Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study

Effect of indoor residual spraying on sandfly abundance and incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in India, 2016-22: an interrupted time-series analysis and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Efforts to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis in India mainly consist of early detection and treatment of cases and indoor residual spraying with insecticides to kill the phlebotomine sandfly Phlebotomus argentipes that transmits the causative Leishmania protozoa. In this modelling study, we aimed to estimate the effect of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on vector abundance and transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in India.

METHODS

In this time-series analysis and modelling study, we assessed the effect of IRS on vector abundance by using indoor vector-abundance data (from 2016 to 2022) and IRS quality-assurance data (from 2017-20) from 50 villages in eight endemic blocks in India where IRS was implemented programmatically. To assess a potential dose-response relation between insecticide concentrations and changes in sandfly abundance, we examined the correlation between site-level insecticide concentrations and the site-level data for monthly sandfly abundances. We used mathematical modelling to link vector data to visceral leishmaniasis case numbers from the national Kala-Azar Management Information System registry (2013-21), and to predict the effect of IRS on numbers of averted cases and deaths.

FINDINGS

IRS was estimated to reduce indoor sandfly abundance by 27% (95% CI 20-34). Concentrations of insecticides on walls were significantly-but weakly-associated with the degree of reduction in vector abundance, with a reduction of -0·0023 (95% CI -0·0040 to -0·0007) sandflies per mg/m2 insecticide (p=0·0057). Reported case numbers of visceral leishmaniasis were well explained by trends in vector abundance. Village-wide IRS in response to a newly detected case of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted to reduce disease incidence by 6-40% depending on the presumed reduction in vector abundance modelled.

INTERPRETATION

Indoor residual spraying has substantially reduced sandfly abundance in India, which has contributed to reductions in visceral leishmaniasis and related deaths. To prevent the re-emergence of visceral leishmaniasis as a public health problem, surveillance of transmission and sandfly abundance is warranted.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATION

For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A general framework to support cost-efficient fecal egg count methods and study design choices for large-scale STH deworming programs-monitoring of therapeutic drug efficacy as a case study

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programs currently lack evidence-based recommendations for cost-efficient survey designs for monitoring and evaluation. Here, we present a framework to provide evidence-based recommendations, using a case study of therapeutic drug efficacy monitoring based on the examination of helminth eggs in stool.

METHODS

We performed an in-depth analysis of the operational costs to process one stool sample for three diagnostic methods (Kato-Katz, Mini-FLOTAC and FECPAKG2). Next, we performed simulations to determine the probability of detecting a truly reduced therapeutic efficacy for different scenarios of STH species (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms), pre-treatment infection levels, survey design (screen and select (SS); screen, select and retest (SSR) and no selection (NS)) and number of subjects enrolled (100-5,000). Finally, we integrated the outcome of the cost assessment into the simulation study to estimate the total survey costs and determined the most cost-efficient survey design.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Kato-Katz allowed for both the highest sample throughput and the lowest cost per test, while FECPAKG2 required both the most laboratory time and was the most expensive. Counting of eggs accounted for 23% (FECPAKG2) or ≥80% (Kato-Katz and Mini-FLOTAC) of the total time-to-result. NS survey designs in combination with Kato-Katz were the most cost-efficient to assess therapeutic drug efficacy in all scenarios of STH species and endemicity.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We confirm that Kato-Katz is the fecal egg counting method of choice for monitoring therapeutic drug efficacy, but that the survey design currently recommended by WHO (SS) should be updated. Our generic framework, which captures laboratory time and material costs, can be used to further support cost-efficient choices for other important surveys informing STH control programs. In addition, it can be used to explore the value of alternative diagnostic techniques, like automated egg counting, which may further reduce operational costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03465488.

Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: Monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study

Recently, the World Health Organization established the Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests (the so-called target product profiles (TPPs)). We developed two generic frameworks: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect diseased persons) and specificity (probability to correctly detect persons free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples sizes and the decision rules based on a multi-category lot quality assurance sampling (MC-LQAS) approach that accounts for imperfect tests. We applied both frameworks for monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs. Our study indicates that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. The MC-LQAS framework highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in a smaller sample size for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance may be compensated by lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed the required minimal and ideal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for diagnostic tests applied in monitoring and evaluating of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

The World Health Organization established an advisory group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests. To support this advisory group, we developed two generic frameworks, which we applied to soil-transmitted helminthiases: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect a diseased person) and specificity (probability to correctly detect a person free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples size and decision rules during surveys. We showed that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. We also highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in smaller sample sizes for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance can be compensated by the lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed to the advisory group the required performance characteristics of diagnostic tests for soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?

As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims—for example, minimizing morbidity and minimizing costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move toward 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.

COVID-19 and hepatitis B infection

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has emerged as a major burden worldwide, resulting in serious public health challenges. HBV infection is another widely spread virus that chronically affects about 257 million people. The management of patients with HBV infection has gained attention in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients with COVID-19 have varying levels of liver involvements, resulting from direct viral effects on the liver as well as hepatotoxic drugs. This was demonstrated by elevated levels of liver enzymes, particularly evident in those patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, scarce information is available on the management of COVID-19 patients having an underlying chronic liver disease, including HBV infection. Studies have shown reactivation of HBV infection following treatment with tocilizumab and corticosteroids, emphasizing the need for caution when using these agents to treat COVID-19 patients with HBV infection. HBV screening and prophylaxis should be considered in patients with elevated transaminase levels and also in high prevalence populations. In patients with advanced liver disease, attention must be given to minimize the risk of liver decompensation. Nevertheless, further investigation is needed to enable an evidence-based approach for the care of these patients.