Risk Prediction in Acute Calculous Cholecystitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Predictive Models

Clinical update on acute cholecystitis and biliary pancreatitis: between certainties and grey areas

Acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) and acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) are significant complications of gallstone disease. This review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of current management practices for ACC and ABP. The Tokyo Guidelines (TG) and World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) guidelines recommend early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) as the treatment of choice for ACC. High-risk patients may benefit from alternative treatments like biliary drainage, with emerging techniques such as endoscopic drainage showing promise. ABP requires prompt diagnosis and intervention. The Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC) criteria are used for diagnosis, with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and cholecystectomy as primary treatments. Minimally invasive approaches are preferred for managing complications like infected pancreatic necrosis, with the endoscopic step-up method showing superior outcomes. The management of ACC and ABP continues to evolve. Future research is needed to refine guidelines further and address existing controversies, ultimately improving patient outcomes in these acute biliary conditions.

[Potentially preventable causes of mortality in acute calculous cholecystitis: a population-based study]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze potentially preventable causes of mortality from acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) at the population level.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective study of causes of ACC-related mortality was conducted. We used online survey of state hospitals and estimated fatal outcomes following ACC considering appropriate annual e-database.

RESULTS

There were 1.500 deaths among 142.975 patients aged ≥18 years with acute cholecystitis. We received responses to the proposed questionnaire about 1154 deaths (76.9%). Analysis included 648 cases of ACC (K80.0). Mean age of patients was 76.0 years (31-100). There were 256 (39.5%) men and 392 (60.5%) women. ACC severity was assessed according to the Tokyo guidelines (2018). Mild (I) degree was noted in 24 (3.7%) cases, moderate (II) - 270 (41.7%), severe (III) - 354 (54.6%) patients. Cardiovascular diseases and complications caused death in mild ACC regardless of treatment method in 16 (66.7%) cases, in moderate ACC - 106 (39.3%), in severe ACC - 97 (27.4%) cases. ACC caused death in 3 (12.5%) patients with mild disease, 111 (41.1%) with moderate disease and 200 (56.5%) ones with severe disease. Postoperative complications caused death in 4 (16.7%) patients with mild disease, 29 (10.7%) ones with moderate disease and 30 (8.5%) patients with severe disease. Other causes comprised 4.1% (n=1), 8.9% (n=24) and 7.6% (n=27), respectively. Potentially preventable causes of death were identified in 33.0% of cases.

CONCLUSION

ACC-related mortality is mainly associated with comorbidity in elderly and senile patients, late presentation and complicated course of disease. Delayed surgical treatment due to diagnostic and tactical problems, as well as technical intraoperative errors is potentially preventable causes of death.

The Significance of Preoperative Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR), and Systemic Inflammatory Index (SII) in Predicting Severity and Adverse Outcomes in Acute Calculous Cholecystitis

The prediction of severity in acute calculous cholecystitis (AC) is important in therapeutic management to ensure an early recovery and prevent adverse postoperative events. We analyzed the value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic inflammatory index (SII) to predict advanced inflammation, the risk for conversion, and postoperative complications in AC. Advanced AC was considered the cases with empyema, gangrene, perforation of the gallbladder, abscesses, or difficulties in achieving the critical view of safety. A 3-year retrospective was performed on 235 patients admitted in emergency care for AC. The NLR was superior to the PLR and SII in predicting advanced inflammation and risk for conversion. The best predictive value was found to be at an NLR "cut-off" value of >4.19, with a sensitivity of 85.5% and a specificity of 66.9% (AUC = 0.824). The NLR, SII, and TG 13/18 correlate well with postoperative complications of Clavien-Dindo grade IV (p < 0.001 for all variables) and sepsis. For predicting early postoperative sepsis, TG 13/18 grading >2 and NLR > 8.54 show the best predicting power (AUC = 0.931; AUC = 0.888, respectively), although not significantly higher than that of the PLR and SII. The NLR is a useful biomarker in assessing the severity of inflammation in AC. The SII and PLR may be useful in the prediction of systemic inflammatory response.

