Is the EuroSCORE II reliable in surgical mitral valve repair? A single-centre validation study

CAROTIDSCORE.RU-The first Russian computer program for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy

GOAL

Presentation of the first Russian computer program (www.carotidscore.ru) for risk stratification of postoperative complications of carotid endarterectomy (CEE).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The present study is based on the analysis of a multicenter Russian database that includes 25,812 patients after CEE operated on from 01/01/2010 to 04/01/2022. The following types of CEE were implemented: 6814 classical CEE with plastic reconstruction of the reconstruction zone with a patch; 18,998 eversion CEE.

RESULTS

In the hospital postoperative period, 0.18% developed a lethal outcome, 0.14%-myocardial infarction, 0.35%-stroke. The combined endpoint was 0.68%. For each factor present in patients, a predictive coefficient was calculated. The prognostic coefficient was a numerical indicator reflecting the strength of the influence of each factor on the development of postoperative complications. Based on this formula, predictive coefficients were calculated for each factor present in patients in our study. The total contribution of these factors was reflected in "%" and denoted the risk of postoperative complications with a minimum value of 0% and a maximum of 100%. On the basis of the obtained calculations, a computer program CarotidSCORE was created. Its graphical interface is based on the QT framework (https://www.qt.io), which has established itself as one of the best solutions for desktop applications. It is possible not only to calculate the probability of developing a complication, but also to save all data about the patient in JSON format (for the patient's personal card and his anamnesis). The CarotidSCORE program contains 47 patient parameters, including clinical-demographic, anamnestic and angiographic characteristics. It allows you to choose one of the four types of CEE, which will provide an accurate stratification of the risk of complications for each of them in person.

CONCLUSION

CarotidSCORE (www.carotidscore.ru) is able to determine the likelihood of postoperative complications in patients undergoing CEE.

Validation of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II in a large Taiwan cardiac surgical centre

BACKGROUND

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II) is a well-established scoring system for predicting mortality in cardiac surgery. This system was derived predominantly from a European patient cohort; however, no validation of this system has been conducted in Taiwan. We sought to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II at a tertiary centre.

METHODS

The 2161 adult patients receiving cardiac surgery between 2017 and 2020 in our institution were included.

RESULTS

Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 7.89%. The performance of EuroSCORE II was assessed using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test for calibration. Data were analysed for type of surgery, risk stratification, and status of the operation. EuroSCORE II had good discriminative power (AUC=0.854, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.822-0.885) and good calibration (χ2=5.19, p=0.82) for all types of surgery except ventricular assist devices (AUC=0.618, 95% CI: 0.497-0.738). EuroSCORE II also showed good calibration for most types of surgery except coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) combined procedure (P=0.033), heart transplantation (HT) (P=0.017), and urgent operation (P=0.041). EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated the risk for CABG combined procedure and urgent operations, and overestimated the risk for HT.

CONCLUSION

EuroSCORE II had satisfactory discrimination and calibration power to predict surgical mortality in Taiwan. However, the model is poorly calibrated for CABG combined procedure, HT, urgent operation, and, likely, lower- and higher-risk patients.

Isolated annuloplasty in elderly patients with secondary mitral valve regurgitation: short- and long-term outcomes with a less invasive approach

Background

Long-term outcomes of elderly and frail patients with secondary mitral valve regurgitation (MR) are inconclusive. Especially in patients with co-morbidities such as atherosclerosis who are suffering from heart failure, optimal medical therapy (OMT) is the preferred therapy relative to surgical or percutaneous interventions. It remains challenging to identify the most successful therapy to improve symptoms and increase life expectancy. To reduce surgical trauma for these patients, minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MIMVS) was developed; this has shown promising medium-term results, but there is still a lack of evidence regarding long-term results. The aim of this investigation was to describe the long-term outcomes of less invasive mitral valve surgery (MVS) in elderly patients.

Methods

In this longitudinal retrospective analysis, 67 patients (aged ≥70 years) with secondary MR who underwent MV repair ± tricuspid valve repair (TVR) were identified. MVS was performed via minithoracotomy (MT) in most cases (n = 54); in patients with contraindications for MIMVS, partial upper sternotomy (PS) was the preferred route for surgical access (n = 13). The appropriate access route was chosen according to the patient's clinical condition and comorbidities. We analyzed reoperation-free long-term survival, combined operative success (lack of residual MR, conversion to MV replacement, or larger thoracic incisions), and perioperative safety (at 30 days: mortality, re-thoracotomy, ECMO, pacemaker implantation, dialysis, longer ventilation, stroke, myocardial infarction). In a subgroup analysis, we compared long-term survival in MVS patients with and without TVR.

Results

The median age of patients (62.7% female) was 74 years (interquartile range: 72-76 years), with a median EuroSCORE2 of 2.8% (1.5%-4.6%) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide plasma levels of 1,434 ng/L (1035-2149 ng/L). The median follow-up period was 5.6 years (2.7-8.5 years). The reoperation-free long-term survival rate up to 10 years was 66.2%. Combined operative success and perioperative safety were achieved in 94% and 76% of patients, respectively. Additional TVR was performed in 56.7% of patients, without any significant difference in survival rates compared to the group without TVR (p = 0.417; HR 1.473, 95% CI 0.578-3.757).

