Bruckner T, Das A, Singh P, Boden-Albala B. SARS-CoV-2: An Empirical Investigation of Rose's Population-based Logic.
Epidemiology 2021;
32:807-810. [PMID:
34347688 PMCID:
PMC8478111 DOI:
10.1097/ede.0000000000001405]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2021] [Accepted: 07/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Geoffrey Rose's paper "Sick Individuals, Sick Populations" highlights the counterintuitive finding that the largest share of morbidity arises from populations engaging in low- to moderate-risk behavior. Scholars refer to this finding as the prevention paradox. We examine whether this logic applies to SARS-CoV-2 infected persons considered low to moderate risk.
METHODS
We conducted a population-representative survey and sero-surveillance study for SARS-CoV-2 among adults in Orange County, California. Participants answered questions about health behaviors and provided a finger-pin-prick sample from 10 July to 16 August 2020.
RESULTS
Of the 2979 adults, those reporting low- and moderate-risk behavior accounted for between 78% and 92% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Asymptomatic individuals, as well as persons with low and moderate scores for self-reported likelihood of having had SARS-CoV-2, accounted for the majority of infections.
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings support Rose's logic, which encourages public health measures among persons who self-identify as unlikely to have SARS-CoV-2. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B860.
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