Value of monocyte distribution width for predicting severe cholecystitis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Acute cholecystitis is a gallbladder inflammation, and the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18) can be used to predict its presence and severity with high sensitivity and specificity. However, TG18 grading require the collection of excessive parameters. Monocyte distribution width (MDW) is a parameter used to detect sepsis early. Therefore, we investigated the correlation between MDW and cholecystitis severity.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of patients with cholecystitis admitted to our hospital from November 1, 2020, to August 31, 2021. The primary outcome was severe cholecystitis analyzed as a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. The secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay, ICU stay, and TG18 grade.

RESULTS

A total of 331 patients with cholecystitis were enrolled in this study. The average MDWs for TG18 grades 1, 2, and 3 were 20.21 ± 3.99, 20.34 ± 3.68, and 25.77 ± 6.61, respectively. For patients with severe cholecystitis, the average MDW was 25.42 ± 6.83. Using the Youden J statistic, we set a cutoff MDW of 21.6. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that patients with an MDW≥21.6 had a higher risk of severe cholecystitis (odds ratio=4.94; 95 % CI, 1.71-14.21; p=0.003). The Cox model revealed that patients with an MDW≥21.6 were more likely to have a prolonged hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

MDW is a reliable indicator of severe cholecystitis and prolonged length of stay. Additional MDW testing and a complete blood count may provide simple information for predicting severe cholecystitis early.

Acute cholecystitis in old adults: the impact of advanced age on the clinical characteristics of the disease and on the surgical outcomes of laparoscopic cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND

Impact of advanced age on disease characteristics of acute cholecystitis (AC), and surgical outcomes after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has not been established.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included patients who underwent LC for AC between April 2010 and December 2020. We analyzed the disease characteristics and surgical outcomes according to age: Group 1 (age < 60 years), Group 2 (60 ≤ age < 80 years), and Group 3 (age ≥ 80 years). Risk factors for complications were assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 1,876 patients (809 [43.1%] women), 723 were in Group 1, 867 in Group 2, and 286 in Group 3. With increasing age, the severity of AC and combined common bile duct stones increased. Group 3 demonstrated significantly worse surgical outcomes when compared to Group 1 and 2 for overall (4.0 vs. 9.1 vs. 18.9%, p < 0.001) and serious complications (1.2 vs. 4.2 vs. 8.0%, p < 0.001), length of hospital stay (2.78 vs. 3.72 vs. 5.87 days, p < 0.001), and open conversion (0.1 vs. 1.0 vs. 2.1%, p = 0.007). Incidental gallbladder cancer was also the most common in Group 3 (0.3 vs. 1.5 vs. 3.1%, p = 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, body mass index < 18.5, moderate/severe AC, and albumin < 2.5 g/dL were significant risk factors for serious complications in Group 3.

CONCLUSION

Advanced age was associated with severe AC, worse surgical outcomes, and a higher rate of incidental gallbladder cancer following LC. Therefore, in patients over 80 years of age with AC, especially those with poor nutritional status and high severity grading, urgent surgery should be avoided, and surgery should be performed after sufficient supportive care to restore nutritional status before LC.

Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis: Does age matter?

AIM

Advances in laparoscopic surgery and perioperative care have improved the prognosis of operated patients, especially the oldest among them. This study aimed to assess the outcomes of early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute calculous cholecystitis in older adult patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was carried out of 567 patients who underwent early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute calculous cholecystitis between January 2003 and July 2021. The outcomes of older adult patients (≥ 75 years) were compared with those of younger patients.

RESULTS

The older adult group had significantly more patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥3 (37.5% vs 8.3%; P < 0.001) and more severe acute calculous cholecystitis (grade II; 82.8% vs 67%; P = 0.01). There were no significant differences regarding operative time (90 vs 80 min; P = 0.064), conversion rate (20.3% vs 13.5%; P = 0.144), and both intra- and postoperative morbidity, principally bile duct injuries (1.6% vs 0%; P = 0.113) and bile leakage (0% vs 1.2%; P = 1).

CONCLUSION

Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy could be proposed safely for older adult patients with mild and moderate acute cholecystitis. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2023; 23: 671-675.

Are outcomes for emergency index-admission laparoscopic cholecystectomy performed by hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons better compared to non-hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons? A 10-year audit using 1:1 propensity score matching

BACKGROUND

Emergency index-admission cholecystectomy (EIC) is recommended for acute cholecystitis in most cases. General surgeons have less exposure in managing "difficult" cholecystectomies. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of EIC between hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) versus non-HPB surgeons.

