Development and validation of a predictive model to predict and manage drug shortages

Practice-enhancing publications about the medication-use process in 2021

PURPOSE

This article identifies, prioritizes, and summarizes published literature on the medication-use process (MUP) from calendar year 2021 that can impact health-system pharmacy daily practice. The MUP is the foundational system that provides the framework for safe medication utilization within the healthcare environment. The MUP is defined in this article as having the following components: prescribing/transcribing, dispensing, administration, and monitoring, and monitoring/medication reconciliation. Articles evaluating at least one step of the MUP were assessed for their usefulness toward practice improvement.

SUMMARY

A PubMed search was conducted in January 2022 for articles published in calendar year 2021 using targeted Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) keywords, and searches of the table of contents of selected pharmacy journals were conducted, providing a total of 7,178 articles. A thorough review identified 79 potentially practice-enhancing articles: 15 for prescribing/transcribing, 17 for dispensing, 4 for administration, 21 for monitoring, and 22 for monitoring/medication reconciliation. Ranking of the articles for importance by peers led to the selection of key articles from each category. The highest-ranked articles are briefly summarized, with a mention of their importance within health-system pharmacy. The other articles are listed for further review and evaluation.

CONCLUSION

It is important to routinely review the published literature and to incorporate significant findings into daily practice. This article assists in identifying and summarizing the most impactful publications. Health-system pharmacists have an active role in improving the MUP in their institution, and awareness of the significant published studies can assist in changing practice at the institutional level.

Impact of medicine shortages on hospital practice: role of a multidisciplinary medicine shortages team

Medicine shortages are an increasing issue, with broad public health implications for patients, health professionals and institutions. Despite national notification mechanisms involving sponsors and national regulators (e.g. Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration), shortages continue to be a significant workload in hospitals, particularly for pharmacy staff. In this article, we describe the implications of medicine shortages and a team approach to their management in an Australian public hospital. The medicine shortages team comprises senior pharmacists, a pharmacy technician, and a purchasing officer, in consultation with medical staff. A 10 week audit recorded 34 medicine shortages and/or discontinuations, comprising 49 usually stocked products. Shortages were more quickly identified by the purchasing officer using established relationships with suppliers, rather than relying on sponsor or government communication. Having a team systematically dealing with these shortages enables expertise in supply chains, finances, therapeutics, and medicine safety to be shared, to identify optimal interventions to mitigate patient risk.

Coping with drug shortages: A study of government-enterprise option cooperation stockpiling strategies for drugs in shortage considering API surrogate stockpiling subsidies

Drug shortage is a global problem, and the development of government-enterprise cooperative stockpiles of drugs in shortage, combining physical and production capacity, has become one of the most important means of coping with drug shortages. However, existing studies have tended to overlook the fact that shortages of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) have become an important constraint on production capacity stockpiling and that the lack of incentives and provisions for coordination of benefits have led to a double marginal effect of joint stockpiling by government and enterprises of drugs in shortage. Accordingly, this study introduced the option contract to the drug supply system composed of government and pharmaceutical enterprises and used the subsidy of API storage in lieu as an important initiative to incentivize the reserve of APIs, to construct a model of shortage drug reserve under the government's leadership. This study aims to improve the effect of government-enterprise joint stockpiling of drugs in shortage, which is of great theoretical and practical significance. According to the classification of production license types of pharmaceutical enterprises, this study established a three-level supply chain decentralized decision-making model consisting of the government, formulation enterprises, and API enterprises, and a two-level supply chain centralized decision-making model consisting of the government and API Formulation (API-F) integrated enterprises, respectively. By solving the inverse order derivation, the government-enterprise option cooperation conditions and optimal decision-making strategy were derived. The study results showed that: (i) The addition of enterprise API stockpiling mode can help the government conventional reserves, and enterprise production capacity reserves, broaden the way of drug reserves, and improve the effect of government-enterprise option cooperation; (ii) when the probability of drug shortages is high, the government should prefer the cooperation of API-F integrated enterprises, which is conducive to reducing intermediate links and government costs and improving the supply responsiveness to shortages of medicines; (iii) Setting appropriate government subsidies for API storage can incentivize enterprises to stockpile APIs and improve drug production capacity and physical supply response capability. This study took the problem of socialized stockpiling of drugs in shortage as an entry point and explored the problems and solution strategies in the government-enterprise cooperative stockpiling of drugs in shortage, which not only made some theoretical contributions to the application of options contract in the government-enterprise cooperative stockpiling of drugs in shortage but also provided new ideas and theoretical basis for the improvement of the stockpiling work of drugs in shortage.

Assessing the impact of the slow-release oral morphine drug shortages in Ontario, Canada: A population-based time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Slow-release oral morphine (SROM) is used to manage pain, and as opioid agonist treatment (OAT). Between 2017 and 2021 in Canada, several drug shortages occurred for Kadian© (SROM-24). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of these shortages on people's ability to remain on this medication.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based time series analysis of SROM-24 dispensed between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2021, in Ontario, Canada. Using interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) models, we evaluated the association between SROM-24 drug shortages and treatment discontinuation. Analyses were also stratified by the SROM-24 indication (pain or OAT).

RESULTS

We identified 22,479 SROM-24 recipients, of which one-third (33.9%) were aged 65 or above and just over half (51.9%) were female. In our primary analysis of monthly SROM-24 discontinuation, we observed a significant sustained monthly increase following the shortages in November 2019 (+0.29%/month; 95% CI: 0.16%, 0.43%; p < .001) with significant sudden, temporary changes following the shortages in March 2020 (+2.00%; 95% CI: 0.95%, 3.05%; p < .001), July 2021 (+3.53%; 95% CI: 2.20%, 4.86%; p < .001), and August 2021 (+4.98%; 95% CI: 3.49%, 6.47%; p < .001). Similar results were observed in our stratified analyses, with sustained high rates of discontinuation among people accessing SROM-24 as OAT.

CONCLUSIONS

The SROM-24 shortages resulted in significant treatment disruptions across all recipients. These findings have important implications for those with few treatment alternatives, including people using SROM-24 as OAT who are at risk of adverse outcomes following treatment disruptions.

Impact of medicine shortages on patients - a framework and application in the Netherlands

Background

Medicine shortages are often described in plain numbers, suggesting all shortages have a uniform impact. However, some shortages have a direct and serious effect on patients and need a prompt reaction from stakeholders. This study aims to create a broad framework to assess the impact of a shortage.

Method

We identified high impact shortages and selected exemplary shortages which we considered our learning cases. From five learning cases, we identified elements that had a potentially profound impact on one or more of these cases. We tested data saturation on the elements with another five test cases. Based on these elements, we created a framework to assess impact of shortages on patients and presented practical examples how to rate these different elements. Subsequently, we visualised the impact of these five learning cases on patients in radar charts.

Results

The five elements which we identified as potentially having a large impact were 1) alternative product, 2) disease, 3) susceptibility, 4) costs and 5) number of patients affected. The five learning cases rated high on different elements, leading to diverse and sometimes even opposite patterns of impact.

Conclusion

We created a framework for assessing the impact of a medicine shortage on patients by means of five key elements. By rating these elements, an indication of the impact can be obtained.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08765-x.