Risk profiling based on p16 and HPV DNA more accurately predicts location of disease relapse in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Epidemiological trends and survival of oropharyngeal cancer in a high HPV-prevalent area: A Danish population-based study from 2000 to 2020

Denmark, alongside other Scandinavian countries, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, has high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV). Our oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) database includes all diagnosed cases in Eastern Denmark during a period of more than two decades. We investigated the incidence, survival, and recurrence of patients with OPSCC with combined p16- and HPV testing covering a consecutive 21-year period. Age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) per 100,000, survival models, and Cox proportional-hazards model were employed. Two thousand eight hundred thirty-four patients were included (57.5% HPV positive (HPV+)/p16 positive (p16+), 33.7% HPV negative (HPV-)/p16 negative (p16-), 4% HPV+/p16-, and 4.8% HPV-/p16+). The AAIR for all patients increased from 1.8 to 5.1 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020 linked to an increasing AAIR of HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs from 0.9 to 3.5 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020. The AAIR for the HPV-/p16- OPSCCs decreased from 1.6 to 1.4 from 2017 to 2020. HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs had a higher 5-year overall survival (OS) of 79.2% compared to the other subgroups (HPV+/p16- OS: 50.4%; HPV-/p16+ OS: 49.4%; HPV-/p16- OS: 35.1%). The AAIR of the total OPSCC group increased from year 2000 to 2020, driven by a rise in the HPV+/p16+ group. A decreasing incidence rate was observed for the HPV-/p16- OPSCCs from 2017 to 2020. The OS for HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs was significantly higher compared to all other HPV/p16 subgroups. Therefore, we recommend testing for combined HPV and p16 status in patients with OPSCC when selecting patients for clinical trials, especially in case of de-escalating/escalating.

[Update: Epidemiology and Prevention of Oropharyngeal Cancer]

Due to the association with the causal HPV-16 infection, the oropharyngeal carcinoma spreads into two separate entities depending on HPV-16 positivity. More recent data show a diversified picture of the importance and prevalence of the surrogate parameter p16 (discordance) for a definitive HPV-16 association, which varies worldwide. In the context of prevention options, vaccination is of major and HPV screening of healthy people only of little importance.

Management of unknown primary head and neck cancer with radiation therapy in the era of human papillomavirus (HPV): No longer cutting down the tree to get an apple

PURPOSE

Given the central role that radiation has in the management of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary origin, it is imperative to review how treatment paradigms have been refined and continue to evolve in the modern era.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This study was designed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) statement. A literature search of peer-reviewed publications was undertaken to identify works pertaining to the use of radiation for squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary origin presenting as cervical lymph node metastases. Articles published from January 2002 to January 2023 with full text available on PubMed and restricted to the English language and human subjects were included. The full bibliographies of identified articles were reviewed and irrelevant studies were removed.

RESULTS

While such breakthroughs as intensity-modulated radiotherapy, positron emission tomography, biomarker testing with immune-histochemistry, and minimally invasive surgical techniques such as transoral robotic surgery have fundamentally changed the approach to this disease in recent decades, controversies still exist with respect to the manner in which radiation is delivered. Although the incidence of head and neck unknown primary cancer is relatively low, questions regarding the necessity of comprehensive radiation using the age-old standard method of targeting the bilateral necks and entire pharyngeal axis to encompass all putative sites of mucosal disease persist.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective evidence is lacking, and the available studies have been complicated by such factors as the relatively limited sample sizes, as well as the variability in work-up, treatment, inclusion criteria, and follow-up. Regardless, advances in science and technology have ushered in more precise approaches with a high degree of customization, particularly given the increased proportion of patients presenting with human papillomavirus-related disease.

Liquid Biopsies with Circulating Plasma HPV-DNA Measurements-A Clinically Applicable Surveillance Tool for Patients with HPV-Positive Oropharyngeal Cancer

PURPOSE

To evaluate the accuracy of cell-free human papillomavirus-DNA (cfHPV-DNA) measurements in liquid biopsies in predicting disease in patients with HPV-positive/p16-positive (HPV+/p16+) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

This was a prospective cohort study. Plasma samples were collected before treatment, serially after curative intended therapy at follow-up visits 2 weeks, and 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 30 months after treatment. A droplet digital PCR assay comprising eight HPV genotypes was used. HPV genotypes found in plasma and tumor tissue were compared. We correlated biopsy- or imaging-verified tumor progression to cfHPV-DNA in follow-up samples.

RESULTS

We enrolled 72 patients with HPV+/p16+ OPSCC. Baseline sensitivity for cfHPV-DNA detection was 97.2% (95% confidence interval, 90.3%-99.6%). CfHPV-DNA copy number/milliliter plasma correlated with tumor stage. We found a 100% concordance between HPV genotype in tumor tissue and plasma. Fifty-four patients were followed with serial blood samples for a median of 19.7 months (interquartile range, 13.5-25.5 months). Forty-one patients had undetectable plasma cfHPV-DNA in all follow-up samples, and none developed recurrences. Thirteen patients were classified as cfHPV-DNA-positive in a follow-up plasma sample. Of these, five patients developed a recurrence, and three had residual cancer. It was possible to detect cfHPV-DNA in plasma 97 to 166 days prior to the proven recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, to date, our study, comprising the largest study of patients with HPV+/p16+ OPSCC, using an ultrasensitive multiplex HPV gene panel, revealed a high sensitivity of cfHPV-DNA detection in the liquid biopsies. We recommend serial plasma HPV samples for clinical monitoring of patients with HPV+/p16+ OPSCC.

