Dispersal Increases the Resilience of Tropical Savanna and Forest Distributions

Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna-forest domain

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest-savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna-forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.

Temporal variability can promote migration between habitats

Understanding the conditions that promote the evolution of migration is important in ecology and evolution. When environments are fixed and there is one most favorable site, migration to other sites lowers overall growth rate and is not favored. Here we ask, can environmental variability favor migration when there is one best site on average? Previous work suggests that the answer is yes, but a general and precise answer remained elusive. Here we establish new, rigorous inequalities to show (and use simulations to illustrate) how stochastic growth rate can increase with migration when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites. The effect of migration between sites on the overall stochastic growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth rates and the variance of the fluctuating difference in growth rates. When fluctuations (variance) are large, a population can benefit from bursts of higher growth in sites that are worse on average. Such bursts become more probable as the between-site variance increases. Our results apply to many (≥ 2) sites, and reveal an interplay between the length of paths between sites, the average differences in site-specific growth rates, and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for evolutionary biology as they provide conditions for departure from the reduction principle, and for ecological dynamics: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space determine the importance of migration.

Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesized mechanism for such bistability is feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches. Theoretical models have largely implemented this mechanism implicitly, by assuming a threshold dependence of fire spread on flammable vegetation. Here, we show how the nonlinear dynamics and bistability emerge spontaneously, without assuming equations or thresholds for fire spread. We find that the forest geometry causes the nonlinearity that induces bistability. We demonstrate this in three steps. First, we model forest and fire as interacting contagion processes on grass patches, showing that spatial structure emerges due to two counteracting effects on the forest perimeter: forest expansion by dispersal and forest erosion by fires originating in adjacent grassland. Then, we derive a landscape-scale balance equation in which these two effects link forest geometry and dynamics: Forest expands proportionally to its perimeter, while it shrinks proportionally to its perimeter weighted by adjacent grassland area. Finally, we show that these perimeter quantities introduce nonlinearity in our balance equation and lead to bistability. Relying on the link between structure and dynamics, we propose a forest resilience indicator that could be used for targeted conservation or restoration.

The absence of alternative stable states in vegetation cover of northeastern India

Globally, forests and savannah are shown to be alternative stable states for intermediate rainfall regimes. This has implications for how these ecosystems respond to changing rainfall conditions. However, we know little about the occurrence of alternative stable states in forest ecosystems in India. In this study, we investigate the possibility of alternative stable states in the vegetation cover of northeastern India, which is a part of the Eastern Himalaya and the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspots. To do so, we construct the so-called state diagram, by plotting frequency distributions of vegetation cover as a function of mean annual precipitation (MAP). We use remotely sensed satellite data of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) as a proxy for vegetation cover (at 1 km resolution). We find that EVI exhibits unimodal distribution across a wide range of MAP. Specifically, EVI increases monotonically in the range 1000-2000 mm of MAP, after which it plateaus. This range of MAP corresponds to the vegetation transitional zone (1200-3700 m), whereas MAP greater than 2000 mm covers the larger extent of the tropical forest (less than or equal to 1200 m) of northeast India. In other words, we find no evidence for alternative stable states in vegetation cover or forest states at coarser scales in northeast India.

Impulsive Fire Disturbance in a Savanna Model: Tree-Grass Coexistence States, Multiple Stable System States, and Resilience

Savanna ecosystems are shaped by the frequency and intensity of regular fires. We model savannas via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) encoding a one-sided inhibitory Lotka-Volterra interaction between trees and grass. By applying fire as a discrete disturbance, we create an impulsive dynamical system that allows us to identify the impact of variation in fire frequency and intensity. The model exhibits three different bistability regimes: between savanna and grassland; two savanna states; and savanna and woodland. The impulsive model reveals rich bifurcation structures in response to changes in fire intensity and frequency-structures that are largely invisible to analogous ODE models with continuous fire. In addition, by using the amount of grass as an example of a socially valued function of the system state, we examine the resilience of the social value to different disturbance regimes. We find that large transitions ("tipping") in the valued quantity can be triggered by small changes in disturbance regime.

Dispersal limitation and fire feedbacks maintain mesic savannas in Madagascar

Madagascar is regarded by some as one of the most degraded landscapes on Earth, with estimates suggesting that 90% of forests have been lost to indigenous Tavy farming. However, the extent of this degradation has been challenged: paleoecological data, phylogeographic analysis, and species richness indicate that pyrogenic savannas in central Madagascar predate human arrival, even though rainfall is sufficient to allow forest expansion into central Madagascar. These observations raise a question-if savannas in Madagascar are not anthropogenic, how then are they maintained in regions where the climate can support forest? Observation reveals that the savanna-forest boundary coincides with a dispersal barrier-the escarpment of the Central Plateau. Using a stepping-stone model, we show that in a limited dispersal landscape, a stable savanna-forest boundary can form because of fire-vegetation feedbacks. This phenomenon, referred to as range pinning, could explain why eastern lowland forests have not expanded into the mesic savannas of the Central Highlands. This work challenges the view that highland savannas in Madagascar are derived by human-lit fires and, more importantly, suggests that partial dispersal barriers and strong nonlinear feedbacks can pin biogeographical boundaries over a wide range of environmental conditions, providing a temporary buffer against climate change.