Parameter estimation for a mathematical model of the cell cycle in frog eggs

Toward a Logic of the Organism: A Process Philosophical Consideration

Mathematical models applied in contemporary theoretical and systems biology are based on some implicit ontological assumptions about the nature of organisms. This article aims to show that real organisms reveal a logic of internal causality transcending the tacit logic of biological modeling. Systems biology has focused on models consisting of static systems of differential equations operating with fixed control parameters that are measured or fitted to experimental data. However, the structure of real organisms is a highly dynamic process, the internal causality of which can only be captured by continuously changing systems of equations. In addition, in real physiological settings kinetic parameters can vary by orders of magnitude, i.e., organisms vary the value of internal quantities that in models are represented by fixed control parameters. Both the plasticity of organisms and the state dependence of kinetic parameters adds indeterminacy to the picture and asks for a new statistical perspective. This requirement could be met by the arising Biological Statistical Mechanics project, which promises to do more justice to the nature of real organisms than contemporary modeling. This article concludes that Biological Statistical Mechanics allows for a wider range of organismic ontologies than does the tacitly followed ontology of contemporary theoretical and systems biology, which are implicitly and explicitly based on systems theory.

Parameter estimation in models of biological oscillators: an automated regularised estimation approach

BACKGROUND

Dynamic modelling is a core element in the systems biology approach to understanding complex biosystems. Here, we consider the problem of parameter estimation in models of biological oscillators described by deterministic nonlinear differential equations. These problems can be extremely challenging due to several common pitfalls: (i) a lack of prior knowledge about parameters (i.e. massive search spaces), (ii) convergence to local optima (due to multimodality of the cost function), (iii) overfitting (fitting the noise instead of the signal) and (iv) a lack of identifiability. As a consequence, the use of standard estimation methods (such as gradient-based local ones) will often result in wrong solutions. Overfitting can be particularly problematic, since it produces very good calibrations, giving the impression of an excellent result. However, overfitted models exhibit poor predictive power. Here, we present a novel automated approach to overcome these pitfalls. Its workflow makes use of two sequential optimisation steps incorporating three key algorithms: (1) sampling strategies to systematically tighten the parameter bounds reducing the search space, (2) efficient global optimisation to avoid convergence to local solutions, (3) an advanced regularisation technique to fight overfitting. In addition, this workflow incorporates tests for structural and practical identifiability.

RESULTS

We successfully evaluate this novel approach considering four difficult case studies regarding the calibration of well-known biological oscillators (Goodwin, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Repressilator and a metabolic oscillator). In contrast, we show how local gradient-based approaches, even if used in multi-start fashion, are unable to avoid the above-mentioned pitfalls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach results in more efficient estimations (thanks to the bounding strategy) which are able to escape convergence to local optima (thanks to the global optimisation approach). Further, the use of regularisation allows us to avoid overfitting, resulting in more generalisable calibrated models (i.e. models with greater predictive power).

A framework for scalable parameter estimation of gene circuit models using structural information

Motivation: Systematic and scalable parameter estimation is a key to construct complex gene regulatory models and to ultimately facilitate an integrative systems biology approach to quantitatively understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning gene regulation.

Results: Here, we report a novel framework for efficient and scalable parameter estimation that focuses specifically on modeling of gene circuits. Exploiting the structure commonly found in gene circuit models, this framework decomposes a system of coupled rate equations into individual ones and efficiently integrates them separately to reconstruct the mean time evolution of the gene products. The accuracy of the parameter estimates is refined by iteratively increasing the accuracy of numerical integration using the model structure. As a case study, we applied our framework to four gene circuit models with complex dynamics based on three synthetic datasets and one time series microarray data set. We compared our framework to three state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods and found that our approach consistently generated higher quality parameter solutions efficiently. Although many general-purpose parameter estimation methods have been applied for modeling of gene circuits, our results suggest that the use of more tailored approaches to use domain-specific information may be a key to reverse engineering of complex biological systems.

Availability:http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/Pages/Software.aspx

Contact:xin.gao@kaust.edu.sa

Supplementary information:Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Optimal experiment selection for parameter estimation in biological differential equation models

BACKGROUND

Parameter estimation in biological models is a common yet challenging problem. In this work we explore the problem for gene regulatory networks modeled by differential equations with unknown parameters, such as decay rates, reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and Hill coefficients. We explore the question to what extent parameters can be efficiently estimated by appropriate experimental selection.

