Mortality Risk of Nonoperative Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Corollary for Active Surveillance

Associations Between Metabolic Obesity Phenotypes and Pathological Characteristics of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The association between obesity, metabolic dysregulation, and the aggressive pathological traits of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) continues to be a contentious issue. To date, no investigations have examined the impact of metabolic status on the malignant pathological features of PTC in relation to obesity.

METHODS

This research involved 855 adult patients with PTC from Shandong Provincial Hospital, classified into 4 groups based on metabolic and obesity status: metabolically healthy nonobese, metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUNO), metabolically healthy obese, and metabolically unhealthy obese. We employed logistic regression to investigate the relationship between these metabolic obesity phenotypes and PTC's pathological characteristics. Mediation analysis was also performed to determine metabolic abnormalities' mediating role in the nexus between obesity and these characteristics.

RESULTS

Relative to metabolically healthy nonobese individuals, the metabolically unhealthy obese group was significantly associated with an elevated risk of larger tumor sizes and a greater number of tumor foci in PTC. Mediation analysis indicated that obesity directly influences tumor size, whereas its effect on tumor multifocality is mediated through metabolic dysfunctions. Specifically, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were notably associated with tumor multifocality within obese subjects, serving as a mediator in obesity's impact on this trait.

CONCLUSION

The concurrent presence of obesity and metabolic dysregulation is often connected to more aggressive pathological features in PTC. The mediation analysis suggests obesity directly affects tumor size and indirectly influences tumor multifocality via low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

Analysis of risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis in T1 stage papillary thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

Background

The occurrence of cervical lymph node metastasis in T1 stage papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is frequently observed. Notably, lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) emerges as a critical risk factor adversely affecting prognostic outcomes in PTC. The primary aim of this investigation was to delineate the risk factors associated with LLNM in the initial stages of PTC.

Methods

This retrospective analysis encompassed 3,332 patients diagnosed with T1 stage PTC without evident LLNM at the time of diagnosis. These individuals underwent primary surgical intervention at West China Hospital, Sichuan University between June 2017 and February 2023. The cohort was divided into two groups: patients manifesting LLNM and those without metastasis at the time of surgery. Additionally, T1 stage PTC patients were subdivided into T1a and T1b categories. Factors influencing LLNM were scrutinized through both univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

The incidence of LLNM was observed in 6.2% of the cohort (206 out of 3,332 patients). Univariate analysis revealed significant correlations between LLNM and male gender (P<0.001), tumor localization in the upper lobe (P<0.001), maximal volume of the primary tumor (P<0.001), largest tumor diameter (P<0.001), multifocality (P<0.001), and bilaterality (P<0.001), with the exception of age (P=0.788) and duration of active surveillance (AS) (P=0.978). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified male gender (P<0.001), upper lobe tumor location (P<0.001), maximal primary tumor volume (P<0.001), and multifocality (P<0.001) as independent predictors of LLNM. However, age categories (≤55, >55 years), maximum tumor diameter, bilaterality, and surveillance duration did not exhibit a significant impact. Comparative analyses between T1a and T1b subgroups showed congruent univariate results but revealed differences in multivariate outcomes. In the T1a subgroup, gender, tumor location, and multifocality (all P<0.05) were associated with elevated LLNM risk. Conversely, in the T1b subgroup, tumor location, dimensions, and multifocality (all P<0.05) were significant predictors of LLNM risk, whereas gender (P=0.097) exerted a marginal influence.

Conclusions

The investigation highlights several key risk factors for LLNM in T1 stage PTC patients, including gender, upper lobe tumor location, larger tumor size, and multifocality. Conversely, prolonged AS and younger age did not significantly elevate LLNM risk, suggesting the viability of AS as a strategic option in selected cases.

Choice of management strategy for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: active surveillance or immediate surgery?

Overdiagnosis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is prevalent, and effective management of PTMC is an important matter. The high incidence and low mortality rate of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) justify the preference for active surveillance (AS) over immediate surgery (IS), particularly in cases of low-risk PTMC. Japan began AS in the 1990s as an alternative surgical option for PTMC and it has shown promising results. The safety and efficacy of AS management in PTMC have been verified. However, AS may not be suitable for all PTMC cases. How to find the balance between the decision-making of AS and IS requires careful consideration. Therefore, we collected and analyzed the relevant evidence on the clinical strategies for PTC and discussed AS and IS from the perspectives of health, economic, and psychological aspects, to help clinicians in choosing a more appropriate clinical strategy for PTC.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in middle-aged patients with papillary thyroid cancer: A SEER database study

Background

Thyroid cancer (TC) accounts for more than 90% of endocrine tumours and is a typical head and neck tumour in adults. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive tool to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods

The patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 25,342) and a internal validation cohort (n = 10,725). The patients from 2016 to 2018 were treated as an external validation cohort (n = 11353). COX proportional hazard model was used to screen meaningful independent risk factors. These factors were constructed into a nomogram to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with PTC. The performance and accuracy of the nomogram were then evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The clinical value of nomogram was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Age, gender, marriage, tumour grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and tumour size were independent prognostic factors. The C-indexes of the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.906, 0.887, and 0.962, respectively. The AUC and calibration curves show good accuracy. DCA shows that the clinical value of the nomogram is higher than that of Tumour, Node and Metastasis (TNM) staging.