METHODS

This is a 10-year retrospective audit on patients who underwent EIC from December 2011 to March 2022. Patients who underwent open cholecystectomy, had previous cholecystitis, previous endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography or cholecystostomy were excluded. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for confounding variables (e.g. age ≥ 75 years, history of abdominal surgery, presence of dense adhesions).

RESULTS

There were 1409 patients (684 HPB cases, 725 non-HPB cases) in the unmatched cohort. Majority (52.3%) of them were males with a mean age of 59.2 ± 14.9 years. Among 472 (33.5%) patients with EIC performed ≥ 72 hours after presentation, 40.1% had dense adhesion. The incidence of any morbidity, open conversion, subtotal cholecystectomy and bile duct injury were 12.4%, 5.0%, 14.6% and 0.1%, respectively. There was one mortality within 30 days from EIC. PSM resulted in 1166 patients (583 per group). Operative time was shorter when EIC was performed by HPB surgeons (115.5 min vs. 133.4 min, P < 0.001). The mean length of hospital stay was comparable. EIC performed by HPB surgeons was independently associated with lower open conversion [odds ratio (OR)=  0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12-0.49, P < 0.001], lower fundus-first cholecystectomy (OR=  0.58, 95% CI: 0.35-0.95, P=  0.032), but higher subtotal cholecystectomy (OR=  4.19, 95% CI: 2.24-7.84, P < 0.001). Any morbidity, bile duct injury and mortality were comparable between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

EIC performed by HPB surgeons were associated with shorter operative time and reduced risk of open conversion. However, the incidence of subtotal cholecystectomy was higher.

Prediction of morbidity and mortality after early cholecystectomy for acute calculous cholecystitis: results of the S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C. study

Background

Less invasive alternatives than early cholecystectomy (EC) for acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) treatment have been spreading in recent years. We still lack a reliable tool to select high-risk patients who could benefit from these alternatives. Our study aimed to prospectively validate the Chole-risk score in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing EC for ACC compared with other preoperative risk prediction models.

Method

The S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C. study is a World Society of Emergency Surgery prospective multicenter observational study. From 1st September 2021 to 1st September 2022, 1253 consecutive patients admitted in 79 centers were included. The inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of ACC and to be a candidate for EC. A Cochran-Armitage test of the trend was run to determine whether a linear correlation existed between the Chole-risk score and a complicated postoperative course. To assess the accuracy of the analyzed prediction models—POSSUM Physiological Score (PS), modified Frailty Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA), APACHE II score, and ACC severity grade—receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to compare the diagnostic abilities.

Results

A 30-day major morbidity of 6.6% and 30-day mortality of 1.1% were found. Chole-risk was validated, but POSSUM PS was the best risk prediction model for a complicated course after EC for ACC (in-hospital mortality: AUC 0.94, p < 0.001; 30-day mortality: AUC 0.94, p < 0.001; in-hospital major morbidity: AUC 0.73, p < 0.001; 30-day major morbidity: AUC 0.70, p < 0.001). POSSUM PS with a cutoff of 25 (defined in our study as a ‘Chole-POSSUM’ score) was then validated in a separate cohort of patients. It showed a 100% sensitivity and a 100% negative predictive value for mortality and a 96–97% negative predictive value for major complications.

Conclusions

The Chole-risk score was externally validated, but the CHOLE-POSSUM stands as a more accurate prediction model. CHOLE-POSSUM is a reliable tool to stratify patients with ACC into a low-risk group that may represent a safe EC candidate, and a high-risk group, where new minimally invasive endoscopic techniques may find the most useful field of action.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrial.gov NCT04995380.

Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis: should we operate beyond the first week?

BACKGROUND

The deadline for early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) in patients with acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) is the subject of much debate. The aim of this study was to assess outcomes of ELC in patients with more than 7 days of symptoms.

METHODS

It is a retrospective analysis of 564 patients having undergone ELC for ACC between January 2003 and June 2021. Patients were divided into two groups according to the timing between the onset of symptoms and surgery: group 1 (G1), within the first 7 days of symptoms, and group 2 (G2) after day 7 of symptoms.

