The impact of policy changes on consumer behaviour and alcohol consumption in Scania, Sweden 1999-2005

Revisiting the Swedish alcohol stasis after changes in travelers' allowances in 2004: petrol prices provide a piece of the puzzle

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In 2004, Sweden had to allow virtually unlimited private alcohol imports from other EU countries. Purchases from abroad in addition to the sales from Systembolaget stores (Sweden's alcohol retail monopoly) are a significant source of alcohol consumption in southern Sweden. However, survey studies designed to measure the expected increase in overall alcohol consumption in southern Sweden failed to detect a meaningful change. Since this was considered 'puzzling', this study aims to (at least partially) provide an explanation for this finding by testing an economic proposition, i.e., a coincidental and sudden increase in petrol prices reduced the affordability of private alcohol imports.

METHODS

Using monthly sales at the provincial level covering Jan 1997-Dec 2005 for beer and spirits, we employed a fixed-effect panel design. Two models were examined: (i) a model investigating the relationship between distance, petrol prices and alcohol sales before the liberalization, and (ii) a model investigating this relationship after the liberalization.

RESULTS

The model before the liberalization showed, as expected, that domestic alcohol sales decrease when petrol prices decrease. However, the model after the liberalization model revealed that the effect of petrol prices on beer sales depends on the (traveling) distance from the borders and, after full liberalization, the coefficients for petrol prices become positive. For spirits, the results were inconclusive.

CONCLUSION

In the aftermath of import liberalization of the Swedish alcohol market, increased petrol prices temporarily made private alcohol imports economically unattractive for consumers living close to the border. This may partly explain why, after that event, surveys did not detect the widely expected increase in self-reported alcohol consumption.

The impact of relaxed traveller allowances: Fixed-effects analyses of the associations between consumer behaviour and alcohol use

Aim:

To analyse to what extent the gradual relaxation of traveller allowances for alcoholic beverages 2001–2004 changed consumer behaviours and subsequent alcohol consumption patterns within a longitudinal panel data population study in Southern Sweden.

Methods:

General population random sample panel data study with repeated measurements were collected in 1999, in 2005, and in 2010 in the county of Scania. The study analyses answers from 9770 individuals, who in 1999 were 18–80 years old. A fixed-effects modelling was applied to assess the association between consumer behaviour and change in alcohol use across the study period.

Results:

Cross-border shopping for alcoholic beverages was associated, on average, with a 3.1% (p < 0.001) increase in alcohol use. Buying imported alcohol from a private person was associated with a mean increase of 2.6% (p < 0.001), with a total additive effect of 5.7%. Furthermore, when stratified for gender, age, and location, significant fixed effects were found. The magnitude was greater among women, younger and older ages, and in particular in the Northeast and Central regions. Both consumer behaviours – cross-border trading (OR 1.6, CI 95% 1.28–1.92) and buying alcohol from a private person (OR 1.4, CI 95% 1.12–1.73) – were significantly associated with heavy alcohol use.

Conclusion:

The fixed-effects analyses identified significant associations between consumer behaviours and alcohol consumption. The uptake of behaviours that developed because of a relaxation of the Swedish alcohol policy has contributed to an overall long-term increase in alcohol use and higher prevalence of heavy alcohol use within this general population study sample.

What happens to drinking when alcohol policy changes? A review of five natural experiments for alcohol taxes, prices, and availability

Natural experiments are an important alternative to observational and econometric studies. This paper provides a review of results from empirical studies of alcohol policy interventions in five countries: Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Sweden, and Switzerland. Major policy changes were removal of quotas on travelers' tax-free imports and reductions in alcohol taxes. A total of 29 primary articles are reviewed, which contain 35 sets of results for alcohol consumption by various subpopulations and time periods. For each country, the review summarizes and examines: (1) history of tax/quota policy interventions and price changes; (2) graphical trends for alcohol consumption and liver disease mortality; and (3) empirical results for policy effects on alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. We also compare cross-country results for three select outcomes-binge drinking, alcohol consumption by youth and young adults, and heavy consumption by older adults. Overall, we find a lack of consistent results for consumption both within- and across-countries, with a general finding that alcohol tax interventions had selective, rather than broad, impacts on subpopulations and drinking patterns. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.