Conclusion

We developed a new prediction tool to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with PTC. The model has good performance after internal and external validation, which can be friendly to help doctors and patients predict CSS.

Psychological adjustment to initial treatment for low-risk thyroid cancer: Preliminary study

BACKGROUND

Low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (LR-PTC) can be managed by immediate surgery (IS) or active surveillance (AS). We compare the psychological impact of these treatments on patients with LR-PTC.

METHODS

Psychological data were collected over 1 year, with assessments at the time of treatment decision (T1), at 6 months (T2) and 12 months (T3) follow-up. Assessments included 13 validated psychological tools.

RESULTS

Of 27 enrolled patients, 20 chose AS and 7 chose IS. The average times to T2 and T3 were 5.7 and 11.3 months, respectively. For both groups, Impact of Events Scale scores significantly decreased (p = 0.001) at T2, and depressive/anxiety symptoms remained low.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the feasibility of assessing psychological outcomes among patients treated for LR-PTC. Further studies are needed to evaluate the impact of AS versus IS on quality of life and changes that patients experience over longer time periods following their treatment decision.

Association between age and the presence and mortality of breast cancer synchronous brain metastases in the United States: A neglected SEER analysis

Background

The extent of the relationship between age and the presence of breast cancer synchronous brain metastases (BCSBMs) and mortality has not yet been well-identified or sufficiently quantified. We aimed to examine the association of age with the presence of BCSBMs and all-cause and cancer-specific mortality outcomes using the SEER database.

Methods

Age-associated risk of the presence and survival of BCSBMs were evaluated on a continuous scale (restricted cubic spline, RCS) with logistic or Cox regression models. The main endpoints were the presence of BCSBMs and all-cause mortality or cancer-specific mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk models were used in survival analysis.

Results

Among 374,132 adult breast cancer patients, 1,441 (0.38%) had BMs. The presence of BCSBMs displayed a U-shaped relationship with age, with the highest point of the curve occurring at the age of 62. In both the younger (age ≤ 61) and older (age ≥ 62) groups, the observed curve showed a nearly linear relationship between age and the presence of BCSBMs. The relationship between age and all-cause mortality (ASM) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) was linear. Older age at diagnosis was associated with a higher risk of ASM (HR 1.019, 95% CI: 1.013-1.024, p < 0.001) and CSM (HR 1.016, 95% CI: 1.010-1.023, p < 0.001) in multivariable Cox models. Age (sHR 1.007, 95% CI 1-1.013, p = 0.049) was substantially related to a significantly increased risk of CSM in competing risk models.

Conclusion

Age had a non-linear U-shaped relationship with the presence of BCSBMs and a linear relationship with BCSBMs mortality.

Clair J, Chen MM, Vasquez M, Fan X, van Deen WK, Haile RW, Daskivich TJ, Zumsteg ZS, Braunstein GD, Sacks WL. Expanded Parameters in Active Surveillance for Low-risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial

Importance

Unlike for prostate cancer, active surveillance for thyroid cancer has not achieved wide adoption. The parameters by which this approach is feasible are also not well defined, nor is the effect of patient anxiety.

Objective

To determine if expanded size/growth parameters for patients with low-risk thyroid cancer are viable, as well as to assess for cohort differences in anxiety.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective nonrandomized controlled trial was conducted at a US academic medical center from 2014 to 2021, with mean [SD] 37.1 [23.3]-month follow-up. Of 257 patients with 20-mm or smaller Bethesda 5 to 6 thyroid nodules, 222 (86.3%) enrolled and selected treatment with either active surveillance or immediate surgery. Delayed surgery was recommended for size growth larger than 5 mm or more than 100% volume growth. Patients completed the 18-item Thyroid Cancer Modified Anxiety Scale over time.

Interventions

Active surveillance.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cumulative incidence and rate of size/volume growth.

