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Warren JL, Wang Q, Ciarleglio MM. A scaled kernel density estimation prior for dynamic borrowing of historical information with application to clinical trial design. Stat Med 2024; 43:1615-1626. [PMID: 38345148 DOI: 10.1002/sim.10032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2023] [Revised: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/16/2024]
Abstract
Incorporating historical data into a current data analysis can improve estimation of parameters shared across both datasets and increase the power to detect associations of interest while reducing the time and cost of new data collection. Several methods for prior distribution elicitation have been introduced to allow for the data-driven borrowing of historical information within a Bayesian analysis of the current data. We propose scaled Gaussian kernel density estimation (SGKDE) prior distributions as potentially more flexible alternatives. SGKDE priors directly use posterior samples collected from a historical data analysis to approximate probability density functions, whose variances depend on the degree of similarity between the historical and current datasets, which are used as prior distributions in the current data analysis. We compare the performances of the SGKDE priors with some existing approaches using a simulation study. Data from a recently completed phase III clinical trial of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus are used to further explore the properties of SGKDE priors when designing a new clinical trial while incorporating historical data. Overall, both studies suggest that the new approach results in improved parameter estimation and power in the current data analysis compared to the considered existing methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua L Warren
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Qi Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Maria M Ciarleglio
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
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Wei Y, Feng Y, Danesh Yazdi M, Yin K, Castro E, Shtein A, Qiu X, Peralta AA, Coull BA, Dominici F, Schwartz JD. Exposure-response associations between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter and risks of hospital admission for major cardiovascular diseases: population based cohort study. BMJ 2024; 384:e076939. [PMID: 38383041 PMCID: PMC10879983 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-076939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate exposure-response associations between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and risks of the first hospital admission for major cardiovascular disease (CVD) subtypes. DESIGN Population based cohort study. SETTING Contiguous US. PARTICIPANTS 59 761 494 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years during 2000-16. Calibrated PM2.5 predictions were linked to each participant's residential zip code as proxy exposure measurements. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Risk of the first hospital admission during follow-up for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, valvular heart disease, thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms, or a composite of these CVD subtypes. A causal framework robust against confounding bias and bias arising from errors in exposure measurements was developed for exposure-response estimations. RESULTS Three year average PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased relative risks of first hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, and thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms. For composite CVD, the exposure-response curve showed monotonically increased risk associated with PM2.5: compared with exposures ≤5 µg/m3 (the World Health Organization air quality guideline), the relative risk at exposures between 9 and 10 µg/m3, which encompassed the US national average of 9.7 µg/m3 during the study period, was 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.28 to 1.30). On an absolute scale, the risk of hospital admission for composite CVD increased from 2.59% with exposures ≤5 µg/m3 to 3.35% at exposures between 9 and 10 µg/m3. The effects persisted for at least three years after exposure to PM2.5. Age, education, accessibility to healthcare, and neighborhood deprivation level appeared to modify susceptibility to PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS The findings of this study suggest that no safe threshold exists for the chronic effect of PM2.5 on overall cardiovascular health. Substantial benefits could be attained through adherence to the WHO air quality guideline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaguang Wei
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Yijing Feng
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
- Program in Public Health, Department of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine at Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | - Kanhua Yin
- Department of Surgery, University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO, USA
| | - Edgar Castro
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Alexandra Shtein
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Xinye Qiu
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Adjani A Peralta
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Brent A Coull
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel D Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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LaPointe S, Lee JC, Nagy ZP, Shapiro DB, Chang HH, Wang Y, Russell AG, Hipp HS, Gaskins AJ. Ambient traffic related air pollution in relation to ovarian reserve and oocyte quality in young, healthy oocyte donors. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 183:108382. [PMID: 38103346 PMCID: PMC10871039 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Studies in mice and older, subfertile women have found that air pollution exposure may compromise female reproduction. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of air pollution on ovarian reserve and outcomes of ovarian stimulation among young, healthy females. We included 472 oocyte donors who underwent 781 ovarian stimulation cycles at a fertility clinic in Atlanta, Georgia, USA (2008-2019). Antral follicle count (AFC) was assessed with transvaginal ultrasonography and total and mature oocyte count was assessed following oocyte retrieval. Ovarian sensitivity index (OSI) was calculated as the total number of oocytes divided by total gonadotrophin dose × 1000. Daily ambient exposure to nitric oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 (PM2.5) was estimated using a fused regional + line-source model for near-surface releases at a 250 m resolution based on residential address. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the associations of an interquartile range (IQR) increase in pollutant exposure with outcomes adjusted for donor characteristics, census-level poverty, and meteorological factors. The median (IQR) age among oocyte donors was 25.0 (5.0) years, and 31% of the donors were racial/ethnic minorities. The median (IQR) exposure to NOx, CO, and PM2.5 in the 3 months prior to stimulation was 37.7 (32.0) ppb, 612 (317) ppb, and 9.8 (2.9) µg/m3, respectively. Ambient air pollution exposure in the 3 months before AFC was not associated with AFC. An IQR increase in PM2.5 in the 3 months before AFC and during stimulation was associated with -7.5% (95% CI -14.1, -0.4) and -6.4% (95% CI -11.0, -1.6) fewer mature oocytes, and a -1.9 (95% CI -3.2, -0.5) and -1.0 (95% CI -1.8, -0.2) lower OSI, respectively. Our results suggest that lowering the current 24-h PM2.5 standard in the US to 25 µg/m3 may still not adequately protect against the reprotoxic effects of short-term PM2.5 exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah LaPointe
- Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Heath, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Jaqueline C Lee
- Division of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Zsolt P Nagy
- Reproductive Biology Associates, Sandy Springs, GA, United States
| | - Daniel B Shapiro
- Reproductive Biology Associates, Sandy Springs, GA, United States
| | - Howard H Chang
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Yifeng Wang
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Armistead G Russell
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Heather S Hipp
- Division of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Audrey J Gaskins
- Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Heath, Atlanta, GA, United States.
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