Predicting HPV association using deep learning and regular H&E stains allows granular stratification of oropharyngeal cancer patients

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) represents an OPSCC subgroup with an overall good prognosis with a rising incidence in Western countries. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that HPV-associated tumors are not a homogeneous tumor entity, underlining the need for accurate prognostic biomarkers. In this retrospective, multi-institutional study involving 906 patients from four centers and one database, we developed a deep learning algorithm (OPSCCnet), to analyze standard H&E stains for the calculation of a patient-level score associated with prognosis, comparing it to combined HPV-DNA and p16-status. When comparing OPSCCnet to HPV-status, the algorithm showed a good overall performance with a mean area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.77-0.9) for the test cohort (n = 639), which could be increased to AUROC = 0.88 by filtering cases using a fixed threshold on the variance of the probability of the HPV-positive class - a potential surrogate marker of HPV-heterogeneity. OPSCCnet could be used as a screening tool, outperforming gold standard HPV testing (OPSCCnet: five-year survival rate: 96% [95% CI = 90-100%]; HPV testing: five-year survival rate: 80% [95% CI = 71-90%]). This could be confirmed using a multivariate analysis of a three-tier threshold (OPSCCnet: high HR = 0.15 [95% CI = 0.05-0.44], intermediate HR = 0.58 [95% CI = 0.34-0.98] p = 0.043, Cox proportional hazards model, n = 211; HPV testing: HR = 0.29 [95% CI = 0.15-0.54] p < 0.001, Cox proportional hazards model, n = 211). Collectively, our findings indicate that by analyzing standard gigapixel hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) histological whole-slide images, OPSCCnet demonstrated superior performance over p16/HPV-DNA testing in various clinical scenarios, particularly in accurately stratifying these patients.

Exploring the potential impact of human papillomavirus on infertility and assisted reproductive technology outcomes

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a common sexually transmitted disease that has been linked to both cancer and reproductive health issues. While its impact on fertility and pregnancy success has been studied, there is still too little evidence about the influence of HPV on assisted reproductive technology (ART). Therefore, there exists a need for HPV testing in couples undergoing infertility treatments. Infertile men have been found to have a higher prevalence of seminal HPV infection, which can compromise sperm quality and reproductive function. As such, it could be important to investigate the correlation between HPV and ART outcomes in order to improve the quality of evidence. Understanding the potentially detrimental effects of HPV on ART outcomes may have promising important implications for the management of infertility. This minireview summarizes the so far limited developments in this area and highlights the major need for further well-designed studies to address this issue.

Prognostic implications of p16 and HPV discordance in oropharyngeal cancer (HNCIG-EPIC-OPC): a multicentre, multinational, individual patient data analysis

BACKGROUND

p16^INK4a (p16) immunohistochemistry is the most widely used biomarker assay for inferring HPV causation in oropharyngeal cancer in clinical and trial settings. However, discordance exists between p16 and HPV DNA or RNA status in some patients with oropharyngeal cancer. We aimed to clearly quantify the extent of discordance, and its prognostic implications.

METHODS

In this multicentre, multinational individual patient data analysis, we did a literature search in PubMed and Cochrane database for systematic reviews and original studies published in English between Jan 1, 1970, and Sept 30, 2022. We included retrospective series and prospective cohorts of consecutively recruited patients previously analysed in individual studies with minimum cohort size of 100 patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx. Patient inclusion criteria were diagnosis with a primary squamous cell carcinoma of oropharyngeal cancer; data on p16 immunohistochemistry and on HPV testing; information on age, sex, tobacco, and alcohol use; staging by TNM 7th edition; information on treatments received; and data on clinical outcomes and follow-up (date of last follow-up if alive, date of recurrence or metastasis, and date and cause of death). There were no limits on age or performance status. The primary outcomes were the proportion of patients of the overall cohort who showed the different p16 and HPV result combinations, as well as 5-year overall survival and 5-year disease-free survival. Patients with recurrent or metastatic disease or who were treated palliatively were excluded from overall survival and disease-free survival analyses. Multivariable analysis models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for different p16 and HPV testing methods for overall survival, adjusted for prespecified confounding factors.

