Identifying the potential long-term survivors among breast cancer patients with distant metastasis

Survival After Contralateral Axillary Metastasis in Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Despite stage IV categorization, survival outcomes for breast cancer patients who experience contralateral axillary lymph node metastasis (CAM) remain uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes for patients with metachronous CAM to provide insights into its prognosis and treatment recommendations.

METHODS

This study retrospectively reviewed medical records of patients who underwent curative surgery for breast cancer and experienced CAM as the first site of distant metastasis (DM) during the follow-up period between January 2001 and April 2023. Survival outcomes of the CAM patients were compared with those of breast cancer patients with other DM via propensity score-matching (PSM).

RESULTS

The study identified 40 breast cancer patients with metachronous CAM. The estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 39.6%, and the progression-free survival was 39.4%. The patients with CAM exhibited marginally better OS than the patients with DM (p = 0.071), but survival similar to that of the patients with isolated supraclavicular node recurrence (SCN) (p = 0.509). Moreover, matching of CAM with DM using two PSM models showed a consistently insignificant survival difference (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; p = 0.124 vs. HR, 1.19; p = 0.542). Ipsilateral breast tumor recurrences (IBTRs) were experienced by 12 patients before or concurrently with the CAM. These patients exhibited significantly better survival than the remaining patients (HR, 0.28; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

The breast cancer patients with CAM showed survival similar to that for the patients with DM, supporting the current stage IV classification of the CAM. However, CAM associated with IBTR exhibited superior survival outcomes, suggesting that this subset of CAM may benefit from treatments with curative intent.

Surveillance for Distant Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients Who Underwent Contemporary Management: A Report from the Korean Breast Cancer Society Survivor Research Group

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend against the use of routine imaging tests to detect distant metastasis in asymptomatic breast cancer patients. However, recent advancements in effective therapeutics and diagnostic accuracy have raised the need to reassess the clinical efficacy of intensive metastasis surveillance. We report the results of a multicenter retrospective study to investigate the association between intensive imaging studies and survival outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the data of 4130 patients who underwent surgery from 11 hospitals in Korea between January 2010 and December 2011. Patients were divided into two groups on the basis of the intensity of metastasis imaging studies during their disease-free period. The types and intervals of the imaging studies were based on each physician's decisions.

RESULTS

High-intensive screening showed a shorter distant metastasis-free survival [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.04], especially for patients in whom bone or lung was the first site of metastasis. With a median follow-up period of 110.0 months, the 5-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rate was 96.5%. The high-intensity screening group showed significantly poorer BCSS compared with the low-intensity screening group (p < 0.001, HR 3.13; 95% CI 2.32-4.21). However, both multivariable analysis and propensity score matching analysis showed no significant association between the screening intensity and BCSS.

CONCLUSIONS

Frequent imaging studies to detect distant metastasis were associated with earlier detection of distant metastasis, especially for lung and bone metastasis. However, intensive surveillance showed no apparent association with BCSS despite the use of currently available treatments.

Survival nomogram for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer based on the SEER database and an external validation cohort

Background

On average, 5-10% of patients are diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) in these patients.

Methods

The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 9435 patients with de novo MBC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using the concordance index (C-index), area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to evaluate the benefits and advantages of our new predicting model over the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. The results were validated in a retrospective study of 103 patients with de novo MBC from January 2013 to June 2022 at an institution in northwest China.

Results

Multivariate analysis of the primary cohort revealed that independent factors for survival were age at diagnosis, pathological type, histological grade, T stage, N stage, molecular subtype, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.688 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.682-0.694) in the training cohort and 0.875 (95% CI, 0.816-0.934) in the validation cohort. The AUC of the nomograms indicated good specificity and sensitivity in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves showed favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities. Additionally, the DCA curve produced higher net gains than by the AJCC-TNM staging system. Finally, risk stratification can accurately identify groups of patients with de novo MBC at different risk levels.

Conclusions

The nomogram showed favorable predictive and discriminative abilities for OS in patients with de novo MBC. Other populations from different countries or prospective studies are needed to further validate the nomogram.

Future trends in incidence and long-term survival of metastatic cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated epidemiological trends in individual metastatic cancer subtypes; however, research forecasting long-term incidence trends and projected survivorship of metastatic cancers is lacking. We assess the burden of metastatic cancer to 2040 by (1) characterizing past, current, and forecasted incidence trends, and (2) estimating odds of long-term (5-year) survivorship.

METHODS

This retrospective, serial cross-sectional, population-based study used registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 9) database. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to describe cancer incidence trends from 1988 to 2018. Autoregressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the distribution of primary metastatic cancer and metastatic cancer to specific sites from 2019 to 2040 and JoinPoint models were fitted to estimate mean projected annual percentage change (APC).