Conclusion

Less invasive MV repair for secondary MR shows excellent operative success and safety in selected patients. Freedom from significant MR and from the need for reoperation indicates long-lasting efficacy. These results should be considered in heart team discussions regarding allocation of patients to surgical mitral procedures.

Risk of Surgical Mitral Valve Repair for Primary Mitral Regurgitation

BACKGROUND

Risk estimation for surgical intervention is an essential component of heart team shared decision-making. However, current mitral valve (MV) surgery risk models used in practice lack etiologic or procedural specificity. The purpose of this study was to establish a comprehensive method for assessment of operative risk of MV repair of primary mitral regurgitation (MR).

METHODS

A novel etiology and procedure-specific algorithm identified 53,462 consecutive (July 2014 to June 2020) intention-to-treat MV repair patients with primary MR from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Risk models were fit for 30-day operative mortality, mortality and/or major morbidity, and conversion-to-replacement (CONV). As-treated mortality and morbidity models were derived separately.

RESULTS

Event rates for mortality (n = 619; 1.16%), mortality plus morbidity (n = 4746; 8.88%), and CONV (n = 3399; 6.36%) were low. Mortality was higher in CONV patients vs repair (3.18% vs 1.02%). All event rates were lower with increasing program volumes. The mortality risk model had excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.807) and calibration and confirmed very low mortality risk for isolated MV repair for primary MR, with mean mortality risk of 1.16% and median of 0.55% (interquartile range: 0.30%-1.17%) with 90th and 95th percentiles 2.48% and 3.99%, respectively. The mortality risk was <0.5% in patients <65 years of age, with 97% of the total population across age groups having a risk of <3%. Only 1 in 4 patients age 75 or older had >3% estimated risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This etiologic and procedure-specific risk model establishes that the contemporary mortality risk of MV repair for primary MR is <1% for the vast majority of patients.

Risk of Surgical Mitral Valve Repair for Primary Mitral Regurgitation

BACKGROUND

Risk estimation for surgical intervention is an essential component of heart team shared decision-making. However, current mitral valve (MV) surgery risk models used in practice lack etiologic or procedural specificity.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to establish a comprehensive method for assessment of operative risk of MV repair of primary mitral regurgitation (MR).

METHODS

A novel etiology and procedure-specific algorithm identified 53,462 consecutive (July 2014 to June 2020) intention-to-treat MV repair patients with primary MR from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Risk models were fit for 30-day operative mortality, mortality and/or major morbidity, and conversion-to-replacement (CONV). As-treated mortality and morbidity models were derived separately.

RESULTS

Event rates for mortality (n = 619; 1.16%), mortality plus morbidity (n = 4,746; 8.88%), and CONV (n = 3,399; 6.36%) were low. Mortality was higher in CONV patients vs repair (3.18% vs 1.02%). All event rates were lower with increasing program volumes. The mortality risk model had excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.807) and calibration and confirmed very low mortality risk for isolated MV repair for primary MR, with mean mortality risk of 1.16% and median of 0.55% (IQR: 0.30%-1.17%) with 90th and 95th percentiles 2.48% and 3.99%, respectively. The mortality risk was <0.5% in patients <65 years of age, with 97% of the total population across age groups having a risk of <3%. Only 1 in 4 patients age 75 or older had >3% estimated risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This etiologic and procedure-specific risk model establishes that the contemporary mortality risk of MV repair for primary MR is <1% for the vast majority of patients.

Five-year follow-up of mitral valve repair versus replacement: a propensity score analysis

BACKGROUND

Mitral valve repair (MVRe) is considered to have a superior outcome compared to replacement (MVRp) in patients with mitral valve regurgitation (MVR). It was the aim of the study to analyse the clinical results and identify risk factors for short and long-term mortality.

METHODS

In a retrospective single-center analysis, patients undergoing an isolated mitral valve procedure from June 2010 to December 2016 were identified. These were subsequently homogenized using 10 baseline characteristics for propensity-score matching. Comparative analyses were performed for early and long-term results, using adequate statistical tools, and identifying risk factors for the investigated endpoints, primary end-point: all-cause mortality within 5 years and secondary end-points: recurrent MVR, reoperation, endocarditis and/or mortality with 30 days, 1, 3 and 5 years.

RESULTS

241 patients were identified in the entire patient cohort. After matching, patients were divided into 2 groups of 64 each respectively. The median age was similar in the two groups. There was a significant interaction between early mortality risk of MV in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) (OR 11.94, 95% CI 1.49-285.92, p = 0.04) and late mortality in patients with higher EuroSCORE II (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.23, p < 0.001). The primary end-point showed 5-year survival rate was significantly higher in MVRe versus MVRp (90.06% vs. 79.54% respectively, p = 0.04). The secondary end-point demonstrated recurrent MVR not to be statistically significant between the 2 groups (p = 0.09) as well as reoperation (p = 0.28). Endocarditis was observed in one patient after MVRp.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded MVRe to be associated with lower operative and 5-year mortality and good postoperative outcomes compared to patients undergoing MVRp. Concomitant CAD was identified as one of the risk factors for increasing the in-hospital mortality rate. There was no significant difference in rehospitalisation over the follow-up period. MVRe should be the treatment of choice for severe MVR and should remain a central aspect in valve centers' treatment algorithms and quality measures.

