Achievement of 2009 and 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes mineral and bone targets and survival in a French cohort of chronic kidney disease Stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis patients

External validation of a 2-year all-cause mortality prediction tool developed using machine learning in patients with stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased mortality. Individual mortality prediction could be of interest to improve individual clinical outcomes. Using an independent regional dataset, the aim of the present study was to externally validate the recently published 2-year all-cause mortality prediction tool developed using machine learning.

METHODS

A validation dataset of stage 4 or 5 CKD outpatients was used. External validation performance of the prediction tool at the optimal cutoff-point was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A survival analysis was then performed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Data of 527 outpatients with stage 4 or 5 CKD were analyzed. During the 2 years of follow-up, 91 patients died and 436 survived. Compared to the learning dataset, patients in the validation dataset were significantly younger, and the ratio of deceased patients in the validation dataset was significantly lower. The performance of the prediction tool at the optimal cutoff-point was: AUC-ROC = 0.72, accuracy = 63.6%, sensitivity = 72.5%, and specificity = 61.7%. The survival curves of the predicted survived and the predicted deceased groups were significantly different (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The 2-year all-cause mortality prediction tool for patients with stage 4 or 5 CKD showed satisfactory discriminatory capacity with emphasis on sensitivity. The proposed prediction tool appears to be of clinical interest for further development.

Global burden and influencing factors of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults aged 20-59 years, 1990-2019

Population structure and lifestyles may have contributed to the epidemiological status of Chronic Kidney Disease due to Type 2 Diabetes (CKD-T2D). This study is a secondary data analysis. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, we describe the changes in CKD-T2D burden and its influencing factors in the population aged 20-59 years from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the incidence, death, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate of CKD-T2D showed an upward trend and increased with age, and the burden in males was higher than that in females. Population growth and aging were important driving factors for the increase of CKD-T2D DALY burden, while high systolic blood pressure and high body-mass index were the primary attributable risk factors. High body-mass index exhibited higher contributions to high Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) countries, whereas low SDI countries were more impacted by high systolic blood pressure. The population attributable fraction of CKD-T2D DALY caused by high body-mass index was positively correlated with SDI, while high temperature and lead exposure were negatively correlated. Therefore, strengthening disease screening for people aged 20-59 years and formulating early intervention measures based on the level of socioeconomic development may effectively alleviate the burden of CKD-T2D.

Mineral and bone disorder and longterm survival in a chronic kidney disease grade 3b-4cohort

Mineral and bone disorder biomarkers 'normal ranges' are controversial. The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between serum calcium (Ca), phosphate (P), intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH), and 25(OH) vitamin D levels and mortality risk, in a chronic kidney disease (CKD) grade (G) 3b-4 cohort. The Uruguayan National Renal Healthcare Program (NRHP-UY) CKD patients' cohort, included between 1 October 2004 and 1 March 2020 and followed-up until 1 March 2021, was analyzed with the Ethics Committee approval. A total of 6473 patients were analyzed: 56% men, median age 73 (65-79) years, 55% on CKD G3b. At the end of the follow-up, 2459 (37.7%) patients had died (6.4/100 patient-year). There were iPTH data on 2013 patients (younger, with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and lesser comorbidities). By bivariate Cox analysis the lowest death risk was observed with mean Ca between 9.01 and 10.25 mg/dl, P between 2.76 and 4.0 mg/dl, iPTH ≤ 105 pg/ml, and 25(OH) vitamin D >10 ng/ml. The multivariate Cox regression mortality risk adjusted to age, sex, CKD etiology, diabetes, smoking, cardiovascular comorbidity, blood pressure, proteinuria, eGFR, renin-angiotensin system blockers and vitamin D treatments, serum Ca, P, iPTH, and 25(OH) vitamin D (n = 964) showed that a higher mortality risk was associated with p > 4.00 mg/dl (HR 1.668, CI 95%: 1.201-2.317), iPTH >105 pg/ml (HR 1.386, CI 95%: 1.012-1.989), and 25(OH) vitamin D ≤ 10 ng/ml (HR 1.958, CI 95%: 1.238-3.098) and a lower mortality risk with 1,25(OH)2 vitamin D treatment (HR 0.639, CI 95%: 0.451-0.906). These data may contribute to the precise G3b-4 CKD-MBD biomarkers levels definition.

