Epidemiology of Human Longevity: The Search for Appropriate Methodology

Season of birth and exceptional longevity: comparative study of american centenarians, their siblings, and spouses

This study explores the effects of month of birth (a proxy for early-life environmental influences) on the chances of survival to age 100. Months of birth for 1,574 validated centenarians born in the United States in 1880-1895 were compared to the same information obtained for centenarians' 10,885 shorter-lived siblings and 1,083 spouses. Comparison was conducted using a within-family analysis by the method of conditional logistic regression, which allows researchers to control for unobserved shared childhood or adulthood environment and common genetic background. It was found that months of birth have significant long-lasting effect on survival to age 100: siblings born in September-November have higher odds to become centenarians compared to siblings born in March. A similar month-of-birth pattern was found for centenarian spouses. These results support the idea of early-life programming of human aging and longevity.

Estimation of a structural model of the determinants of neonatal mortality in Hungary, 1984-88 and 1994-98

We developed and evaluated a structural model of the determinants of neonatal mortality in Hungary that embodies the causal mechanisms by which its proximate and indirect determinants--socio-economic, behavioural, and biological--are related. The statistical model used distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous variables and allows the causal effect of each to be correctly estimated. Unobserved variables are integrated into the model, which was tested using Hungarian data for the periods 1984-88 and 1994-98. The principal findings are as follows: weight at birth and duration of gestation are the most important of the (direct) causal determinants of neonatal mortality. Mother's age has an indirect and detrimental effect: when mothers are older than 30 years of age, the risk of lower birth weight or multiple births and, in consequence, neonatal mortality is increased. Father's age has no direct or indirect causal effect on neonatal mortality.

Are reproductive and somatic senescence coupled in humans? Late, but not early, reproduction correlated with longevity in historical Sami women

Evolutionary theory of senescence emphasizes the importance of intense selection on early reproduction owing to the declining force of natural selection with age that constrains lifespan. In humans, recent studies have, however, suggested that late-life mortality might be more closely related to late rather than early reproduction, although the role of late reproduction on fitness remains unclear. We examined the association between early and late reproduction with longevity in historical post-reproductive Sami women. We also estimated the strength of natural selection on early and late reproduction using path analysis, and the effect of reproductive timing on offspring survival to adulthood and maternal risk of dying at childbirth. We found that natural selection favoured both earlier start and later cessation of reproduction, and higher total fecundity. Maternal age at childbirth was not related to offspring or maternal survival. Interestingly, females who produced their last offspring at advanced age also lived longest, while age at first reproduction and total fecundity were unrelated to female longevity. Our results thus suggest that reproductive and somatic senescence may have been coupled in these human populations, and that selection could have favoured late reproduction. We discuss alternative hypotheses for the mechanisms which might have promoted the association between late reproduction and longevity.

Hérédité et longévité au Québec ancien*

Par l’entremise du Registre de la population du Québec ancien (RPQA), banque de données élaborée dans le cadre du Programme de recherche en démographie historique, nous avons observé l’existence d’une composante familiale de la longévité. En effet, l’âge au décès des parents semble influencer l’âge au décès de leurs fils et filles, particulièrement pour les parents décédés après 70 ans. Nous avons aussi observé une convergence significative de l’âge au décès dans les fratries. Cependant, il existe également une relation entre les âges au décès des conjoints, ce qui laisse supposer que la composante familiale est due à la part environnementale de l’héritabilité plutôt qu’à la part génétique.

Genealogical data and the biodemography of human longevity

Biodemography of human longevity is an emerging interdisciplinary field of sociobiological research with deep historical roots. Two research questions are examined in this article: (1) What evidence is there for the familial transmission of human longevity?, and (2) what are the effects of parental age at reproduction on offspring longevity, and in particular, are there long-term adverse health consequences associated with the trend toward delayed reproduction? The ability of scientists to conduct biodemographic studies depends not only on merging theoretical and methodological elements from the biological and demographic/actuarial sciences, but unique sources of data and statistical methods must also be developed. In this article we describe how gencalogical data have been used for over a century to explore basic questions about human longevity, and how similar kinds of data now being developed are driving the formation of new testable research hypotheses in the field of biodemography.

Parents' age at birth of their offspring and child survival

This study presents some new results on parental age as a risk factor for child survival. The study is based on individual registration forms for live births and infant deaths collected in Hungary from 1984 to 1988. Logistic regression models have been fitted for early neonatal and neonatal mortality on the one hand, and post-neonatal mortality on the other hand. Children of older males and females have significantly higher early neonatal and neonatal mortality rates compared to those of younger males and females. The impact of age of both parents remains, however, slighter than that of other biological characteristics such as previous number of fetal deaths, induced abortions, or live births. The authors discuss possible biological explanations.

Early programming of adult longevity: demographic and experimental studies

It is supposed that longevity might be programmed by early life exposures. We had carried out demographic and experimental researches for the examination of the possibility of longevity programming. In demographic study, the recorded deaths in Kiev (Ukraine) between 1990 and 2000 (51,503 men and 50,131 women) were used. Age at death was strongly associated with month of birth. Subjects born in the middle of year (April-July) had the lowest longevity. Increasing longevity was observed with each successive birth-month in the second half of the year, with a peak longevity for births in December. To research of the mechanisms responsible for longevity programming, study of adult D. melanogaster DNA repair capacity after irradiation at the egg stage was carried out, using marker such as DNA strand breaks. Insects irradiated in low doses (0.50 and 0.75 Gy) had extended life span and increased stability to S1 nuclease treatment. The probable explanation of observed postponed effects might be the long-term modulation of certain (possibly repair) genes activity. We hypothesize that life-extending effects of different anti-aging treatments might be a consequence of their unspecific (hormetic) action, rather then specific (geroprotector) action on the some aging-related processes, and induction an "transcriptional reprogramming" may be a key mechanism of the longevity programming and artificial life extension.

Living longer--but better?

The highest attained age has increased by about 20 years since the beginning of the 19th century. In the course of the 1990s, more than ten individuals reached 115 years or more, including Jeanne Calment who attained the age of 122 years. In low-mortality countries, the number of centenarians has doubled every decade since 1950. This dramatic increase was mainly due to periodical effects related to the drastic fall in mortality among the elderly. The fact that centenarians are survivors does not mean that they are healthy. A high prevalence of comorbidity is found, and many centenarians have survived major diseases thanks to medical treatment and surgery. It is, however, possible that the comorbidity is less serious than in younger elderly. Certain personality traits may also be important in surviving health-threatening conditions. Furthermore, a number of biological and cognitive functions seem to be well-preserved in several centenarians. The influence of the apoE-gene and other genes involved in fundamental mechanisms illustrates that with advancing age and increasing mortality even small risks may have a substantial effect on survival to 100 years. A small proportion of long-livers may be considered as relatively autonomous, and this proportion will probably increase in the future. We are living longer and seem to postpone the terminal dependent phase to higher ages. Longevity may thus be perceived as part of our postmodern condition with its mix of pleasure and suffering.