RESULTS

The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence of metastatic cancer decreased by 0.80 per 100,000 individuals (1988-2018) and we forecast an APC decrease by 0.70 per 100,000 individuals (2018-2040). Analyses predict a decrease in metastases to liver (APC = -3.40, 95% CI [-3.50, -3.30]), lung (APC (2019-2030) = -1.90, 95% CI [-2.90, -1.00]); (2030-2040) = -3.70, 95% CI [-4.60, -2.80]), bone (APC = -4.00, 95% CI [-4.30, -3.70]), and brain (APC = -2.30, 95% CI [-2.60, -2.00]). By 2040, patients with metastatic cancer are predicted to have 46.7% greater odds of long-term survivorship, driven by increasing plurality of patients with more indolent forms of metastatic disease.

CONCLUSIONS

By 2040, the distribution of metastatic cancer patients is predicted to shift in predominance from invariably fatal to indolent cancers subtypes. Continued research on metastatic cancers is important to guide health policy and clinical intervention efforts, and direct allocations of healthcare resources.

Prognostic Impact of Elevation of Cancer Antigen 15-3 (CA15-3) in Patients With Early Breast Cancer With Normal Serum CA15-3 Level

PURPOSE

Cancer antigen 15-3 (CA15-3) is a serum tumor marker for breast cancer (BC) extensively used in clinical practice. CA15-3 is non-invasive, easily available, and a cost-effective tumor marker for immediate diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of BC recurrence. We hypothesized that an elevation of CA15-3 may have prognostic impact in patients with early BC with normal serum CA15-3 level.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study, which included patients with BC who received curative surgery at a comprehensive single institution between 2000 and 2016. CA15-3 levels from 0 to 30 U/mL were considered normal, and patients who had CA15-3 > 30 U/mL, were excluded from the study.

RESULTS

The mean age of study participants (n = 11,452) was 49.3 years. The proportion of participants with elevated CA15-3 ≥ 1 standard deviation (SD) compared with the previous examination during follow-up was 23.3% (n = 2,666). During the follow-up (median follow-up 5.8 years), 790 patients experienced recurrence. The fully-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for recurrence comparing participants with stable CA15-3 level to subjects with elevated CA15-3 level was 1.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-2.03). In addition, if the CA15-3 was elevated ≥ 1 SD, the risk was much higher (HR, 6.87; 95% CI, 5.81-8.11) than in patients without elevated CA15-3 ≥ 1 SD. In sensitivity analysis, the recurrence risk was consistently higher in participants with elevated CA15-3 levels than in participants without elevated CA15-3 levels. The association between elevated CA15-3 levels and incidence of recurrence was observed in all subtypes and the association was stronger in patients with N+ than in patients with N0 stage (p-value for interaction < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The results of the present study demonstrated that elevation of CA15-3 in patients with early BC and initial normal serum CA15-3 levels has a prognostic impact.

A natural history and copula-based joint model for regional and distant breast cancer metastasis

The few existing statistical models of breast cancer recurrence and progression to distant metastasis are predominantly based on multi-state modelling. While useful for summarising the risk of recurrence, these provide limited insight into the underlying biological mechanisms and have limited use for understanding the implications of population-level interventions. We develop an alternative, novel, and parsimonious approach for modelling latent tumour growth and spread to local and distant metastasis, based on a natural history model with biologically inspired components. We include marginal sub-models for local and distant breast cancer metastasis, jointly modelled using a copula function. Different formulations (and correlation shapes) are allowed, thus we can incorporate and directly model the correlation between local and distant metastasis flexibly and efficiently. Submodels for the latent cancer growth, the detection process, and screening sensitivity, together with random effects to account for between-patients heterogeneity, are included. Although relying on several parametric assumptions, the joint copula model can be useful for understanding - potentially latent - disease dynamics, obtaining patient-specific, model-based predictions, and studying interventions at a population level, for example, using microsimulation. We illustrate this approach using data from a Swedish population-based case-control study of postmenopausal breast cancer, including examples of useful model-based predictions.

Identification and validation of an immune-related gene pairs signature for three urologic cancers

Reliable biomarkers are needed to recognize urologic cancer patients at high risk for recurrence. In this study, we built a novel immune-related gene pairs signature to simultaneously predict recurrence for three urologic cancers. We gathered 14 publicly available gene expression profiles including bladder, prostate and kidney cancer. A total of 2,700 samples were classified into the training set (n = 1,622) and validation set (n = 1,078). The 25 immune-related gene pairs signature consisting of 41 unique genes was developed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and Cox regression model. The signature stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different relapse-free survival in the meta-training set and its subpopulations, and was an independent prognostic factor of urologic cancers. This signature showed a robust ability in the meta-validation and multiple independent validation cohorts. Immune and inflammatory response, chemotaxis and cytokine activity were enriched with genes relevant to the signature. A significantly higher infiltration level of M1 macrophages was found in the high-risk group versus the low-risk group. In conclusion, our signature is a promising prognostic biomarker for predicting relapse-free survival in patients with urologic cancer.

