measure capturing the underlying information of assortative mating is a function of the square of the correlation coefficient, taking values within the non-negative real number set [0, +∞). It is worth noting that the same divergence measure captures information acquired through mating for both discrete and quantitative traits. This is interesting as it provides a common context and can help simplify the study of sexual selection patterns.

Differentiating mechanism from outcome for ancestry-assortative mating in admixed human populations

Population genetic theory, and the empirical methods built upon it, often assume that individuals pair randomly for reproduction. However, natural populations frequently violate this assumption, which may potentially confound genome-wide association studies, selection scans, and demographic inference. Within several recently admixed human populations, empirical genetic studies have reported a correlation in global ancestry proportion between spouses, referred to as ancestry-assortative mating. Here, we use forward genomic simulations to link correlations in ancestry between mates to the underlying mechanistic mate-choice process. We consider the impacts of two types of mate-choice model, using either ancestry-based preferences or social groups as the basis for mate pairing. We find that multiple mate-choice models can produce the same correlations in ancestry proportion between spouses; however, we also highlight alternative analytic approaches and circumstances in which these models may be distinguished. With this work, we seek to highlight potential pitfalls when interpreting correlations in empirical data as evidence for a particular model of human mating practices, as well as to offer suggestions toward development of new best practices for analysis of human ancestry-assortative mating.

Resource Variation Within and Between Patches: Where Exploitation Competition, Local Adaptation, and Kin Selection Meet

AbstractIn patch- or habitat-structured populations, different processes can favor adaptive polymorphism at different scales. While spatial heterogeneity can generate spatially disruptive selection favoring variation between patches, local competition can lead to locally disruptive selection promoting variation within patches. So far, almost all theory has studied these two processes in isolation. Here, we use mathematical modeling to investigate how resource variation within and between habitats influences the evolution of variation in a consumer population where individuals compete in finite patches connected by dispersal. We find that locally and spatially disruptive selection typically act in concert, favoring polymorphism under a wider range of conditions than when in isolation. But when patches are small and dispersal between them is low, kin competition inhibits the emergence of polymorphism, especially when the latter is driven by local competition for resources. We further use our model to clarify what comparisons between trait and neutral genetic differentiation (Q ST / F ST comparisons) can tell about the nature of selection. Overall, our results help us understand the interaction between two major drivers of polymorphism: locally and spatially disruptive selection, and how this interaction is modulated by the unavoidable effects of kin selection under limited dispersal.

Changes in ecological conditions may influence intraguild competition: inferring interaction patterns of snow leopard with co-predators

Background

Large-scale changes in habitat conditions due to human modifications and climate change require management practices to consider how species communities can alter amidst these changes. Understanding species interactions across the gradient of space, anthropogenic pressure, and season provide the opportunity to anticipate possible dynamics in the changing scenarios. We studied the interspecific interactions of carnivore species in a high-altitude ecosystem over seasonal (summer and winter) and resource gradients (livestock grazing) to assess the impact of changing abiotic and biotic settings on coexistence.

Methods

The study was conducted in the Upper Bhagirathi basin, Western Himalaya, India. We analyzed around 4 years of camera trap monitoring data to understand seasonal spatial and temporal interactions of the snow leopard with common leopard and woolly wolf were assessed in the greater and trans-Himalayan habitats, respectively. We used two species occupancy models to assess spatial interactions, and circadian activity patterns were used to assess seasonal temporal overlap amongst carnivores. In addition, we examined scats to understand the commonalities in prey selection.

Results

The result showed that although snow leopard and wolves depend on the same limited prey species and show high temporal overlap, habitat heterogeneity and differential habitat use facilitate co-occurrence between these two predators. Snow leopard and common leopard were spatially independent in the summer. Conversely, the common leopard negatively influences the space use of snow leopard in the winter. Limited prey resources (lack of livestock), restricted space (due to snow cover), and similar activity patterns in winter might result in strong competition, causing these species to avoid each other on a spatial scale. The study showed that in addition to species traits and size, ecological settings also play a significant role in deciding the intensity of competition between large carnivores. Climate change and habitat shifts are predicted to increase the spatial overlap between snow leopard and co-predators in the future. In such scenarios, wolves and snow leopards may coexist in a topographically diverse environment, provided sufficient prey are available. However, shifts in tree line might lead to severe competition between common leopards and snow leopards, which could be detrimental to the latter. Further monitoring of resource use across abiotic and biotic environments may improve our understanding of how changing ecological conditions can affect resource partitioning between snow leopards and predators.

