Estimating individual exposure to predation risk in group-living baboons, Papio anubis

In environments with multiple predators, vulnerabilities associated with the spatial positions of group-living prey are non-uniform and depend on the hunting styles of the predators. Theoretically, coursing predators follow their prey over long distances and attack open areas, exposing individuals at the edge of the group to predation risk more than those at the center (marginal predation). In contrast, ambush predators lurk unnoticed by their prey and appear randomly anywhere in the group; therefore, isolated individuals in the group would be more vulnerable to predators. These positions of vulnerability to predation are expected to be taken by larger-bodied males. Moreover, dominant males presumably occupy the center of the safe group. However, identifying individuals at higher predation risk requires both simultaneous recording of predator location and direct observation of predation events; empirical observations leave ambiguity as to who is at risk. Instead, several theoretical methods (predation risk proxies) have been proposed to assess predation risk: (1) the size of the individual 'unlimited domain of danger' based on Voronoi tessellation, (2) the size of the 'limited domain of danger' based on predator detection distance, (3) peripheral/center position in the group (minimum convex polygon), (4) the number and direction of others in the vicinity (surroundedness), and (5) dyadic distances. We explored the age-sex distribution of individuals in at-risk positions within a wild baboon group facing predation risk from leopards, lions, and hyenas, using Global Positioning System collars. Our analysis of the location data from 26 baboons revealed that adult males were consistently isolated at the edge of the group in all predation risk proxies. Empirical evidence from previous studies indicates that adult male baboons are the most frequently preyed upon, and our results highlights the importance of spatial positioning in this.

'Selfish herders' finish last in mobile animal groups

Predation is a powerful selective pressure and probably a driver of why many animal species live in groups. One key explanation for the evolution of sociality is the 'selfish herd' model, which describes how individuals who stay close to others effectively put neighbours between themselves and a predator to survive incoming attacks. This model is often illustrated with reference to herds of ungulates, schools of fish or flocks of birds. Yet in nature, when a predator strikes, herds are often found fleeing cohesively in the same direction, not jostling for position in the centre of the group. This paper highlights a critical assumption of the original model, namely that prey do not move in response to position of their predator. In this model, I relax this assumption and find that individuals who adopt 'selfish herd' behaviour are often more likely to be captured, because they end up at the back of a fleeing herd. By contrast, individuals that adopt a rule of 'neighbour to neighbour alignment' are able to avoid rearmost positions in a moving herd. Alignment is more successful than selfish herding across much of the parameter space, which may explain why highly aligned fleeing behaviour is commonly observed in nature.

Both prey and predator features predict the individual predation risk and survival of schooling prey

Predation is one of the main evolutionary drivers of social grouping. While it is well appreciated that predation risk is likely not shared equally among individuals within groups, its detailed quantification has remained difficult due to the speed of attacks and the highly dynamic nature of collective prey response. Here, using high-resolution tracking of solitary predators (Northern pike) hunting schooling fish (golden shiners), we not only provide insights into predator decision-making, but show which key spatial and kinematic features of predator and prey predict the risk of individuals to be targeted and to survive attacks. We found that pike tended to stealthily approach the largest groups, and were often already inside the school when launching their attack, making prey in this frontal ‘strike zone’ the most vulnerable to be targeted. From the prey’s perspective, those fish in central locations, but relatively far from, and less aligned with, neighbours, were most likely to be targeted. While the majority of attacks were successful (70%), targeted individuals that did manage to avoid being captured exhibited a higher maximum acceleration response just before the attack and were further away from the pike‘s head. Our results highlight the crucial interplay between predators’ attack strategy and response of prey underlying the predation risk within mobile animal groups.

The measure of spatial position within groups that best predicts predation risk depends on group movement

Both empirical and theoretical studies show that an individual's spatial position within a group can impact the risk of being targeted by predators. Spatial positions can be quantified in numerous ways, but there are no direct comparisons of different spatial measures in predicting the risk of being targeted by real predators. Here, we assess these spatial measures in groups of stationary and moving virtual prey being attacked by three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). In stationary groups, the limited domain of danger best predicted the likelihood of attack. In moving groups, the number of near neighbours was the best predictor but only over a limited range of distances within which other prey were counted. Otherwise, measures of proximity to the group's edge outperformed measures of local crowding in moving groups. There was no evidence that predators preferentially attacked the front or back of the moving groups. Domains of danger without any limit, as originally used in the selfish herd model, were also a poor predictor of risk. These findings reveal that the collective properties of prey can influence how spatial position affects predation risk, via effects on predators' targeting. Selection may therefore act differently on prey positioning behaviour depending on group movement.

