ARE WE MISSING LUPUS IN MALES? EVIDENCE OF COGNITIVE BIAS FROM A RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

Feedback Loop Failure Modes in Medical Diagnosis: How Biases Can Emerge and Be Reinforced

BACKGROUND

Medical diagnosis in practice connects to research through continuous feedback loops: Studies of diagnosed cases shape our understanding of disease, which shapes future diagnostic practice. Without accounting for an imperfect and complex diagnostic process in which some cases are more likely to be diagnosed correctly (or diagnosed at all), the feedback loop can inadvertently exacerbate future diagnostic errors and biases.

FRAMEWORK

A feedback loop failure occurs if misleading evidence about disease etiology encourages systematic errors that self-perpetuate, compromising future diagnoses and patient care. This article defines scenarios for feedback loop failure in medical diagnosis.

DESIGN

Through simulated cases, we characterize how disease incidence, presentation, and risk factors can be misunderstood when observational data are summarized naive to biases arising from diagnostic error. A fourth simulation extends to a progressive disease.

RESULTS

When severe cases of a disease are diagnosed more readily, less severe cases go undiagnosed, increasingly leading to underestimation of the prevalence and heterogeneity of the disease presentation. Observed differences in incidence and symptoms between demographic groups may be driven by differences in risk, presentation, the diagnostic process itself, or a combination of these. We suggested how perceptions about risk factors and representativeness may drive the likelihood of diagnosis. Differing diagnosis rates between patient groups can feed back to increasingly greater diagnostic errors and disparities in the timing of diagnosis and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A feedback loop between past data and future medical practice may seem obviously beneficial. However, under plausible scenarios, poorly implemented feedback loops can degrade care. Direct summaries from observational data based on diagnosed individuals may be misleading, especially concerning those symptoms and risk factors that influence the diagnostic process itself.

HIGHLIGHTS

Current evidence about a disease can (and should) influence the diagnostic process. A feedback loop failure may occur if biased "evidence" encourages diagnostic errors, leading to future errors in the evidence base.When diagnostic accuracy varies for mild versus severe cases or between demographic groups, incorrect conclusions about disease prevalence and presentation will result without specifically accounting for such variability.Use of demographic characteristics in the diagnostic process should be done with careful justification, in particular avoiding potential cognitive biases and overcorrection.

Evaluating Sex Differences in the Characteristics and Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

More frequent and severe lupus nephritis (LN) has been reported in men compared to women, but data are limited and inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of the literature to compare the histopathologic findings and outcomes between men and women with biopsy-proven LN.

Methods

A systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases was conducted through February 2021. Clinical information was extracted and synthesized from 25 studies that met inclusion criteria (1,210 men and 6,635 women). Pooled odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated via meta-analysis, and meta-regression was performed to assess the impact of several covariates, both using random-effects models.

Results

Twenty studies reported kidney histopathology, eleven reported kidney outcomes, and eight reported mortality rates. Men had greater odds of class IV ± V LN (OR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01-1.56), and the composite of end-stage kidney disease, persistent eGFR <15 mL/min or doubling of serum creatinine (OR 2.20, 95% CI: 1.59-3.06), and lower odds of complete remission (OR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.39-0.68). Mortality was not statistically significantly different between sexes (OR 1.50, 95% CI: 0.92-2.46). Meta-regression did not reveal statistically significant study-level relationships between sex differences in any of the covariates that could account for the greater odds of worse kidney outcome in males.

Conclusion

Our analysis confirms the association between male sex and increased severity of LN as well as worse kidney outcomes. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate this association and inform treatment strategies adapted to this population.

Impact of sex and gender on axSpA diagnosis and outcomes

Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) was historically considered a disease of men, largely due to the recognition of a more severe, progressive phenotype, ankylosing spondylitis (AS; or radiographic axSpA, r-axSpA) aiding the clinical diagnosis [1,2]. Data demonstrating the near equal prevalence of axSpA in women only started to emerge in the last decades, highlighting intrinsic differences in disease phenotype, and clinical and imaging characteristics between sexes, which partly explain the issue of underdiagnosis in women. Similar to the evolving understanding of spondyloarthritis and the diseases that term describes, the concepts of gender and sex also warrant further clarification to accurately assess their potential role in disease pathophysiology and phenotypic expression. This narrative review delves into the most recent evidence from the literature on the true prevalence of sex differences in axSpA, and the impact of sex and gender on diagnosis, disease characteristics and treatment response in this, still underserved, chronic disease.

Epidemiology and Damage Accrual of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Central Sweden: A Single-Center Population-Based Cohort Study Over 14 Years From Östergötland County

OBJECTIVE

Variations in prevalence and incidence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) within a geographically defined area of central Sweden over a time period of 14 years were examined. Longitudinal differences in disease activity, laboratory test results, and damage accrual were investigated.

METHODS

Adults (aged ≥18 years) residing in Östergötland County between 2008 and 2021 (mean adult population: 357,000 citizens) with confirmed SLE were identified and followed prospectively until death, December 31, 2021, or emigration. We estimated annual incidence per 100,000 inhabitants stratified by sex and age. Linear regression with year of diagnosis as the outcome assessed whether each clinical measurement at diagnosis varied over time.