Results

Of the 222 patients enrolled, the median (IQR) age for the study population was 46.8 (36.6-58) years, and 76.1% were female. Overall, 112 patients (50.5%) underwent treatment with active surveillance. Median tumor size was 11.0 mm (IQR, 9-15), and larger tumors (10.1-20.0 mm) comprised 67 cases (59.8%). One hundred one (90.1%) continued to receive treatment with active surveillance, 46 (41.0%) had their tumors shrink, and 0 developed regional/distant metastases. Size growth of more than 5 mm was observed in 3.6% of cases, with cumulative incidence of 1.2% at 2 years and 10.8% at 5 years. Volumetric growth of more than 100% was observed in 7.1% of cases, with cumulative incidence of 2.2% at 2 years and 13.7% at 5 years. Of 110 patients who elected to undergo immediate surgery, 21 (19.1%) had equivocal-risk features discovered on final pathology. Disease severity for all such patients remained classified as stage I. Disease-specific and overall survival rates in both cohorts were 100%. On multivariable analysis, immediate surgery patients exhibited significantly higher baseline anxiety levels compared with active surveillance patients (estimated difference in anxiety scores between groups at baseline, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22-0.55; P < .001). This difference endured over time, even after intervention (estimated difference at 4-year follow-up, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.21-0.79; P = .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this nonrandomized controlled trial suggest that a more permissive active surveillance strategy encompassing most diagnosed thyroid cancers appears viable. Equivocal-risk pathologic features exist in a subset of cases that can be safely treated, but suggest the need for more granular risk stratification. Surgery and surveillance cohorts possess oppositional levels of worry, elevating the importance of shared decision-making when patients face treatment equivalence.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02609685.

Based on different immune responses under the glucose metabolizing type of papillary thyroid cancer and the response to anti-PD-1 therapy

Glucose metabolism-related genes play an important role in the development and immunotherapy of many tumours, but their role in thyroid cancer is ambiguous. To investigate the role of glucose metabolism-related genes in the development of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and their correlation with the clinical outcome of PTC, we collected transcriptomic data from 501 PTC patients in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We performed nonnegative matrix decomposition clustering of 2752 glucose metabolism-related genes from transcriptome data and classified PTC patients into three subgroups (C1 for high activation of glucose metabolism, C2 for low activation of glucose metabolism and C3 for moderate activation of glucose metabolism) based on the activation of different glucose metabolism-related genes in 10 glucose metabolism-related pathways. We found a positive correlation between the activation level of glucose metabolism and the tumour mutation burden (TMB), neoantigen number, mRNA stemness index (mRNAsi), age, and tumour stage in PTC patients. Next, we constructed a prognostic prediction model for PTC using six glucose metabolism-related genes (PGBD5, TPO, IGFBPL1, TMEM171, SOD3, TDRD9) and constructed a nomogram based on the risk score and clinical parameters of PTC patients. Both the prognostic risk prediction model and nomogram had high stability and accuracy for predicting the progression-free interval (PFI) in PTC patients. Patients were then divided into high-risk and low-risk groups by risk score. The high-risk group was sensitive to paclitaxel and anti-PD-1 treatment, and the low-risk group was sensitive to sorafenib treatment. We found that the high-risk group was enriched in inflammatory response pathways and associated with high level of immune cell infiltration. To verify the accuracy of the prognostic prediction model, we knocked down PGBD5 in PTC cells and found that the proliferation ability of PTC cells was significantly reduced. This suggests that PGBD5 may be a relatively important oncogene in PTC. Our study constructed a prognostic prediction model and classification of PTC by glucose metabolism-related genes, which provides a new perspective on the role of glucose metabolism in the development and immune microenvironment of PTC and in guiding chemotherapy, targeted therapy and immune checkpoint blockade therapy of PTC.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a population-based study

Objective

Thyroid carcinoma (TC) is the most common endocrine tumor in the human body. Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) accounts for more than 80% of thyroid cancers. Accurate prediction of elderly PTC can help reduce the mortality of patients. We aimed to construct a nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with PTC.

Methods

Patient information was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to screen the independent risk factors for patients with PTC. The nomogram of elderly patients with PTC was constructed based on the multivariate Cox regression model. We used the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curve to test the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of the model.

Results

A total of 14,138 elderly patients with PTC were included in this study. Patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly divided into a training set (N = 7379) and a validation set (N = 3141), and data from 2016 to 2018 were divided into an external validation set (N = 3618). Proportional sub-distribution hazard model showed that age, sex, tumor size, histological grade, TNM stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for prognosis. In the training set, validation set and external validation set, the C-index was 0.87(95%CI: 0.852–0.888), 0.891(95%CI: 0.866–0.916) and 0.931(95%CI:0.894–0.968), respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. Calibration curves and AUC suggest that the prediction model has good discrimination and accuracy.

