Postprogression survival for first-line chemotherapy of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

Time-to-Event Endpoints in Imaging Biomarker Studies

Time-to-event endpoints are widely used as measures of patients' well-being and indicators of prognosis. In imaging-based biomarker studies, there are increasingly more studies that focus on examining imaging biomarkers' prognostic or predictive utilities on those endpoints, whether in a trial or an observational study setting. In this educational review article, we briefly introduce some basic concepts of time-to-event endpoints and point out potential pitfalls in the context of imaging biomarker research in hope of improving radiologists' understanding of related subjects. Besides, we have included some review and discussions on the benefits of using time-to-event endpoints and considerations on selecting overall survival or progression-free survival for primary analysis. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 5 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 3.

QALY-type preference and willingness-to-pay among end-of-life patients with cancer treatments: a pilot study using discrete choice experiment

PURPOSE

Quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is a dominant measurement of health gain in economic evaluations for pricing drugs. However, end-of-life (EoL) patients' preference for QALY gains in life expectancy (LE) and quality of life (QoL) during different disease stages remains unknown and is seldom involved in decision-making. This study aims to measure preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) towards different types of QALY gain among EoL cancer patients.

METHODS

We attributed QALY gain to four types, gain in LE and QoL, respectively, and during both progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS). A discrete choice experiment including five attributes (the four QALY attributes and one cost attribute) with three levels each was developed and conducted with 85 Chinese advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients in 2022. All levels were set with QALY gain/cost synthesised from research on anti-lung cancer drugs recently listed by Chinese National Healthcare Security Administration. Each respondent answered six choice tasks in a face-to-face interview. The data were analysed using mixed logit models.

RESULTS

Patients valued LE-related QALY gain in PFS most, with a relative importance of 81.8% and a WTP of $43,160 [95% CI 26,751 ~ 59,569] per QALY gain. Respondents consistently preferred LE-related to QoL-related QALY gain regardless of disease stage. Patients with higher income or lower education levels tended to pay more for QoL-related QALY gain.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a prioritised resource allocation to EoL-prolonging health technologies. Given the small sample size and large individual heterogeneity, a full-scale study is needed to provide more robust results.

EGFR inhibitor erlotinib plus monoclonal antibody versus erlotinib alone for first-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Immuno-combination therapy is emerging as an effective treatment for advanced non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). However, compared to monotherapy, such as monoclonal antibodies or kinase inhibitors, whether combination therapy can enhance antitumor efficacy or alleviate side effects remains unclear.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was undertaken using the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases to identify eligible studies concentrating on treatment with erlotinib or erlotinib plus monoclonal antibodies in NSCLC patients published between January 2017 and June 2022. The primary outcomes included progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), response rate (RR) and treatment-related adverse events (AEs).

RESULTS

Seven independent randomized, controlled clinical trials including 1513 patients were obtained for the final analysis. Erlotinib plus monoclonal antibodies was significantly associated with the improvement of PFS (hazards ratio [HR], 0.60; 95% CI 0.53-0.69; z = 7.59, P < 0.01) and with moderate performance regarding OS (HR, 0.81; 95% CI 0.58-1.13; z = 1.23, P = 0.22) and RR (odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% CI 0.98-1.59; z = 1.80, P = 0.07), irrespective of EGFR mutation status. In the safety evaluation, erlotinib plus monoclonal antibodies had a markedly higher occurrence of adverse events (AEs) of Clavien grade 3 or higher (OR, 3.32; 95% CI 2.66-4.15; z = 10.64, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Compared with erlotinib alone, combination therapy (erlotinib plus monoclonal antibodies) was associated with significantly improved PFS in NSCLC therapy, accompanied by increased treatment-related AEs.

REGISTRATION

Our systematic review protocol was registered in the PROSPERO international register of systematic reviews (CRD42022347667).

Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus chemotherapy as first-line therapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

First-line treatment with nivolumab plus ipilimumab has been shown to improve overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The current study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC from the perspective of Chinese healthcare system.

METHODS

A three state-transition Markov model was employed to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of nivolumab plus ipilimumab versus chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC. Key clinical data in the model were derived from Part 1 of the phase 3 CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826). Costs and utilities were obtained from published literatures. The main endpoints of the model were costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the model uncertainty.

RESULTS

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab was associated with an increase in overall cost of $95,867.82 and improved effectiveness of 0.98 QALYs compared with chemotherapy, yielding an ICER of $97,676.24 per QALY. In one-way sensitivity analysis, the variables that had the greatest influence on the ICER were hazard ratio for OS and body weight. In probabilistic analysis, nivolumab plus ipilimumab had a 0% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $37,663.26/QALY in China. However, the combination therapy would become cost-effective when the cost of nivolumab and ipilimumab were discounted by 65%.

CONCLUSION

First-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab treatment for advanced NSCLC was found to be not cost-effective compared with chemotherapy at a WTP threshold of $37,663.26/QALY in China.

Efficacy and safety analyses of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors combined with chemotherapy in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation

PURPOSE

Epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) combined with cytotoxic chemotherapy are highly effective in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with EGFR mutations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of this combination in advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation.

METHODS

Ninety-five advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation were enrolled in this study. Treatments with either EGFR-TKI monotherapy (T group, n = 61) or EGFR-TKI combined with chemotherapy (TC group, n = 34) were evaluated in relation to objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), median time to progression (TTP), and median overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in DCR between the treatment groups. The ORR was significantly improved in the TC group versus the T group (55.9% vs. 34.4%, P = 0.042). A higher median TTP was noted in TC group compared with T group (16.1 vs. 11.1 months, P = 0.002). Patients without brain metastases in TC group had a longer median OS than in T group (48.4 vs. 28.8 months, P = 0.003). However, there was a non-significant trend towards longer OS in TC group in the entire cohort (36.9 vs. 28.2 months, P = 0.078). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that clinical stage, brain metastases, EGFR21 L858R mutation, and T790M status at first progression were independent risk factors for OS. However, the incidence of grade 3 or higher adverse events were higher in the TC group than in the T group (32.4% vs. 13.1%, P = 0.025).

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that EGFR-TKIs combined with chemotherapy could significantly improve the ORR and TTP of advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation. Combination therapy may be a promising treatment for advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation without brain metastases.

Post-progression survival after atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide as first-line chemotherapy in small cell lung cancer has a significant impact on overall survival

BACKGROUND

The effect of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) may be significantly influenced by subsequent therapy for patients with extensive disease small cell lung cancer (ED-SCLC). Therefore, we evaluated the relationship between progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and OS of ED-SCLC patients treated with atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide as first-line therapy.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 57 patients with relapsed ED-SCLC treated with atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide (AteCE) as first-line chemotherapy between August 2019 and September 2020. The respective correlations between PFS-OS and PPS-OS following first-line AteCE treatment were examined at the individual patient level.

RESULTS

Spearman's rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.93, p < 0.05, R²  = 0.85) and that PFS moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.55, p < 0.05, R²  = 0.28). Performance status at relapse (0-1/≥2), number of cycles of atezolizumab maintenance therapy (<3/≥3), and platinum rechallenge chemotherapy all significantly positively correlated with PPS (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Upon comparing OS-PFS and OS-PPS in this patient population, OS and PPS were found to have a stronger correlation. These results suggest that performance status at relapse, atezolizumab maintenance, or chemotherapy rechallenge could affect PPS.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer after chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of first-line chemoradiotherapy for overall survival (OS) might be confounded by the subsequent treatments in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this study, we assessed the associations of progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS after chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced NSCLC using patient-level data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between January 2011 and December 2018, 45 patients with locally advanced NSCLC who had received first-line chemoradiotherapy and in whom recurrence occurred were analysed. The associations of PFS and PPS with OS were analysed at the individual level.

RESULTS

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analyses revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.72, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.54), whereas PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.58, p < 0.05, R² = 0.34). The Glasgow prognostic score and liver metastases at recurrence were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The current analysis of individual-level data of patients treated with first-line chemoradiotherapy implied that PPS had a higher impact on OS than PFS in patients with locally advanced NSCLC. Additionally, current perceptions indicate that treatment beyond progression after first-line chemoradiotherapy might strongly affect OS.