Phase II trail of nab-paclitaxel in metastatic breast cancer patients with visceral metastases

Background

Visceral metastases account for 48–67% of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients and presage a worse overall survival. Previous study suggested potential effect of nab-paclitaxel on patients with visceral metastases subgroups. This phase II trial was conducted to explore the efficacy and safety of nab-paclitaxel in such a high-risk group of patients.

Methods

In this prospective, single-center, open-label, phase II study, MBC patients with visceral metastases (N = 80) received nab-paclitaxel (Abraxane, 125 mg/m2, D1, D8, D15 every 28 days).

Results

The median PFS was 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.2–6.0 months), with an ORR of 33.8% (95% CI 21.3–43.8%) and CBR of 66.2% (95% CI 56.3–75.0%). In univariate analysis, patients with premenopausal status had a trend of better treatment outcome. Multivariate analysis demonstrated non brain metastasis (adjusted HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12–0.83, P = 0.019) and first line treatment (adjusted HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.81, P = 0.013) as independent predictors of longer PFS. The overall safety was acceptable with most common treatment-related, grade ≥ 3 toxicities of neutropenia (16.3%) and sensory neuropathy (3.7%).

Conclusions

This phase II trial documented satisfactory efficacy and safety of nab-paclitaxel in MBC patients with visceral metastases, providing evidence for relative clinical practice. Patients in first line therapy had better treatment outcome. For patients with premenopausal status or brain metastasis, further alternatives (for example, combined chemotherapy or targeting therapy) might be required. This study also demonstrated the efficacy and safety of 125 mg/m2 nab-paclitaxel among Asian patients.

Trial registration

This research is registered under clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 02687490, February 22, 2016).

Patient-Derived Xenograft Models in Breast Cancer Research

Patient-derived xenograft (PDX) model can be used as a platform to study the individual patient's sensitivity to targeted agents as well as its ability to guide our understanding in various aspects of tumor biology including the tumor's clonal evolution and interaction with microenvironment. In this chapter, we review the history of PDX models in various tumor types. Additionally, we highlight the key studies that suggested potential value of PDX models in cancer treatment. Specifically, we will briefly introduce several studies on the issue of PDX models for precision medicine. In latter part of this chapter, we focus on the studies that used PDX models to investigate the molecular biology of breast cancer that underlies the process of drug resistance and tumor metastasis. Also, we will address our own experience in developing PDX models using breast cancer tissues from Korean breast cancer patients.

Clinical benefit of treatment after trastuzumab emtansine for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer: a real-world multi-centre cohort study in Japan (WJOG12519B)

BACKGROUND

Trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) treatment for human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-positive metastatic breast cancer after taxane with trastuzumab and pertuzumab is standard therapy. However, treatment strategies beyond T-DM1 are still in development with insufficient evidence of their effectiveness. Here, we aimed to evaluate real-world treatment choice and efficacy of treatments after T-DM1 for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.

METHODS

In this multi-centre retrospective cohort study involving 17 hospitals, 325 female HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients whose post-T-DM1 treatment began between April 15, 2014 and December 31, 2018 were enrolled. The primary end point was the objective response rate (ORR) of post-T-DM1 treatments. Secondary end points included disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), time to treatment failure (TTF), and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The median number of prior treatments of post-T-DM1 treatment was four. The types of post-T-DM1 treatments included (1) chemotherapy in combination with trastuzumab and pertuzumab (n = 102; 31.4%), (2) chemotherapy concomitant with trastuzumab (n = 78; 24.0%), (3), lapatinib with capecitabine (n = 63; 19.4%), and (4) others (n = 82; 25.2%). ORR was 22.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1-28.0], DCR = 66.6% (95% CI 60.8-72.0), median PFS = 6.1 months (95% CI 5.3-6.7), median TTF = 5.1 months (95% CI 4.4-5.6), and median OS = 23.7 months (95% CI 20.7-27.4).

CONCLUSION

The benefits of treatments after T-DM1 are limited. Further investigation of new treatment strategies beyond T-DM1 is awaited for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients.

Development and validation of a risk stratification nomogram for predicting prognosis in bone metastatic breast cancer: A population-based study

ABSTRACT

Bone metastasis seriously affects the survival of breast cancer. Therefore, the study aimed to explore the independent prognostic factors in bone metastatic breast cancer (BMBC) and to construct a prognostic nomogram that can accurately predict the survival of BMBC and strictly divide the patients into different risk stratification.Four thousand three hundred seventy six patients with BMBC from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database in 2010 to 2015 were collected and randomly divided into training and validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression identified the independent prognostic factors of BMBC. A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in BMBC was created using R software. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves.Marital status, race, age, T stage, tumor grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, chemotherapy, and breast surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for CSS of BMBC. The area under the ROC curve at 1-, 3-, and 5-year of the nomogram were 0.775, 0.756, and 0.717 in the internal validation and 0.785, 0.737, and 0.735 in the external validation, respectively. Calibration curves further confirmed the unbiased prediction of the model. Kaplan-Meier analysis verified the excellent risk stratification of our model.The first prognostic nomogram for BMBC constructed in our study can accurately predict the survival of BMBC, which may provide a practical tool to help clinicians evaluate prognosis and stratify the prognostic risk for BMBC, thereby determining which patients should be given intensive treatment and optimizing individual treatment strategies for BMBC.

