OUP accepted manuscript

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Breeding populations of Marbled Godwits and Willets have high annual survival and strong site fidelity to managed wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region of central Canada supports a diverse community of breeding waterbirds, but many species have declining populations and the demographic mechanisms driving the declines remain unknown. We conducted a 7-year field study during 1995-2001 to investigate the demographic performance of Marbled Godwits (Limosa fedoa) and Willets (Tringa semipalmata) breeding in managed wetlands near Brooks, Alberta. Mark-recapture analyses based on Cormack-Jolly-Seber models revealed that the annual rates of apparent survival for Marbled Godwits ( ϕ ^  = 0.953 ± 0.012SE) and Willets ( ϕ ^  = 0.861 ± 0.015SE) are among the highest rates of survivorship reported for any breeding or nonbreeding population of large-bodied shorebirds. Our estimates of life expectancy for males were comparable to longevity records in godwits (17.3 years ±5.8SE vs. 25-29+ years) and willets (7.7 ± 1.5SE vs. 10+ years). The two species both showed strong breeding site fidelity but differed in rates of mate fidelity. Pairs that reunited and males that switched mates usually nested <300 m from their previous nests, whereas females that switched mates usually moved longer distances >1.1-1.5 km. Returning pairs usually reunited in godwits (85%) but not in willets (28%), possibly because of species differences in adult survival or patterns of migration. Baseline estimates of annual survival for banded-only birds will be useful for evaluating the potential effects of new tracking tags or the environmental changes that have occurred during the past 20 years. Conservation strategies for large-bodied shorebirds should be focused on reduction of exposure to anthropogenic mortality because low rates of natural mortality suggest that losses to collisions at breeding sites or harvest at nonbreeding areas are likely to cause additive mortality.

OUP accepted manuscript

Sex-bias in breeding dispersal is considered the norm in many taxa, and the magnitude and direction of such sex-bias is expected to correlate with the social mating system. We used local return rates in shorebirds as an index of breeding site fidelity, and hence as an estimate of the propensity for breeding dispersal, and tested whether variation in site fidelity and in sex-bias in site fidelity relates to the mating system. Among 111 populations of 49 species, annual return rates to a breeding site varied between 0% and 100%. After controlling for body size (linked to survival) and other confounding factors, monogamous species showed higher breeding site fidelity compared with polyandrous and polygynous species. Overall, there was a strong male bias in return rates, but the sex-bias in return rate was independent of the mating system and did not covary with the extent of sexual size dimorphism. Our results bolster earlier findings that the sex-biased dispersal is weakly linked to the mating system in birds. Instead, our results show that return rates are strongly correlated with the mating system in shorebirds regardless of sex. This suggests that breeding site fidelity may be linked to mate fidelity, which is only important in the monogamous, biparentally incubating species, or that the same drivers influence both the mating system and site fidelity. The strong connection between site fidelity and the mating system suggests that variation in site fidelity may have played a role in the coevolution of the mating system, parental care, and migration strategies.