Post-Progression Survival Highly Influences Overall Survival in Driver Gene Mutation/Translocation Negative or Unknown Type of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

In stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is considered operable, surgical resection is the most efficacious treatment and is considered to provide a cure. However, after complete surgical resection, approximately 50% of patients with stage I-IIIA NSCLC experience recurrence and death. Once postoperative recurrence of NSCLC occurs, the prognosis is significantly poor, and the course of treatment after recurrence may influence overall survival (OS). Consequently, we investigated the relationship between relapse-free survival (RFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and OS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC with driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status.

METHODS

Between January 2007 and September 2019, 101 patients with driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status of NSCLC who underwent complete resection and in whom recurrence occurred were analyzed. The associations between RFS, PPS, and OS were analyzed at the individual patient level.

RESULTS

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analyses revealed that PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.83, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.71), whereas RFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.65, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.48). In the multivariate analysis, performance status at relapse, administration of immune checkpoint inhibitors, and radiotherapy for oligo-recurrences were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Current analysis of individual-level data of patients who underwent complete resection implied that PPS had a higher impact on OS than RFS in patients with postoperative recurrence of driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status of NSCLC. Additionally, current perceptions indicate that treatment beyond progression after complete surgical resection might strongly affect OS.

Cost-effectiveness of adding daratumumab or bortezomib to lenalidomide plus dexamethasone for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma survival rates are steadily increasing due to availability of new drug classes used in combination with corticosteroids and chemotherapy. The latest treatments are daratumumab or bortezomib in combination therapy with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd). Daratumumab, a CD38-targeted, human IgG1k monoclonal antibody, and bortezomib, a proteasome inhibitor, are both approved as regimens for transplant-ineligible relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). There have been cost-effectiveness analyses for daratumumab and bortezomib use in RRMM, but there are limited data regarding cost-effectiveness for daratumumab or bortezomib use in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients who are ineligible for stem cell transplantation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of 3 separate regimens-(1) daratumumab, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone triple therapy (DRd); (2) bortezomib and lenalidomide plus dexamethasone triple therapy (VRd); and (3) lenalidomide plus dexamethasone (Rd)-in patients with multiple myeloma ineligible for autologous stem cell transplant. METHODS: A 2-state Markov model was developed using a US health system perspective and lifetime time horizon. Transition probabilities were calculated from the latest progression-free survival data reported in two phase 3 randomized controlled trials-MAIA and SWOG S0777-and extrapolated using a Weibull distribution based on the Hoyle Henley method. National data sources were used to obtain costs in 2019 US dollars, discounted by 3%. Health state utilities from available literature were applied to each health state. Utility decrements for adverse events were individualized in each choice branch with utility decrement weighted by the percentage of patients who experienced the adverse event in the MAIA and SWOG S0777 trials. We assumed a treatment would be cost-effective at a willingness to pay (WTP) of $150,000 per progression-free quality-adjusted life-year ($/PFQALY). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Rd standard therapy had the lowest overall cost at $329,867, followed by VRd at $385,434 and DRd with the highest overall total cost at $626,900. Rd was estimated to result in the least amount (1.24) of PFQALYs, followed by VRd at 1.35 PFQALYs and DRd at 1.52 PFQALYs. With a WTP threshold of $150,000 per PFQALY, VRd was not cost-effective compared with Rd standard therapy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $530,256 per PFQALY. DRd was not cost-effective compared with VRd (ICER = $1,396,318 per PFQALY), nor as compared with Rd standard therapy (ICER = $1060,832). One-way sensitivity analysis showed that our model was sensitive to cost of DRd, VRd, and Rd drugs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that only at a WTP threshold of $550,000 was VRd cost-effective for 40% of iterations. There were no reasonable WTP thresholds, up to $800,00, where DRd became more cost-effective than VRd. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first analysis to directly compare the cost-effectiveness of 3 acceptable chemotherapy treatment regimens for patients with multiple myeloma ineligible for autologous stem cell transplant. Neither DRd nor VRd triple therapy were found to be cost-effective vs Rd. Further cost-effectiveness analyses that include overall survival data for daratumumab and bortezomib triple therapies are needed to demonstrate an ICER in QALYs. DISCLOSURES: No funding was received for this study. At the time of this study, Narsipur was a UCSF-Actelion Clinical Research and Medical Communications Fellow, unrelated to this study. The other authors have nothing to disclose.

Course of postoperative relapse in non-small cell lung cancer is strongly associated with post-progression survival

Background

For early‐stage non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), surgical resection is considered the most effective treatment strategy and curative treatment. Unfortunately, even after complete resection, almost half of all patients with stage I–IIIA NSCLC relapse and die. Although the possibility of a cure for postoperative recurrence of NSCLC is significantly low, the course of subsequent treatment can possibly affect overall survival (OS). Here, we examined the association of relapse‐free survival (RFS) and post‐progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC.

Methods

We evaluated 128 patients with NSCLC who underwent complete resection between January 2007 and December 2018. The association between RFS and PPS on OS was examined at the patient level.

Results

Spearman's rank correlation and linear regression analyses revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.83, p < 0.05, R² = 0.72), whereas RFS was weakly associated with OS (r = 0.56, p < 0.05, R² = 0.37). Additionally, the performance status at relapse and administration of tyrosine kinase inhibitors were significantly correlated with PPS.

Conclusions

PPS was significantly more strongly correlated with OS than was RFS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC. These results suggest that therapy following postoperative recurrence affects OS. Therefore, it is necessary to validate these promising results in a large prospective study.

Bevacizumab plus erlotinib versus erlotinib alone in Japanese patients with advanced, metastatic, EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NEJ026): overall survival analysis of an open-label, randomised, multicentre, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Bevacizumab is a promising candidate for combination treatment with epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (eg, erlotinib), which could improve outcomes for patients with metastatic EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We have previously shown in NEJ026, a phase 3 trial, that the combination of bevacizumab plus erlotinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival compared with erlotinib alone in these patients. In further analyses, we aimed to examine the effects of bevacizumab-erlotinib on overall survival, time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death, and quality of life.

METHODS

This open-label, randomised, multicentre, phase 3 trial (NEJ026) was done in 69 hospitals and medical, community-based centres across Japan. Eligible patients had stage IIIB, stage IV, or postoperative recurrent, EGFR-mutant (exon 19 deletion or exon 21 Leu858Arg point mutation) NSCLC, had not previously received systemic chemotherapy, and were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated randomisation sequence and minimisation to receive either 150 mg oral erlotinib once daily plus 15 mg/kg intravenous bevacizumab once every 21 days, or 150 mg oral erlotinib once daily, until disease progression or intolerable toxicity. Randomisation was stratified according to sex, smoking status, EGFR mutation subtype, and clinical disease stage. All participants, investigators, and study personnel (including those assessing outcomes) were unmasked to treatment allocation. We report the secondary outcomes of overall survival and quality of life (the period from enrolment to confirmation of a minimally important difference on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire [EORTC QLQ]-C30), and the exploratory outcome of time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death. Overall survival and the exploratory outcome were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population, which comprised all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of the study drug and had response evaluations. Quality of life was analysed in patients in the modified intention-to-treat population who had completed the quality of life questionnaires. The trial is registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry, UMIN000017069, and the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials, jRCTs031180056, and is currently closed.

FINDINGS

Between June 3, 2015, and Aug 31, 2016, 228 patients were enrolled. 112 patients who received bevacizumab-erlotinib and 112 who received erlotinib only were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. At data cutoff (Nov 30, 2019) and a median follow-up of 39·2 months (IQR 23·9-43·5), the median overall survival was 50·7 months (95% CI 37·3-not estimable [NE]) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 46·2 months (38·2-NE) in the erlotinib-only group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·007, 95% CI 0·681-1·490; p=0·97). In analysis of the exploratory outcome, after a median follow-up of 23·9 months (IQR 14·2-39·1), the median time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death was 28·6 months (95% CI 22·1-35·9) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 24·3 months (20·4-29·1) in the erlotinib-only group (HR 0·773, 95% CI 0·562-1·065). The median time between enrolment and confirmation of a minimally important difference on the EORTC QLQ-C30 was 6·0 months (95% CI 5·2-11·3) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 8·3 months (5·7-13·9) in the erlotinib-only group (p=0·47).