FINDINGS

Our search returned 13 eligible studies that provided individual data for 13 cohorts of patients with oropharyngeal cancer from the UK, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Spain. 7895 patients with oropharyngeal cancer were assessed for eligibility. 241 were excluded before analysis, and 7654 were eligible for p16 and HPV analysis. 5714 (74·7%) of 7654 patients were male and 1940 (25·3%) were female. Ethnicity data were not reported. 3805 patients were p16-positive, 415 (10·9%) of whom were HPV-negative. This proportion differed significantly by geographical region and was highest in the areas with lowest HPV-attributable fractions (r=-0·744, p=0·0035). The proportion of patients with p16+/HPV- oropharyngeal cancer was highest in subsites outside the tonsil and base of tongue (29·7% vs 9·0%, p<0·0001). 5-year overall survival was 81·1% (95% CI 79·5-82·7) for p16+/HPV+, 40·4% (38·6-42·4) for p16-/HPV-, 53·2% (46·6-60·8) for p16-/HPV+, and 54·7% (49·2-60·9) for p16+/HPV-. 5-year disease-free survival was 84·3% (95% CI 82·9-85·7) for p16+/HPV+, 60·8% (58·8-62·9) for p16-/HPV-; 71·1% (64·7-78·2) for p16-/HPV+, and 67·9% (62·5-73·7) for p16+/HPV-. Results were similar across all European sub-regions, but there were insufficient numbers of discordant patients from North America to draw conclusions in this cohort.

INTERPRETATION

Patients with discordant oropharyngeal cancer (p16-/HPV+ or p16+/HPV-) had a significantly worse prognosis than patients with p16+/HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer, and a significantly better prognosis than patients with p16-/HPV- oropharyngeal cancer. Along with routine p16 immunohistochemistry, HPV testing should be mandated for clinical trials for all patients (or at least following a positive p16 test), and is recommended where HPV status might influence patient care, especially in areas with low HPV-attributable fractions.

FUNDING

European Regional Development Fund, Generalitat de Catalunya, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) UK, Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council UK, and The Swedish Cancer Foundation and the Stockholm Cancer Society.

Impact of specific high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes on survival in oropharyngeal cancer

The increases observed in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but the survival-impact of specific genotypes is poorly understood. We investigated the potential influence of HPV genotypes on survival in HPV-positive (HPV+) OPSCC. All patients with HPV+/p16+ OPSCC and available genotype data within the period 2011 to 2017 in Eastern Denmark were included. Descriptive statistics on clinical and tumor data, as well as overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) with Cox hazard models and Kaplan-Meier plots were performed. Overall, 769 HPV+/p16+ OPSCC patients were included of which genotype HPV16 accounted for 86% (n = 662). Compared to high-risk non-HPV16 genotypes (HR non-HPV16), HPV16 patients were younger at diagnosis (median years, 60 vs 64), had a higher male to female ratio (3.7:1 vs 2.1:1), and lower performance scores of ≤1 (90%, n = 559, vs 81%, n = 74). Regarding 5-year OS and RFS, no difference was observed between HPV16 and HR non-HPV16 patients. Subgrouping the HR non-HPV16 group into HPV33 (n = 57), HPV35 (n = 26) and "other genotypes" (n = 24) a significantly worse OS in the "other genotypes" group (hazard rate: 2.33, P = .027) was shown. With similar survival results between HPV16 and non-HPV16 genotypes, genotyping in OPSCC is interesting from an epidemiological point of view as well as in vaccination programs, but not a necessary addition in prognostication of HPV+/p16+ OPSCC.

Genotype Distribution and Prevalence of Human Papillomavirus in Head and Neck Cancer Samples from Istanbul, Turkey

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated tumors account for a significant proportion of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) in developed countries. In recent years, there has been a rise of HPV infections associated with HNSCC, especially HPV16, which is the most commonly detected type in oral and oropharyngeal cancers. To investigate the frequency of HPV-driven HNSCC among patients living in Turkey, HPV DNA positivity and p16INK4A expression were assessed in primary tumor biopsies (n = 106). Eighteen out of one hundred and six (19%) HNSCC tumors showed p16INK4A overexpression, and 26/106 cases (24.5%) were positive for HPV DNA. Sixteen out of twenty-six samples were positive for both HPV DNA and p16INK4A staining. HPV16 could be isolated from 22/26 samples (84.6%) and was found to be the most frequently detected HPV type. This study represents the largest cohort of Turkish patients with HNSCC characterized according to HPV status and p16INK4A expression. Our data suggest that HPV16 infection, along with smoking, contribute to the development of HNSCC.

Disease-free time stratification in locally recurrent head and neck carcinoma after definitive radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

There is no standard definition of disease-free interval before local recurrence after treatment in head and neck carcinoma (HNSCC). We evaluated an easy-to-use stratification and its association with survival in a large cohort of patients.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of prognostic variables in 325 HNSCC patients with a local recurrence after definitive radiotherapy or concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Endpoints were overall survival (OS) and post-recurrence survival (PRS).

RESULTS

Variables associated with the survival were the patient age (OS p < 0.0001, PRS p < 0.0001), the initial disease stage (OS p = 0.24, PRS p = 0.0358), localization (OS p = 0.012, PRS p = 0.0002), a complete initial response to treatment (OS p < 0.0001, PRS p = 0.019), synchronous regional or distant metastatic disease (OS p = 0.0094, PRS p < 0.0001), a salvage surgery (OS p < 0.0001, PRS p < 0.0001) and time to recurrence (OS p = 0.0002, PRS p = 0.0029). Time to recurrence could be stratified between specific prognostic time categories that comprised disease persistence, early recurrence (< 12 months), standard recurrence (12 months-5 years) and late recurrence (> 5 years).