Disorders in bone-mineral parameters and the risk of death in persons with chronic kidney disease stages 4 and 5: the PECERA study

BACKGROUND

Abnormalities of bone mineral parameters are associated with increased mortality in patients on dialysis, but their effects and the optimal range of these biomarkers are less well characterized in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

PECERA (Collaborative Study Project in Patients with Advanced CKD) is a 3-year, prospective multicenter, open-cohort study of 966 adult patients with non-dialyzed CKD stages 4-5 enrolled from 12 centers in Spain. Associations between levels of serum calcium (Ca) (corrected for albumin), phosphate (P), and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) with all-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cardiovascular mortality (secondary outcome) were examined using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models and penalized splines analysis adjusted by demographics and comorbidities, treatments and biochemical values collected every 6 months for 3 years.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 29 months (IQR: 13-36 months) there were 181 deaths (19%). The association of calcium with all-cause mortality was J-shaped, with an increased risk for all-cause mortality at levels > 10.5 mg/dL. For phosphate and iPTH levels, the association was U-shaped. The serum values associated with the minimum risk of mortality were 3.8 mg/dL for phosphate and 70 pg/mL for iPTH, being the lowest risk ranges between 2.8 and 5.0 mg/dL, and between 38 and 112 pg/mL for phosphate and iPTH, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence on the non-linear association of serum calcium, phosphate and iPTH levels with mortality in stage 4 and 5 CKD patients, and suggests potential survival benefits for controlling bone mineral parameters in this population, as previously reported for dialysis patients.

Nighttime blood pressure decline as a predictor of renal injury in patients with hypertension: a population-based cohort study

We explored whether the nighttime blood pressure (BP) decline predicts renal function decline in a population-based cohort with primary hypertension. We measured the baseline ambulatory BP and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in a cohort of 1,042 primary hypertensive patients. We repeated the GFR measurements and calculated the rate of GFR decline after a median follow-up of 5.8 years. The estimated GFR (eGFR) declined by -0.23 to -0.20 mL/min per year as the nighttime systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and mean BP decline rates increased by 1% (P < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model, the nighttime SBP, DBP, and mean BP were all related to a steeper rate of eGFR decline by -0.25 to -0.22 mL/min per 1% increase. The adjusted multivariable results indicated that the odds of an eGFR decline were reduced by 46% when the nighttime SBP decline rate increased by 1% (OR= 0.54, 95% CI: 0.46-0.62). The restricted cubic spline model indicated a non-linear dose-response relationship with the nighttime SBP, DBP, and mean BP. Nighttime BP may be an important biomarker of renal function injury in hypertensive patients.

Management of Hyperphosphatemia in End-Stage Renal Disease: A New Paradigm

Bone and mineral metabolism becomes dysregulated with progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and increasing levels of parathyroid hormone serve as an adaptive response to maintain normal phosphorus and calcium levels. In end-stage renal disease, this response becomes maladaptive and high levels of phosphorus may occur. We summarize strategies to control hyperphosphatemia based on a systematic literature review of clinical trial and real-world observational data on phosphorus control in hemodialysis patients with CKD-mineral bone disorder (CKD-MBD). These studies suggest that current management options (diet and lifestyle changes; regular dialysis treatment; and use of phosphate binders, vitamin D, calcimimetics) have their own benefits and limitations with variable clinical outcomes. A more integrated approach to phosphorus control in dialysis patients may be necessary, incorporating measurement of multiple biomarkers of CKD-MBD pathophysiology (calcium, phosphorus, and parathyroid hormone) and correlation between diet adjustments and CKD-MBD drugs, which may facilitate improved patient management.