Conclusions

We constructed a new nomogram to predict CSS in elderly patients with PTC. Internal cross-validation and external validation indicate that the model has good discrimination and accuracy. The predictive model can help doctors and patients make clinical decisions.

Update and validation of a diagnostic model to identify prevalent malignant lesions in esophagus in general population

BACKGROUND

Previous risk prediction models taking esophageal malignant lesions detected during endoscopy as the primary outcome are not always sufficient to identify prevalent cases which are "overlooked" at screening. We aimed to update and externally validate our previous risk prediction model for malignant esophageal lesions by redefining the predicted outcome.

METHODS

15,192 individuals from the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China randomized controlled trial (ESECC trial, NCT01688908) were included as the training set, and 4576 participants from another population-based esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening cohort (Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study, AECCS) served as the external validation set. Lesions with severe dysplasia or worse diagnosed at chromoendoscopy or identified via follow-up within 1 year after screening were defined as main outcome. Logistic regressions were applied to reconstruct the questionnaire-based prediction model using information collected before screening, with Akaike Information Criterion to determine the model structure.

FINDINGS

The final prediction model included age and its quadratic term, family history of ESCC, low body mass index (≤22 kg/m²), use of coal or wood as main fuel for cooking, eating rapidly, and ingestion of leftover food. The area under the curve was 0·77 (95% CI: 0·73-0·80) and 0·71 (95% CI: 0·65-0·78) in the training and validation set. When screening the top 50% or 10% of high-risk individuals within population, the detection rates can be increased in both cohorts, as compared to universal screening.

INTERPRETATION

The described tool may promote the efficiency of current national screening programs for ESCC and contribute to a precision screening strategy in high-risk regions in China.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626, 81773501), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC2500405), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204) and the Beijing Nova Program (Z201100006820093). Sponsors had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation of data.

Active Surveillance Versus Thyroid Surgery for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: A Systematic Review

Background: Active surveillance has been proposed as an appropriate management strategy for low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), due to the typically favorable prognosis of this condition. This systematic review examines the benefits and harms of active surveillance vs. immediate surgery for DTC, to inform the updated American Thyroid Association guidelines. Methods: A search on Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central was conducted in July 2021 for studies on active surveillance vs. immediate surgery. Studies of surgery vs. no surgery for DTC were assessed separately to evaluate relevance to active surveillance. Quality assessment was performed, and evidence was synthesized narratively. Results: Seven studies (five cohort studies [N = 5432] and two cross-sectional studies [N = 538]) of active surveillance vs. immediate surgery, and seven uncontrolled treatment series of active surveillance (N = 1219) were included. One cross-sectional study was rated fair quality, and the remainder were rated poor quality. In patients with low risk (primarily papillary), small (primarily ≤1 cm) DTC, active surveillance, and immediate surgery were associated with similar, low risk of all-cause or cancer-specific mortality, distant metastasis, and recurrence after surgery. Uncontrolled treatment series reported no cases of mortality in low-risk DTC managed with active surveillance. Among patients managed with active surveillance, rates of tumor growth were low; rates of subsequent surgery varied and primarily occurred due to patient preference rather than tumor progression. Four cohort studies (N = 88,654) found that surgery associated with improved all-cause or thyroid cancer mortality compared with nonsurgical management, but findings were potentially influenced by patient age and tumor risk category and highly susceptible to confounding by indication; eligibility for, and receipt of, active surveillance; and timing of surgery was unclear. Conclusions: In patients with small low-risk (primarily papillary) DTC, active surveillance and immediate surgery may be associated with similar mortality, risk of recurrence, and other outcomes, but methodological limitations preclude strong conclusions. Studies of no surgery vs. surgery are difficult to interpret due to clinical heterogeneity and potential confounding factors and are unsuitable for assessing the utility of active surveillance. Research is needed to clarify the benefits and harms of active surveillance and determine outcomes in nonpapillary DTC, larger (>1 cm) cancers, and older patients.

Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: Active Surveillance Against Surgery. Considerations of an Italian Working Group From a Systematic Review

Introduction

Active surveillance is considered a viable option for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Since the last decade of the 20th century, this method has spread from Japan to other countries, but has not yet been fully accepted and validated by the major Western Scientific Societies. In 2016, a systematic review on the results of active surveillance was published, based on two articles that showed encouraging results. Other reviews published subsequently, were mainly based on articles from the Far East. The aim of this review is to assess the most recent results published from 2017 to 2020 on this subject.

Materials and Methods

A systematic literature search was performed on MEDLINE via PUBMED, Web of Science, and Scopus according to PRISMA criteria. The MESH terms “papillary thyroid microcarcinoma” and “active surveillance” were adopted. Tumor progression, secondary localizations, and quality of life were the main benchmarks.