CONCLUSION

In HNSCC patients, time to local recurrence is a prognostic variable that can be defined using an easy-to-use stratification.

HPV Status as Prognostic Biomarker in Head and Neck Cancer-Which Method Fits the Best for Outcome Prediction?

The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related head and neck cancer (HNSCC) is rising globally, presenting challenges for optimized clinical management. To date, it remains unclear which biomarker best reflects HPV-driven carcinogenesis, a process that is associated with better therapeutic response and outcome compared to tobacco/alcohol-induced cancers. Six potential HPV surrogate biomarkers were analyzed using FFPE tissue samples from 153 HNSCC patients (n = 78 oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC), n = 35 laryngeal cancer, n = 23 hypopharyngeal cancer, n = 17 oral cavity cancer): p16, CyclinD1, pRb, dual immunohistochemical staining of p16 and Ki67, HPV-DNA-PCR, and HPV-DNA-in situ hybridization (ISH). Biomarkers were analyzed for correlation with one another, tumor subsite, and patient survival. P16-IHC alone showed the best performance for discriminating between good (high expression) vs poor outcome (low expression; p = 0.0030) in OPSCC patients. Additionally, HPV-DNA-ISH (p = 0.0039), HPV-DNA-PCR (p = 0.0113), and p16-Ki67 dual stain (p = 0.0047) were significantly associated with prognosis in uni- and multivariable analysis for oropharyngeal cancer. In the non-OPSCC group, however, none of the aforementioned surrogate markers was prognostic. Taken together, P16-IHC as a single biomarker displays the best diagnostic accuracy for prognosis stratification in OPSCC patients with a direct detection of HPV-DNA by PCR or ISH as well as p16-Ki67 dual stain as potential alternatives.

Human Papillomavirus and Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Unknown Primary in the Head and Neck Region: A Comprehensive Review on Clinical Implications

Squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary (SCCUP) is a challenging diagnostic subgroup of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). The incidence of SCCUP is increasing in parallel with the well-documented increase in OPSCC and is likewise driven by the increase in human papillomavirus (HPV). The SCCUP patient often presents with a cystic lymph node metastasis and undergoes an aggressive diagnostic and treatment program. Detection of HPV in cytologic specimens indicates an oropharyngeal primary tumor origin and can guide the further diagnostic strategy. Advances in diagnostic modalities, e.g., transoral robotic surgery and transoral laser microsurgery, have increased the successful identification of the primary tumor site in HPV-induced SCCUP, and this harbors a potential for de-escalation treatment and increased survival. This review provides an overview of HPV-induced SCCUP, diagnostic modalities, and treatment options.

Current Status of Human Papillomavirus-Related Head and Neck Cancer: From Viral Genome to Patient Care

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection identified as a definitive human carcinogen is increasingly being recognized for its role in carcinogenesis of human cancers. Up to 38%–80% of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in oropharyngeal location (OPSCC) and nearly all cervical cancers contain the HPV genome which is implicated in causing cancer through its oncoproteins E6 and E7. Given by the biologically distinct HPV-related OPSCC and a more favorable prognosis compared to HPV-negative tumors, clinical trials on de-escalation treatment strategies for these patients have been studied. It is therefore raised the questions for the patient stratification if treatment de-escalation is feasible. Moreover, understanding the crosstalk of HPV-mediated malignancy and immunity with clinical insights from the proportional response rate to immune checkpoint blockade treatments in patients with HNSCC is of importance to substantially improve the treatment efficacy. This review discusses the biology of HPV-related HNSCC as well as successful clinically findings with promising candidates in the pipeline for future directions. With the advent of various sequencing technologies, further biomolecules associated with HPV-related HNSCC progression are currently being identified to be used as potential biomarkers or targets for clinical decisions throughout the continuum of cancer care.

[Medicinal tumor treatment of oropharyngeal cancer]

BACKGROUND

The number of patients suffering from human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancer has increased in recent decades. To date, the role of medical therapy in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region has only been established in the refractory or metastatic setting (r/m HNSCC).

OBJECTIVE

What are the current treatment options for patients with r/m HNSCC or r/m oropharyngeal cancer?

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A literature search was conducted on systemic treatment of oropharyngeal cancer and r/m HNSCC.

RESULTS

There is currently no standard treatment for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in refractory or metastatic stages. Since 2017, immunotherapy with checkpoint inhibitors has become increasingly important in the treatment of r/m HNSCC patients. First-line therapy was recently adapted based on the results of the KEYNOTE-48 (KN048) study. For selected patients with r/m HNSCC, there now exists a chemotherapy-free treatment option. Use of immunotherapy also in earlier stages of HNSCC can be expected in the near future.

CONCLUSION

Medical therapy of r/m HNSCC patients is in a period of great change. Treatment is increasingly based on combination therapy with checkpoint inhibitors.

[The 8th edition of the TNM staging system-a curse or a blessing for oropharyngeal carcinoma?]