RESULTS

A minimization formulation is used to find the parameter values that best fit the experiment data. When the data is insufficient, the minimization problem often has many local minima that fit the data reasonably well. We show that selecting a new experiment based on the local Fisher Information of one local minimum generates additional data that allows one to successfully discriminate among the many local minima. The parameters can be estimated to high accuracy by iteratively performing minimization and experiment selection. We show that the experiment choices are roughly independent of which local minima is used to calculate the local Fisher Information.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that by an appropriate choice of experiments, one can, in principle, efficiently and accurately estimate all the parameters of gene regulatory network. In addition, we demonstrate that appropriate experiment selection can also allow one to restrict model predictions without constraining the parameters using many fewer experiments. We suggest that predicting model behaviors and inferring parameters represent two different approaches to model calibration with different requirements on data and experimental cost.

Simulating quantitative cellular responses using asynchronous threshold Boolean network ensembles

BACKGROUND

With increasing knowledge about the potential mechanisms underlying cellular functions, it is becoming feasible to predict the response of biological systems to genetic and environmental perturbations. Due to the lack of homogeneity in living tissues it is difficult to estimate the physiological effect of chemicals, including potential toxicity. Here we investigate a biologically motivated model for estimating tissue level responses by aggregating the behavior of a cell population. We assume that the molecular state of individual cells is independently governed by discrete non-deterministic signaling mechanisms. This results in noisy but highly reproducible aggregate level responses that are consistent with experimental data.

RESULTS

We developed an asynchronous threshold Boolean network simulation algorithm to model signal transduction in a single cell, and then used an ensemble of these models to estimate the aggregate response across a cell population. Using published data, we derived a putative crosstalk network involving growth factors and cytokines - i.e., Epidermal Growth Factor, Insulin, Insulin like Growth Factor Type 1, and Tumor Necrosis Factor α - to describe early signaling events in cell proliferation signal transduction. Reproducibility of the modeling technique across ensembles of Boolean networks representing cell populations is investigated. Furthermore, we compare our simulation results to experimental observations of hepatocytes reported in the literature.

CONCLUSION

A systematic analysis of the results following differential stimulation of this model by growth factors and cytokines suggests that: (a) using Boolean network ensembles with asynchronous updating provides biologically plausible noisy individual cellular responses with reproducible mean behavior for large cell populations, and (b) with sufficient data our model can estimate the response to different concentrations of extracellular ligands. Our results suggest that this approach is both quantitative, allowing statistical verification and calibration, and extensible, allowing modification and revision as guided by experimental evidence. The simulation methodology is part of the US EPA Virtual Liver, which is investigating the effects of everyday contaminants on living tissues. Future models will incorporate additional crosstalk surrounding proliferation as well as the putative effects of xenobiotics on these signaling cascades within hepatocytes.

Model reduction using piecewise-linear approximations preserves dynamic properties of the carbon starvation response in Escherichia coli

The adaptation of the bacterium Escherichia coli to carbon starvation is controlled by a large network of biochemical reactions involving genes, mRNAs, proteins, and signalling molecules. The dynamics of these networks is difficult to analyze, notably due to a lack of quantitative information on parameter values. To overcome these limitations, model reduction approaches based on quasi-steady-state (QSS) and piecewise-linear (PL) approximations have been proposed, resulting in models that are easier to handle mathematically and computationally. These approximations are not supposed to affect the capability of the model to account for essential dynamical properties of the system, but the validity of this assumption has not been systematically tested. In this paper, we carry out such a study by evaluating a large and complex PL model of the carbon starvation response in E. coli using an ensemble approach. The results show that, in comparison with conventional nonlinear models, the PL approximations generally preserve the dynamics of the carbon starvation response network, although with some deviations concerning notably the quantitative precision of the model predictions. This encourages the application of PL models to the qualitative analysis of bacterial regulatory networks, in situations where the reference time scale is that of protein synthesis and degradation.

When the optimal is not the best: parameter estimation in complex biological models

BACKGROUND

The vast computational resources that became available during the past decade enabled the development and simulation of increasingly complex mathematical models of cancer growth. These models typically involve many free parameters whose determination is a substantial obstacle to model development. Direct measurement of biochemical parameters in vivo is often difficult and sometimes impracticable, while fitting them under data-poor conditions may result in biologically implausible values.

RESULTS

We discuss different methodological approaches to estimate parameters in complex biological models. We make use of the high computational power of the Blue Gene technology to perform an extensive study of the parameter space in a model of avascular tumor growth. We explicitly show that the landscape of the cost function used to optimize the model to the data has a very rugged surface in parameter space. This cost function has many local minima with unrealistic solutions, including the global minimum corresponding to the best fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The case studied in this paper shows one example in which model parameters that optimally fit the data are not necessarily the best ones from a biological point of view. To avoid force-fitting a model to a dataset, we propose that the best model parameters should be found by choosing, among suboptimal parameters, those that match criteria other than the ones used to fit the model. We also conclude that the model, data and optimization approach form a new complex system and point to the need of a theory that addresses this problem more generally.