RESULTS

Prevalence on December 31, 2021, was 71.5 of 100,000 (87% female). One hundred twenty-six new cases were identified during the study period, yielding a mean annual incidence of 3.0 of 100,000 inhabitants; this was higher in females (4.8/100,000) than in males (1.2/100,000). Mean age at diagnosis was 43.7 years (SD 17.3). Age at diagnosis and disease activity measures increased over the calendar year of diagnosis (P < 0.05) whereas disease manifestations, including lupus nephritis, did not vary significantly. Accrual of organ damage was demonstrated over time since diagnosis and stratified by sex, lupus nephritis, and corticosteroid-related damage. Approximately 40% developed damage within 5 years.

CONCLUSION

SLE prevalence and incidence estimates remained constant over 14 years, and disease phenotypes at SLE onset were similar. SLE was diagnosed also among older individuals with a smaller female-to-male ratio. Estimates of prevalence and incidence were comparable to previous Scandinavian reports but lower than observed in registry data from the US and the UK.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in a Biochemical Marker of Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity

OBJECTIVE

Racial and ethnic disparities in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity measures have been documented. We compared racial and ethnic differences in disease activity using multiple composite measures, including an objective measure, the multi-biochemical disease activity (MBDA) score.

METHODS

Data are derived from the University of California, San Francisco RA Cohort, a longitudinal observational cohort. Participants with at least one MBDA measure and self-reported race and ethnicity were included. Multivariable linear regression evaluated the association between race and ethnicity groups and mean MBDA score, adjusting for potential confounders, including symptom duration and medication use. Sensitivity analyses substituted the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and the Disease Activity Score-28 joints with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) for the MBDA in multivariable models.

RESULTS

We included 267 participants (86% female, mean age 52.7 ± 13.3 years). The majority were Latinx (n = 137; 51%), followed by Asian (n = 91; 34%). After adjustment, Latinx participants had the highest mean MBDA score (40.6 ± 2.1) compared with White participants at (32.8 ± 6.7). Black participants had the second highest mean MBDA score, followed by Asian participants (36.3 ± 5.3, 36.0 ± 2.7, respectively), although neither were significantly different from White participants. The trends observed for the CDAI and DAS28-ESR were similar to those for the MBDA.

CONCLUSION

We found significantly higher disease activity measured by the MBDA and DAS28-ESR in Latinx participants compared with White participants. We also found significantly higher disease activity in Asian participants compared with White participants with the DAS28-ESR. Our findings, although limited by the small number of White participants in the referent group, suggest that RA disease activity measures may be influenced by external factors that have differential impacts by racial and ethnic group.

The perspectives of 606 US dermatologists on active surveillance for low-risk basal cell carcinoma

In this survey study of over 600 US dermatologists, identical clinical scenarios (10mm primary asymptomatic BCC) were presented except for randomly varied patient characteristics including age, life expectancy, and tumor location. Most dermatologists (62%) recommended active surveillance for patients with advanced age (91 years) and a 1-year life expectancy. The odds ratio for choosing active surveillance was 20.31 (95% CI 14.10-35.30) comparing a patient with a 1-year life expectancy to a healthy patient.

Race, Ethnicity, and Disparities in the Risk of End-Organ Lupus Manifestations Following a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Diagnosis in a Multiethnic Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Data on the onset of lupus manifestations across multiple organ domains and in diverse populations are limited. The objective was to analyze racial and ethnic differences in the risk of end-organ lupus manifestations following systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnosis in a multiethnic cohort.

METHODS

The California Lupus Epidemiology Study (CLUES) is a longitudinal study of SLE. Data on major end-organ lupus manifestations were collected and categorized by organ system: renal, hematologic, neurologic, cardiovascular, and pulmonary. Multiorgan disease was defined as manifestations in ≥2 of these distinct organ systems. Kaplan-Meier curves assessed end-organ disease-free survival, and Cox proportional hazards regression estimated the rate of end-organ disease following SLE diagnosis, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, and self-reported race and ethnicity (White, Hispanic, Black, and Asian).

RESULTS

Of 326 participants, 89% were female; the mean age was 45 years. Self-reported race and ethnicity were 30% White, 23% Hispanic, 11% Black, and 36% Asian. Multiorgan disease occurred in 29%. Compared to White participants, Hispanic and Asian participants had higher rates, respectively, of renal (hazard ratio [HR] 2.9 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.8-4.7], HR 2.9 [95% CI 1.9-4.6]); hematologic (HR 2.7 [95% CI 1.3-5.7], HR 2.1 [95% CI 1.0-4.2]); and multiorgan disease (HR 3.3 [95% CI 1.8-5.9], HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.4-4.4]) following SLE diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

We found heightened risks of developing renal, hematologic, and multiorgan disease following SLE diagnosis among Hispanic and Asian patients with SLE, as well as a high burden of multiorgan disease among CLUES participants.