Intensity of metastasis screening and survival outcomes in patients with breast cancer

Previous randomized trials, performed decades ago, showed no survival benefit of intensive screening for distant metastasis in breast cancer. However, recent improvements in targeted therapies and diagnostic accuracy of imaging have again raised the question of the clinical benefit of screening for distant metastasis. Therefore, we investigated the association between the use of modern imaging and survival of patients with breast cancer who eventually developed distant metastasis. We retrospectively reviewed data of 398 patients who developed distant metastasis after their initial curative treatment between January 2000 and December 2015. Patients in the less-intensive surveillance group (LSG) had significantly longer relapse-free survival than did patients in the intensive surveillance group (ISG) (8.7 vs. 22.8 months; p = 0.002). While the ISG showed worse overall survival than the LSG did (50.2 vs. 59.9 months; p = 0.015), the difference was insignificant after adjusting for other prognostic factors. Among the 225 asymptomatic patients whose metastases were detected on imaging, the intensity of screening did not affect overall survival. A small subgroup of patients showed poor survival outcomes when they underwent intensive screening. Patients with HR-/HER2 + tumors and patients who developed lung metastasis in the LSG had better overall survival than those in the ISG did. Highly intensive screening for distant metastasis in disease-free patients with breast cancer was not associated with significant survival benefits, despite the recent improvements in therapeutic options and diagnostic techniques.

SPOCK1/SIX1axis promotes breast cancer progression by activating AKT/mTOR signaling

SPOCK1 is highly expressed in many types of cancer and has been recognized as a promoter of cancer progression. Its regulatory mechanism in breast cancer (BC) remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the precise function of SPOCK1 in BC progression and to identify the mechanism by which SPOCK1 is involved in cell proliferation and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Immunohistochemistry (IHC) experiments and database analysis showed that high expression of SPOCK1 was positively associated with histological grade, lymph node metastasis (LN) and poor clinical prognosis in BC. A series of in vitro and in vivo assays elucidated that altering the SPOCK1 level led to distinct changes in BC cell proliferation and metastasis. Investigations of potential mechanisms revealed that SPOCK1 interacted with SIX1 to enhance cell proliferation, cell cycle progression and EMT by activating the AKT/mTOR pathway, whereas inhibition of the AKT/mTOR pathway or depletion of SIX1 reversed the effects of SPOCK1 overexpression. Furthermore, SPOCK1 and SIX1 were highly expressed in BC and might indicate poor prognoses. Altogether, the SPOCK1/SIX1 axis promoted BC progression by activating the AKT/mTOR pathway to accelerate cell proliferation and promote metastasis in BC, so the SPOCK1/SIX1 axis might be a promising clinical therapeutic target for preventing BC progression.

Development and validation of a nomogram in survival prediction among advanced breast cancer patients

Background

The overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced breast cancer (ABC) varies greatly. Although molecular subtype is known as the most important factor in OS differentiation, significant differences in OS among patients with the same molecular subtype still occur, leading to the need for a more accurate prognostic prediction model. This study aimed to develop a prediction model (nomogram) based on current diagnosis and treatment to predict the OS of newly diagnosed ABC patients in China.

Methods

From the institution’s database, we collected data of 368 ABC patients from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (national hospital) as a training set to establish a nomogram with prognostic risk factors that calculated the predicted probability of survival. Nomograms were independently validated with 278 patients with ABC from two other institutions using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots and risk group stratifications.

Results

The initial primary tumor stage, molecular subtype, disease-free survival (DFS), presence of brain metastasis, and the tumor burden of metastasis disease (local recurrence, oligo-metastatic disease, or multiple-metastatic disease) were included in the prognostic nomogram. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.77 and 0.71 in the training and the validation sets, respectively. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into different risk groups, respectively (HR 6.81, 95% CI: 4.69 to 9.89, P<0.001). In the lower risk score group (risk score <11), there was no significant difference between the OS with chemotherapy and hormone therapy (HR 0.81, 95% CI: 0.44 to 1.47, P=0.48).

Conclusions

We have constructed a novel prediction nomogram that can guide the physicians to select personalized treatment options. Furthermore, our study is the first to add oligo-metastatic disease and primary endocrine/trastuzumab resistance into the prognostic models.

A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

5-10% of patients are diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of these patients.