RESULTS

Apart from a longer operative time (G1 80 min vs. G2 90 min; p = 0.016), there were no significant differences regarding conversion rate (G1 14.5% vs. G2 13.2%; p = 0.748), both intra- and postoperative complications, mainly bile duct injuries (G1 0.2% vs. G2 0%; p = 1) and bile leakage (G1 1.2% vs. G2 0%; p = 1) and postoperative length of stay (G1 2 days [1-3] vs. G2 2 days [1-4]; p = 0.125).

CONCLUSION

Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy could be proposed for patients with acute calculous cholecystitis even beyond 7 days of symptoms.

Correlation of Inpatients Suffering from Acute Acalculous Cholecystitis during ICU Treatment with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score, Duration of Ventilator Use, and Time on Total Parenteral Nutrition

Objective

To explore the correlation of inpatients suffering from acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC) during ICU treatment with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, duration of ventilator use, and time on total parenteral nutrition (TPN).

Methods

From March 2016 to March 2022, the clinical data of 47 patients with AAC who received ICU treatment in our hospital were retrospectively reviewed, and these patients were included in the AAC group. Another 36 patients treated in the ICU in the same period with age and gender matching with those in the AAC group were selected as the non-AAC group. Patients' various clinical data were recorded to analyze the correlation of AAC with APACHE-II score, duration of ventilator use, and time on TPN.

Results

The shock time, duration of ventilator usage, and duration of sedative medicine use were all substantially longer in the AAC group than in the non-AAC group, according to the univariate analysis (P < 0.05); the amount of norepinephrine used, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein (CRP) amount, and APACHE-II score were significantly higher in the AAC group than in the non-AAC group (P < 0.05); between the two groups, the time on TPN and fasting time were different, but with no statistical significance (P > 0.05); after performing Spearman's correlation with the significantly between-group different indicators, the result showed that the amount of norepinephrine used, duration of ventilator use, white blood cell count, and CRP amount were significantly correlated with the occurrence of AAC, and the correlation was positive (P all <0.001).

Conclusion

The APACHE-II score and time on TPN are not significantly correlated with the occurrence of AAC; and the amount of norepinephrine used, duration of ventilator use, white blood cell count, and serum CRP are positively correlated with the occurrence of AAC. Measuring the variations in the levels of various markers can signal the onset of AAC or reflect the state and prognosis, suggesting a possible application in clinic-based targeted prevention and treatment of AAC.

Acute cholecystitis: Delayed cholecystectomy has lesser perioperative morbidity compared to emergency cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND

In comparison to delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy, emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy has a shorter length of stay and eliminates the risk of recurrent episodes of acute cholecystitis. Nevertheless, there is concern that emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy is associated with higher morbidity in acute cholecystitis patients. The present large cohort study compares operation-related adverse outcomes between emergency and delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy and determines the risk of readmission before delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy to guide surgical decision-making.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with acute cholecystitis who underwent emergency or delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy between 2015 and 2019 were included. Perioperative outcomes were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis, adjusting for preoperative variables. The rate of readmission before delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy was determined.

RESULTS

In total, 811 patients were included (median age, 58 years; male:female, 1:1.5): 227 emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomies (28.0%), 555 delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomies (68.4%), and 29 emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomies whilst awaiting delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy (3.6%). Emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy was associated with increased incidences of subtotal cholecystectomy (OR 1.94; P = .011), bile leak (OR 2.38; P = .013), intraoperative drains (OR 2.54; P < .001), prolonged postoperative length of stay (OR 7.26; P < .001), postoperative imaging (OR 1.83, P = .006), and postoperative readmission (OR 1.90; P = .005). There was a 13.5% risk of readmission over 2 months while waiting delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy and a 22.5% risk over the median waiting time (5 months, 9 days).

CONCLUSION

Emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy is positively associated with a multitude of operation-related adverse outcomes in acute cholecystitis, compared to delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy. The benefit of delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy should be balanced against the significant readmission risk before delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy may be the most pragmatic strategy for centers dealing with high volumes of biliary admissions and long elective-surgery waiting times. When opting for delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy, confirming the date of surgery before discharge may ensure timely intervention and avoid the morbidity and expense of readmission.

Revision of the AAST grading scale for acute cholecystitis with comparison to physiologic measures of severity

BACKGROUND

Grading systems for acute cholecystitis are essential to compare outcomes, improve quality, and advance research. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) grading system for acute cholecystitis was only moderately discriminant when predicting multiple outcomes and underperformed the Tokyo guidelines and Parkland grade. We hypothesized that through additional expert consensus, the predictive capacity of the AAST anatomic grading system could be improved.