A Simulation Study of the Ecological Speciation Conditions in the Galician Marine Snail Littorina saxatilis

In the last years, the interest in evolutionary divergence at small spatial scales has increased and so did the study of speciation caused by ecologically based divergent natural selection. The evolutionary interplay between gene flow and local adaptation can lead to low-dispersal locally adapted specialists. When this occurs, the evolutionary interplay between gene flow and local adaptation could eventually lead to speciation. The L. saxatilis system consists of two ecotypes displaying a microhabitat-associated intraspecific dimorphism along the wave-exposed rocky shores of Galicia. Despite being a well-known system, the dynamics of the ecotype formation remain unclear and cannot be studied from empirical evidence alone. In this study, individual-based simulations were used to incorporate relevant ecological, spatial, and genetic information, to check different evolutionary scenarios that could evolve non-random mating preferences and finally may facilitate speciation. As main results, we observed the evolution of intermediate values of choice which matches the estimates from empirical data of L. saxatilis in Galician shores and coincides with previous theoretical outcomes. Also, the use of the mating correlation as a proxy for assortative mating led to spuriously inferring greater reproductive isolation in the middle habitat than in the others, which does not happen when directly considering the choice values from the simulations. We also corroborate the well-known fact that the occurrence of speciation is influenced by the strength of selection. Taken together, this means, also according to other L. saxatilis systems, that speciation is not an immediate consequence of local divergent selection and mating preferences, but a fine tuning among several factors including the ecological conditions in the shore levels, the selection strength, the mate choice stringency, and cost to choosiness. The L. saxatilis system could correspond to a case of incomplete reproductive isolation, where the choice intensity is intermediate and local adaptation within the habitat is strong. These results support previous interpretations of the L. saxatilis model system and indicate that further empirical studies would be interesting to test whether the mate choice mechanism functions as a similarity-like mechanism as has been shown in other littorinids.

Eco-Evolutionary Feedbacks and the Maintenance of Metacommunity Diversity in a Changing Environment

The presence and strength of resource competition can influence how organisms adaptively respond to environmental change. Selection may thus reflect a balance between two forces, adaptation to an environmental optimum and evolution to avoid strong competition. While this phenomenon has previously been explored in the context of single communities, its implications for eco-evolutionary dynamics at the metacommunity scale are largely unknown. We developed a simulation model for the evolution of a quantitative trait that influences both an organism's carrying capacity and its intra- and interspecific competitive ability. In the model, multiple species inhabit a three-patch landscape, and we investigated the effect of varying the connectivity level among patches, the presence and pace of directional environmental change, and the strength of competition between the species. Our model produced some patterns previously observed in evolving metacommunity models, such as species sorting and community monopolization. However, we found that species sorting was diminished even at low rates of dispersal and was influenced by competition strength, and that monopolization was observed only when environmental change was very rapid. We also detected an eco-evolutionary feedback loop between local phenotypic evolution at one site and competition at another site, which maintains species diversity in some conditions. The existence of a feedback loop maintained by dispersal indicates that eco-evolutionary dynamics in communities operate at a landscape scale.

Establishment process of a magic trait allele subject to both divergent selection and assortative mating

Sexual selection and divergent selection are among the major driving forces of reproductive isolation, which could eventually result in speciation. A magic trait is defined such that a single trait is subject to both divergent selection and mate choice through phenotype-based assortative mating. We are here interested in the evolutionary behavior of alleles at a genetic locus responsible for a magic trait in a finite population. We assume that, in a pair of homogeneous subpopulations, a mutant allele arises at the magic trait locus, and theoretically obtain the probability that the new allele establishes in the population, or the establishment probability. We also show an analytical expression for the trajectory of allele frequency along the establishment, from which the time required for the establishment is obtained, or the establishment time. Under this model, divergent selection simply favors the new allele to fix where it is beneficial, whereas assortative mating works against rare alleles. It is theoretically demonstrated that the fate of the new allele is determined by the relative contributions of the two selective forces, divergent selection and assortative mating, when the allele is rare so that the two selective forces counteract. Our theoretical results for the establishment probability and time allow us to understand the relative role of random genetic drift in the establishment process of a magic trait allele in a finite population.

How Does Joint Evolution of Consumer Traits Affect Resource Specialization?

Consumers regularly experience trade-offs in their ability to find, handle, and digest different resources. Evolutionary ecologists recognized the significance of this observation for the evolution and maintenance of biological diversity long ago and continue to elaborate on the conditions under which to expect one or several specialists, generalists, or combinations thereof. Existing theory based on a single evolving trait predicts that specialization requires strong trade-offs such that generalists perform relatively poorly, while weak trade-offs favor a single generalist. Here, we show that this simple dichotomy does not hold true under joint evolution of two or more foraging traits. In this case, the boundary between trade-offs resulting in resource specialists and resource generalists is shifted toward weaker trade-off curvatures. In particular, weak trade-offs can result in evolutionary branching, leading to the evolution of two coexisting resource specialists, while the evolution of a single resource generalist requires particularly weak trade-offs. These findings are explained by performance benefits due to epistatic trait interactions enjoyed by phenotypes that are specialized in more than one trait for the same resource.

