Predicting Insulin Treatment Scenarios with the Net Effect Method: Domain of Validity

ReplayBG: A Digital Twin-Based Methodology to Identify a Personalized Model From Type 1 Diabetes Data and Simulate Glucose Concentrations to Assess Alternative Therapies

OBJECTIVE

Design and assessment of new therapies for type 1 diabetes (T1D) management can be greatly facilitated by in silico simulations. The ReplayBG simulation methodology here proposed allows "replaying" the scenario behind data already collected by simulating the glucose concentration obtained in response to alternative insulin/carbohydrate therapies and evaluate their efficacy leveraging the concept of digital twin.

METHODS

ReplayBG is based on two steps. First, a personalized model of glucose-insulin dynamics is identified using insulin, carbohydrate, and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. Then, this model is used to simulate the glucose concentration that would have been obtained by "replaying" the same portion of data using a different therapy. The validity of the methodology was evaluated on 100 virtual subjects using the UVa/Padova T1D Simulator (T1DS). In particular, the glucose concentration traces simulated by ReplayBG are compared with those provided by T1DS in five different scenarios of insulin and carbohydrate treatment modifications. Furthermore, we compared ReplayBG with a state-of-the-art methodology for the scope. Finally, two case studies using real data are also presented.

RESULTS

ReplayBG simulates with high accuracy the effect of the considered insulin and carbohydrate treatment alterations, performing significantly better than state-of-art method in almost all considered situations.

CONCLUSION

ReplayBG proved to be a reliable and robust tool to retrospectively explore the effect of new treatments for T1D on the glucose dynamics. It is freely available as open source software at https://github.com/gcappon/replay-bg.

SIGNIFICANCE

ReplayBG offers a new approach to preliminary evaluate new therapies for T1D management before clinical trials.

Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it

Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug research and development (R&D), point towards oases when they score therapeutic candidates in a way that correlates with clinical utility in humans. Otherwise, they probably lead in the wrong direction. This line of thought can be quantified by using decision theory, in which 'predictive validity' is the correlation coefficient between the output of a decision tool and clinical utility across therapeutic candidates. Analyses based on this approach reveal that the detectability of good candidates is extremely sensitive to predictive validity, because the deserts are big and oases small. Both history and decision theory suggest that predictive validity is under-managed in drug R&D, not least because it is so hard to measure before projects succeed or fail later in the process. This article explains the influence of predictive validity on R&D productivity and discusses methods to evaluate and improve it, with the aim of supporting the application of more effective decision tools and catalysing investment in their creation.

Replay Simulations with Personalized Metabolic Model for Treatment Design and Evaluation in Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The capacity to replay data collected in real life by people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) would lead to individualized (vs population) assessment of treatment strategies to control blood glucose and possibly true personalization. Patek et al introduced such a technique, relying on regularized deconvolution of a population glucose homeostasis model to estimate a residual additive signal and reproduce the experimental data; therefore, allowing the subject-specific replay of what-if scenarios by altering the model inputs (eg, insulin). This early method was shown to have a limited domain of validity. We propose and test in silico a similar approach and extend the method applicability.

METHODS

A subject-specific model personalization of insulin sensitivity and meal-absorption parameters is performed. The University of Virginia (UVa)/Padova T1DM simulator is used to generate experimental scenarios and test the ability of the methodology to accurately reproduce changes in glucose concentration to alteration in meal and insulin inputs. Method performance is assessed by comparing true (UVa/Padova simulator) and replayed glucose traces, using the mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and the Clarke error grid analysis (CEGA).

RESULTS

Model personalization led to a 9.08 and 6.07 decrease in MARD over a prior published method of replaying altered insulin scenarios for basal and bolus changes, respectively. Replay simulations achieved high accuracy, with MARD <10% and more than 95% of readings falling in the CEGA A-B zones for a wide range of interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

In silico studies demonstrate that the proposed method for replay simulation is numerically and clinically valid over broad changes in scenario inputs, indicating possible use in treatment optimization.

