Predictive Factors for Mortality in Pre-Term Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Value of portal venous gas and a nomogram for predicting severe neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis

BACKGROUND

Whether portal venous gas (PVG) is a sign of severe neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and predicts poor prognosis remains uncertain.

METHODS

Patients from two centres were randomly assigned to a training set or a validation set. A nomogram model for predicting severe NEC was developed on the basis of the independent risk factors selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The model was evaluated based on the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 585 patients met the study criteria, and propensity score matching resulted in 141 matched pairs for further analysis. Patients with PVG had a greater risk of surgical intervention or death compared with patients without PVG. A prediction model for severe NEC was established based on PVG, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), serum platelet count (PLT) and pH <7.35 at the onset of NEC. The model had a moderate predictive value with an AUC > 0.8. The calibration curve and DCA suggested that the nomogram model had good performance for clinical application.

CONCLUSION

A prediction nomogram model based on PVG and other risk factors can help physicians identify severe NEC early and develop reasonable treatment plans.

IMPACT

PVG is an important and common imaging manifestation of NEC. Controversy exists regarding whether PVG is an indication for surgical intervention and predicts poor prognosis. Our study suggested that patients with PVG had a greater risk of surgical intervention or death compared with patients without PVG. PVG, IMV, PLT and pH <7.35 at the onset of NEC are independent risk factors for severe NEC. A prediction nomogram model based on PVG and other risk factors may help physicians identify severe NEC early and develop reasonable treatment plans.

Development of a Prediction Model for Surgery or Early Mortality at the Time of Initial Assessment for Necrotizing Enterocolitis

OBJECTIVE

 No available scale, at the time of initial evaluation for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), accurately predicts, that is, with an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.9, which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.

STUDY DESIGN

 This is a retrospective cohort study (n = 261) of preterm infants with <33 weeks' gestation or <1,500 g birth weight with either suspected or with definite NEC born at Parkland Hospital between 2009 and 2021. A prediction model using the new HASOFA score (Hyperglycemia, Hyperkalemia, use of inotropes for Hypotension during the prior week, Acidemia, Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [nSOFA] score) was compared with a similar model using the nSOFA score.

RESULTS

 Among 261 infants, 112 infants had NEC stage I, 68 with NEC stage II, and 81 with NEC stage III based on modified Bell's classification. The primary outcome, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week, occurred in 81 infants (surgery in 66 infants and death in 38 infants). All infants with pneumoperitoneum or abdominal compartment syndrome either died or had surgery. The HASOFA and the nSOFA scores were evaluated in 254 and 253 infants, respectively, at the time of the initial workup for NEC. Both models were internally validated. The HASOFA model was a better predictor of surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week than the nSOFA model, with greater AUC 0.909 versus 0.825, respectively, p < 0.001. Combining HASOFA at initial assessment with concurrent or later presence of abdominal wall erythema or portal gas improved the prediction surgery for NEC stage III or death with AUC 0.942 or 0.956, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 Using this new internally validated prediction model, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week can be accurately predicted at the time of initial assessment for NEC.

KEY POINTS

· No available scale, at initial evaluation, accurately predicts which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.. · In this retrospective cohort study of 261 preterm infants with either suspected or definite NEC we developed a new prediction model (HASOFA score).. · The HASOFA-model had high discrimination (AUC: 0.909) and excellent calibration and was internally validated..

Influencing factors for surgical treatment in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a complex disease characterized by gastrointestinal inflammation and is one of the most common gastrointestinal emergencies in neonates. Mild to moderate cases of NEC require medical treatment, whereas severe cases necessitate surgical intervention. However, evidence for surgical indications is limited and largely dependent on the surgeon's experience, leading to variability in outcomes. The primary aim of this study is to identify the risk factors for surgical intervention in neonatal NEC, which will aid in predicting the optimal timing for surgical intervention.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases for case-control studies exploring risk factors for NEC requiring surgical intervention. The search was completed on June 16, 2024, and data analysis was performed using R Studio 4.3.2.

RESULTS

18 studies were included, comprising 1,104 cases in the surgery group and 1,686 in the medical treatment group. The meta-analysis indicated that high C-reactive protein (CRP) levels [OR = 1.42, 95% CI (1.01, 1.99)], lower gestational age [OR = 0.52, 95% CI (0.3, 0.91)], sepsis [OR = 2.94, 95% CI (1.87, 4.60)], coagulation disorder [OR = 3.45, 95% CI (1.81, 6.58)], lack of enteral feeding [OR = 3.18, 95% CI (1.37, 7.35)], and hyponatremia [OR = 1.22, 95% CI (1.07, 1.39)] are significant risk factors for surgical treatment in neonatal NEC.

CONCLUSIONS

High CRP levels, coagulation disorders, sepsis, lower gestational age, lack of enteral feeding, and hyponatremia are significant risk factors for surgical intervention in neonatal NEC. These findings have potential clinical significance for predicting surgical risk.

Neurodevelopmental impairment following surgical necrotizing enterocolitis with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks: who is at risk?

PURPOSE

Surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a severe medical condition that, even after surgery, a portion of the survival infants may still have neurological sequelae. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the development of permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in neonates with surgical NEC.

METHODS

Between January 2016 and June 2022, a retrospective data collection was conducted on 98 individuals who experienced surgical NEC with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks. Among these patients, 27 patients were diagnosed with NDI, while the remaining 71 patients did not have NDI. Based on this division, the patients were categorized into the NDI group and the Non-NDI group. Demographics, comorbidities, and admission lab results were analyzed using univariate and logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 98 neonates following surgical NEC, 27(27.6%) developed permanent neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). Predictors of NDI were identified through the final multivariable logistic regression analysis, which revealed that gestational age ≤ 32 weeks (p = 0.032; odds ratio [OR], 5.673), assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset (p = 0.047; OR, 5.299), postoperative acute kidney injury (p = 0.040; OR, 5.106), CRP day 3 after NEC onset (p = 0.049; OR, 1.037), time from presentation to surgery (p = 0.003; OR, 1.047) were significant risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified gestational age ≤ 32 weeks, assisted mechanical ventilation after NEC onset, postoperative acute kidney injury, CRP day 3 after NEC onset, and time from presentation to surgery as significant risk factors for NDI in neonates with surgical NEC. These factors would be helpful to refine treatment modalities for better disease outcomes. We also determined the cut-off values of CRP day 3 after NEC onset and time from presentation to surgery, allowing for the individualized evaluation of NDI risk and the implementation of earlier targeted laparotomy.