INTERPRETATION

The addition of bevacizumab to erlotinib did not prolong survival in patients with metastatic EGFR-mutant NSCLC, but both treatment groups had relatively long survival durations. Why the addition of bevacizumab to erlotinib did not affect overall survival is unclear, but it is possible that the beneficial effects of combination therapy were not seen because overall survival was influenced by treatment regimens used after disease progression.

FUNDING

Chugai Pharmaceutical.

Post-Progression Survival Influences Overall Survival among Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Undergoing First-Line Pembrolizumab Monotherapy

BACKGROUND

Among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the impact of first-line treatment on overall survival (OS) may be influenced by subsequent therapies. Thus, using patient-level data, we assessed the relationships of progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS among patients with high-programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 133 patients with high PD-L1 expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC at 6 Japanese centers between February 2017 and December 2018. The correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were evaluated at the patient level.

RESULTS

Linear regression analyses and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.76, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.65), while PFS was only moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.71, p < 0.05, and R2 = 0.4). Furthermore, PPS was significantly associated with performance status at the end of pembrolizumab monotherapy, as well as the use of platinum-based combination chemotherapy after pembrolizumab monotherapy (both p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with high PD-L1 expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC, PPS was more strongly correlated with OS, relative to the relationship between PFS and OS. Therefore, subsequent treatment appears to significantly influence OS in patients with disease progression following first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy.

The use of bevacizumab is correlated with improved post-progression survival in advanced recurrent ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

The recent improvements in anti-cancer therapy following first-line treatment can potentially impact post-progression survival. We evaluated the factors that influence post-progression survival in advanced recurrent ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Eighty-nine patients who underwent first-line treatment between June 2005 and December 2017 were included. The post-progression survival was defined as the difference between overall survival and initial progression-free survival. The effects of age, histology, stage, optimal surgery, secondary debulking surgery, bevacizumab administration, platinum sensitivity, and olaparib maintenance in recurrence were compared and independent risk factors were determined.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 60.0 months (range: 2-181). Platinum-sensitive recurrence had longer post-progression survival than platinum-resistant (P < 0.001). Inclusion of bevacizumab in first-line treatment did not produce a significant difference in post-progression survival (P = 0.462). Secondary debulking surgery (P = 0.013), bevacizumab administration (P < 0.001), and olaparib maintenance (P = 0.001) during recurrence increased post-progression survival. In multivariate analysis, histologies other than serous or endometrioid (hazard ratio = 2.389; 95% confidence interval = 1.200-4.754; P = 0.013) and non-bevacizumab usage in recurrence (hazard ratio = 4.484; 95% confidence interval = 1.939-10.370; P < 0.001) were independently correlated with poorer prognosis. Bevacizumab administration beyond progressive disease elicited improved post-progression survival (P < 0.001). In patients receiving bevacizumab in first-line treatment, exclusion of bevacizumab in the recurrent therapy (hazard ratio = 5.507; 95% confidence interval = 2.301-12.124; P < 0.001) was independently correlated with poorer prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The continuous use of bevacizumab beyond progressive disease improves post-progression survival suggesting its important role in first-line and recurrence treatment for ovarian cancer.

Post-Progression Survival Is Strongly Associated with Overall Survival in Patients Exhibiting Postoperative Relapse of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Sensitizing EGFR Mutations

Background and Objective: Patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring sensitizing epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations show a good response to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). The subsequent treatments influence the evaluability of the efficacy of front-line therapy on overall survival (OS). Consequently, we evaluated the associations of relapse-free survival (RFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients who exhibited postoperative relapse of EGFR-mutated NSCLC. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the data of 35 patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC who underwent complete resection between January 2007 and June 2019. The correlations of RFS and PPS with OS were evaluated at the individual patient level. Results: Linear regression and Spearman’s rank correlation analyses demonstrated that the PPS highly correlated with OS (r = 0.91, p < 0.05, R² = 0.85), whereas the RFS weakly associated with OS (r = 0.36, p < 0.05, R² = 0.25). Age and performance status at relapse were significantly associated with PPS. Conclusion: Overall, PPS was more strongly and significantly associated with OS than RFS. These results suggest that the OS of our cohort may be affected by treatments, besides postoperative relapse. However, larger-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Skeletal Muscle Volume Is an Independent Predictor of Survival after Sorafenib Treatment Failure for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Few studies exist on the relationship between post-progression survival (PPS) and skeletal muscle volume in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving sorafenib. This study aimed to analyze the effects of muscle volume on clinical outcomes. We retrospectively enrolled 356 HCC patients. Various clinical parameters, including skeletal muscle index, were analyzed as predictors of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and PPS. Patients with high muscle volume showed longer survival or PPS than those with low muscle volume (median survival time: 12.8 vs. 9.5 months, p = 0.005; median PPS: 8.2 vs. 6.3 months, p = 0.015); however, no differences in PFS were found. Multivariate analysis indicated that muscle volume was an independent predictor of PPS and OS. Skeletal muscle volume was a PPS predictor in HCC patients receiving sorafenib. Therefore, survival can be prolonged by the upregulation of skeletal muscle volume, especially in HCC patients with skeletal muscle depletion.

[Chinese Experts Consensus on Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (2020 Version)]

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the most common pathological type of lung cancer. The systemic antitumor therapy of advanced NSCLC has undergone renovations of chemotherapy, targeted therapy and immunotherapy, which results in greatly improved survival for patients with advanced NSCLC. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), especially targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), has changed the treatment paradigm of NSCLC. ICIs have become the standard treatment for advanced NSCLC without epidermal growth factor receptor(EGFR) mutation or anaplastic lymphomakinase(ALK) translocation in the first- or second-line setting, and for locally advanced NSCLC following concurrent radiotherapy and chemotherapy. ICIs are also promising in adjuvant/neoadjuvant therapy. More and more ICIs have been approved domestically for the treatment of NSCLC. Led by the NSCLC expert committee of Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology (CSCO), this consensus was developed and updated based on thoroughly reviewing domestic and foreign literatures, clinical trial data, systematic reviews, experts' discussion and the consensus(2019 version). This consensus will aid domestic clinicians in the treatment of NSCLC with ICIs.
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Anticancer mechanism of breviscapine in non-small cell lung cancer A549 cells acts via ROS-mediated upregulation of IGFBP4

Background

The overall 5-year survival rate of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is less than 15% because of multiple drug resistance to chemotherapy and the limitations of early diagnosis. Thus, safe and effective drugs to treat NSCLC are required. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of breviscapine (BVP) on NSCLC cell apoptosis and proliferation, and to study its possible mechanisms.

Methods

Using the NSCLC A549 cell line and BVP (0, 25, 50, and 100 µM), the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay was used to detect A549 cell proliferation, and flow cytometry was used to assess cell apoptosis. Insulin-like growth factor binding protein 4 (IGFBP4) levels was assessed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and western blotting. Flow cytometry of hydrogen peroxide and superoxide was used to assess intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. Western blotting was used to assess the levels of BCL2-associated X, apoptosis regulator (BAX) and B-cell CLL/lymphoma 2 (BCL2). Quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) was used to assess IGFBP4 mRNA expression.

Results

BVP induced apoptosis, inhibited cell proliferation, and increased ROS in A549 cells. Western blotting and qRT-PCR showed that BVP increased IGFBP4 protein and mRNA expressions in A549 cells. Compared with BVP treatment alone, IGFBP4 expression decreased in A549 cells treated with BVP and the ROS scavenger N-acetylcysteine. IGFBP4 overexpression increased BVP-induced proliferation inhibition, while increasing BAX expression and decreasing BCL2 expression. Silencing IGFBP4 had the opposite effects.