METHODS

de novo MBC patients diagnosed in 2010-2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort with a ratio of 2:1. The best subsets of covariates were identified to develop a nomogram predicting OS based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value in the multivariate Cox models. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the Concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

In this study, we included 7986 patients with de novo MBC. The median follow-up time was 36 months (range: 0-83 months). Five thousand three-hundred twenty four patients were allocated into the training cohort while 2662 were allocated into the validation cohort. In the training cohort, age at diagnosis, race, marital status, differentiation grade, subtype, T stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery and chemotherapy were selected to create the nomogram estimating the 1-, 3- and 5- year OS based on the smallest AIC value in the multivariate Cox models. The nomogram achieved a Concordance index of 0.723 (95% CI, 0.713-0.733) in the training cohort and 0.719 (95% CI, 0.705-0.734) in the validation cohort. AUC values of the nomogram indicated good specificity and sensitivity in the training and validation cohort. Calibration curves showed a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram reliably predicted OS in patients with de novo MBC and presented a favorable discrimination ability. While further validation is needed, this may be a useful tool in clinical practice.

Metastatic breast cancer in regrowth of thyroid lobe after subtotal thyroidectomy - case report

Breast cancer is the most common malignant neoplasm among women. Metastases to the thyroid are relatively rare. Those lesions annunciate neoplasm dissemination in most cases. Metastatic breast cancer of thyroid lobe regrowth hasn't been described yet. In the article the authors present a case of a 66-year old women with isolated, metachronous breast cancer metastasis in regrowth of the right thyroid lobe. Resection of the right lobe with metastatic tumor was performed with a purpose of total recovery. Despite surgery, multiple bone metastases were detected a few months after. In conclusion, regrowth of the thyroid is a potential site of recurrence and metastasis. Therefore, the thyroid bed cannot be omitted in routine examination during and after oncological treatment.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival of advanced breast cancer patients in China

Background

There is a lack of prognostic models predicting the overall survival (OS) of advanced breast cancer (ABC) patients in China.

Methods

Data from the China National Cancer Center database that recorded 4039 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 1987 and 2019 were extracted and a total of 2263 ABC participants were enrolled in this study, which were further randomized 3:1 and divided into training (n = 1706) and validation (n = 557) groups. The nomogram was built based on independent predictors identified by univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses. The discriminatory and predictive capacities of the nomogram were assessed by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses found that age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score, T-stage, N-stage, tumor subtype, the presence of distant lymph node (DLN)/liver/brain metastasis, local therapy, efficacy of first-line therapy and metastatic-free interval (MFI) were significantly related to OS (all P < 0.05). These variables were incorporated into a nomogram to predict the 2-year and 3-year OS of ABC patients. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.700 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.683–0.717) for the training set and 0.686 (95% CI: 0.652–0.719) for the validation set. The calibration curves revealed satisfactory consistency between actual survival and nomogram prediction in both the internal and external validations. The nomogram was capable of stratifying patients into different risk cohorts.

Conclusions

We constructed and validated a nomogram that might serve as an efficient tool to provide prognostic prediction for ABC patients and guide the physicians to make personalized treatment decisions.

•

The nomogram might serve as an efficient tool to provide prognostic prediction for advanced breast cancer patients.

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This model could identify low-risk patients who might benefit from aggressive local curative treatment of liver metastasis.

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The nomogram suggested that the low-risk triple-negative breast cancer patients demanded more intensive treatments.

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External validation from other centers was needed.

Treatment effect of palbociclib plus endocrine therapy by prognostic and intrinsic subtype and biomarker analysis in patients with bone-only disease: a joint analysis of PALOMA-2 and PALOMA-3 clinical trials

Purpose

This analysis evaluated the relationship between treatment-free interval (TFI, in PALOMA-2)/disease-free interval (DFI, in PALOMA-3) and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS, in PALOMA-3), treatment effect in patients with bone-only disease, and whether intrinsic subtype affects PFS in patients receiving palbociclib.

Methods

Data were from phase 3, randomized PALOMA-2 and PALOMA-3 clinical studies of hormone receptor‒positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2‒negative (HR+ /HER2−) advanced breast cancer (ABC) patients receiving endocrine therapy plus palbociclib or placebo. Subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot (STEPP) analysis evaluated the association between DFI and PFS and OS. PFS by luminal subtype and cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 or endocrine pathway gene expression levels were evaluated in patients with bone-only disease; median PFS and OS were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

Median durations of TFI were 37.1 and 30.9 months (PALOMA-2) and DFI were 49.2 and 52.0 months (PALOMA-3) in the palbociclib and placebo groups, respectively. Among the PALOMA-2 biomarker population (n = 454), 23% had bone-only disease; median PFS was longer with palbociclib versus placebo (31.3 vs 11.2 months; hazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI 0.25‒0.69). The interaction effect of bone-only versus visceral disease subgroups on median PFS with palbociclib was not significant (P = 0.262). Among the PALOMA-3 biomarker population (n = 302), 27% had bone-only disease. STEPP analyses showed that palbociclib PFS benefit was not affected by DFI, and that palbociclib OS effect may be smaller in patients with short DFIs. Among patients who provided metastatic tumor tissues (n = 142), regardless of luminal A (hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI 0.11‒0.47; P = 0.0000158) or luminal B (hazard ratio, 0.26; 95% CI 0.12‒0.56; P = 0.000269) subtype, palbociclib improved PFS versus placebo.