Results

Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The increase in volume ranged from 2.7% and 23.2%; the occurrence of lymph node metastases from 1.3% to 29%; QoL was improved in both articles that addressed this topic. The level of evidence is considered low due to the retrospective and uncontrolled nature of most of the studies included in the review.

Conclusion

The evidence from the literature currently available on AS falls into two strands: a robust data set from the Japanese experience, and an initial experience from Western countries, whose data are still limited but which show a lack of substantial alerts against this practice. Further data is useful to validate the spread of Active Surveillance.

Surgery and Radioactive Iodine Therapeutic Strategy for Patients Greater Than 60 Years of Age with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Purpose: The purpose of the current study was to determine whether older patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) who received surgical treatment had a better cause-specific survival (CSS) than patients who were recommended surgery, but declined, and whether patients who underwent postoperative RAI-131 therapy had an impact on CSS based on TNM staging and number of lymph node metastases for all total or near-total thyroidectomy patients. Patients and Methods: This retrospective, population-based study analyzed the clinical data of 162 DTC patients from signal institution in China and 26,487 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program registry. The patients were divided into two groups (underwent surgery and surgery recommended, but not performed) in the SEER cohort. Furthermore, patients were grouped as follows: T4; N1b; M1; T1-3N0-1a; specific number of lymph node metastases; and total or near-total thyroidectomy. Results: The 120-month cause-specific survival (CSS) rate of women and men showed a gradual declining trend from 60–64 to ≥80 years of age in the group that underwent surgery. The CSS rate of women and men showed a marked downward and irregular trend with an increase in age in the recommended, but no surgery group in the SEER cohort. Univariate analysis indicated that the surgery group had a higher 120-month CSS in women in most stages and men, compared with the no surgery group in the SEER cohort. The analysis of the SEER cohort showed that RAI-131 therapy was associated with an improved 80-month CSS in T4/N1b/M1 women (P < 0.0183) and men (P < 0.0011). However, there were no CSS differences between the RAI-131 therapy and the no-RAI-131 group for the patients with T4/N1b/M1 (AJCC 7th) thyroid cancer in the Chinese cohort. There was no CSS difference in women or men between the T1-3N0 and T1-3N1a patients in the SEER cohort. And similar findings were observed in T1-3N1a patients in the Chinese cohort. There was no statistical difference between the two subgroups. Conclusions: Surgical treatment should be recommended for elderly DTC patients because surgery can lead to a better CSS. High-risk patients achieve a higher benefit-to-risk ratio with RAI-131 therapy. To avoid the adverse effects associated with RAI-131 therapy, a multidisciplinary discussion should be arranged for intermediate- and low-risk patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Follow-up Ultrasound for Incidental Thyroid Nodules on CT

Background: Thyroid nodules are common incidental findings on CT. Existing professional society recommendations, based primarily on expert opinion, advise follow-up ultrasound for nodules above size cut-offs in patients of all ages. Purpose: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of current recommendations as well as of other age- and size-based follow-up strategies for thyroid nodules incidentally detected on CT, using a simulation model. Methods: By using a simulation model with 1,000,000 adult patients with nodules measuring ≤40 mm and having no suspicious features, we evaluated size cut-offs from 5 to 25 mm under an age maximum from 25 to 65 years, as well as follow-up versus no follow-up above the age maximum. For each strategy, patient survival was determined by disease-specific and baseline mortality rates, as well as surgical mortality. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were tabulated. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed varying model parameters. Results: All cost-effective strategies recommended no follow-up for patients above the age cut-offs (which varied from 25 to 65 years). In the base case simulation, 8 strategies were cost-effective under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Of these, the strategy yielding the highest QALYs was follow-up for patients <60 years old with nodules ≥10 mm and no follow-up for patients ≥60 years old, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $50,196/QALY (95% CI $39,233 - $67,479). In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, if the 10-year disease-specific survival of untreated cancer was >94% of patients with treated cancer, then no follow-up for any nodules was optimal. Conclusion: Follow-up ultrasound for thyroid nodules incidentally detected on CT is likely not cost-effective in older patients. Follow-up for most thyroid nodules in younger patients may be cost-effective. Clinical Impact: Future societal recommendations may account for the limited benefit of obtaining follow-up for incidental thyroid nodules on CT in older patients.