Conclusions

BVP could inhibit the growth of NSCLC A549 cells by promoting apoptosis via ROS-mediated upregulation of IGFBP4.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in patients receiving nivolumab monotherapy as a second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer

Background

The effect of second‐line treatment on overall survival (OS) may be affected by subsequent treatment in patients with non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, in such patients, the correlation between post‐progression survival (PPS) and OS is unclear. Our study assessed the correlation of progression‐free survival (PFS) and PPS with OS, using individual patient data, in advanced NSCLC patients who were treated with second‐line nivolumab monotherapy,

Methods

Between January 2016 and March 2019, we evaluated 92 NSCLC patients who received second‐line nivolumab treatment after first‐line platinum‐based combination chemotherapy. Using individual patient data, the correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were examined.

Results

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analysis demonstrated that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.85, p < 0.05, R² = 0.75), while PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.65, p < 0.05, R² = 0.42). Performance status at the beginning of second‐line treatment, immune checkpoint inhibitor rechallenge, and the number of treatment regimens used post‐progression, after the second‐line treatment significantly correlated with PPS (p < 0.05). In advanced NSCLC patients who underwent second‐line treatment with nivolumab, in comparison to PFS, there was a stronger correlation between PPS and OS.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that subsequent treatment for disease progression after a second‐line nivolumab treatment had a significant impact on OS.

Randomized phase II trial of uracil/tegafur and cisplatin versus pemetrexed and cisplatin with concurrent thoracic radiotherapy for locally advanced unresectable stage III non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer: NJLCG1001

Background

The optimal regimen for concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) of locally advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was not definitive. We conducted randomized phase II study, NJLCG0601, and chemoradiotherapy with uracil/tegafur (UFT) and cisplatin achieved promising efficacy without severe toxicities. Here, we evaluated between this regimen and pemetrexed plus cisplatin in chemoradiotherapy for stage III non-squamous NSCLC.

Methods

Patients with inoperable stage III non-squamous NSCLC were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to UFT 400 mg/m² on days 1–14 and 29–42, and cisplatin 80 mg/m² on days 8 and 36 (UP), or cisplatin 75 mg/m² and pemetrexed 500 mg/m² on days 1, 22, and 43 (PP). Involved-field radiotherapy (IFRT) underwent from day 1 to a total dose of 66 Gy in 33 fractions. Consolidation chemotherapy after CCRT was prohibited for this study. The primary endpoint was defined as 2-year overall survival (OS). This trial was registered in the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000003948).

Results

From November 2010 to June 2017, 86 patients were entered from 11 institutions. Median follow-up was 54 months. Of the 85 eligible patients, the 2-year OS rate was 78.6% (95% CI, 62.8–88.3%) in UP and 85.5% (95% CI, 70.5–93.2%) in PP. Median PFS and OS was 12.3 and 64.2 months in UP, 26.2 months and not reached in PP, respectively. Grade 3/4 febrile neutropenia was more frequent in the UP group (14.0% vs. 2.0%).

Conclusions

Both UP and PP with IFRT achieved the expected 2-year OS. PP engendered more favorable OS and PFS compared to UP in terms.

Impact of subsequent chemotherapy on the survival of elderly patients with extensive stage small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The prognosis of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is still poor because of rapid recurrence, despite good response to initial chemotherapy. Additionally, patients' old ages and comorbidities are often obstacles that make it difficult to apply subsequent treatment after initial treatment. This retrospective study analyzed the correlation of post-progression survival (PPS) with overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors including comorbidities to figure out impact of subsequent chemotherapy on OS in elderly extensive disease SCLC.

METHODS

We analyzed 101 patients of age 65 years or older who were recently diagnosed with extensive disease SCLC (ED-SCLC) in Korea University Medical Center between January 1995 and December 2015. The degree of comorbidity was scored using simplified comorbidity score (SCS). Correlation between PPS, progression-free survival (PFS) and OS was analyzed using a Pearson correlation coefficient. Cox proportional hazards regression was employed to examine the influence of clinical variables on survival.

RESULTS

Median age of patients was 71 years old (range, 65 to 83). Median OS was 8.7 months (range, 0.3 to 42.7). PPS was a reliable factor on OS than PFS (R2 = 0.852, p < 0.001). Prognostic factors associated with improved survival were SCS < 9, administration > 4 cycles of first line chemotherapy and subsequent second line chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

PPS was more correlated with OS than PFS in elderly patients with ED-SCLC. The most important prognostic factors for PPS and OS included SCS and second line chemotherapy. Patients receiving subsequent treatment had increased OS regardless of degree of comorbidity.

Survival and prognostic factors in elderly patients receiving second-line chemotherapy for relapsed small-cell lung cancer: Results from the Japanese Joint Committee of Lung Cancer Registry

OBJECTIVES

Most patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) experience relapse because of the emergence of drug-resistant tumor cells. Therefore, second-line therapy is subsequently required to prolong their survival. However, it is unclear whether second-line chemotherapy can provide a survival benefit to elderly patients with relapsed SCLC. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate survival and identify prognostic factors in an elderly population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on a nationwide registry database of patients with SCLC (the Japanese Joint Committee of Lung Cancer Registry), we retrospectively reviewed medical records of patients aged ≥ 75 years with relapsed SCLC who subsequently received second-line chemotherapy. Survival time since the initiation of second-line chemotherapy was evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 731 patients aged ≥ 75 years with SCLC who were accumulated by the nationwide registry database, this study included 228 patients, comprising 190 men and 38 women with a median age of 78 years. The number of patients with performance status (PS) of 0-1 and 2-4 was 196 and 32, respectively. The overall survival (OS) and 1-year survival rates were 7.5 months and 24 %, respectively. A multivariate analysis identified PS, clinical stage at the time of starting first-line therapy, and the interval from the start of first-line therapy to that of second-line therapy as independent prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

This study with the nationwide registry database showed that among the relapsed elderly SCLC patients who received second-line chemotherapy, a substantial OS may be expected in patients with good PS, at an early clinical stage at the time of starting first-line therapy, and with a longer interval from the start of first-line therapy to that of second-line chemotherapy.

Comparison of Carboplatin Plus Pemetrexed Followed by Maintenance Pemetrexed With Docetaxel Monotherapy in Elderly Patients With Advanced Nonsquamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Few clinical trials have been specifically designed for elderly patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and the anticipated increase in the number of such patients has prompted a search for new treatment options that provide a greater palliative benefit.

Objective

To determine whether treatment with carboplatin plus pemetrexed followed by pemetrexed maintenance is noninferior compared with docetaxel monotherapy with regard to overall survival (OS) for elderly patients with advanced nonsquamous NSCLC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This open-label, multicenter, noninferiority phase 3 randomized clinical trial was conducted at 79 institutions in Japan. Cytotoxic chemotherapy-naive patients with advanced nonsquamous NSCLC, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, and age of 75 years or older were enrolled between August 2013 and February 2017. Data were analyzed from November 2018 to February 2019.

Interventions

Patients were randomized to receive either docetaxel monotherapy (60 mg/m2) every 3 weeks or 4 cycles of carboplatin (area under the curve of 5) plus pemetrexed (500 mg/m2) administered every 3 weeks followed by maintenance therapy with the same dose of pemetrexed for 3 weeks.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was OS analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis with a noninferiority margin of 1.154 for the upper limit of the 95% CI of the hazard ratio (HR) estimated with a stratified Cox regression model.

Results

Of the 433 enrolled patients, 250 (57.7%) were male, and the median (range) age was 78 (75-88) years. The median OS was 15.5 months (95% CI, 13.6-18.4) in the docetaxel group (n = 217) and 18.7 months (95% CI, 16.0-21.9) in the carboplatin-pemetrexed group (n = 216), with a stratified HR for OS of 0.850 (95% CI, 0.684-1.056; P for noninferiority = .003). Progression-free survival was also longer in the carboplatin-pemetrexed group (unstratified HR, 0.739; 95% CI, 0.609-0.896). Compared with those in the docetaxel group, those in the carboplatin-pemetrexed had lower rates of leukopenia (60 of 214 [28.0%] vs 147 of 214 [68.7%]) and neutropenia (99 of 214 [46.3%] vs 184 of 214 [86.0%]) of grade 3 or 4 and of febrile neutropenia (9 of 214 [4.2%] vs 38 of 214 [17.8%]) and higher rates of thrombocytopenia (55 of 214 [25.7%] vs 3 of 214 [1.4%]) and anemia (63 of 214 [29.4%] vs 4 of 214 [1.9%]) of grade 3 or 4. Dose reductions were less frequent with carboplatin-pemetrexed.

