An Undetectable Postoperative Calcitonin Level Is Associated with Long-Term Disease-Free Survival in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: Results of a Retrospective Cohort Study

Disease-free survival and the prognostic factors affecting disease-free survival in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study

PURPOSE

Despite several factors that may have been associated with poor disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), only a few studies have evaluated the prognostic factors affecting DFS in MTC patients. Therefore, this study evaluated the prognostic factors affecting DFS, in a large number of patients with MTC.

METHODS

Patients treated for MTC were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were stratified as having persistent/recurrent disease and no evidence of disease (NOD) at the last follow-up. The factors affecting DFS after the initial therapy and during the follow-up period were investigated.

RESULTS

This study comprised 257 patients [females 160 (62.3%), hereditary disease 48 (18.7%), with a mean follow-up time of 66.8 ± 48.5 months]. Persistent/recurrent disease and NOD were observed in 131 (51%) and 126 (49%) patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, age > 55 (HR: 1.65, p = 0.033), distant metastasis (HR: 2.41, p = 0.035), CTN doubling time (HR: 2.7, p = 0.031), and stage III vs. stage II disease (HR 3.02, p = 0.048) were independent predictors of persistent/recurrent disease. Although 9 (8%) patients with an excellent response after the initial therapy experienced a structural recurrence, the absence of an excellent response was the strongest predictor of persistent/recurrent disease (HR: 5.74, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of an excellent response after initial therapy is the strongest predictor of a worse DFS. However, a significant proportion of patients who achieve an excellent response could experience a structural recurrence. Therefore, careful follow-up of patients, including those achieving an excellent response is essential.

Serum Biochemical Markers for Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: An Update

Introduction

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), a rare malignancy, requires early diagnosis for optimal patient outcomes. An important aspect of MTC diagnosis is the assessment of serum biomarkers. This review aimed to evaluate the use of serum biomarkers in the diagnosis, prognosis, and follow-up of MTC.

Methods

A thorough search of PubMed covering 1975 to 2022 was conducted to identify English-language articles on MTC serum biomarkers.

Results

The review revealed that calcitonin (Ctn) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) remain the most important serum biomarkers for MTC diagnosis and management. Despite limited studies on procalcitonin (PCT), its stability and ability to exclude interference from inflammation make it a valuable potential marker of MTC. Although the positive rate of serum CA19-9 levels in MTC patients was not high, it can be used as an indicator of poor prognosis in advanced MTC. Other serum markers, including chromogranin A, gastrin-releasing peptide precursor, and neurospecific enolase, did not show any unique value in MTC diagnosis and management.

Conclusion

Taken together, this review emphasized the importance of serum biomarkers, particularly Ctn and CEA, in the diagnosis and management of MTC. PCT shows promise as a valuable potential marker, whereas CA19-9 can be used as a prognostic indicator of advanced MTC. Further research is needed to validate the significance of these serum biomarkers in MTC and determine the effects of confounding factors on their levels. Clinicians should consider using these markers in MTC diagnosis, prognosis, and follow-up, particularly for patients with advanced disease.

Early postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio as a predictive marker for structural recurrence in sporadic medullary thyroid cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Calcitonin (Ctn) is widely used as a marker in the diagnosis, prognosis, and postoperative follow-up of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The prognostic value of postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio (CR), reflecting the change in Ctn level of response to initial treatment, remains uncertain in long-term disease outcomes. This study aims to determine the cut-off value of CR for predicting structural recurrence and assess the prognostic role of CR in patients with MTC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients with MTC in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) between 2000 and 2022. CR is defined as the ratio of postoperative Ctn level on the day of discharge divided by preoperative Ctn level. In order to determine the optimal cut-off value of CR, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. We evaluate the effect of CR on recurrence-free survival (RFS) by using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Then, a nomogram based on CR was constructed.

RESULTS

In total, 112 sporadic MTC patients were included in this study. The optimal cut-off value of CR that predicted disease recurrence was 0.125. Patients with CR≥0.125 showed significantly worse RFS than patients with CR <0.125, respectively (3-years RFS rate of 63.1 vs. 94.7%, 5-years RFS rate of 50.7 vs. 90.3%, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, CR was the strongest independent predictor of structural recurrence (HR: 5.050, 95% CI: 2.247-11.349, P <0.001). Tumor size (HR: 1.321, 95% CI: 1.010-1.726, P =0.042), multifocality (HR: 2.258, 95% CI: 1.008-5.058, P =0.048) and metastasized lymph nodes (HR: 3.793, 95% CI: 1.617-8.897, P <0.001) were also independent predictors of structural recurrence. The uncorrected concordance index (c-index) of the nomogram was 0.827 (95% CI, 0.729-0.925) for RFS, and bias-corrected c-index were similar. As compared to TNM stage, the nomogram based on CR provided better discrimination accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that CR is a strong prognostic marker to predict structural recurrence in patients with sporadic MTC. The nomogram incorporating CR provided useful prediction of RFS for patients with sporadic MTC to provide personalized treatment.