Highly accurate diagnosis of papillary thyroid carcinomas based on personalized pathways coupled with machine learning

Thyroid nodules are neoplasms commonly found among adults, with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) being the most prevalent malignancy. However, current diagnostic methods often subject patients to unnecessary surgical burden. In this study, we developed and validated an automated, highly accurate multi-study-derived diagnostic model for PTCs using personalized biological pathways coupled with a sophisticated machine learning algorithm. Surprisingly, the algorithm achieved near-perfect performance in discriminating PTCs from non-tumoral thyroid samples with an overall cross-study-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.999 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.995-1) and a Brier score of 0.013 on three independent development cohorts. In addition, the algorithm showed excellent generalizability and transferability on two large-scale external blind PTC cohorts consisting of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), which is the largest genomic PTC cohort studied to date, and the post-Chernobyl cohort, which includes PTCs reported after exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl accident. When applied to the TCGA cohort, the model yielded an AUROC of 0.969 (95% CI: 0.950-0.987) and a Brier score of 0.109. On the post-Chernobyl cohort, it yielded an AUROC of 0.962 (95% CI: 0.918-1) and a Brier score of 0.073. This algorithm also is robust against other various types of clinical scenarios, discriminating malignant from benign lesions as well as clinically aggressive thyroid cancer with poor prognosis from indolent ones. Furthermore, we discovered novel pathway alterations and prognostic signatures for PTC, which can provide directions for follow-up studies.

Incidence and Mortality Risk Spectrum Across Aggressive Variants of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Importance

While well-differentiated papillary thyroid carcinoma (WDPTC) outcomes have been well characterized, the prognostic implications of more aggressive variants are far less defined. The rarity of these subtypes has led to their consolidation as intermediate risk for what are in fact likely heterogeneous diseases.

Objective

To analyze incidence, clinicopathologic characteristics, and outcomes for aggressive variants of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from 2000 to 2016 from hospital-based and population-based US cancer registries to analyze aggressive PTC variants, including diffuse sclerosing (DSV), tall-cell (TCV), insular, and poorly differentiated (PDTC) subtypes. These variants were compared against WDPTC and anaplastic cases. Data analysis was conducted from January 2019 to October 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-adjusted incidence was calculated via annual percentage change (APC) using the weighted least-squares method. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were analyzed via Cox regression. Propensity-score matching was used to adjust survival analyses for clinical and demographic covariates.

Results

Collectively, 5447 aggressive PTC variants were identified (including 415 DSV, 3339 TCV, 362 insular, and 1331 PDTC cases), as well as 35 812 WDPTC and 2249 anaplastic cases. Over the study period, a substantial increase in aggressive variant incidence was observed (APC, 9.1 [95% CI, 7.33-10.89]; P < .001), surpassing the relative increases observed in WDPTC (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 3.98-6.12]; P < .001) and anaplastic cases (APC, 1.9 [95% CI, 0.75-3.05]; P = .003; parallelism P < .007). Survival varied markedly based on histologic subtype, with a wide spectrum of mortality risk noted; 10-year overall survival was 85.4% (95% CI, 84.6%-86.3%) in WDPTC, 79.2% (95% CI, 73.6%-85.3%) in DSV, 71.9% (95% CI, 68.4%-75.6%) in TCV, 45.1% (95% CI, 40.2%-50.6%) in PDTC, 27.9% (95% CI, 20.0%-38.9%) in the insular variant, and 8.9% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.6%) in anaplastic cases (P < .001). These differences largely persisted even after adjusting for inherent differences in baseline characteristics by multivariable Cox regression and propensity-score matching.

Conclusions and Relevance

An upsurge in aggressive PTC incidence was observed at a rate beyond that seen in WDPTC or anaplastic thyroid carcinoma. Moreover, long-term survival outcomes for aggressive PTC subgroups exhibit heterogeneous clinical behavior and a wide range of mortality risk, suggesting that treatment should be tailored to specific histologic subtypes. Given increasing prevalence and disparate outcomes, further investigation to identify optimal therapeutic strategies is needed in these diverse, understudied populations.

Prognostic Impact of Histologic Grade for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

While numerous factors affect prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), the comparative impact of histologic grade has not been well described. Moreover, indications for external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) remain imprecise. We evaluate clinicopathologic characteristics and outcomes for PTC stratified by grade.

METHODS

We profiled histologic grade for PTC (well differentiated, moderately differentiated, poorly differentiated) via hospital (National Cancer Database) and population-based (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registries. Cox regression was used to adjust for clinicopathologic covariates. Statistical interactions between subtypes and the effect of EBRT on survival were assessed.