Clade diversification dynamics and the biotic and abiotic controls of speciation and extinction rates

How ecological interactions, genetic processes, and environmental variability jointly shape the evolution of species diversity remains a challenging problem in biology. We developed an individual-based model of clade diversification to predict macroevolutionary dynamics when resource competition, genetic differentiation, and landscape fluctuations interact. Diversification begins with a phase of geographic adaptive radiation. Extinction rates rise sharply at the onset of the next phase. In this phase of niche self-structuring, speciation and extinction processes, albeit driven by biotic mechanisms (competition and hybridization), have essentially constant rates, determined primarily by the abiotic pace of landscape dynamics. The final phase of diversification begins when intense competition prevents dispersing individuals from establishing new populations. Species’ ranges shrink, causing negative diversity-dependence of speciation rates. These results show how ecological and microevolutionary processes shape macroevolutionary dynamics and rates; they caution against the notion of ecological limits to diversity, and suggest new directions for the phylogenetic analysis of diversification.

The history and patterns of species diversity are shaped by a variety of ecological and evolutionary factors. Here, the authors develop a computational model to predict clade diversification dynamics and rates of speciation and extinction under the influences of resource competition, genetic differentiation, and random landscape fluctuation.

The Limits to Parapatric Speciation II: Strengthening a Preexisting Genetic Barrier to Gene Flow in Parapatry

By encompassing the whole continuum between allopatric and sympatric scenarios, parapatric speciation includes many potential scenarios for the evolution of new species. Here, we investigate how a genetic barrier to gene flow, that relies on a single postzygotic genetic incompatibility, may further evolve under ongoing migration. We consider a continent island model with three loci involved in pairwise Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities (DMIs). Using an analytic approach, we derive the conditions for invasion of a new mutation and its consequences for the strength and stability of the initial genetic barrier. Our results show that the accumulation of genetic incompatibilities in the presence of gene flow is under strong selective constraints. In particular, preexisting incompatibilities do not always facilitate the invasion of further barrier genes. If new mutations do invade, they will often weaken or destroy the barrier rather than strengthening it. We conclude that migration is highly effective at disrupting the so-called “snowball effect”, the accelerated accumulation of DMIs that has been described for allopatric populations en route to reproductive isolation.

The Role of Sexual Selection in Local Adaptation and Speciation

Sexual selection plays several intricate and complex roles in the related processes of local adaptation and speciation. In some cases sexual selection can promote these processes, but in others it can be inhibitory. We present theoretical and empirical evidence supporting these dual effects of sexual selection during local adaptation, allopatric speciation, and speciation with gene flow. Much of the empirical evidence for sexual selection promoting speciation is suggestive rather than conclusive; we present what would constitute strong evidence for sexual selection driving speciation. We conclude that although there is ample evidence that sexual selection contributes to the speciation process, it is very likely to do so only in concert with natural selection.

Missing in action: Species competition is a neglected predictor variable in species distribution modelling

The central role of species competition in shaping community structure in ecosystems is well appreciated amongst ecologists. However species competition is a consistently missing variable in Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). This study presents results of our attempt to incorporate species competition in SDMs. We used a suit of predictor variables including Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), as well as distance from roads, settlements and water, fire frequency and distance from the nearest herbivore sighting (of selected herbivores) to model individual habitat preferences of five grazer species (buffalo, warthog, waterbuck, wildebeest and zebra) with the Ensemble SDM algorithm for Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe. Our results showed that distance from the nearest animal sighting (a proxy for competition among grazers) was the best predictor of the potential distribution of buffalo, wildebeest and zebra but the second best predictor for warthog and waterbuck. Our findings provide evidence to that competition is an important predictor of grazer species' potential distribution. These findings suggest that species distribution modelling that neglects species competition may be inadequate in explaining the potential distribution of species. Therefore our findings encourage the inclusion of competition in SDM as well as potentially igniting discussions that may lead to improving the predictive power of future SDM efforts.

