Development and Validation of Risk Matrices for Crohn's Disease Outcomes in Patients Who Underwent Early Therapeutic Interventions

How many biomarker measurements are needed to predict prognosis in Crohn's disease patients under infliximab?-A prospective study

BACKGROUND

Timely stratification of Crohn's disease (CD) is essential for patients' management. The use of noninvasive accurate biomarkers is key to monitor treatment and to pursue mucosal healing, the ultimate treatment endpoint in CD.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the performance of readily available biomarkers and develop risk matrices to predict CD progression.

METHODS

Data from 289 CD patients receiving infliximab (IFX) maintenance therapy for 2 years was collected; those patients were included in DIRECT, a prospective multicenter observational study. Disease progression was evaluated using two composite outcomes incorporating clinical and drug-related factors, the first including IFX dose and/or frequency adjustments. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to calculate the odds ratios (OR) and to develop risk matrices.

RESULTS

The isolated presence of anemia at least once during follow-up was a significant predictor of disease progression (OR 2.436 and 3.396 [p ≤ 0.001] for composite outcomes 1 and 2, respectively) regardless of confounding factors. Isolated highly elevated C-reactive protein (CRP; >10.0 mg/L) and fecal calprotectin (FC; >500.0 μg/g) in at least one visit were also significant predictors, while milder elevations (3.1-10.0 mg/L and 250.1-500.0 μg/g) were only relevant when detected in at least two visits (consecutive or not). The combination of biomarkers in risk matrices had good ability to predict progression; patients simultaneously presenting anemia, highly elevated CRP and FC at least once had 42%-63% probability of achieving the composite outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The combined evaluation of hemoglobin, CRP, and FC in at least one time point and their incorporation into risk matrices seems to be the optimal strategy for CD management, as data from additional visits did not meaningfully influence the predictions and may delay decision-making.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard.

OBJECTIVE

To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease.

DESIGN

This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios.

RESULTS

In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability.

FUTURE WORK

We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Age at Diagnosis Is Determinant for the Outcome of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Is It a Myth?

INTRODUCTION

Patients with elderly-onset inflammatory bowel disease were previously associated with a less aggressive course of the disease. However, there are conflicting data that need further validation. We aimed to determine the association between age at diagnosis and the development of progressive disease in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC).

METHODS

This cohort study included patients with CD and UC followed in 6 secondary and tertiary care centers in mainland Portugal. Patients were divided into a derivation (80%) cohort and a validation (20%) cohort. The primary outcome was progressive disease. Logistic regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic curves, and the areas under the curve (AUC) were performed. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.

RESULTS

The derivation cohorts included 1245 patients with CD (68% with progressive disease) and 1210 patients with UC (37% with progressive disease), whereas the validation cohorts included 302 patients with CD and 271 patients with UC, respectively, with similar outcome proportions. In our final model, age at diagnosis older than 60 years was significantly associated with a lower risk of developing progressive disease (odds ratio 0.390, 95% CI 0.164-0.923, P = 0.032), with a high discriminative power (AUC 0.724, 95% CI 0.693-754) in patients with CD. However, according to this model, no significant associations were found between age at diagnosis and the risk of developing progressive disease in patients with UC. No differences were observed in the AUC values between the validation and the derivation cohorts.

DISCUSSION

Patients with elderly-onset CD, but not patients with UC, were associated with a less progressive course of the disease.

Outcome of Ulcerative Colitis 20 Years after Diagnosis in a Prospective Population-based Inception Cohort from South-Eastern Norway, the IBSEN Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The long-term course of ulcerative colitis [UC] is difficult to predict. Mortality, colectomy, cancer, and hospitalisation represent hard outcomes of disease. Moreover, knowledge on the risk of relapses and need for potent medication add important information about living with UC. We aimed to evaluate the course and prognosis of UC during the first 20 years after diagnosis, and to identify early prognostic risk factors.

METHODS

From 1990 to 1994, a population-based inception cohort of patients with inflammatory bowel disease was enrolled in South-Eastern Norway. A systematic follow-up [FU] was conducted at 1,5, 10, and 20 years after diagnosis. Clinical outcomes were recorded continuously, and possible relationships between early disease characteristics and outcomes were analysed using multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 519 UC patients, 119 died, 60 were lost to FU, and 340 were included in the FU cohort. The 20-year cumulative risk of colectomy was 13.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] [11.4-14.6]). Extensive colitis at diagnosis was independently associated with an increased risk of colectomy compared with proctitis (hazard ratio [HR] = 2].8, 95% CI [1.3-6.1]). In contrast, mucosal healing at 1-year FU was independently associated with reduced risk of colectomy [HR = 0.4, 95% CI [0.2-0.8]), and inversely associated with subsequent risk of relapse [adjusted HR = 0.5, 95% CI [0.3-0.7]).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall risk of colectomy in our cohort was lower than expected from previous studies, although considerable for patients with extensive colitis at diagnosis. Early mucosal healing was associated with better disease outcomes 20 years after diagnosis.

Mucosal Healing Is Associated With the Reduced Disabling Disease in Crohn's Disease

Mucosal healing (MH) is the goal of the “treat to target” strategy in Crohn's disease (CD), which seeks to prevent disability. However, evidence is limited regarding whether achieving MH can reduce disability in CD. We aimed to estimate the probability of disabling disease and to investigate the association between MH and disabling disease in CD.

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis

INTRODUCTION

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables.

RESULTS

Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.