RESULTS

Collectively, worsening clinicopathologic factors (age, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, nodal spread, M1 disease) and outcomes (disease-free survival, overall survival) correlated with less differentiated state, across all histologic grades (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed escalating hazard with loss of differentiation relative to well-differentiated PTC (moderately differentiated hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.41, p = 0.02; poorly differentiated HR 2.62, 95% CI 2.23-3.08, p < 0.001). Correspondingly, greater survival benefit was associated with EBRT for poorly differentiated cases (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.18-0.72, p = 0.004). This finding was upheld after landmark analysis to address potential immortal time bias (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.80, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening histologic grade in PTC is independently associated with parallel escalation in mortality risk, on a scale approximating or surpassing established thyroid cancer risk factors. On preliminary analysis, EBRT was associated with improved survival in the most aggressive or least differentiated subvariants. Further investigation is warranted to examine the efficacy of EBRT for select poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas.

Competing-Risks Model for Predicting the Postoperative Prognosis of Patients with Papillary Thyroid Adenocarcinoma Based on The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database

Background

The aim of this study was to identify accurate prognostic factors for postoperative papillary thyroid adenocarcinoma (PTAC) using a competing-risks model based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Material/Methods

Data on patients with PTAC who had received surgery between 2010 and 2015 in the SEER database were extracted. A univariate analysis was performed while considering competing risks using the cumulative incidence function, with Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curves of the incidence function for PTAC-specific death were calculated and then compared between 2 groups using Gray’s test. To identify the factors that affect the cumulative incidence of PTAC-specific death, a multivariate analysis using the Fine-Gray model was performed.

Results

The 8324 eligible surgical PTAC patients included 101 patients who died from PTAC and 129 patients who died from other causes. The univariate Gray’s test revealed that the cumulative incidence rate for events of interest was significantly affected (P<0.05) by age, sex, marital status, metastasis, differentiation grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, radiation status, chemotherapy status, regional lymph nodes removal, and tumor size. Multivariate competing-risks analyses showed that age, sex, metastasis, differentiation grade, radiation status, chemotherapy status, and tumor size were independent risk factors for the postoperative prognosis of PTAC patients (P<0.05). The results of multivariate Cox regression were different, with marital status also appearing as an independent risk factor.

Conclusions

This study established a competing-risks analysis model to evaluate the risk factors of surgical PTAC patients. Our findings may be useful for improving patient prognoses and decision-making when providing individualized treatments.

Lymphovascular invasion of papillary thyroid carcinoma revisited in the era of active surveillance

INTRODUCTION

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is associated with disease recurrence and compromised survival in patients with thyroid cancer. Nonetheless, LVI is not identifiable on preoperative ultrasound or cytologic assessment. We aimed to explore the clinicopathological features associated with LVI.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of our prospectively maintained database from 2009 to 2018. Multivariate analyses were performed to determine the associations between clinicopathological parameters and LVI. Generalized additive models were used to examine the nonlinear relationship between continuous variables and LVI.

RESULTS

A total of 795 patients were included in the analysis, and 174 (22%) had LVI. Patients' age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.982), tumor size (OR = 1.466), clinical lymphadenopathy (OR = 6.975), and advanced extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.938) were independently associated with LVI. In the subset analysis of 198 patients with available genetic information, tumor size (OR = 1.599), clinical lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.657), and TERT promoter mutation (OR = 4.726) were predictive of LVI. Among 573 patients who had no clinical lymphadenopathy or advanced extrathyroidal extension, tumor size was the only predictor of LVI. Tumor size >1.5 cm had an increased risk of LVI based on the generalized additive model plot and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

Tumor size is positively associated with the risk of LVI in papillary thyroid cancer. To avoid delayed treatment in patients with LVI, a tumor size of 1.5 cm may be considered as the safe upper limit for active surveillance.

[Thyroid nodules: The Guidelines of the American Thyroid Association from a European Perspective]

In Germany and in other regions with former iodine deficiency, thyroid nodules and nodular goiter are still much more frequent than in the U.S.A. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) has published 2015 revised guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer. For evaluation of suspected thyroid nodules the authors describe high, intermediate, low and very low suspicion pattern and recommend further fine needle aspiration cytology, depending on the pattern and the size of the nodule. The high suspicion pattern includes irregular margins of the nodule, which may be an important criterion for malignancy of solitary nodules. In nodular goiters with multiple nodules grown together and without clear margins, frequently observed in former iodine deficiency regions, irregular margins may not be a significant criterion for malignancy. Another pattern, hypoechogenicity, which is frequently seen in benign nodules in former iodine deficiency areas, is also not a clear criterion for malignancy. Only strong hypoechogenicity may indicate malignancy. Another difference relates to the recommendation of scintigraphy that according to the guideline is restricted to patients with decreased TSH. In regions with former iodine deficiency, it has been demonstrated that thyroid autonomy may be present even if TSH is in the lower normal range. Therefore, in Germany scintigraphy is recommended for preoperative evaluation of all patients with thyroid nodules or nodular goiter.