Survival chances of a prey swarm: how the cooperative interaction range affects the outcome

A swarm of prey, when attacked by a predator, is known to rely on their cooperative interactions to escape. Understanding such interactions of collectively moving prey and the emerging patterns of their escape trajectories still remain elusive. In this paper, we investigate how the range of cooperative interactions within a prey group affects the survival chances of the group while chased by a predator. As observed in nature, the interaction range of prey may vary due to their vision, age, or even physical structure. Based on a simple theoretical prey-predator model, here, we show that an optimality criterion for survival can be established on the interaction range of prey. Very short-range or long-range interactions are shown to be inefficient for the escape mechanism. Interestingly, for an intermediate range of interaction, the survival probability of the prey group is found to be maximum. Our analysis also shows that the nature of the escape trajectories strongly depends on the range of interactions between prey and corroborates with the naturally observed escape patterns. Moreover, we find that the optimal survival interaction regime varies depending on the prey group size and also on the strength of the predator and the prey interactions.

Factors That Can Affect the Spatial Positioning of Large and Small Individuals in Clusters of Sit-and-Wait Predators

Shadow competition, the interception of prey by sit-and-wait predators closest to the source of prey arrival, is prevalent in clusters of sit-and-wait predators. Peripheral positions in the cluster receive more prey and should thus be more frequently occupied. Models predicting spatial positioning in groups, however, usually ignore variability among group members. Here, I used a simulation model to determine conditions under which small and large sit-and-wait predators, which differ in their attack range, should differ in their spatial positions in the cluster. Small predators occupied peripheral positions more frequently than large predators at the simulation beginning, while the opposite held true as time advanced. Because of the large and small attack range of large and small predators, respectively, small predators mistakenly relocated away from peripheral positions, while large predators did not relocate fast enough from inferior central positions. Any factor that moderated the frequent relocations of small predators or had the opposite effect on large predators assisted small or large predators, respectively, in reaching the more profitable peripheral positions. Furthermore, any factor elevating shadow competition led to longer occupation of the periphery by large predators. This model may explain why sit-and-wait predators are not homogenously distributed in space according to size.

Quantifying the structure and dynamics of fish shoals under predation threat in three dimensions

Detailed quantifications of how predators and their grouping prey interact in three dimensions (3D) remain rare. Here we record the structure and dynamics of fish shoals (Pseudomugil signifer) in 3D both with and without live predators (Philypnodon grandiceps) under controlled laboratory conditions. Shoals adopted two distinct types of shoal structure: “sphere-like” geometries at depth and flat “carpet-like” structures at the water’s surface, with shoals becoming more compact in both horizontal and vertical planes in the presence of a predator. The predators actively stalked and attacked the prey, with attacks being initiated when the shoals were not in their usual configurations. These attacks caused the shoals to break apart, but shoal reformation was rapid and involved individuals adjusting their positions in both horizontal and vertical dimensions. Our analyses revealed that targeted prey were more isolated from other conspecifics, and were closer in terms of distance and direction to the predator compared to non-targeted prey. Moreover, which prey were targeted could largely be identified based on individuals’ positions from a single plane. This highlights that previously proposed 2D theoretical models and their assumptions appear valid when considering how predators target groups in 3D. Our work provides experimental, and not just anecdotal, support for classic theoretical predictions and also lends new insights into predatory–prey interactions in three-dimensional environments.

Interindividual spacing affects the finder’s share in ring-tailed coatis (Nasua nasua)

Social foraging models are often used to explain how group size can affect an individual’s food intake rate and foraging strategies. The proportion of food eaten before the arrival of conspecifics, the finder’s share, is hypothesized to play a major role in shaping group geometry, foraging strategy, and feeding competition. The variables that affect the finder’s share in ring-tailed coatis were tested using a series of food trials. The number of grapes in the food trials had a strong negative effect on the finder’s share and the probability that the finder was joined. The effect of group size on the finder’s share and foraging success was not straightforward and was mediated by sociospatial factors. The finder’s share increased when the time to arrival of the next individual was longer, the group was more spread out, and the finder was in the back of the group. Similarly, the total amount of food eaten at a trial was higher when more grapes were placed, arrival time was longer, and the number of joiners was smaller. Individuals at the front edge of the group found far more food trials, but foraging success was higher at the back of the group where there were fewer conspecifics to join them. This study highlights the importance of social spacing strategies and group geometry on animal foraging tactics and the costs and benefits of sociality.