At the beginning of 2017, the 8th edition of the TNM classification was presented. For oropharyngeal carcinoma, this was accompanied by a paradigm shift, as a separation of the classification depending on the association with human papillomavirus (HPV) status has been established. By considering the literature, this paper provides an overview of the characteristics of HPV-associated carcinomas, the new features of the TNM classification, and the existing points of discussion. The revision has improved the prognostic significance of the TNM classification; however, there are still tumor- and patient-dependent influencing factors that must be considered for future versions.

Radiation Therapy Alone for Human Papillomavirus-Related Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx: A Single-Arm, Phase 2 Study

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (OPSCC) is extremely radiosensitive. Radiation therapy plus high-dose cisplatin remains the standard of care but causes long-term toxicity. Treatment deintensification approaches that reduce toxicity while maintaining survival are desirable for HPV-related OPSCC.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We conducted a single-arm, multicenter, phase 2 trial. Patients with newly diagnosed, biopsy-proven, American Joint Committee on Cancer (seventh edition) stage III or IV OPSCC positive for both p16 and HPV DNA were eligible. Patients with T4, N3, or T1N1 disease were excluded. Smoking history was not included in eligibility criteria. Patients received intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) of 70 Gy in 35 fractions or 70.4 Gy in 32 fractions without chemotherapy. The primary endpoint was complete response or complete metabolic response 10 weeks after IMRT completion.

RESULTS

Between September 13, 2013, and November 15, 2016, 39 patients were enrolled according to a 2-stage Simon design. Twenty-three patients (59%) had smoked for more than10 pack-years. Thirty-six patients (92%) had tumors genotyped as HPV16. Thirty-seven patients (95%) received full-dose radiation therapy and 35 (90%) had complete response or complete metabolic response. Median follow-up was 51 months (interquartile range, 41-63 months). One patient (3%) had regional recurrence and 3 (8%) had distant metastasis. One patient died of disease. The 2-year progression-free survival rate was 94% (95% CI, 81%-99%), and the 2-year overall survival rate was 100%. Common grade 3 adverse events during IMRT included mucositis in 10 patients (26%) and dysphagia in 7 patients (18%). No patients were dependent on a feeding tube at 1 month after IMRT completion. No grade 3 or 4 late adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

IMRT alone is associated with excellent response as well as reduced toxicity and could be a treatment option for carefully selected patients with locally advanced "true" HPV-related OPSCC. Further studies are warranted.

Development and validation of a web-based calculator to predict individualized conditional risk of site-specific recurrence in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of 10,058 endemic cases

Background

Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time. Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking, we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web‐based calculator to predict individualized, conditional site‐specific recurrence risk.

Methods

Using an NPC‐specific database with a big‐data intelligence platform, 10,058 endemic patients with non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC receiving intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated. Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival (COS), conditional disease‐free survival (CDFS), conditional locoregional relapse‐free survival (CLRRFS), conditional distant metastasis‐free survival (CDMFS), and conditional NPC‐specific survival (CNPC‐SS) were calculated. Covariate‐adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting. A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent, non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (n = 601) at another institution.

Results

The median follow‐up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months. The 5‐year COS, CDFS, CLRRFS, CDMFS, and CNPC‐SS increased from 86.2%, 78.1%, 89.8%, 87.3%, and 87.6% at diagnosis to 87.3%, 87.7%, 94.4%, 96.0%, and 90.1%, respectively, for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis. Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time, whereas an ever‐increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time. Notably, the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer. For individualized CS predictions, we developed a web‐based model to estimate the conditional risk of local (C‐index, 0.656), regional (0.667), bone (0.742), lung (0.681), and liver (0.711) recurrence, which significantly outperformed the current staging system (P < 0.001). The performance of this web‐based model was further validated using an external validation cohort (median follow‐up, 61.3 months), with C‐indices of 0.672, 0.736, 0.754, 0.663, and 0.721, respectively.

Conclusions

We characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date. Moreover, we established a web‐based calculator to predict the CS of site‐specific recurrence, which may help to tailor individualized, risk‐based, time‐adapted follow‐up strategies.

Vulvar cancer subclassification by HPV and p53 status results in three clinically distinct subtypes

OBJECTIVE

There is great need for better risk stratification in vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC). Our aim was to define the prognostic significance of stratifying VSCC based on p16 and p53 immunohistochemistry (IHC) as surrogate markers for HPV and TP53 mutations.

METHODS

A large retrospective cohort of surgically treated women with primary VSCC was used. VSCC were classified into three subtypes: HPV-positive (HPVpos), HPV-negative/p53 mutant (HPVneg/p53mut), and HPV-negative/p53 wildtype (HPVneg/p53wt). Overall survival (OS), relative survival (RS), and recurrence-free period (RFP) were depicted using the Kaplan-Meier method and survival curves for relative survival; associations were studied using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of the 413 VSCCs, 75 (18%) were HPVpos, 63 (15%) HPVneg/p53wt, and 275 (66%) HPVneg/p53mut VSCC. Patients with HPVneg/p53mut VSCC had worse OS and RS (HR 3.43, 95%CI 1.80-6.53, and relative excess risk (RER) of 4.02; 95%CI 1.48-10.90, respectively, and worse RFP (HR 3.76, 95%CI 2.02-7.00). HPVpos VSCC patients showed most favorable outcomes. In univariate analysis, the molecular subtype of VSCC was a prognostic marker for OS, RS and RFP (p = 0.003, p = 0.009, p < 0.001, respectively) and remained prognostic for RFP even after adjusting for known risk factors (p = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification of VSCC by p16- and p53-IHC has potential to be used routinely in diagnostic pathology. It results in the identification of three clinically distinct subtypes and may be used to guide treatment and follow-up, and in stratifying patients in future clinical trials.