Prognostic significance of postoperative loss of skeletal muscle mass in patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting

Background

Increasing life expectancy of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains to be the major concern of cardiac surgeons. However, few studies have investigated the effect of postoperative skeletal muscle index (SMI) loss on prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic role of postoperative SMI loss ≥ 5% after CABG, in order to develop a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS).

Methods

Patients underwent CABG via midline sternotomy from December 2015 to March 2021 were recruited in this study. Preoperative and postoperative 3 months chest computed tomography (CT) images were compared to assess changes in SMI at T12 level. Based on this, patients were classified into the presence or absence of SMI loss ≥ 5%. The association between postoperative SMI loss ≥ 5% and OS was then analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox model. A novel nomogram incorporating independent clinical prognostic variables was also developed.

Results

The study enrolled 506 patients receiving CABG, of whom 98 patients experienced T12 SMI loss ≥ 5% and had a significantly worse OS (P < 0.0001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that T12 SMI per cent change (%T12 SMI-change) was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR = 0.809, 95% CI = 0.749–0.874). The nomogram incorporating %T12 SMI-change with other variables was accurate for predicting OS. Besides, we also found that postoperative oral nutritional supplement (ONS) can rescue T12 SMI loss.

Conclusion

Postoperative SMI loss can predict survival outcome after CABG. The nomogram incorporating changes in SMI provides a superior performance than existing systems.

Intraoperative hemoadsorption in high-risk patients with infective endocarditis

Background

Postoperative sepsis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis undergoing surgical therapy. Blood purification using hemoadsorption therapy shows promising results in the treatment of sepsis. In this study, the clinical effects of intraoperative hemoadsorption in high-risk patients with infective endocarditis were evaluated.

Methods

Eligible candidates were high-risk patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2014 and December 2019. Patients with intraoperative hemoadsorption (hemoadsorption) were compared to patients without hemoadsorption (control). The endpoints were the incidence of postoperative sepsis, sepsis-associated death and in-hospital mortality. Additionally, postoperative vasopressor need, systemic vascular resistance indices and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were compared.

Results

After propensity score matching, 70 high-risk patients were included. Postoperative sepsis occurred in 14 patients in the hemoadsorption group and in 16 patients in the control group, p = 0.629. Four patients died due to postoperative sepsis in the hemoadsorption group, while 11 postoperative septic patients died in the control group, p = 0.041. In-hospital mortality was 34% in the hemoadsorption group versus 43% in the control group, p = 0.461. On ICU-admission and the first postoperative day, the cumulative vasopressor need was 0.17 versus 0.25 μg/kgBW/min, p = 0.123 and 0.06 versus 0.11 μg/kgBW/min, p = 0.037, and the systemic vascular resistance index was 1448 versus 941 dyn·s·cm-5, p = 0.013 and 1156 versus 858 dyn·s·cm-5, p = 0.110 in the hemoadsorption versus control group, respectively. Postoperative course of SOFA score normalized significantly (p = 0.01) faster in the hemoadsorption group.

Conclusions

In high-risk cardiac surgical patients with infective endocarditis, intraoperative hemoadsorption significantly reduced sepsis-associated mortality. Furthermore, intraoperative hemoadsorption resulted in significant faster recovery of hemodynamics and organ function. Intraoperative hemoadsorption seems to attenuate the severity of postoperative sepsis.

Is EuroSCORE II still a reliable predictor for cardiac surgery mortality in 2022? A retrospective study study

OBJECTIVES

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is the most common tool used to evaluate the perioperative risk of mortality after cardiac surgery in Europe, and its use is currently recommended by the relevant guidelines. However, recently, its role has been questioned: Several papers have suggested that these algorithms may no longer be adequate for risk prediction due to an overestimation of adult cardiac surgical risk. Our goal was to validate the EuroSCORE II in the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing open cardiac surgery in a high-volume hospital.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we included all patients who underwent cardiac surgery from January 2016 to May 2022 within the departments of cardiac surgery of the Monzino Cardiology Centre in Milan, Italy. We evaluated the discrimination power of the EuroSCORE II by using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the corresponding area under the curve. We performed calibration plots to assess the concordance between the model's prediction and the observed outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 4,034 patients were included (mean age = 65.1 years; 68% males), of which 674 (16.7%) underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The EuroSCORE II showed a good discrimination power in predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality (area under the curve = 0.834). However, for interventions performed in an elective setting, very low values of the EuroSCORE II overestimated the observed mortality, whereas for interventions performed in an emergency setting, EuroSCORE II values above 10 extensively underestimated the observed mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the EuroSCORE II seems not to be a reliable score in estimating the true risk of death, especially in high-risk patients.