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Dykstra S, Satriano A, Cornhill AK, Lei LY, Labib D, Mikami Y, Flewitt J, Rivest S, Sandonato R, Feuchter P, Howarth AG, Lydell CP, Fine NM, Exner DV, Morillo CA, Wilton SB, Gavrilova ML, White JA. Machine learning prediction of atrial fibrillation in cardiovascular patients using cardiac magnetic resonance and electronic health information. Front Cardiovasc Med 2022; 9:998558. [PMID: 36247426 PMCID: PMC9554748 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.998558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2022] [Accepted: 09/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a commonly encountered cardiac arrhythmia associated with morbidity and substantial healthcare costs. While patients with cardiovascular disease experience the greatest risk of new-onset AF, no risk model has been developed to predict AF occurrence in this population. We hypothesized that a patient-specific model could be delivered using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) disease phenotyping, contextual patient health information, and machine learning.MethodsNine thousand four hundred forty-eight patients referred for CMR imaging were enrolled and followed over a 5-year period. Seven thousand, six hundred thirty-nine had no prior history of AF and were eligible to train and validate machine learning algorithms. Random survival forests (RSFs) were used to predict new-onset AF and compared to Cox proportional-hazard (CPH) models. The best performing features were identified from 115 variables sourced from three data domains: (i) CMR-based disease phenotype, (ii) patient health questionnaire, and (iii) electronic health records. We evaluated discriminative performance of optimized models using C-index and time-dependent AUC (tAUC).ResultsA RSF-based model of 20 variables (CIROC-AF-20) delivered an overall C-index of 0.78 for the prediction of new-onset AF with respective tAUCs of 0.80, 0.79, and 0.78 at 1-, 2- and 3-years. This outperformed a novel CPH-based model and historic AF risk scores. At 1-year of follow-up, validation cohort patients classified as high-risk of future AF by CIROC-AF-20 went on to experience a 17.3% incidence of new-onset AF, being 24.7-fold higher risk than low risk patients.ConclusionsUsing phenotypic data available at time of CMR imaging we developed and validated the first described risk model for the prediction of new-onset AF in patients with cardiovascular disease. Complementary value was provided by variables from patient-reported measures of health and the electronic health record, illustrating the value of multi-domain phenotypic data for the prediction of AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Dykstra
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Alessandro Satriano
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Aidan K. Cornhill
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Lucy Y. Lei
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Dina Labib
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Yoko Mikami
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Jacqueline Flewitt
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Sandra Rivest
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Rosa Sandonato
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Patricia Feuchter
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Andrew G. Howarth
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Carmen P. Lydell
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Nowell M. Fine
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Derek V. Exner
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Carlos A. Morillo
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Stephen B. Wilton
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | | | - James A. White
- Stephenson Cardiac Imaging Centre, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
- *Correspondence: James A. White
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