Modeling Dose-response at Low Dose: A Systems Biology Approach for Ionization Radiation

For ionization radiation (IR) induced cancer, a linear non-threshold (LNT) model at very low doses is the default used by a number of national and international organizations and in regulatory law. This default denies any positive benefit from any level of exposure. However, experimental observations and theoretical biology have found that both linear and J-shaped IR dose-response curves can exist at those very low doses. We develop low dose J-shaped dose-response, based on systems biology, and thus justify its use regarding exposure to IR. This approach incorporates detailed, molecular and cellular descriptions of biological/toxicological mechanisms to develop a dose-response model through a set of nonlinear, differential equations describing the signaling pathways and biochemical mechanisms of cell cycle checkpoint, apoptosis, and tumor incidence due to IR. This approach yields a J-shaped dose response curve while showing where LNT behaviors are likely to occur. The results confirm the hypothesis of the J-shaped dose response curve: the main reason is that, at low-doses of IR, cells stimulate protective systems through a longer cell arrest time per unit of IR dose. We suggest that the policy implications of this approach are an increasingly correct way to deal with precautionary measures in public health.

A quantitative model of the effect of unreplicated DNA on cell cycle progression in frog egg extracts

A critical goal in cell biology is to develop a systems-level perspective of eukaryotic cell cycle controls. Among these controls, a complex signaling network (called 'checkpoints') arrests progression through the cell cycle when there is a threat to genomic integrity such as unreplicated or damaged DNA. Understanding the regulatory principles of cell cycle checkpoints is important because loss of checkpoint regulation may be a requisite step on the roadway to cancer. Mathematical modeling has proved to be a useful guide to cell cycle regulation by revealing the importance of bistability, hysteresis and time lags in governing cell cycle transitions and checkpoint mechanisms. In this report, we propose a mathematical model of the frog egg cell cycle including effects of unreplicated DNA on progression into mitosis. By a stepwise approach utilizing parameter estimation tools, we build a model that is grounded in fundamental behaviors of the cell cycle engine (hysteresis and time lags), includes new elements in the signaling network (Myt1 and Chk1 kinases), and fits a large and diverse body of data from the experimental literature. The model provides a validated framework upon which to build additional aspects of the cell cycle checkpoint signaling network, including those control signals in the mammalian cell cycle that are commonly mutated in cancer.

Computational systems biology of the cell cycle

One of the early success stories of computational systems biology was the work done on cell-cycle regulation. The earliest mathematical descriptions of cell-cycle control evolved into very complex, detailed computational models that describe the regulation of cell division in many different cell types. On the way these models predicted several dynamical properties and unknown components of the system that were later experimentally verified/identified. Still, research on this field is far from over. We need to understand how the core cell-cycle machinery is controlled by internal and external signals, also in yeast cells and in the more complex regulatory networks of higher eukaryotes. Furthermore, there are many computational challenges what we face as new types of data appear thanks to continuing advances in experimental techniques. We have to deal with cell-to-cell variations, revealed by single cell measurements, as well as the tremendous amount of data flowing from high throughput machines. We need new computational concepts and tools to handle these data and develop more detailed, more precise models of cell-cycle regulation in various organisms. Here we review past and present of computational modeling of cell-cycle regulation, and discuss possible future directions of the field.

Structural identification of piecewise-linear models of genetic regulatory networks

We present a method for the structural identification of genetic regulatory networks (GRNs), based on the use of a class of Piecewise-Linear (PL) models. These models consist of a set of decoupled linear models describing the different modes of operation of the GRN and discrete switches between the modes accounting for the nonlinear character of gene regulation. They thus form a compromise between the mathematical simplicity of linear models and the biological expressiveness of nonlinear models. The input of the PL identification method consists of time-series measurements of concentrations of gene products. As output it produces estimates of the modes of operation of the GRN, as well as all possible minimal combinations of threshold concentrations of the gene products accounting for switches between the modes of operation. The applicability of the PL identification method has been evaluated using simulated data obtained from a model of the carbon starvation response in the bacterium Escherichia coli. This has allowed us to systematically test the performance of the method under different data characteristics, notably variations in the noise level and the sampling density.

Modeling molecular regulatory networks with JigCell and PET

We demonstrate how to model macromolecular regulatory networks with JigCell and the Parameter Estimation Toolkit (PET). These software tools are designed specifically to support the process typically used by systems biologists to model complex regulatory circuits. A detailed example illustrates how a model of the cell cycle in frog eggs is created and then refined through comparison of simulation output with experimental data. We show how parameter estimation tools automatically generate rate constants that fit a model to experimental data.