Conclusion and Relevance

Carboplatin-pemetrexed treatment followed by pemetrexed maintenance is a valid option for first-line treatment of elderly patients with advanced nonsquamous NSCLC.

Trial Registration

University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: UMIN000011460.

Post-progression survival is highly linked to overall survival in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer harboring sensitive EGFR mutations treated with first-line epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors

Background

In patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)‐mutated advanced non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC), epidermal growth factor receptor‐tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR‐TKI) treatment has shown a good response. Subsequent treatments jeopardize the ability to determine the effect of first‐line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS). Therefore, using patient‐level data, we aimed to study the associations of progression‐free survival (PFS) and post‐progression survival (PPS) with OS after first‐line EGFR‐TKI treatment in patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC.

Methods

Between November 2006 and December 2016, we analyzed 92 patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC treated with first‐line EGFR‐TKI. The correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed for each patient.

Results

Spearman's rank correlation and linear regression analyzes showed that PPS correlated highly with OS (r = 0.85, P < 0.05, R² = 0.75), whereas PFS correlated weakly with OS (r = 0.76, P < 0.05, R² = 0.50). The best responses after first‐line and second‐line treatments were significantly associated with PPS.

Conclusions

PPS has a higher impact on OS than PFS in patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC treated with first‐line EGFR‐TKIs. These outcomes suggest that the OS in this patient group may be affected by treatments following first‐line chemotherapy; however, this remains to be verified in prospective trials.

Chronological Trends in Progression-Free, Overall, and Post-Progression Survival in First-Line Therapy for Advanced NSCLC

BACKGROUND

There is a debate about the merits of progression-free survival (PFS) versus overall survival (OS) as primary endpoints in NSCLC. It has been postulated that post-progression therapy may influence OS in both arms. To investigate this issue, we analyzed chronological trends in PFS and OS in advanced NSCLC using restricted mean survival times (RMSTs).

METHODS

We digitized survival curves from first-line phase III trials published between 1998 and 2015 in 13 leading journals to compute RMSTs for PFS and OS at three truncation landmarks (5, 12, and 18 months).

RESULTS

Among the 161 trials identified, RMSTs could be computed for both endpoints in 102, 97, and 82 trials for the 5-, 12-, and 18-month truncation landmarks, respectively. Post-progression survival in the control arm, quantified as mean OS minus mean PFS truncated at 18 months, was on average 3.3 months between 1998 and 2003, 4.4 months between 2004 and 2009, and 5.4 months between 2010 and 2015. This increase was due to increasing RMST for OS over time, with no increase in RMST for PFS. The average within-trial difference in RMSTs between experimental and control arm was close to 0 for OS and less than 1 month for PFS.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a progressive increase in post-progression survival in NSCLC trials, likely from salvage therapy. These results question both PFS and OS as sensitive endpoints in first-line trials, but suggest that the outlook for patients is improving regardless of within-trial gains.

Surrogacy of Time to Progression for Overall Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Systemic Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Time to progression (TTP) is widely used as the endpoint in early-phase trials of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the relevance of using TTP as a surrogate marker for overall survival (OS) in pivotal trials remains uncertain. The PubMed database and ASCO Meeting Library were searched for reports of randomized controlled trials that investigated patients with advanced HCC, included data for both OS and TTP, and were launched between 2009 and 2016. The correlation between hazard ratios (HRs) for TTP and OS was determined using weighted linear regression. Correlations between median OS and TTP, and between median OS and postprogression survival (PPS), defined as the period obtained by subtracting the median TTP from the median OS, were also evaluated. The database search yielded 24 trials with 50 arms. Overall, TTP HR correlated with OS HR (R = 0.73); however, the coefficient in the regression equation was 0.48. The correlation between median OS and median TTP was not so strong (R = 0.50), whereas the correlation between median OS and median PPS was strong (R = 0.78). In advanced HCC, the OS HR can be predicted from the TTP HR, which is useful when considering whether to proceed to a pivotal trial based on the results of early-phase trials. TTP may be a better endpoint than OS for evaluating a novel agent in a pivotal trial, because an improvement in antitumor effect cannot fully reflect an improvement in OS due to the strong impact of PPS on OS.

Cost-effectiveness of ALK testing and first-line crizotinib therapy for non-small-cell lung cancer in China

INTRODUCTION

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement gene testing is used increasingly to identify patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are most likely to benefit from crizotinib. This study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the ALK tests followed by crizotinib compared to the standard chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC from the Chinese healthcare system perspective.

METHODS

A 10-year Markov model was constructed to compare the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of crizotinib with standard chemotherapy, guided by the ALK rearrangement tests: next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel tests and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. The health states included progression-free survival (PFS), progressed survival, and death. The costs examined included cost of drugs (pemetrexed, standard chemotherapy, salvage chemotherapy, and crizotinib), follow-up, palliative care, supportive care, severe adverse events, and ALK rearrangement testing.

RESULTS

Under Patient Assistance Program (PAP), the model demonstrated that the patients using NGS panel tests spent US $31,388 and gained 0.780 QALYs, whereas patients using multiplex PCR spent US $31,362 and gained 0.780 QALYs, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of crizotinib with PAP compared to the control strategy were projected at $14,384 (NGS) and $13,740 (multiplex PCR) per QALY gained, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the utility of PFS and the costs of crizotinib and pemetrexed were the most impactful factors on the model outcomes. The results were robust to changes in all parameters.

CONCLUSION

ALK-rearrangement test positive followed by crizotinib may be cost-effective compared to standard chemotherapy from the Chinese healthcare system perspective when PAP was available.

Post-progression survival following second-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer previously treated with gemcitabine: a meta-analysis

Background Post-progression survival (PPS) could be a confounding element in interpreting data from clinical trials of second-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (PC) previously treated with gemcitabine (GEM) because a recent meta-analysis of oxaliplatin combination therapy showed statistical heterogeneity for overall survival (OS) but not for progression-free survival (PFS). This study aimed to improve the understanding of the impact of PPS on OS in this setting. Methods Databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the salvage setting. We evaluated relationships between OS and PFS, PPS, and other variables. Results Totally, 17 RCTs with 3253 patients were identified. Median OS was strongly and moderately associated with median PPS and PFS, respectively (r = 0.913; p < 0.001 and 0.780; p < 0.001, respectively). The proportion of patients with good performance status was significantly associated with both PPS and PFS (r = 0.574, p < 0.001 and 0.492, p < 0.001, respectively). The induction rate of subsequent chemotherapy was related to the duration of PPS and OS (r = 0.640, p < 0.001 and 0.647, p < 0.001, respectively). Median PPS and OS were significantly longer in recent trials than those in older trials (3.55 versus 2.78 months, p < 0.001 and 6.29 versus 5.02 months, p < 0.001). Conclusions Median PPS was strongly correlated with median OS. Given the recently increased opportunity for subsequent chemotherapy and supportive care, PPS may serve as an important element to clarify problems in this setting.

The effect of post-progression survival on overall survival among patients with sensitive relapse of small cell lung cancer

Recent studies have suggested that, among patients with advanced lung cancer, subsequent treatment after failure of first-line or second-line chemotherapy has a greater effect on overall survival (OS) than tumor shrinkage or progression-free survival (PFS). However, no studies have examined this issue among patients with sensitive relapse of small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We retrospectively evaluate 77 patients with sensitive relapse of SCLC who received second-line chemotherapy after first-line platinum doublet chemotherapy between January 1999 and November 2013. The analyses included patient characteristics, treatment parameters, tumor shrinkage, PFS, post-progression survival (PPS), and OS. Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.91, p < 0.01, R² = 0.96), PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.58, p < 0.01, R² = 0.28), and tumor shrinkage was weakly correlated with OS (r = 0.34, p < 0.01, R² = 0.12). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model with a stepwise regression procedure revealed that PPS was significantly associated with age at the start of second-line chemotherapy, best response to second-line and third-line chemotherapy, and the number of regimens after progression beyond second-line chemotherapy (p < 0.05). These findings suggest that PPS has a stronger effect than PFS on OS among patients with sensitive relapse of SCLC. Thus, response to second-line chemotherapy and subsequent treatment for disease progression after second-line chemotherapy may be important factors that influence OS.