High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Among Non-Indigenous and Indigenous Populations: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of oral high-risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV) infection and the proportion of hr-HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) among Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations.

DATA SOURCE

Electronic database searches of PubMed, PubMed Central, Embase, MEDLINE, Scope, and Google Scholar were conducted for articles published from January 2000 until November 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies were included with a minimum of 100 cases assessing hr-HPV infection in either population samples or oropharyngeal cancer tumor series. The objective was to conduct meta-analyses to calculate the pooled prevalence of oral hr-HPV infection by adjusting for age group or sex in primary studies, the incidence of OPSCC, and the proportion of hr-HPV-related OPSCC in Indigenous people and non-Indigenous/general populations.

RESULTS

We identified 47 eligible studies from 157 articles for meta-analyses. The pooled prevalence of oral hr-HPV infection was 7.494% (95% CI, 5.699%-9.289%) in a general population, with a higher prevalence among men (10.651%) than women (5.176%). The pooled incidence rate was 13.395 (95% CI, 9.315-17.475) and 7.206 (95% CI, 4.961-9.450) per 100,000 person-years in Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, respectively. The overall pooled proportion of hr-HPV-related OPSCC was 50.812% (95 CI, 41.656%-59.969%). The highest proportion was in North America (60.221%), while the lowest proportion was in the Asia-Pacific (34.246%).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that in the general population, the prevalence of oral hr-HPV infection is lower among females and those in younger age groups. The incidence of OPSCC was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous populations, with the proportion being highest in North America.

HPV-Induced Oropharyngeal Cancer and the Role of the E7 Oncoprotein Detection via Brush Test

Background: High risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancers (OPCs) are characterized by significantly better therapy responses. In order to implement a de-escalated treatment strategy for this tumor entity, it is highly crucial to accurately distinguish HPV-associated OPCs from non-HPV-associated ones. Methods: In this prospective study, 56 patients with histologically confirmed OPC were evaluated. A commercially available sandwich ELISA test system was used for the detection of hr-HPV E7 oncoprotein targeting the genotypes 16, 18 and 45. Results were presented as optical density. Positivity for HPV DNA and p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) was taken as the reference method. Results: E7 positivity was significantly associated with the reference method (p = 0.048). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the E7 oncoptotein was 60.9% (95% CI 38.5 to 80.3%), 66.7% (95% CI 46% to 83.5%), 64.2% (95% CI 49.4 to 77.4%) and 63.01% (95% CI 48.9–75.2%), respectively, for the cutoff provided by the manufacturer. Conclusions: We found a significant association between E7 oncoprotein detection and the currently used combination. We believe that the use of the ELISA based E7 antigen test could be a valuable addition in cases of ambiguous findings and may be used in combination with other techniques to distinguish between HPV-driven and non-HPV-driven OPCs. However, the low sensitivity of the assay coupled with the small sample size in our study may represent a limitation. We recommend that future larger studies elucidate the diagnostic value of the E7 brush test.

Outcome in patients with isolated regional recurrence after primary radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Isolated regional recurrences following head-neck squamous-cell carcinomas (HNSCC) are often accessible for curatively intended salvage treatment. Factors prognostic for outcome were investigated in a large cohort of HNSCC patients.

METHODS

In total, 1811 patients receiving curatively intended radiotherapy from 2007 to 2017 were reviewed and isolated cervical nodal recurrences were identified. Factors associated with survival and second recurrence were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Isolated regional recurrence was seen in 95/1811 (5.2%) patients. Eighty of 95 patients (84%) received salvage surgery. Two-year survival after isolated regional recurrence was 40%. Overall survival (OS) and time to second recurrence were associated with resection status of the salvage surgery and presence of extranodal spread (ENS), while p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous-cell carcinoma (OPSCC) was associated with better OS.

CONCLUSION

Long-term survival after regional recurrence in HNSCC is possible. p16-positive OPSCC, complete salvage surgery, and lack of ENS are associated with better outcome.

Estrogen receptor α as a predictive biomarker for survival in human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection has a good prognosis, the accurate prediction of survival and risk of treatment failure is essential to design deintensification regimens. Here, we investigated estrogen receptor α (ERα) as a prognostic biomarker with therapeutic implications in OPSCC alongside factors associated with HPV infection.

METHODS

We performed immunohistochemistry for ERα and p53 using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues and assessed the HPV status using p16 immunohistochemistry and HPV DNA testing in 113 consecutive patients with OPSCC treated with surgical resection or radiotherapy/chemoradiotherapy.

