Review of Existing Models to Predict Reductions in Neural Tube Defects Due to Folic Acid Fortification and Model Results Using Data from Cameroon

Modeled impacts of bouillon fortification with micronutrients on child mortality in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria

Micronutrient interventions can reduce child mortality. By applying Micronutrient Intervention Modeling methods in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, we estimated the impacts of bouillon fortification on apparent dietary adequacy of vitamin A and zinc among children and folate among women. We then used the Lives Saved Tool to predict the impacts of bouillon fortification with ranges of vitamin A, zinc, and folic acid concentrations on lives saved among children 6-59 months of age. Fortification at 250 µg vitamin A/g and 120 µg folic acid/g was predicted to substantially reduce vitamin A- and folate-attributable deaths: 65% for vitamin A and 92% for folate (Senegal), 36% for vitamin A and 74% for folate (Burkina Faso), and >95% for both (Nigeria). Zinc fortification at 5 mg/g would avert 48% (Senegal), 31% (Burkina Faso), and 63% (Nigeria) of zinc-attributable deaths. The addition of all three nutrients at 30% of Codex nutrient reference values in 2.5 g bouillon was predicted to save an annual average of 293 child lives in Senegal (3.5% of deaths from all causes among children 6-59 months of age), 933 (2.1%) in Burkina Faso, and 18,362 (3.7%) in Nigeria. These results, along with evidence on program feasibility and costs, can help inform fortification program design discussions.

Impacts of micronutrient intervention programs on effective coverage and lives saved: Modeled evidence from Cameroon

Policymakers are committed to improving nutritional status and to saving lives. Some micronutrient intervention programs (MIPs) can do both, but not to the same degrees. We apply the Micronutrient Intervention Modeling tool to compare sets of MIPs for (1) achieving dietary adequacy separately for zinc, vitamin A (VA), and folate for children and women of reproductive age (WRA), and (2) saving children's lives via combinations of MIPs. We used 24-h dietary recall data from Cameroon to estimate usual intake distributions of zinc and VA for children 6-59 months and of folate for WRA. We simulated the effects on dietary inadequacy and lives saved of four fortified foods and two VA supplementation (VAS) platforms. We estimated program costs over 10 years. To promote micronutrient-specific dietary adequacy, the economic optimization model (EOM) selected zinc- and folic acid-fortified wheat flour, VA-fortified edible oils, and bouillon cubes, and VAS via Child Health Days in the North macroregion. A different set of cost-effective MIPs emerged for reducing child mortality, shifting away from VA and toward more zinc for children and more folic acid for WRA. The EOM identified more efficient sets of MIPs than the business-as-usual MIPs, especially among programs aiming to save lives.