Computerized stimuli for studying oddity effects

Visually hunting predators must overcome the challenges that prey groups present. One such challenge is the confusion effect where an overburdened visual system means predators are unable to successfully target prey. A strategy to overcome confusion is the targeting of distinct, or odd, individuals (the oddity effect). In live prey experiments, manipulation of group member phenotypes can be challenging and prey may differ on more than the single feature one intends to define as odd. The use of highly controllable computerized stimuli to study predator–prey interactions is increasingly popular in the field of behavioral ecology. However, to our knowledge, the validity of computerized stimuli to study the oddity effect has not been established. Predator choice experiments were conducted using naive stickleback predators to ascertain whether the oddity effect could be demonstrated in the absence of live prey. We found evidence for both the oddity effect and preferential targeting of group edges and low-density regions, as would be predicted if predators targeted prey individuals to minimize confusion. The oddity effect was evident at a low threshold, above which dots were no longer perceived as odd and no longer attacked more often than expected by chance. We conclude that computerized stimuli are an improved, practical method for studying oddity effects while further validating the use of similar methods for studying other aspects of visual predation. In addition to higher control of “prey” appearance, the replacement of live prey animals with digital stimuli is ethically beneficial and reusing code improves experimental efficiency.

The active selfish herd

The selfish herd hypothesis provides an explanation for group aggregation via the selfish avoidance of predators. Conceptually, and as was first proposed, this movement should aim to minimise the danger domain of each individual. Whilst many reasonable proxies have been proposed, none have directly sought to reduce the danger domain. In this work we present a two dimensional stochastic model that actively optimises these domains. The individuals' dynamics are determined by sampling the space surrounding them and moving to achieve the largest possible domain reduction. Two variants of this idea are investigated with sampling occurring either locally or globally. We simulate our models and two of the previously proposed benchmark selfish herd models: k-nearest neighbours (kNN); and local crowded horizon (LCH). The resulting positions are analysed to determine the benefit to the individual and the group's ability to form a compact group. To do this, the group level metric of packing fraction and individual level metric of domain size are observed over time for a range of noise levels. With these measures we show a clear stratification of the four models when noise is not included. kNN never resulted in centrally compacted herd, while the local active selfish model and LCH did so with varying levels of success. The most centralised groups were achieved with our global active selfish herd model. The inclusion of noise improved aggregation in all models. This was particularly so with the local active selfish model with a change to ordering of performance so that it marginally outperformed LCH in aggregation. By more closely following Hamilton's original conception and aligning the individual's goal of a reduced danger domain with the movement it makes increased cohesion is observed, thus confirming his hypothesis, however, these findings are dependent on noise. Moreover, many features originally conjectured by Hamilton are also observed in our simulations.

Injury-mediated decrease in locomotor performance increases predation risk in schooling fish

The costs and benefits of group living often depend on the spatial position of individuals within groups and the ability of individuals to occupy preferred positions. For example, models of predation events for moving prey groups predict higher mortality risk for individuals at the periphery and front of groups. We investigated these predictions in sardine (Sardinella aurita) schools under attack from group hunting sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the open ocean. Sailfish approached sardine schools about equally often from the front and rear, but prior to attack there was a chasing period in which sardines attempted to swim away from the predator. Consequently, all sailfish attacks were directed at the rear and peripheral positions of the school, resulting in higher predation risk for individuals at these positions. During attacks, sailfish slash at sardines with their bill causing prey injury including scale removal and tissue damage. Sardines injured in previous attacks were more often found in the rear half of the school than in the front half. Moreover, injured fish had lower tail-beat frequencies and lagged behind uninjured fish. Injuries inflicted by sailfish bills may, therefore, hinder prey swimming speed and drive spatial sorting in prey schools through passive self-assortment. We found only partial support for the theoretical predictions from current predator-prey models, highlighting the importance of incorporating more realistic predator-prey dynamics into these models.This article is part of the themed issue 'Physiological determinants of social behaviour in animals'.

Marginal predation: do encounter or confusion effects explain the targeting of prey group edges?

Marginal predation, also known as the edge effect, occurs when aggregations of prey are preferentially targeted on their periphery by predators and has long been established in many taxa. Two main processes have been used to explain this phenomenon, the confusion effect and the encounter rate between predators and prey group edges. However, it is unknown at what size a prey group needs to be before marginal predation is detectable and to what extent each mechanism drives the effect. We conducted 2 experiments using groups of virtual prey being preyed upon by 3-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) to address these questions. In Experiment 1, we show that group sizes do not need to be large for marginal predation to occur, with this being detectable in groups of 16 or more. In Experiment 2, we find that encounter rate is a more likely explanation for marginal predation than the confusion effect in this system. We find that while confusion does affect predatory behaviors (whether or not predators make an attack), it does not affect marginal predation. Our results suggest that marginal predation is a more common phenomenon than originally thought as it also applies to relatively small groups. Similarly, as marginal predation does not need the confusion effect to occur, it may occur in a wider range of predator–prey species pairings, for example those where the predators search for prey using nonvisual sensory modalities.

