Statistical estimation of statistical mechanical models: helix-coil theory and peptide helicity prediction

Estimation of Peptide Helicity from Circular Dichroism Using the Ensemble Model

An established method for the quantitation of the helix content in peptides using circular dichroism (CD) relies on the linear spectroscopic model. This model assumes an average value of the helix-length correction for all peptide conformers, irrespective of the length of the helical segment. Here we assess the validity of this approximation and introduce a more physically realistic ensemble-based analysis of the CD signal in which the length correction is assigned specifically to each ensemble conformer. We demonstrate that the linear model underestimates peptide helicity, with the difference depending on the ensemble composition. We developed a computer program that implements the ensemble model to estimate the peptide helicity. Using this model and the CD data set covering a broad range of helicities, we recalibrate CD baseline parameters and redetermine helix-coil parameters for the alanine-rich peptide. We show that the ensemble model leverages small differences in signal between conformers to extract more information from the experimental data, enabling the determination of several poorly defined quantities, such as the nucleation constant and heat capacity change associated with helix folding. Overall, the presented ensemble-based treatment of the CD signal, together with the recalibrated values of the spectroscopic baseline parameters, provides a coherent framework for the analysis of the peptide helix content.

Efficient enumeration and visualization of helix-coil ensembles

Helix-coil models are routinely used to interpret circular dichroism data of helical peptides or predict the helicity of naturally-occurring and designed polypeptides. However, a helix-coil model contains significantly more information than mean helicity alone, as it defines the entire ensemble-the equilibrium population of every possible helix-coil configuration-for a given sequence. Many desirable quantities of this ensemble are either not obtained as ensemble averages or are not available using standard helicity-averaging calculations. Enumeration of the entire ensemble can allow calculation of a wider set of ensemble properties, but the exponential size of the configuration space typically renders this intractable. We present an algorithm that efficiently approximates the helix-coil ensemble to arbitrary accuracy by sequentially generating a list of the M highest populated configurations in descending order of population. Truncating this list of (configuration, population) pairs at a desired accuracy provides an approximating sub-ensemble. We demonstrate several uses of this approach for providing insight into helix-coil ensembles and folding mechanisms, including landscape visualization.

BAYESIAN PROTEIN STRUCTURE ALIGNMENT

The analysis of the three-dimensional structure of proteins is an important topic in molecular biochemistry. Structure plays a critical role in defining the function of proteins and is more strongly conserved than amino acid sequence over evolutionary timescales. A key challenge is the identification and evaluation of structural similarity between proteins; such analysis can aid in understanding the role of newly discovered proteins and help elucidate evolutionary relationships between organisms. Computational biologists have developed many clever algorithmic techniques for comparing protein structures, however, all are based on heuristic optimization criteria, making statistical interpretation somewhat difficult. Here we present a fully probabilistic framework for pairwise structural alignment of proteins. Our approach has several advantages, including the ability to capture alignment uncertainty and to estimate key "gap" parameters which critically affect the quality of the alignment. We show that several existing alignment methods arise as maximum a posteriori estimates under specific choices of prior distributions and error models. Our probabilistic framework is also easily extended to incorporate additional information, which we demonstrate by including primary sequence information to generate simultaneous sequence-structure alignments that can resolve ambiguities obtained using structure alone. This combined model also provides a natural approach for the difficult task of estimating evolutionary distance based on structural alignments. The model is illustrated by comparison with well-established methods on several challenging protein alignment examples.

Nonadditivity in the alpha-helix to coil transition

The Lifson-Roig Model (LRM) and all its variants describe the α-helix to coil transition in terms of additive component-free energies within a free energy decomposition scheme, and these contributions are interpreted through sequence-context dependent nucleation and propagation parameters. Although this phenomenological approach is able to adequately fit experimental data on helix content and heat capacity, the number of required parameters increases dramatically with additional sequence variation. Moreover, due to nonadditive competing microscopic effects that are difficult to disentangle within a LRM, large uncertainties within the parameters emerge. We offer an alternative view that removes the need for sequence-context parameterization by focusing on individual microsopic interactions within a free energy decomposition and explicitly account for nonadditivity in conformational entropy through network rigidity using a Distance Constraint Model (DCM). We apply a LRM and a DCM to previously published experimental heat capacity and helix content data for a series of heterogeneous polypeptides. Both models describe the experimental data well, and the parameters from both models are consistent with prior work. However, the number of DCM parameters is independent of sequence-variability, the parameter values exhibit better transferability, and the helix nucleation is predicted by the DCM explicitly through the nonadditive nature of conformational entropy. The importance of these results is that the DCM offers a system-independent approach for modeling stability within polypeptides and proteins, where the demonstrated accuracy for the α-helix to coil transition over a series of heterogeneous polypeptides described here is one case in point.

Statistical prediction and molecular dynamics simulation

We describe a statistical approach to the validation and improvement of molecular dynamics simulations of macromolecules. We emphasize the use of molecular dynamics simulations to calculate thermodynamic quantities that may be compared to experimental measurements, and the use of a common set of energetic parameters across multiple distinct molecules. We briefly review relevant results from the theory of stochastic processes and discuss the monitoring of convergence to equilibrium, the obtaining of confidence intervals for summary statistics corresponding to measured quantities, and an approach to validation and improvement of simulations based on out-of-sample prediction. We apply these methods to replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations of a set of eight helical peptides under the AMBER potential using implicit solvent. We evaluate the ability of these simulations to quantitatively reproduce experimental helicity measurements obtained by circular dichroism. In addition, we introduce notions of statistical predictive estimation for force-field parameter refinement. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters of the potential, and introduce Bayesian updating of these parameters. We demonstrate the effect of parameter updating applied to the internal dielectric constant parameter on the out-of-sample prediction accuracy as measured by cross-validation.