Conclusions

These findings support palbociclib plus endocrine therapy as standard of care for HR+ /HER2− ABC patients, regardless of baseline TFI/DFI or intrinsic molecular subtype, including patients with bone-only disease.

Trial registration

Pfizer (clinicaltrials.gov:NCT01740427, NCT01942135).

Primary 21-Gene Recurrence Score and Disease Outcome in Loco-Regional and Distant Recurrent Breast Cancer Patients

Background: The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay has been proven prognostic and predictive for hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative, node-negative early breast cancer patients. However, whether primary 21-gene RS can predict prognosis in recurrent breast cancer patients remained unknown.

Patients and Methods: Consecutive breast cancer patients operated in Comprehensive Breast Health Center, Shanghai Ruijin Hospital between January 2009 and December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with available 21-gene RS result for the primary tumor and reporting disease recurrence during follow-up were included. Association of 21-gene RS and overall survival (OS), post-recurrence overall survival (PR-OS), post-recurrence progression-free survival (PR-PFS), and first-line systemic treatment after recurrence were compared among different groups.

Results: A total of 74 recurrent patients were included, with 10, 27, 37 patients in the RS <18, 18–30, and ≥ 31 groups, respectively. Recurrent patients with RS ≥ 31 were more likely to receive chemotherapy as their first-line treatment compared to those with RS <31 (P = 0.025). Compared to those with RS <31, patients with RS ≥ 31 had significantly worse OS (P = 0.025), worse PR-OS (P = 0.026), and a trend of inferior PR-PFS (P = 0.106). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that primary ER expression level (OS: P = 0.009; PR-OS: P = 0.017) and histological grade (OS: P = 0.003; PR-OS: P = 0.009), but not primary 21-gene RS (OS: P = 0.706; PR-OS: P = 0.120), were independently associated with worse OS and PR-OS.

Conclusions: High primary 21-gene RS tended to be associated with worse disease outcome in loco-regional and distant recurrent breast cancer patients, which could influence the first-line systemic treatment after relapse, warranting further clinical evaluation.

A large-cohort retrospective study of metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes between inflammatory and non-inflammatory breast cancer

Background and aims:

Breast cancer-related death is attributable mainly to metastasis. Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is an infrequent subtype of breast cancer that shows a relatively high rate of metastasis. In this study, we aimed to compare the metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes of IBC and non-inflammatory breast cancer (non-IBC).

Methods:

We extracted data between 2010 and 2014 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The Chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test were used to compare the categorical parameters among different groups. Logistic regression was applied for multivariate analysis. The Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to analyze prognosis.

Results:

We enrolled 233,686 breast cancer patients between 2010 and 2014 in our research, including 2806 IBC and 230,880 non-IBC patients. Compared with the non-IBC group, the IBC group tended to have a higher incidence of the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive (HER2+) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtypes, older age, a higher rate of unmarried status, a lower incidence of black race, poorer tumor differentiation, larger tumor sizes, and a higher frequency of regional lymph node invasion. IBC and non-IBC shared similar trends in molecular subtypes among different metastatic organs. The percentage of the hormone receptor positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2–) subtype decreased gradually in patients with lung (IBC 42.5%, non-IBC 55.7%), distant lymph node (IBC 41.5%, non-IBC 54.6%), liver (IBC 31.1%, non-IBC 46.7%), and brain (IBC 30.6%, non-IBC 47.9%) metastases compared with that in patients with bone (IBC 50.8%, non-IBC 69.0%) metastasis in both cohorts. In both the IBC and non-IBC cases, the proportion of visceral metastases increased in the TNBC subtype, especially brain metastasis (IBC 26.4%, non-IBC 21.2%), which had the largest increase. The frequencies of all sites (bone, lung, liver, brain, and distant lymph node) in IBC were much higher than those in non-IBC (bone: IBC 21.1%, non-IBC 3.0%; lung: IBC 11.4%, non-IBC 1.4%; liver: IBC 9.6%, non-IBC 1.2%; brain: IBC 2.6%, non-IBC 0.3%; distant lymph node: IBC 12.9%, non-IBC 1.0%). The most frequent bi-site metastasis was the bone and liver (IBC 2.5%, non-IBC 0.3%), and the most frequent tri-site combination was the bone, lung, and liver (IBC 1.1%, non-IBC 0.2%). Kaplan–Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models suggested that the IBC cohort had poorer overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) 1.602, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.496–1.716, p < 0.001] and breast cancer-specific survival (HR 1.511, 95% CI 1.402–1.628, p < 0.001) than the non-IBC cohort. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that IBC was an independent prognostic factor in patients with different metastatic sites.