METHODS

A modified Delphi approach was used to revise the AAST grading system. Changes were made to improve distribution of patients across grades, and additional key clinical variables were introduced. The revised version was assessed using prospectively collected data from an AAST multicenter study. Patient distribution across grades was assessed, and the revised grading system was evaluated based on predictive capacity using area under receiver operating characteristic curves for conversion from laparoscopic to an open procedure, use of a surgical "bail-out" procedure, bile leak, major complications, and discharge home. A preoperative AAST grade was defined based on preoperative, clinical, and radiologic data, and the Parkland grade was also substituted for the operative component of the AAST grade.

RESULTS

Using prospectively collected data on 861 patients with acute cholecystitis the revised version of the AAST grade has an improved distribution across all grades, both the overall grade and across each subscale. A higher AAST grade predicted each of the outcomes assessed (all p ≤ 0.01). The revised AAST grade outperformed the original AAST grade for predicting operative outcomes and discharge disposition. Despite this improvement, the AAST grade did not outperform the Parkland grade or the Emergency Surgery Score.

CONCLUSION

The revised AAST grade and the preoperative AAST grade demonstrated improved discrimination; however, a purely anatomic grade based on chart review is unlikely to predict outcomes without addition of physiologic variables. Follow-up validation will be necessary.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Diagnostic Test or Criteria, Level IV.

[Acute Cholecystitis in high-risk surgical patients: sonographic and endoscopic treatment options]

Cholecystectomy is the gold standard in the treatment of acute cholecystitis, but has a significantly increased risk in multimorbid patients or in the severe course of acute cholecystitis. In such cases, drainage of the damaged gallbladder in combination with antibiotic therapy may be superior to primary surgery. The drainage can either be performed as sonographically guided percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder drainage or as EUS-guided transmural stent placement or endoscopic-transpapillary gallbladder drainage. These minimally invasive alternatives to cholecystectomy can be used both as long-term therapy for permanently inoperable patients and temporarily for patients in whom the cholecystectomy is intended after improvement of the general condition. In this overview, the various drainage methods are discussed with regard to technical requirements, immediate and long-term clinical results and complications. With advances in stent design, EUS-guided transmural stent placement from the stomach or duodenum into the gallbladder is becoming the preferred method of gallbladder drainage in centers with the appropriate expertise.

2020 World Society of Emergency Surgery updated guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute calculus cholecystitis

BACKGROUND

Acute calculus cholecystitis (ACC) has a high incidence in the general population. The presence of several areas of uncertainty, along with the availability of new evidence, prompted the current update of the 2016 WSES (World Society of Emergency Surgery) Guidelines on ACC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The WSES president appointed four members as a scientific secretariat, four members as an organization committee and four members as a scientific committee, choosing them from the expert affiliates of WSES. Relevant key questions were constructed, and the task force produced drafts of each section based on the best scientific evidence from PubMed and EMBASE Library; recommendations were developed in order to answer these key questions. The quality of evidence and strength of recommendations were reviewed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria (see https://www.gradeworkinggroup.org/ ). All the statements were presented, discussed and voted upon during the Consensus Conference at the 6th World Congress of the World Society of Emergency Surgery held in Nijmegen (NL) in May 2019. A revised version of the statements was voted upon via an online questionnaire until consensus was reached.

RESULTS

The pivotal role of surgery is confirmed, including in high-risk patients. When compared with the WSES 2016 guidelines, the role of gallbladder drainage is reduced, despite the considerable technical improvements available. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) should be the standard of care whenever possible, even in subgroups of patients who are considered fragile, such as the elderly; those with cardiac disease, renal disease and cirrhosis; or those who are generally at high risk for surgery. Subtotal cholecystectomy is safe and represents a valuable option in cases of difficult gallbladder removal.

CONCLUSIONS, KNOWLEDGE GAPS AND RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS

ELC has a central role in the management of patients with ACC. The value of surgical treatment for high-risk patients should lead to a distinction between high-risk patients and patients who are not suitable for surgery. Further evidence on the role of clinical judgement and the use of clinical scores as adjunctive tools to guide treatment of high-risk patients and patients who are not suitable for surgery is required. The development of local policies for safe laparoscopic cholecystectomy is recommended.