Characterization of PD-L1 expression in Chinese non-small cell lung cancer patients with PTEN expression as a means for tissue quality screening

The goal of this study is to evaluate PD-L1 prevalence and its association with major clinical characteristics in Chinese non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients to inform the clinical development of anti-PD1/PD-L1 agents in this population. We used phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) expression through IHC as a surrogate tissue quality marker to screen surgical NSCLC samples in tissue microarray (TMA; 172 cases) or whole-section (268 cases) format. The samples were then analyzed with a clinically validated PD-L1 IHC assay. The results were correlated with baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes. PTEN IHC showed that 108 TMA samples and 105 whole-section samples qualified for PD-L1 IHC. With a clinically relevant cutoff, 41.7% of the TMA samples were PD-L1 positive. PD-L1 level was much lower in EGFR-mutant patients and seemed to be a favorable prognostic factor for both overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). These findings were confirmed in the whole-section samples except that their survival data were not mature enough for correlation analysis. In summary, PD-L1 expression was detected in approximately 40% of PTEN-qualified Chinese NSCLC samples, negatively correlated with EGFR mutation and seemed to be a favorable prognostic factor for both OS and RFS. Notably, the different results from PTEN-qualified and PTEN-disqualified samples underscore the importance of tissue quality control prior to biomarker testing.

Cost-effectiveness of gefitinib, icotinib, and pemetrexed-based chemotherapy as first-line treatments for advanced non-small cell lung cancer in China

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) are becoming the standard treatment option for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring an EGFR mutation, but the economic impact of this practice is unclear, especially in a health resource-limited setting. A decision-analytic model was developed to simulate 21-day patient transitions in a 10-year time horizon. The health and economic outcomes of four first-line strategies (pemetrexed plus cisplatin [PC] alone, PC followed by maintenance with pemetrexed, or initial treatment with gefitinib or icotinib) among patients harboring EGFR mutations were estimated and assessed via indirect comparisons. Costs in the Chinese setting were estimated. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses were performed. The icotinib strategy resulted in greater health benefits than the other three strategies in NSCLC patients harboring EGFR mutations. Relative to PC alone, PC followed by pemetrexed maintenance, gefitinib and icotinib resulted in ICERs of $104,657, $28,485 and $19,809 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. The cost of pemetrexed, the EGFR mutation prevalence and the utility of progression-free survival were factors that had a considerable impact on the model outcomes. When the icotinib Patient Assistance Program was available, the economic outcome of icotinib was more favorable. These results indicate that gene-guided therapy with icotinib might be a more cost-effective treatment option than traditional chemotherapy.

Overall survival and post-progression survival are potent endpoint in phase III trials of second/third-line chemotherapy for advanced or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer

Purpose: A growing number of treatment options and active compounds in treatments have led to better outcomes for patients with advanced or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer. We examined the association between progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS) and overall survival (OS) in phase III trials of second- and third-line chemotherapy for advanced or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer. We aim to determine whether PFS or PPS is a surrogate of OS so that we can decide progress of disease is optimal endpoint for ovarian cancer.

Methods: We identified 22 trials conducted between January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2014 by literature search. We divided OS into PFS and PPS, and assessed the association between OS and PFS/PPS. We also examined whether the year of trial enrollment completion was associated with any variables.

Results: The median PPS was slightly longer in recent trials compared to older trials (10.0 vs. 8.8 months). While PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.88) in all trials, PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.72). The correlation between OS and PPS in recent trials (r = 0.93) was stronger than in older trials (r = 0.84).

Conclusions: Our findings indicate that PPS is highly associated with OS in second/third-line chemotherapy for advanced or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer, while the association between PFS and OS is moderate. We recommend using OS as primary endpoint for clinical trial of ovarian cancer, however PFS is still an optional endpoint.

Sample size determination for the current strategy in oncology Phase 3 trials that tests progression-free survival and overall survival in a two-stage design framework

The selection of progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) as the most suitable primary endpoint (PE) in oncology Phase 3 trials is currently under intense debate. Because of substantial limitations in the single use of PFS (or OS) as the PE, trial designs that include PFS and OS as co-primary endpoints are attracting increasing interest. In this article, we report on the formulation of determining the sample size for a trial that sequentially tests PFS and OS by treating them as co-PEs. Using a three-component model of OS, the proposed method overcomes the drawbacks of an existing method that requires unreasonable assumption of the exponential distribution for OS, although the hazard function is nonconstant because effective subsequent therapy has prolonged postprogression survival in recent oncology trials. Alternative estimation method of hazard ratio for OS under a three-component mode is also discussed by checking the appropriateness of assuming proportionality of hazards for OS. In order to examine the performance of our proposed method, we performed three numerical studies using both simulated and actual data of cancer Phase 3 trials. We find that the proposed method preserves a prespecified target value of power with a feasible increment of trial scale.

Treatment of Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Failure of Sorafenib Treatment: Subsequent or Additional Treatment Interventions Contribute to Prolonged Survival Postprogression

Background

Sorafenib is a first-line treatment option for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients; however, survival predictors upon progression have not been well characterized. In the present study, we aimed to show the efficacy of multidisciplinary therapy for patients who had failed to respond to sorafenib treatment.

Methods

Among 146 BCLC stage B or C HCC patients treated with sorafenib monotherapy between July 2009 and August 2014, the first radiological progression according to the modified RECIST was identified in 71 patients; factors predicting overall survival (OS) and survival postprogression (SPP) were analyzed in these patients.

Results

The median OS and SPP for patients who failed to respond to sorafenib treatment were 10.5 and 6.2 months, respectively, and the SPP was strongly correlated with the OS (r = 0.982, P < 0.01, and R² = 0.965). The independent predictors of OS and SPP were identical. The predictors of SPP were des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, progression of portal vein thrombosis, and subsequent second-line or additional treatment.

Conclusions

SPP is closely associated with OS and might be notable in patients who have failed to respond to initial sorafenib treatment. Furthermore, interventions consisting of other treatment options upon the appearance of progression might prolong OS.

Clinical significance of post-progression survival in lung cancer

Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are two common endpoints in cancer trials. OS is usually preferred, because it is reliable, precise, meaningful, and can easily be documented. However, subsequent lines of therapy might confound the effects of first-line treatment on OS. Whether PFS or OS is the more appropriate endpoint in clinical trials of metastatic cancer remains controversial. Previous reports on lung cancer have shown that an increase in PFS does not necessarily result in an increase in OS; however, post-progression survival (PPS) is strongly associated with OS after early-line treatment. The significance of PPS after first and second-line therapy at the individual level in patients with advanced lung cancer has also recently been reported. Findings of previous reports indicate that PPS is highly associated with OS after first and second-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and small cell lung cancer, whereas PFS is only moderately associated with OS. Therefore, subsequent treatment after disease progression following early-line treatments may greatly influence OS. This review demonstrates that even in advanced lung cancer, PPS, rather than PFS, has become more strongly associated with OS over the years, potentially because of intensive post-study treatments. As a result of the increasing impact of PPS on OS, a PFS-related advantage does not necessarily indicate an OS-related advantage. Thus, the prolongation of PPS might limit the classical role of OS for assessing true efficacy derived from early-line chemotherapy in future clinical trials.

Post-Progression Survival Associated with Overall Survival in Patients with Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Docetaxel Monotherapy as Second-Line Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

In patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the effects of second-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies. Therefore, using individual-level data, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with docetaxel monotherapy as second-line chemotherapy.

METHODS

Between April 2002 and December 2014, data from 86 patients with advanced NSCLC who underwent second-line docetaxel monotherapy following first-line treatment with platinum combination chemotherapy were analyzed. The relationships of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at the individual level.