Conclusion:

IBC and non-IBC patients presented with different metastatic frequencies, clinical features and prognostic outcomes. Our findings provide more information for therapeutic decision making and clinical study designs.

De novo metastatic breast cancer: Subgroup analysis of molecular subtypes and prognosis

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the clinical and pathological characteristics, treatment, and prognosis of de novo metastatic breast cancer (DnMBC). Information regarding 1,890 patients treated for advanced breast cancer at the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Hospital between January 2008 to December 2017 was collected. Clinicopathological characteristics, treatments and outcomes of these patients were compared using the chi-square test, log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. A total of 171 patients were diagnosed with DnMBC. The median age at diagnosis was 53 years (range, 23–77). The percentage of T4 staging was higher (37.4%), 69.6% of patients were estrogen receptor (ER) positive, 59.1% were progesterone receptor positive, 29.8% had positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, 68.4% had Ki-67 ≥20%, 55% had oligometastasis at the initial diagnosis, ~87.7% were treated with chemotherapy initially and 24% received palliative surgery for the primary tumor. After a median follow-up time of 26 months, the median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with DnMBC were 11 (8.7–13.3) months and 34 (27.9–40.1) months, respectively. In the multivariable model, ER status and sites of first metastasis (oligometastasis or polymetastasis) were identified to be independent predictors of PFS (P<0.05); ER status, primary tumor stage, and surgical treatment of primary tumors were identified to be independent predictors of OS (P<0.05). In conclusion, the clinicopathological characteristics of DnMBC are greater invasiveness and a higher risk of progression. Palliative surgical treatment may improve the prognosis of HR+/HER2-patients with oligometastasis. Therefore, individualized treatment as required is particularly important.

Breast cancer subtypes and the risk of distant metastasis at initial diagnosis: a population-based study

Background

It was unclear whether breast cancer subtypes are associated with the risk of site-specific metastases. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between molecular subtypes and distant metastatic sites and their prognostic significance.

Methods

We identified 295,213 patients with invasive breast cancer from 2010 to 2014 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Subtypes were classified into four categories: hormone receptor (HR⁺)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2⁻), HR⁺/HER2⁺, HR⁻/HER2⁺, and triple-negative (HR⁻/HER2⁻). Logistic regression was used to assess the association between metastasis location and subtypes. Multivariate Cox models were used to estimate the overall survival (OS) of related factors.

Results

According to our study, 3.28%, 1.52%, 1.20%, and 0.35% of newly diagnosed breast cancers presented bone, lung, liver, and brain metastases at diagnosis, respectively. Both metastatic sites and subtypes significantly affected the OS after metastasis. In multivariate analysis, HR⁺/HER2⁺ subtype (OR as compared with HR⁺/HER2⁻ subtype, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.22–1.39]) significantly correlated with elevated bone metastasis risk, whereas HR⁻/HER2⁺ did not. Both HER2⁺ subtypes (HR⁺/HER2⁺ and HR⁻/HER2⁺) were significantly associated with higher rates of liver, brain, and lung metastases, while the highest OR was observed in liver metastases. Triple-negative tumors had a higher rate of brain (OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.61–2.35]), liver (OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.20–1.51]), and lung metastases (OR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.21–1.47]), but a significantly lower rate of bone metastases (OR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.59–0.69]) than HR⁺/HER2−tumors.

Conclusions

Breast cancer subtypes are associated with different metastatic patterns and confer different prognostic impacts. Molecular subtypes can identify patients at increased risk of site-specific metastases.

Only estrogen receptor "positive" is not enough to predict the prognosis of breast cancer

PURPOSE

Beginning in 2018, biomarkers including estrogen receptor (ER) status were incorporated in the 8th AJCC staging system. ER expression levels were not considered in these changes. We hypothesized that the levels of ER expression could affect the prognosis of breast cancer.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted to identify all female patients with invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2012. ER negative (group I), weakly ER-positive (group II), and strongly ER-positive (group III) were defined as Allred total scores of 0-2, 3-5, and 6-8, respectively. We examined a multigene panel, designated the BCT score, which is a newly developed prognostic model for predicting the risk of a distant metastasis.

RESULTS

Among the 4949 patients enrolled in this study, 1310 (26.5%), 361 (7.3%), and 3277 (66.2%) were categorized as group I, II, and III, respectively. Median F/U duration was 57.8 months. Compared to group III, patients in group II were younger, had larger tumors, and were also more likely to have PR-negative tumors, HER-2 amplification, high Ki-67, and high nuclear grade. Between group II and III, there was a significant difference in OS (P = 0.0764, 0.909, and 0.010, respectively). After adjusting for additional factors that may affect OS, the HR for OS showed higher in group II than in group III. The baseline median BCT score indicated that lower ER expression was associated with significantly higher BCT score (P < 0.0001) and significantly more likely to have high risk group (P < 0.0001) relative to higher levels of ER expression group.

CONCLUSION

ER expression levels affect the prognosis of breast cancer. The risk for patients with weakly ER-positive breast cancer should not be underestimated.