RESULTS

ERα expression and p53 alteration was observed in 35.4% and 21.2% OPSCCs; 45.6% and 1.3% p16+/HPV+ OPSCCs; and 11.5% and 76.9% p16- OPSCCs, respectively. These data suggest that OPSCC pathogenesis varies with HPV status. Furthermore, ERα expression was associated with improved overall survival (OS) in both HPV+ (p16+/HPV+ OPSCC) and p16+ (p16+ OPSCC irrespective of HPV status) models (p = 0.005 and p = 0.006, respectively) and with improved OS adjusted for stage (p = 0.037, hazard ratio: 0.109, 95% confidence interval 0.013-0.871) in the p16+ model.

CONCLUSIONS

ERα is a potential predictive biomarker for improved survival in both HPV+ and p16+ OPSCC models.

Comparing serum protein levels can aid in differentiating HPV-negative and -positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

The surrogate immunohistochemical marker, p16INK4a, is used in clinical practice to determine the high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) status of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC). With a specificity of 83%, this will misclassify some patients compared with direct HPV testing. Patients who are p16INK4a-positive but HPV DNA-negative, or RNA-negative, may be unsuitable for treatment de-escalation aimed at reducing treatment-related side effects. We aimed to identify cost-effective serum markers to improve decision making for patients at risk of misclassification by p16INK4a alone.

METHODS

Serum proteins from pre-treatment samples of 36 patients with OPSCC were identified and quantified using label-free mass spectrometry-based proteomics. HPV-status was determined using p16INK4a/HPV DNA and E6/E7 mRNA. Serum protein expressions were compared between groups of patients according to HPV status, using the unpaired t-test with a Benjamini-Hochberg correction. ROC curves (AUC) were calculated with SPSS (v25).

RESULTS

Of 174 serum proteins identified, complement component C7 (C7), apolipoprotein F (ApoF) and galectin-3-Binding Protein (LGALS3BP) significantly differed between HPV-positive and -negative tumors (AUC ranging from 0.84-0.87). ApoF levels were more than twice as high in the E6/E7 mRNA HPV-positive group than HPV-negative.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum C7, ApoF and LGALS3BP levels discriminate between HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC. Further studies are needed to validate these host immunity-related proteins as markers for HPV-associated OPSCC.

Age-independent increasing prevalence of Human Papillomavirus-driven oropharyngeal carcinomas in North-East Italy

HPV-driven oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPCs) show geographical variations with increasing temporal trends in several areas. We investigated their frequency and clinical outcomes within a prospective multicenter cohort study in North-East Italy. A tumor was defined as HPV-driven by using at least two different biomarkers, usually HPV-DNA positivity and p16^INK4A overexpression. Different survival outcomes were compared among patients with HPV-driven and non-HPV-driven tumors. Overall, 42/130 (32.3%) patients with newly diagnosed OPC during the period 2000–2018 resulted HPV-driven; HPV16 was involved in 37 cases (88%), HPV33 in 3 cases (7%), HPV58 and HPV18 in 1 case each. Over time, HPV-driven cases raised from 16.7% (6/36) during 2000–2006 to 46.1% (24/52) during 2013–2018 (p < 0.001). The increase in HPV-driven OPCs was more marked in females than males (p = 0.010), and the frequency of HPV-driven cases was similar in the different age groups. In comparison to cases with non-HPV-driven tumors, a significantly (p < 0.001) better progression-free and overall survival were recorded among patients affected by HPV-driven OPC. The prevalence of HPV-driven OPC cases has been significantly increasing during the last two decades also in North-East Italy and was associated with favorable outcome. OPCs driven by non-HPV16 oncogenic types were restricted to patients older than 68-yrs.

The current epidemic of HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer: An 18-year Danish population-based study with 2,169 patients

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to investigate the incidence of high-risk genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV) in tumours of patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) during an 18-year period in Eastern Denmark.

METHODS

In this population-based, consecutive, semi-national registry study, all patients diagnosed with OPSCC from 2000 to 2017 in Eastern Denmark were evaluated at head and neck oncological departments at public university hospitals. Analyses included tumour characteristics (HPV-positive [HPV+] versus HPV-negative [HPV-]), age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs), average annual percentage change (AAPC) of OPSCC, and patient demographics. All HPV+ cases from 2011 to 2017 were genotyped.

RESULTS

In total, 55% of 2169 OPSCC cases were HPV+. HPV16, HPV33, HPV35 or other types were found in 86%, 7.4%, 3.4% and 3.2% of cases, respectively. The AAIR per 100,000 of all OPSCCs was 1.8 in 2000, which increased to 5.1 in 2017 (HPV+: threefold increase, HPV-: twofold increase). The AAPC from 2000 to 2017 increased by 7% (HPV+ increased by 10% and HPV- by 4%). The median age at diagnosis for all OPSCC cases increased during the 18-year study period (HPV+: 58-61 years, p < 0.001; HPV-: 60-65 years, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We report a threefold increase in OPSCC incidence during the 18-year observation period and a significant increase in median age at diagnosis. Over 93% of HPV genotypes in HPV+ OPSCC are included in current HPV vaccines except for HPV35 (4%). HPV vaccination of both sexes is advised to halt this emerging cancer epidemic.