Combining continuous glucose monitoring and insulin pumps to automatically tune the basal insulin infusion in diabetes therapy: a review

For individuals affected by Type 1 diabetes (T1D), a chronic disease in which the pancreas does not produce any insulin, maintaining the blood glucose (BG) concentration as much as possible within the safety range (70–180 mg/dl) allows avoiding short- and long-term complications. The tuning of exogenous insulin infusion can be difficult, especially because of the inter- and intra-day variability of physiological and behavioral factors. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors, which monitor glucose concentration in the subcutaneous tissue almost continuously, allowed improving the detection of critical hypo- and hyper-glycemic episodes. Moreover, their integration with insulin pumps for continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion allowed developing algorithms that automatically tune insulin dosing based on CGM measurements in order to mitigate the incidence of critical episodes. In this work, we aim at reviewing the literature on methods for CGM-based automatic attenuation or suspension of basal insulin with a focus on algorithms, their implementation in commercial devices and clinical evidence of their effectiveness and safety.

A Neural-Network-Based Approach to Personalize Insulin Bolus Calculation Using Continuous Glucose Monitoring

BACKGROUND

In type 1 diabetes (T1D) therapy, the calculation of the meal insulin bolus is performed according to a standard formula (SF) exploiting carbohydrate intake, carbohydrate-to-insulin ratio, correction factor, insulin on board, and target glucose. Recently, some approaches were proposed to account for preprandial glucose rate of change (ROC) in the SF, including those by Scheiner and by Pettus and Edelman. Here, the aim is to develop a new approach, based on neural networks (NN), to optimize and personalize the bolus calculation using continuous glucose monitoring information and some easily accessible patient parameters.

METHOD

The UVa/Padova T1D Simulator was used to simulate data of 100 virtual adults in a single-meal noise-free scenario with different conditions in terms of meal amount and preprandial blood glucose and ROC values. An NN was trained to learn the optimal insulin dose using the SF parameters, ROC, body weight, insulin pump basal infusion rate and insulin sensitivity as features. The performance of the NN for meal bolus calculation was assessed by blood glucose risk index (BGRI) and compared to the methods by Scheiner and by Pettus and Edelman.

RESULTS

The NN approach brings to a small but statistically significant ( P < .001) reduction of BGRI value, equal to 0.37, 0.23, and 0.20 versus SF, Scheiner, and Pettus and Edelman, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This preliminary study showed the potentiality of using NNs for the personalization and optimization of the meal insulin bolus calculation. Future work will deal with more realistic scenarios including technological and physiological/behavioral sources of variability.

Retrospective Analysis of Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data With the Surveillance Error Grid Supports Nonadjunctive Dosing Decisions

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to assess clinical risks of inaccurate continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system readings as estimated by the surveillance error grid (SEG).

METHODS

Values from Dexcom G4 Platinum system with an advanced algorithm (Software 505) were plotted on the SEG with temporally matched reference venous (YSI) values collected during clinic visits on days 1, 4, and 7 of sensor wear. Data from a pediatric study (N = 79, age [mean ± SD] 12.2 ± 4.6 years, all with type 1 diabetes) and an adult study (N = 51, age 46.7 ± 15.8 years, 44 with type 1 diabetes and 7 with type 2 diabetes) were used.

RESULTS

Pediatric data included 2262 paired points, of which 1990 (88.0%) were in the "no risk" zone. Adult data included 2263 paired points, of which 2056 (90.9%) were in the "no risk" zone. Performance was best on Day 4, when 92.7% and 93.3% of points from the pediatric and adult studies, respectively, were in the "no risk" zone. Nine of the 4525 points (<0.2%) from 5 different sensors were in zones representing moderate risk, and none were in zones representing great or extreme risk.

CONCLUSIONS

SEG analysis suggests that in pediatric and adult subjects with diabetes, using CGM values for diabetes management poses minimal risk to the user. CGM users also benefit from glucose trends and alerts.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring Sensors: Past, Present and Future Algorithmic Challenges

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors are portable devices that allow measuring and visualizing the glucose concentration in real time almost continuously for several days and are provided with hypo/hyperglycemic alerts and glucose trend information. CGM sensors have revolutionized Type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, improving glucose control when used adjunctively to self-monitoring blood glucose systems. Furthermore, CGM devices have stimulated the development of applications that were impossible to create without a continuous-time glucose signal, e.g., real-time predictive alerts of hypo/hyperglycemic episodes based on the prediction of future glucose concentration, automatic basal insulin attenuation methods for hypoglycemia prevention, and the artificial pancreas. However, CGM sensors’ lack of accuracy and reliability limited their usability in the clinical practice, calling upon the academic community for the development of suitable signal processing methods to improve CGM performance. The aim of this paper is to review the past and present algorithmic challenges of CGM sensors, to show how they have been tackled by our research group, and to identify the possible future ones.