Stage-Dependent Death Hazard and Conditional Survival of Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer

Dynamic estimates of survival in patients with follicular thyroid cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have been conducted on the dynamic survival rates of follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). This study aimed to ascertain how the survival probability of patients with FTC changes over time.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, 10,617 patients diagnosed with FTC between 2000 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included. Actuarial disease-specific survival (DSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank test was used for comparisons. The annual hazard of mortality was determined using the hazard function, and the conditional survival (CS) was calculated using the life table method.

RESULTS

A total of 459 (4.3%) patients died of FTC, and the 5-year and 10-year DSS rates were 96.6 ± 0.2% and 94.6 ± 0.3%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in the DSS rate between patients with different SEER combined summary stages (P < 0.001). The annual hazard curve for cancer mortality in the entire study cohort displayed a steep downward trend with a slight peak at 2.5 years after diagnosis, followed by a gradual decline. Patients with distant metastases exhibited a higher mortality hazard curve and more notable declining trend. CS demonstrated an upward trend across the entire study population, with the most pronounced trend in patients with distant metastases.

CONCLUSION

Prognosis improved over time in a stage-dependent manner in patients with FTC after diagnosis. The most significant improvement was observed in the patients with distant metastases. Notably, dynamic survival estimations, such as death hazard and conditional survival analysis, provide more precise survival projections than traditional survival analysis for FTC survivors.

Tumor differentiation-dependent conditional survival of patients with operable thyroid cancer

Objective

Little is known about the changing risk profile of death and conditional survival in patients with operable thyroid cancer. This study aimed to investigate the annual hazard rate of cancer death, actuarial disease-specific survival (DSS), and conditional DSS in patients with thyroid cancer and explore the effects of tumor differentiation.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer (N = 132,354) between 2004 and 2019 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The hazard function was used to estimate the annual hazard rate of death. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for the calculation and between-group comparison of actuarial DSS, respectively. The life table was used to estimate the conditional DSS.

Results

A total of 1896 (1.4%) patients died due to thyroid cancer during the follow-up period. Patients with ATC (68.9%, 313/454) were more likely to die than those with PDTC (19.4%, 171/883) or DTC (1.1%, 1412/131017). For the entire cohort, patients with DTC and PDTC had excellent and relatively stable one-year conditional survival, respectively; patients with ATC had the worst one-year conditional survival, but they achieved the greatest improvements. The worst one-year conditional survival and the most obvious improvement were seen in patients with ATC regardless of any SEER Summary Stage.

Conclusion

Prognosis improved over time in a tumor differentiation-dependent manner in patients with operable thyroid cancer after diagnosis. This information provides more precise dynamic evaluations of the long-term prognosis of thyroid cancer survivors and paramount clinical implications for individualized treatment and surveillance.

Summary and update on the management of differentiated thyroid cancer in 2023

The 6-fold increase in the incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer over the past 30 years in industrialized countries can be mainly attributed to improved detection. At the same time, in addition to the excellent prognosis for low-risk cancers, improved survival in metastatic forms has been also reported, likely due to the progress made recently in the treatment of aggressive forms, for which there is now an extensive therapeutic arsenal. Today, clinical management of differentiated thyroid cancer represents a paradigm of precision oncology, with personalized, risk-adapted therapeutic strategies. This has led to therapeutic de-escalation in those forms with a good prognosis, while targeted treatments play an increasingly important role in the management of radioiodine-refractory or advanced cancers. While endocrinologists will not always have the opportunity to prescribe these treatments, they will be called on to support and monitor patients during treatment. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of treatment options for differentiated thyroid cancer in 2023.