RESULTS

Spearman rank correlation and linear regression analyses showed that PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.86, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.93), whereas PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.50, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.21). Performance status at the end of second-line treatment and the number of regimens after progression beyond second-line chemotherapy were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with advanced NSCLC with unknown oncogenic driver mutations undergoing docetaxel monotherapy as second-line chemotherapy, when compared with PFS, PPS had a stronger association with OS. This finding suggests that subsequent treatment after disease progression following second-line docetaxel monotherapy has a significant influence on OS.

Breviscapine suppresses the growth of non-small cell lung cancer by enhancing microRNA-7 expression

Breviscapine (BVP) has previously been shown to inhibit the proliferation of hepatocellular carcinoma cells. However, little is known about the effects of BVP on non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) growth. Here, we aimed to study the effects of BVP on human NSCLC growth. We employed A549, NCL-H460 and A549 cells transfected with microRNA-7 (miR-7) mimic and inhibitor to investigate the effect of BVP on cell proliferation, apoptosis and apoptosis-associated molecules. The results showed that BVP significantly reduced the growth of A549 and NCLH460 cells in a concentration-dependent and time-dependent manner, accompanied by a significant elevation of apoptosis. Additionally, the present study also confirmed that BVP-treated A549 cells showed increased levels of Bax and microRNA-7 (miR-7) and a decreased level of Bcl-2. The up-regulation of miR-7 enhanced the BVP sensitivity of NSCLC cells by suppressing cell proliferation and promoting cell apoptosis, while the inhibition of miR-7 reversed the anti-proliferative pro-apoptotic effects of BVP. Pre-treatment with miR-7 mimics enhanced the BVP-mediated down-regulation of Bax/Bcl-2 in NSCLC cells, while pre-treatment with the miR-7 inhibitor blocked the BVPmediated down-regulation of Bax/Bcl. Taken together, these results confirm that BVP effectively inhibits NSCLC proliferation and that miR-7, as a novel target, is likely involved in BVP-induced growth suppression and the apoptosis of NSCLC cells.

Positive relationship between subsequent chemotherapy and overall survival in pancreatic cancer: meta-analysis of postprogression survival for first-line chemotherapy

PURPOSE

To gain a better understanding of the impact of postprogression survival (PPS) and post-trial anticancer therapy on overall survival (OS) in first-line pancreatic cancer patients.

METHODS

A literature search identified 54 randomized trials, focusing on gemcitabine monotherapy to eliminate effects of heterogeneity of first-line regimens. We evaluated the relation between OS and either progression-free survival (PFS) or PPS. We also examined whether any association might be affected by the year of completion of trial enrollment.

RESULTS

For all 54 trials, PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.844), whereas PFS was moderately associated with OS (r = 0.623). Average OS and PPS were significantly longer in recent trials than in older trials, (7.29 versus 6.15 months, p < 0.001) and (3.64 versus 2.86 months, p < 0.001), respectively. The correlation between OS and PPS in recent trials was much stronger than that in older trials (r = 0.846 versus 0.729). The relation between OS and PFS in recent and older trials did not differ (r = 0.595 versus 0.563). The percentage of patients with post-trial treatment was significantly higher in recent trials than in older trials (52.7 versus 39.7%, p < 0.001). The rate of post-trial anticancer therapy was significantly associated with OS (r = 0.910).

CONCLUSIONS

We found an increase in median PPS in accordance with an increase in median OS in recent trials compared with older trials and that rate of post-trial anticancer therapy was strongly associated with median OS. It is important that researchers be aware of these findings in designing clinical trials of first-line chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer patients.

Pharmacogenetic analysis of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with first-line paclitaxel and carboplatin chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Genetic polymorphisms contribute toward interindividual variations in drug response. We investigated the effects of genetic polymorphisms on the clinical outcome of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patients with first-line paclitaxel and carboplatin.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 194 non-small-cell lung cancer patients were prospectively enrolled from January 2010 to January 2013. We genotyped 11 polymorphisms in seven genes involved in the glycolysis pathway and the related pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic pathway. Genetic associations with PET-SUV, survival outcome, and toxicity were analyzed, and in-vitro drug transport activity was measured in the oocyte system.

RESULTS

Patients with the c.334 T>G and c.699 G>A homozygous variant in SLCO1B3 showed a higher incidence of grade 3/4 anemia (P=0.002). Transport activities of oocyte that overexpress the SLCO1B3 c.699 G>A variant showed a significantly decreased uptake of paclitaxel compared with the wild-type expressing oocytes. In addition, patients with GG/GA/AA genotypes of ABCB1, c.2677 T>G/A locus showed inferior progression-free survival (hazard ratio=1.49, P=0.017) compared with other genotypes. The GA genotype of HIF1A, c.1834 G>A locus was associated with inferior progression-free survival compared with the GG genotype (hazard ratio=2.47, P=0.008).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the SLCO1B3 c.699 G>A polymorphism may predict anemia and ABCB1, HIF1A polymorphism are highly predictive for worse survival in advanced NSCLC with first-line paclitaxel and carboplatin.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in elderly patients with extensive disease small-cell lung cancer

Background

The effects of first‐line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with small‐cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, the objective of our study was to determine the relationships between progression‐free survival (PFS) or post‐progression survival (PPS) and OS after first‐line chemotherapy in elderly patients with extensive disease‐SCLC (ED‐SCLC), using individual level data.

Methods

Between July 1998 and December 2014, we analyzed 57 cases of elderly patients with ED‐SCLC who were treated with carboplatin and etoposide as first‐line chemotherapy. The relationships between PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at an individual level.

Results

Spearman rank correlation and linear regression analyses showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.92, P < 0.05, R² = 0.83) and PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.76, P < 0.05, R² = 0.25). The best response at second‐line treatment and the number of regimens after progression beyond first‐line chemotherapy were both significantly associated with PPS (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

PPS has a stronger impact on OS than PFS in elderly ED‐SCLC patients after first‐line chemotherapy. In addition, the response at second‐line treatment and the number of additional regimens after first‐line treatment are significant independent prognostic factors for PPS. These results suggest that OS in elderly ED‐SCLC patients may be influenced by treatments subsequent to first‐line chemotherapy; however, this remains to be verified with prospective studies.

Clinical Significance of the Relationship between Progression-Free Survival or Postprogression Survival and Overall Survival in Patients with Extensive Disease-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Treated with Carboplatin plus Etoposide

Background. The effects of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, by using individual-level data, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS) or postprogression survival (PPS) and OS after first-line chemotherapies in patients with extensive disease-SCLC (ED-SCLC) treated with carboplatin plus etoposide. Methods. Between July 1998 and December 2014, we analyzed 63 cases of patients with ED-SCLC who were treated with carboplatin and etoposide as first-line chemotherapy. The relationships of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at the individual level. Results. Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.90, p < 0.05, and R² = 0.71) and PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.72, p < 0.05, and R² = 0.62). Type of relapse (refractory/sensitive) and the number of regimens administered after disease progression after the first-line chemotherapy were both significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.05). Conclusions. PPS has a stronger relationship with OS than does PFS in ED-SCLC patients who have received first-line chemotherapy. These results suggest that treatments administered after first-line chemotherapy affect the OS of ED-SCLC patients treated with carboplatin plus etoposide.

Post-progression survival and progression-free survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated by sorafenib

AIM

Although sorafenib is a standard drug for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), little is known about a patient's clinical course after treatment. We investigated the effect of post-progression survival (PPS) and progression-free survival (PFS) on overall survival (OS) in patients whose advanced HCC was treated by sorafenib.

METHODS

We searched in the PubMed database for reports with survival data of patients with HCC treated with sorafenib monotherapy, and selected reports with 20 or more patients each that provided data for both OS and PFS or time to progression (TTP). Median PPS (mPPS) was defined as the period obtained by subtracting median PFS or TTP (mPFS/TTP) from median OS (mOS). We identified 56 reports with 5803 patients. We investigated the correlation of mOS and either mPPS or mPFS/TTP using weighted linear regression.