Divergence and evolution of assortative mating in a polygenic trait model of speciation with gene flow

Assortative mating is an important driver of speciation in populations with gene flow and is predicted to evolve under certain conditions in few-locus models. However, the evolution of assortment is less understood for mating based on quantitative traits, which are often characterized by high genetic variability and extensive linkage disequilibrium between trait loci. We explore this scenario for a two-deme model with migration, by considering a single polygenic trait subject to divergent viability selection across demes, as well as assortative mating and sexual selection within demes, and investigate how trait divergence is shaped by various evolutionary forces. Our analysis reveals the existence of sharp thresholds of assortment strength, at which divergence increases dramatically. We also study the evolution of assortment via invasion of modifiers of mate discrimination and show that the ES assortment strength has an intermediate value under a range of migration-selection parameters, even in diverged populations, due to subtle effects which depend sensitively on the extent of phenotypic variation within these populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the polygenic trait is studied using the hypergeometric and infinitesimal models. We further investigate the sensitivity of our results to the assumptions of the hypergeometric model, using individual-based simulations.

Speciation in peripheral populations: effects of drift load and mating systems

Speciation in peripheral populations has long been considered one of the most plausible scenarios for speciation with gene flow. In this study, however we identify two additional problems of peripatric speciation, as compared to the parapatric case, that may impede the completion of the speciation process for most parameter regions. First, with (predominantly) unidirectional gene flow, there is no selection pressure to evolve assortative mating on the continent. We discuss the implications of this for different mating schemes. Second, genetic load can build up in small populations. This can lead to extinction of the peripheral species, or generate selection pressure for lower assortative mating to avoid inbreeding. In this case, either a stable equilibrium with intermediate assortment evolves or there is cycling between phases of hybridization and phases of complete isolation.

Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales

The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

The Biogeography of Adaptive Radiations and the Geographic Overlap of Sister Species

The biogeography of speciation and what can be learned about the past mode of speciation from current biogeography of sister species are recurrent problems in evolution. We used a trait- and individual-based, eco-evolutionary model to simulate adaptive radiations and recorded the geographical overlap of species during and after evolutionary branching (speciation). We compared the spatial overlap among sister species in the fully saturated community with the overlap at the speciation event. The mean geographic overlap at speciation varied continuously from complete (sympatry) to none (allopatry), depending on local and regional environmental heterogeneity and the rate of dispersal. The distribution of overlap was, however, in some cases considerably bimodal. This tendency was most expressed at large values of regional heterogeneity, corresponding to sharp environmental contrasts. The mean geographic overlap also varied during the course of a radiation, sometimes with a consistent negative trend over time. The speciations that resulted in currently observable end community sister species were therefore not an unbiased sample of all speciations throughout the radiation. Postspeciation range shifts (causing increased overlap) occurred most frequently when dispersal was high or when local habitat heterogeneity was low. Our results help us understand how the patterns of geographic mode of speciation emerge. We also show the difficulty in inferring the geographical speciation mode from phylogenies and the biogeography of extant species.

Geography, assortative mating, and the effects of sexual selection on speciation with gene flow

Theoretical and empirical research on the evolution of reproductive isolation have both indicated that the effects of sexual selection on speciation with gene flow are quite complex. As part of this special issue on the contributions of women to basic and applied evolutionary biology, I discuss my work on this question in the context of a broader assessment of the patterns of sexual selection that lead to, versus inhibit, the speciation process, as derived from theoretical research. In particular, I focus on how two factors, the geographic context of speciation and the mechanism leading to assortative mating, interact to alter the effect that sexual selection through mate choice has on speciation. I concentrate on two geographic contexts: sympatry and secondary contact between two geographically separated populations that are exchanging migrants and two mechanisms of assortative mating: phenotype matching and separate preferences and traits. I show that both of these factors must be considered for the effects of sexual selection on speciation to be inferred.

Divergence by depth in an oceanic fish

Despite the striking physical and environmental gradients associated with depth variation in the oceans, relatively little is known about their impact on population diversification, adaptation and speciation. Changes in light associated with increasing depth are likely to alter the visual environment of organisms, and adaptive changes in visual systems may be expected. The pelagic beaked redfish, Sebastes mentella, exhibits depth-associated patterns of substructure in the central North Atlantic, with a widely distributed shallow-pelagic population inhabiting waters between 250 and 550 m depth and a deep-pelagic population dwelling between 550 and 800 m. Here we performed a molecular genetic investigation of samples from fish collected from ‘shallow’ and ‘deep’ populations, using the mitochondrial control region and the gene coding for the visual-pigment rhodopsin. We identify patterns suggestive of potential adaptation to different depths, by detecting a specific amino acid replacement at the rhodopsin gene. Mitochondrial DNA results reflect a scenario of long-term demographic independence between the two S. mentella groups, and raise the possibility that these ‘stocks’ may in fact be two incipient species.