Dynamical modeling of syncytial mitotic cycles in Drosophila embryos

Immediately following fertilization, the fruit fly embryo undergoes 13 rapid, synchronous, syncytial nuclear division cycles driven by maternal genes and proteins. During these mitotic cycles, there are barely detectable oscillations in the total level of B-type cyclins. In this paper, we propose a dynamical model for the molecular events underlying these early nuclear division cycles in Drosophila. The model distinguishes nuclear and cytoplasmic compartments of the embryo and permits exploration of a variety of rules for protein transport between the compartments. Numerical simulations reproduce the main features of wild-type mitotic cycles: patterns of protein accumulation and degradation, lengthening of later cycles, and arrest in interphase 14. The model is consistent with mutations that introduce subtle changes in the number of mitotic cycles before interphase arrest. Bifurcation analysis of the differential equations reveals the dependence of mitotic oscillations on cycle number, and how this dependence is altered by mutations. The model can be used to predict the phenotypes of novel mutations and effective ranges of the unmeasured rate constants and transport coefficients in the proposed mechanism.

Mathematical modeling as a tool for investigating cell cycle control networks

Although not a traditional experimental "method," mathematical modeling can provide a powerful approach for investigating complex cell signaling networks, such as those that regulate the eukaryotic cell division cycle. We describe here one modeling approach based on expressing the rates of biochemical reactions in terms of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. We discuss the steps and challenges in assigning numerical values to model parameters and the importance of experimental testing of a mathematical model. We illustrate this approach throughout with the simple and well-characterized example of mitotic cell cycles in frog egg extracts. To facilitate new modeling efforts, we describe several publicly available modeling environments, each with a collection of integrated programs for mathematical modeling. This review is intended to justify the place of mathematical modeling as a standard method for studying molecular regulatory networks and to guide the non-expert to initiate modeling projects in order to gain a systems-level perspective for complex control systems.

Systems biology by the rules: hybrid intelligent systems for pathway modeling and discovery

BACKGROUND

Expert knowledge in journal articles is an important source of data for reconstructing biological pathways and creating new hypotheses. An important need for medical research is to integrate this data with high throughput sources to build useful models that span several scales. Researchers traditionally use mental models of pathways to integrate information and development new hypotheses. Unfortunately, the amount of information is often overwhelming and these are inadequate for predicting the dynamic response of complex pathways. Hierarchical computational models that allow exploration of semi-quantitative dynamics are useful systems biology tools for theoreticians, experimentalists and clinicians and may provide a means for cross-communication.

RESULTS

A novel approach for biological pathway modeling based on hybrid intelligent systems or soft computing technologies is presented here. Intelligent hybrid systems, which refers to several related computing methods such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, genetic algorithms, and statistical analysis, has become ubiquitous in engineering applications for complex control system modeling and design. Biological pathways may be considered to be complex control systems, which medicine tries to manipulate to achieve desired results. Thus, hybrid intelligent systems may provide a useful tool for modeling biological system dynamics and computational exploration of new drug targets. A new modeling approach based on these methods is presented in the context of hedgehog regulation of the cell cycle in granule cells. Code and input files can be found at the Bionet website: www.chip.ord/~wbosl/Software/Bionet.

CONCLUSION

This paper presents the algorithmic methods needed for modeling complicated biochemical dynamics using rule-based models to represent expert knowledge in the context of cell cycle regulation and tumor growth. A notable feature of this modeling approach is that it allows biologists to build complex models from their knowledge base without the need to translate that knowledge into mathematical form. Dynamics on several levels, from molecular pathways to tissue growth, are seamlessly integrated. A number of common network motifs are examined and used to build a model of hedgehog regulation of the cell cycle in cerebellar neurons, which is believed to play a key role in the etiology of medulloblastoma, a devastating childhood brain cancer.

Constructing quantitative models from qualitative mutant phenotypes: preferences in selecting sensory organ precursors

MOTIVATION

To study biology from the systems level, mathematical models that describe the time-evolution of the system offer useful insights. Quantitative information is required for constructing such models, but such information is rarely provided.

RESULTS

We propose a scheme-based on random searches over a parameter space, according to criteria set by qualitative experimental observations-for inferring quantitative parameters from qualitative experimental results. We used five mutant constraints to construct genetic network models for sensory organ precursor formation in Drosophila development. Most of the models were capable of generating expression patterns for the gene Enhancer of split that were compatible with experimental observations for wild type and two Notch mutants. We further examined factors differentiating the neural fate among cells in a proneural cluster, and found two opposite driving forces that bias the choice between middle cells and the peripheral cells. Therefore, it is possible to build numerical models from mutant screening and to study mechanisms behind the complicated network.

Gradients in the self-organization of the mitotic spindle

Recent evidence points at a role of protein interaction gradients around chromatin in mitotic spindle morphogenesis in large eukaryotic cells. Here, we explain how gradients can arise over distances of tens of microns around supramolecular structures from mixtures of soluble molecules. We discuss how coupled sets of such reaction diffusion processes generate the spatial information that determines the local dynamics of microtubules required to form a bipolar spindle. We argue that such reaction diffusion processes are involved in the self-organization of supramolecular structures in the cell.