RESULTS

Median PPS correlated with mOS (r = 0.834) very strongly, whereas mPFS/TTP did not correlate with mOS as highly as PPS did (r = 0.546). When we stratified survival data by Child-Pugh classification, a significantly greater average percentage of mPPS to mOS was seen in Child-Pugh class A (54.4 ± 17.6%) than in Child-Pugh class B (32.0 ± 11.6%) (P = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

PPS highly correlated with OS, and its importance should be more emphasized for advanced HCC patients treated after sorafenib therapy, whereas we need to take more care in interpreting the results of PFS to evaluate treatment efficacy in clinical trials of advanced HCC.

Economic analysis of ALK testing and crizotinib therapy for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

Aim: The economic outcome of crizotinib in advanced non–small-cell lung cancer harboring anaplastic lymphoma kinase rearrangement would be investigated. Materials & methods: Based on a mathematical model, the economic outcome of three techniques for testing ALK gene rearrangement combing with crizotinib would be evaluated and compared with traditional regimen. The impact of the crizotinib patient assistance program (PAP) was assessed. Results: Ventana immunohistochemistry, quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and IHC testing plus fluorescent in situ hybridization confirmation for anaplastic lymphoma kinase testing following crizotinib treatment leaded to the incremental cost–effectiveness ratios of US$16,820 and US$223,242, US$24,424 and US$223,271, and US$16,850 and US$254,668 per quality-adjusted life-year gained with and without PAP, respectively. Conclusion: Gene-guided crizotinib therapy might be a cost-effective alternative comparing with the traditional regimen in the PAP setting.

Strength of Validation for Surrogate End Points Used in the US Food and Drug Administration's Approval of Oncology Drugs

OBJECTIVE

To determine the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation for cancer drug approvals based on a surrogate.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) database, with focused searches of MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Among cancer drugs approved based on a surrogate end point, we examined previous publications assessing the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation. Specifically, we identified the percentage of surrogate approvals lacking any formal analysis of the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation, and when conducted, the strength of such correlations.

RESULTS

Between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2014, the FDA approved marketing applications for 55 indications based on a surrogate, of which 25 were accelerated approvals and 30 were traditional approvals. We could not find any formal analyses of the strength of the surrogate-survival correlation in 14 out of 25 accelerated approvals (56%) and 11 out of 30 traditional approvals (37%). For accelerated approvals, just 4 approvals (16%) were made where a level 1 analysis (the most robust way to validate a surrogate) had been performed, with all 4 studies reporting low correlation (r≤0.7). For traditional approvals, a level 1 analysis had been performed for 15 approvals (50%): 8 (53%) reported low correlation (r≤0.7), 4 (27%) medium correlation (r>0.7 to r<0.85), and 3 (20%) high correlation (r≥0.85) with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of surrogate end points for drug approval often lacks formal empirical verification of the strength of the surrogate-survival association.

Verification of the correlation between progression-free survival and overall survival considering magnitudes of survival post- progression in the treatment of four types of cancer

BACKGROUND

With development and application of new and effective anti-cancer drugs, the median survival post-progression (SPP) is often prolonged, and the role of the median SPP on surrogacy performance should be considered. To evaluate the impact of the median SPP on the correlation between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), we performed simulations for treatment of four types of cancer, advanced gastric cancer (AGC), metastatic colorectal cancer (MCC), glioblastoma (GBM), and advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (ANSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The effects of the median SPP on the statistical properties of OS and the correlation between PFS and OS were assessed. Further, comparisons were made between the surrogacy performance based on real data from meta-analyses and simulation results with similar scenarios.

RESULTS

The probability of a significant gain in OS and HR for OS was decreased by an increase of the SPP/ OS ratio or by a decrease of observed treatment benefit for PFS. Similarly, for each of the four types of cancer, the correlation between PFS and OS was reduced as the median SPP increased from 2 to 12 months. Except for ANSCLC, for which the median SPP was equal to the true value, the simulated correlation between PFS and OS was consistent with the values derived from meta-analyses for the other three kinds of cancer. Further, for these three types of cancer, when the median SPP was controlled at a designated level (i.e., < 4 months for AGC, < 12 months for MCC, and <6 months for GBM), the correlation between PFS and OS was strong; and the power of OS reached 34.9% at the minimum.

CONCLUSIONS

PFS is an acceptable surrogate endpoint for OS under the condition of controlling SPPs for AGC, MCC, and GBM at their limit levels; a similar conclusion cannot be made for ANSCLC.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in patients with limited-stage disease small cell lung cancer after first-line chemoradiotherapy

Background

The effects of first-line chemoradiotherapy on overall survival (OS) may be confounded by subsequent lines of therapy in patients with limited-stage disease small cell lung cancer (LD-SCLC). Therefore, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS) and OS after first-line chemoradiotherapy in LD-SCLC patients.

Patients and methods.

We retrospectively analyzed 71 LD-SCLC patients with performance status (PS) 0–2 who received first-line chemoradiotherapy and had disease recurrence between September 2002 and March 2013 at Shizuoka Cancer Center (Shizuoka, Japan). We determined the correlation between PFS and OS and between PPS and OS at the individual level. In addition, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify significant prognostic factors of PPS.

Results

OS is more strongly correlated with PPS (Spearman’s r = 0.86, R² = 0.72, p < 0.05) than PFS (Spearman’s r = 0.46, R² = 0.38, p < 0.05). In addition, the response to second-line treatments, the presence of distant metastases at recurrence and the number of additional regimens after first-line chemoradiotherapy were significant independent prognostic factors for PPS.

Conclusions

PPS has more impact on OS than PFS in recurrent LD-SCLC patients with good PS at beginning of the treatment. Moreover, treatments administered after first-line chemoradiotherapy may affect their OS. However, larger multicenter studies are needed to validate these findings.

Statistical controversies in clinical research: end points other than overall survival are vital for regulatory approval of anticancer agents

There is an ongoing debate about the relative merits of overall survival (OS) and other metrics that can be used as primary end points in cancer clinical trials. Although survival time is arguably the most objective metric for assessing the efficacy of anticancer treatment, OS as a clinical-trial end point needs to be conceptually distinguished from increased survival time as a goal desired by patients, clinicians and public-health policy makers. OS presents several drawbacks as a primary end point that threatens to hamper further drug development, including the increase in the number of patients and the much longer follow-up required in a clinical trial. In many settings of first-line therapy for metastatic disease, median OS is currently two to four times longer than median progression-free survival. As a result, the analysis of OS may be increasingly confounded by the effect of salvage therapies used after disease progression. In this review, we use straightforward statistical reasoning and examples from the oncology literature to argue that OS should no longer be the primary end point of most future phase III cancer clinical trials that aim at assessing the efficacy of novel therapies in the setting of metastatic disease.

Why post-progression survival and post-relapse survival are not appropriate measures of efficacy in cancer randomized clinical trials

Comparisons of post-relapse survival (PRS) and post-progression survival have been used to measure efficacy in some cancer clinical trials. These comparisons are an attempt to account for second-line therapies and to identify benefits that do not translate in longer overall survival. However, the use of PRS comparisons can be misleading (either a longer or shorter PRS may indicate a benefit, depending on the circumstances) and can result in biased estimates (because of selection). Here, we describe the problems surrounding PRS comparisons and propose alternative approaches to deal with non-randomized therapies administered after progression to the experimental treatment.

Progression-free survival, post-progression survival, and tumor response as surrogate markers for overall survival in patients with extensive small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

The effects of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We examined whether progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and tumor response could be valid surrogate endpoints for OS after first-line chemotherapies for patients with extensive SCLC using individual-level data.

METHODS

Between September 2002 and November 2012, we analyzed 49 cases of patients with extensive SCLC who were treated with cisplatin and irinotecan as first-line chemotherapy. The relationships of PFS, PPS, and tumor response with OS were analyzed at the individual level.

RESULTS

Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.97, p < 0.05, R(2)= 0.94), PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.58, p < 0.05, R(2)= 0.24), and tumor shrinkage was weakly correlated with OS (r = 0.37, p < 0.05, R(2)= 0.13). The best response to second-line treatment, and the number of regimens employed after progression beyond first-line chemotherapy were both significantly associated with PPS ( p ≤ 0.05).

CONCLUSION

PPS is a potential surrogate for OS in patients with extensive SCLC. Our findings also suggest that subsequent treatment after disease progression following first-line chemotherapy may greatly influence OS.