Local interactions and global properties of wild, free-ranging stickleback shoals

Collective motion describes the global properties of moving groups of animals and the self-organized, coordinated patterns of individual behaviour that produce them. We examined the group-level patterns and local interactions between individuals in wild, free-ranging shoals of three-spine sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus. Our data reveal that the highest frequencies of near-neighbour encounters occur at between one and two body lengths from a focal fish, with the peak frequency alongside a focal individual. Fish also show the highest alignment with these laterally placed individuals, and generally with animals in front of themselves. Furthermore, fish are more closely matched in size, speed and orientation to their near neighbours than to more distant neighbours, indicating local organization within groups. Among the group-level properties reported here, we find that polarization is strongly influenced by group speed, but also the variation in speed among individuals and the nearest neighbour distances of group members. While we find no relationship between group order and group size, we do find that larger groups tend to have lower nearest neighbour distances, which in turn may be important in maintaining group order.

Initiation and spread of escape waves within animal groups

The exceptional reactivity of animal collectives to predatory attacks is thought to be owing to rapid, but local, transfer of information between group members. These groups turn together in unison and produce escape waves. However, it is not clear how escape waves are created from local interactions, nor is it understood how these patterns are shaped by natural selection. By startling schools of fish with a simulated attack in an experimental arena, we demonstrate that changes in the direction and speed by a small percentage of individuals that detect the danger initiate an escape wave. This escape wave consists of a densely packed band of individuals that causes other school members to change direction. In the majority of cases, this wave passes through the entire group. We use a simulation model to demonstrate that this mechanism can, through local interactions alone, produce arbitrarily large escape waves. In the model, when we set the group density to that seen in real fish schools, we find that the risk to the members at the edge of the group is roughly equal to the risk of those within the group. Our experiments and modelling results provide a plausible explanation for how escape waves propagate in nature without centralized control.

Feeding behavior and aggression in wild Siberut macaques (Macaca siberu) living under low predation risk

Investigating which factors influence feeding competition is crucial for our understanding of the diversity of social relationships. Socio-ecological models differ in their predictions whether predation risk directly influences feeding competition and which factors exactly predict contest competition. We investigated feeding competition in Siberut macaques (Macaca siberu), a species endemic to Siberut Island (West Sumatra, Indonesia). Siberut macaques experience low predation risk, as major predators (felids, raptors) are absent. They are therefore appropriate subjects to test the prediction that low predation risk reduces feeding competition. To estimate contest potential, we quantified size, spatial distribution and density of food plants, and the availability of alternative resources. We recorded behavior in food patches using a modified focal tree method. Food patches, sorted by decreasing average feeding group size, included large trees (40% of focal plant observations), lianas/strangler (16%), medium trees (9%), small (palm) trees (20%), and rattan (15%). Most food patches were clumped but occurred at low densities relative to the area of average group spread. Thus, availability of alternative food patches was low. Although food patch characteristics indicate high contest potential, the observed aggression rate (0.13 bouts between adults/h) was low relative to other primates. Average feeding group size was small relative to total group size, and feeding group size matched crown volume. Perceived predation risk was low, based on spatial and feeding behavior of juveniles. Together, these results suggest that predation risk may influence feeding competition. Social and temporal factors (patch feeding time), but not ecological factors (fruit abundance in patch and forest, alternative resources) predicted aggression frequency in food patches. Overall, comparative data are still relatively scarce, and researchers should collect more data on group spread, sub-grouping, perceived predation risk, and aggression in food patches before we can draw final conclusions about the role of predation risk for feeding competition.

Reconsidering the safety in numbers effect for vulnerable road users: an application of agent-based modeling

OBJECTIVE

Increasing levels of active transport provide benefits in relation to chronic disease and emissions reduction but may be associated with an increased risk of road trauma. The safety in numbers (SiN) effect is often regarded as a solution to this issue; however, the mechanisms underlying its influence are largely unknown. We aimed to (1) replicate the SiN effect within a simple, simulated environment and (2) vary bicycle density within the environment to better understand the circumstances under which SiN applies.