Metastatic disease in head & neck oncology

The head and neck district represents one of the most frequent sites of cancer, and the percentage of metastases is very high in both loco-regional and distant areas. Prognosis refers to several factors: a) stage of disease; b) loco-regional relapses; c) distant metastasis. At diagnosis, distant metastases of head and neck cancers are present in about 10% of cases with an additional 20-30% developing metastases during the course of their disease. Diagnosis of distant metastases is associated with unfavorable prognosis, with a median survival of about 10 months. The aim of the present review is to provide an update on distant metastasis in head and neck oncology. Recent achievements in molecular profiling, interaction between neoplastic tissue and the tumor microenvironment, oligometastatic disease concepts, and the role of immunotherapy have all deeply changed the therapeutic approach and disease control. Firstly, we approach topics such as natural history, epidemiology of distant metastases and relevant pathological and radiological aspects. Focus is then placed on the most relevant clinical aspects; particular attention is reserved to tumours with distant metastasis and positive for EBV and HPV, and the oligometastatic concept. A substantial part of the review is dedicated to different therapeutic approaches. We highlight the role of immunotherapy and the potential effects of innovative technologies. Lastly, we present ethical and clinical perspectives related to frailty in oncological patients and emerging difficulties in sustainable socio-economical governance.

Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in 390 Patients: Analysis of Clinical and Histological Criteria Which Significantly Impact Outcome

This study evaluates the prognostic impact of several factors in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), controlling for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated tumors and stage (American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition). All patients in Southern California Permanente Medical Group diagnosed with OPSCC between 2006 and 2012 tested for p16 immunohistochemistry were included. Review of all pathology materials was combined with central p16 testing. Multivariable analyses were performed. The cohort of 390 patients included 342 p16-positive and 48 p16-negative tumors. For all-comers, on univariate analysis, the following factors, when present, were associated with improved patient survival: p16-positive tumor (n = 324, p < 0.001); crypt versus surface tumor location (n = 312, p = 0.004); nonkeratinizing type (n = 309, p < 0.0001); nonkeratinizing with maturation type (n = 37, p < 0.0001); basaloid pattern (n = 284, p = 0.005); and a broad, pushing border of infiltration (n = 282, p = 0.004). Inferior survival outcomes were observed with: age ≥ 55 years (p < 0.0001); ≥ 10 pack-year smoking history (n = 183, p = 0.003); increasing tumor stage (p < 0.0001); overt radiographic extranodal extension (ORENE) (n = 58, p < 0.0001); low level IV/Vb lymph node involvement (n = 45, p = 0.0002); a jagged pattern of infiltration (n = 76, p = 0.0004); tumor ulceration (n = 76, p = 0.0004); absent lymphocytic infiltrate (p < 0.0001); and concurrent dysplasia (n = 125, p = 0.009). On multivariable analysis, accounting for patient age, smoking history ≥ 10 pack-years, and TNM stage, for patients with p16-positive disease, advanced TNM stage (p = 0.007), the presence of ORENE (p = 0.0002), and low-neck lymphadenopathy (p = 0.0001) were independent negative prognostic factors for disease free survival (DFS). Older age (p < 0.0001), smoking history ≥ 10 pack-years (p = 0.02), advanced TNM stage (p = 0.0002), ORENE (p = 0.004), and low-neck lymphadenopathy (p = 0.002) were independent negative prognostic factors for OS. Among patients with p16-positive OPSCC, older age, smoking history, advanced stage, ORENE, and low-neck lymphadenopathy were significant negative prognostic factors for DFS and/or OS. Further refinement of staging to incorporate additional lymph node findings may be warranted.

High nodal FDG uptake increases risk of distant metastasis in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate if FDG uptake metrics in primary tumor and lymph node metastases in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has a prognostic value beyond UICC8 staging in a multiple endpoint model.

METHODS

Patients with OPSCC treated with primary radiotherapy at Rigshospitalet in the period 2010-2017 were included. All patients had a pretreatment FDG PET/CT scan performed. Four cause-specific Cox regression models were built for the hazard ratios (HR) of recurrence in T-, N-, M-site, and death with no evidence of disease (NED), respectively. The following variables were included: T-, N-stage, p16 status, metabolic tumor volume, and FDG uptake in both primary tumor and lymph nodes. A competing risk analysis was performed and absolute risk estimates were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen method.

RESULTS

Overall, 441 patients were included. Thirty-four patients had T-site recurrence, 31 N-site recurrence, 32 M-site recurrence, and 52 patients had death NED as event. Nodal FDG uptake had a significant impact on N- and M-site recurrence, with HRs of 2.13 (CI 1.20-3.77) and 2.18 (CI 1.16-4.10). The individual prognostication of absolute risk of the four events for any given patient can be assessed in the online tool (https://rasmussen.shinyapps.io/OPSCCmodelFDG_PET/).

CONCLUSION

High nodal FDG uptake increases the risk of N- and M-site recurrence in patients with OPSCC in a competing risk scenario. The reported results are available in an easy applicable online tool and can help identify relevant candidates for future trials testing treatment approaches.