Score for the Survival Probability in Metastasis Breast Cancer: A Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment Model

PURPOSE

Survival of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patient remains unknown and varies greatly from person to person. Thus, we aimed to construct a nomogram to quantify the survival probability of patients with MBC.

Materials and Methods

We had included 793 MBC patients and calculated trends of case fatality rate by Kaplan-Meier method and joinpoint regression. Six hundred thirty-four patients with MBC between January 2004 and July 2011 and 159 patients with MBC between August 2011 and July 2013 were assigned to training cohort and internal validation cohort, respectively. We constructed the nomogram based on the results of univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses in the training cohort and validated the nomogram in the validation cohort. Concordance index and calibration curves were used to assess the effectiveness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Case fatality rate of MBC was increasing (annual percentage change [APC], 21.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 46.3; p < 0.05) in the first 18 months and then decreased (APC, ‒4.5; 95% CI, ‒8.2 to ‒0.7; p < 0.05). Metastasis-free interval, age, metastasis location, and hormone receptor status were independent prognostic factors and were included in the nomogram, which had a concordance index of 0.69 in the training cohort and 0.67 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good consistency between the two cohorts at 1 and 3 years.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the fatality risk of MBC was increasing and reached the summit between 13th and 18th month afterthe detection of MBC. We have developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year survival probability in MBC.

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting the overall survival of stage IV breast cancer patients

This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of stage IV breast cancer patients. We searched the National Cancer Database (NCDB) for stage IV breast cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2013. Predictors of OS were identified and a nomogram was developed and validated using concordance index (C‐index), calibration plots, and risk group stratifications. A total of 7199 patients from the NCDB were included in the study. With a median follow‐up of 25.7 months, the 1‐year and 3‐year OS rates were 80.6% and 52.5%, respectively. Race, age, comorbidity status, T‐stage, grade, ER/PR/Her2 status, the presence of lung/liver/brain metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with OS. The developed nomogram had a C‐index of 0.722 (95% CI 0.710–0.734) and 0.725 (95% CI 0.713–0.736) in the training and the validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted survival using the nomogram is well correlated with actual OS. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into different risk groups, among which the survival benefit of local therapy varied. We developed a nomogram to predict the overall survival of stage IV breast cancer patients. Prospectively designed studies with international collaborations are needed to further validate our nomogram.

Patterns of Care and Clinical Outcomes of HER2-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV or Recurrent Disease Undergoing First-line Trastuzumab-based Therapy: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to compare the patterns of care and clinical outcomes of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients with de novo or recurrent disease who underwent first-line trastuzumab-based therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including consecutive patients with HER2-positive MBC who received first-line trastuzumab-based therapy. Analyses on treatment response and effectiveness were conducted according to type of metastatic presentation (ie, de novo vs. recurrent disease). Exploratory analyses were used to evaluate whether the use of surgery of the primary tumor in the de novo cohort influenced patients' survival.

RESULTS

From January 2000 to December 2013, 416 patients were included in the study, 113 (27.2%) presented with de novo MBC and 303 (72.8%) with recurrent disease. Compared with patients in the recurrence cohort, those in the de novo cohort had worse baseline characteristics, received more aggressive first-line treatments, and showed better survival, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for progression-free survival (PFS) of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.97; P = .035) and for overall survival (OS) of 0.53 (95% CI, 0.30-0.95; P = .034). In the de novo cohort, the 54 patients (47.8%) who underwent surgery of the primary tumor had significantly better PFS (adjusted HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.26-0.72; P = .001) and OS (adjusted HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.93; P = .029) than those who did not undergo surgery.

CONCLUSION

Patients with de novo HER2-positive MBC showed significantly better survival outcomes than those with recurrent disease. In this population, surgery of the primary breast tumor was associated with better outcomes.

Impact of molecular subtypes on metastatic breast cancer patients: a SEER population-based study

To investigate the significance and impact of molecular subtyping stratification on metastatic breast cancer patients, we identified 159,344 female breast cancer patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database with known hormone receptor (HoR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. 4.8% of patients were identified as having stage IV disease, and were more likely to be HER2+/HoR−, HER2+/HoR+, or HER2−/HoR−. Stage IV breast cancer patients with a HER2+/HoR+ status exhibited the highest median overall survival (OS) (44.0 months) and those with a HER2−/HoR− status exhibited the lowest median OS (13.0 months). Patients with a HER2−/HoR+ status had more bone metastasis, whereas patients with a HER2+/HoR− status had an increased incidence of liver metastasis. Brain and lung metastasis were more likely to occur in women with a HER2−/HoR− status. The multivariable analysis revealed a significant interaction between single metastasis and molecular subtype. No matter which molecular subtype, women who did not undergo primary tumour surgery had worse survival than those who experienced primary tumour surgery. Collectively, our findings advanced the understanding that molecular subtype might lead to more tailored and effective therapies in metastatic breast cancer patients.