Understanding surgical decision-making in older adults with differentiated thyroid cancer: A discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND

Prior studies demonstrated that older adults tend to undergo less surgery for thyroid cancer. Our objective was to use a discrete choice experiment to identify factors influencing surgical decision-making for older adults with thyroid cancer.

METHODS

Active and candidate members of the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons were invited to participate in a web-based survey. Multinomial logistic regression was utilized to assess patient and surgeon factors associated with treatment choices.

RESULTS

Complete survey response rate was 25.7%. Most respondents were high-volume surgeons (88.5%) at academic centers (76.9%). Multinomial logistic regression demonstrated that patient age was the strongest predictor of management. Increasing age and comorbidities were associated with the choice for active surveillance (P = .000), not performing a lymphadenectomy in patients with nodal metastases (relative-risk ratio: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.2, P = .002 and relative-risk ratio: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1, P = .004, respectively), and recommending hemithyroidectomy versus total thyroidectomy for a cancer >4 cm (relative-risk ratio: 4.4, 95% CI: 2.5-7.9, P = .000 and relative-risk ratio: 3.4, 95% CI: 2.3-5.1, P = .000, respectively). Surgeons with ≥10 years of experience (relative-risk ratio: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.1-10.3, P = .039) favored total thyroidectomy for a cancer <4 cm, and nonfellowship trained surgeons (relative-risk ratio: 7.3, 95% CI: 1.3-42.2, P = .027) opted for thyroidectomy without lymphadenectomy for lateral neck nodal metastases.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the variation in surgical management of older adults with thyroid cancer and demonstrates the influence of patient age, comorbidities, surgeon experience, and fellowship training on management of this population.

Treatment Variation in Older Adults With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

The growth of the aging population coupled with the increasing incidence of thyroid cancer warrants a better understanding of thyroid cancer in older adults. We aimed to investigate the variation of treatment patterns and determine if the extent of surgery is associated with disease-specific mortality in older adults with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC).

METHODS

We performed a population-based study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 program to examine patients diagnosed with DTC between 2004 and 2015. Patients were stratified by age: younger adults (aged 18-54 y), middle adults (aged 55-64 y), older adults (aged 65-79 y), and super elderly (aged ≥80 y). Disease-specific mortality was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess associations between clinicopathologic characteristics and treatment patterns on disease-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 117,098 patients with DTC, 72,368 were younger adults, 23,726 middle adults, 18,119 older adults, and 2885 were super elderly. In patients with DTC, compared with younger adults, fewer middle, older, and super elderly adults underwent any surgery (99.0%, 98.4%, 97.4%, and 89.1%, respectively; P < 0.001) or received radioactive iodine (RAI; 48.7%, 42.5%, 39.7%, and 30.7%, respectively; P < 0.001). Furthermore, middle, older, and super elderly adults had higher risk of mortality from DTC (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.2-4.8, P < 0.001; HR: 7.6, 95% CI: 6.3-9.1, P < 0.001; and HR: 17.2, 95% CI: 13.8-21.3, P < 0.001, respectively). On multivariable Cox regression while adjusting for clinicopathologic confounders, management was a significant prognostic factor (no surgery HR: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.1-4.6, P < 0.001; and RAI HR: 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with DTC, fewer older adults (≥65 y) underwent surgery or treatment with RAI, and this was associated with a worse disease-specific survival. Surgical decision-making in the older population is complex, and future prospective studies are needed to assess this age-related treatment variation.

Early Diagnosis of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer Results Rather in Overtreatment Than a Better Survival

We are witnessing a rapid worldwide increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in the last thirty years. Extensive implementation of cancer screening and wide availability of neck ultrasound or other imaging studies is the main reason responsible for this phenomenon. It resulted in a detection of a growing number of clinically asymptomatic PTCs, mainly low-risk tumors, without any beneficial impact on survival. An indolent nature of low-risk PTC, particularly papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), and the excellent outcomes raise an ongoing discussion regarding the adequacy of treatment applied. The question of whether PTMC is overtreated or not is currently completed by another, whether PTMC requires any treatment. Current ATA guidelines propose less extensive preoperative diagnostics and, if differentiated thyroid cancer is diagnosed, less aggressive surgical approach and limit indications for postoperative radioiodine therapy. However, in intrathyroidal PTMCs in the absence of lymph node or distant metastases, active surveillance may constitute alternative management with a low progression rate of 1%-5% and without any increase in the risk of poorer outcomes related to delayed surgery in patients, in whom it was necessary. This review summarizes the current knowledge and future perspectives of active surveillance in low-risk PTC.