METHODS

Using an agent-based modeling approach, we constructed a virtual transport system that increased the number of bicycles from 9% to 35% of total vehicles over a period of 1,000 time units while holding the number of cars in the system constant. We then repeated this experiment under conditions of progressively decreasing bicycle density.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that the SiN effect can be reproduced in a virtual environment, closely approximating the exponential relationships between cycling numbers and the relative risk of collision as shown in observational studies. The association, however, was highly contingent upon bicycle density. The relative risk of collisions between cars and bicycles with increasing bicycle numbers showed an association that is progressively linear at decreasing levels of density.

CONCLUSIONS

Agent-based modeling may provide a useful tool for understanding the mechanisms underpinning the relationships previously observed between volume and risk under the assumptions of SiN. The SiN effect may apply only under circumstances in which bicycle density also increases over time. Additional mechanisms underpinning the SiN effect, independent of behavioral adjustment by drivers, are explored.

Movements, home-range size and habitat selection of mallards during autumn migration

The mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is a focal species in game management, epidemiology and ornithology, but comparably little research has focused on the ecology of the migration seasons. We studied habitat use, time-budgets, home-range sizes, habitat selection, and movements based on spatial data collected with GPS devices attached to wild mallards trapped at an autumn stopover site in the Northwest European flyway. Sixteen individuals (13 males, 3 females) were followed for 15-38 days in October to December 2010. Forty-nine percent (SD = 8.4%) of the ducks' total time, and 85% of the day-time (SD = 28.3%), was spent at sheltered reefs and bays on the coast. Two ducks used ponds, rather than coast, as day-roosts instead. Mallards spent most of the night (76% of total time, SD = 15.8%) on wetlands, mainly on alvar steppe, or in various flooded areas (e.g. coastal meadows). Crop fields with maize were also selectively utilized. Movements between roosting and foraging areas mainly took place at dawn and dusk, and the home-ranges observed in our study are among the largest ever documented for mallards (mean  = 6,859 ha; SD = 5,872 ha). This study provides insights into relatively unknown aspects of mallard ecology. The fact that autumn-staging migratory mallards have a well-developed diel activity pattern tightly linked to the use of specific habitats has implications for wetland management, hunting and conservation, as well as for the epidemiology of diseases shared between wildlife and domestic animals.

Development, maternal effects, and behavioral plasticity

Behavioral, hormonal, and genetic processes interact reciprocally, and differentially affect behavior depending on ecological and social contexts. When individual differences are favored either between or within environments, developmental plasticity would be expected. Parental effects provide a rich source for phenotypic plasticity, including anatomical, physiological, and behavioral traits, because parents respond to dynamic cues in their environment and can, in turn, influence offspring accordingly. Because these inter-generational changes are plastic, parents can respond rapidly to changing environments and produce offspring whose phenotypes are well suited for current conditions more quickly than occurs with changes based on evolution through natural selection. I review studies on developmental plasticity and resulting phenotypes in Belding's ground squirrels (Urocitellus beldingi), an ideal species, given the competing demands to avoid predation while gaining sufficient weight to survive an upcoming hibernation, and the need for young to learn their survival behaviors. I will show how local environments and perceived risk of predation influence not only foraging, vigilance, and anti-predator behaviors, but also adrenal functioning, which may be especially important for obligate hibernators that face competing demands on the storage and mobilization of glucose. Mammalian behavioral development is sensitive to the social and physical environments provided by mothers during gestation and lactation. Therefore, maternal effects on offspring's phenotypes, both positive and negative, can be particularly strong.

Predator confusion is sufficient to evolve swarming behaviour

Swarming behaviours in animals have been extensively studied owing to their implications for the evolution of cooperation, social cognition and predator-prey dynamics. An important goal of these studies is discerning which evolutionary pressures favour the formation of swarms. One hypothesis is that swarms arise because the presence of multiple moving prey in swarms causes confusion for attacking predators, but it remains unclear how important this selective force is. Using an evolutionary model of a predator-prey system, we show that predator confusion provides a sufficient selection pressure to evolve swarming behaviour in prey. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the evolutionary effect of predator confusion on prey could in turn exert pressure on the structure of the predator's visual field, favouring the frontally oriented, high-resolution visual systems commonly observed in predators that feed on swarming animals. Finally, we provide evidence that when prey evolve swarming in response to predator confusion, there is a change in the shape of the functional response curve describing the predator's consumption rate as prey density increases. Thus, we show that a relatively simple perceptual constraint--predator confusion--could have pervasive evolutionary effects on prey behaviour, predator sensory mechanisms and the ecological interactions between predators and prey.