Editorial commentary: ambulatory management of chest-indrawing pneumonia

Community case management of lower chest indrawing pneumonia with oral amoxicillin in children in Kenya

AIM

To determine the accuracy and effectiveness of community health workers (CHWs) when compared to trained nurses for management of pneumonia in Kenyan children.

METHODS

In Homabay County in western Kenya, children 2-59 months of age with lower chest indrawing pneumonia were identified, classified and treated by CHWs with oral amoxicillin (90 mg/kg per day) for five days at home. Trained nurses visited the child within 24 hours to verify diagnosis; and on day 4 and 14 to assess treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

CHWs identified 1906 children with lower chest indrawing pneumonia. There was an 88.7% concordance in classification and treatment for lower chest indrawing pneumonia by CHWs compared to nurses. Children with moderate malnutrition (OR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.22-2.30), comorbidities such as diarrhoea or malaria (OR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.32-1.81) or an additional day of delay in care seeking (OR 1.06; 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) were more likely to have an incorrect classification of lower chest indrawing by the CHW. Comorbidity (OR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.12-2.48) and fast breathing (OR 4.66; 95% CI: 1.26-17.27) were significantly associated with treatment failure on day 14.

CONCLUSION

CHWs can correctly manage lower chest indrawing pneumonia even in high-mortality settings, such as western Kenya, in sub-Saharan Africa.

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya

BACKGROUND

Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discriminate inpatient mortality risk in non-severe pneumonia and explore whether these factors offer any added benefit over the current criteria used to identify children with pneumonia requiring inpatient care.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2-59 months admitted with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia at 14 public hospitals in Kenya between February 2014 and February 2016. Using machine learning techniques, we analysed whether clinical characteristics and common comorbidities increased the risk of inpatient mortality for non-severe pneumonia. The topmost risk factors were subjected to decision curve analysis to explore if using them as admission criteria had any net benefit above the current criteria.

RESULTS

Out of 16,162 children admitted with pneumonia during the study period, 10,687 were eligible for subsequent analysis. Inpatient mortality within this non-severe group was 252/10,687 (2.36%). Models demonstrated moderately good performance; the partial least squares discriminant analysis model had higher sensitivity for predicting mortality in comparison to logistic regression. Elevated respiratory rate (≥70 bpm), age 2-11 months and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) < -3SD were highly discriminative of mortality. These factors ranked consistently across the different models. For a risk threshold probability of 7-14%, there is a net benefit to admitting the patient sub-populations with these features as additional criteria alongside those currently used to classify severe pneumonia. Of the population studied, 70.54% met at least one of these criteria. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were not significantly affected by variations in pneumonia severity classification criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with non-severe pneumonia aged 2-11 months or with respiratory rate ≥ 70 bpm or very low WAZ experience risks of inpatient mortality comparable to severe pneumonia. Inpatient care is warranted in these high-risk groups of children.