On-line risk prediction models for acute type A aortic dissection surgery: validation of the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II

Serum NPTX2 as a Potential Predictive Biomarker for Postoperative Delirium in Patients with Acute Type A Aortic Dissection

Background

Postoperative delirium (POD) significantly impacts patient outcomes after acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) surgeries. This study investigates the role of Neuronal Pentraxin 2 (NPTX2) as a potential biomarker for POD in ATAAD patients.

Methods

This secondary analysis involved ATAAD patients from a prospective observational study. Serum NPTX2 levels were measured preoperatively and immediately postoperatively using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Delirium was assessed using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) or CAM for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Statistical analyses included the Pearson Correlation Coefficient and multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the association between NPTX2 levels and POD.

Results

Among the 62 patients included, 46.77% developed POD. Patients with POD had significantly lower preoperative and postoperative serum NPTX2 levels. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that postoperative NPTX2 had a strong predictive capability for POD (AUC = 0.895). The optimal cutoff for postoperative NPTX2 in predicting POD was less than 421.4 pg/mL. Preoperative NPTX2 also demonstrated predictive value, albeit weaker (AUC = 0.683).

Conclusion

Serum NPTX2 levels, both preoperatively and postoperatively, are promising biomarkers for predicting POD in ATAAD patients. These findings suggest that NPTX2 could be instrumental in early POD detection and intervention strategies.

A predictive model of 30-day mortality in patients with acute type A aortic dissection

OBJECTIVE

Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease that requires an effective predictive model to predict and assess a patient's risk of death. Our study aimed to construct a model for predicting the risk of 30-day death in patients with ATAAD and the prediction accuracy of the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II) was verified.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between June 2019 and June 2023, 109 patients with ATAAD underwent surgical treatment at our hospital (35 in the death group and 74 in the survival group). The differences in image parameters between the two groups were compared. Search for independent predictors and develop models that predict 30-day mortality in patients with ATAAD. GERAADA Score and EuroSCORE II were retrospectively calculated and indicated mortality was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that ascending aortic length and pericardial effusion were independent predictors of death within 30 days in patients with ATAAD. We constructed four models, GERAADA Score (Model 1), EuroSCORE II (Model 2), Model 1, ascending aorta length, and pericardial effusion (Model 3), and Model 2, ascending aorta length, and pericardial effusion (Model 4). The area under the curve (AUC = 0.832) of Model 3 was significantly different from those of Models 1 (AUC = 0.683) and 2 (AUC = 0.599), respectively (p < 0.05, DeLong test).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding ascending aorta length and pericardial effusion to the GERAADA Score can improve the predictive power of 30-day mortality in patients with ATAAD.

Classification of the Urgency of the Procedure and Outcome of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection

Surgery for type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is associated with a high risk of early mortality. The prognostic impact of a new classification of the urgency of the procedure was evaluated in this multicenter cohort study. Data on consecutive patients who underwent surgery for acute TAAD were retrospectively collected in the multicenter, retrospective European Registry of TAAD (ERTAAD). The rates of in-hospital mortality of 3,902 consecutive patients increased along with the ERTAAD procedure urgency grades: urgent procedure 10.0%, emergency procedure grade 1 13.3%, emergency procedure grade 2 22.1%, salvage procedure grade 1 45.6%, and salvage procedure grade 2 57.1% (p <0.0001). Preoperative arterial lactate correlated with the urgency grades. Inclusion of the ERTAAD procedure urgency classification significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of the regression model and the integrated discrimination indexes and the net reclassification indexes. The risk of postoperative stroke/global brain ischemia, mesenteric ischemia, lower limb ischemia, dialysis, and acute heart failure increased along with the urgency grades. In conclusion, the urgency of surgical repair of acute TAAD, which seems to have a significant impact on the risk of in-hospital mortality, may be useful to improve the stratification of the operative risk of these critically ill patients. This study showed that salvage surgery for TAAD is justified because half of the patients may survive to discharge.

Comparison of 4 mortality scores for surgical repair of type A aortic dissection: a multicentre external validation

OBJECTIVES

In the last decades, 4 different scores for the prediction of mortality following surgery for type A acute aortic dissection (TAAD) were proposed. We aimed to validate these scores in a large external multicentre cohort.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed patients who underwent surgery for TAAD between 2000 and 2020. Patients were enrolled from 10 centres from 2 European countries. Outcomes were the early (30-day and/or in-hospital) and 1-year mortality. Discrimination, calibration and observed/expected (O/E) ratio were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 1895 patients (31.7% females, mean age 63.72 ± 12.8 years) were included in the study. Thirty-day mortality and in-hospital mortality were 21.7% (n = 412) and 22.5% (n = 427) respectively. The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) score shows to have the best discrimination [area under the curve (AUC) 0.671 and 0.672] in predicting as well the early and the 1-year mortality, followed by the International Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection (IRAD) model 1 (AUC 0.658 and 0.672), the Centofanti (AUC 0.645 and 0.66) and the UK aortic score (AUC 0.549 and 0.563). According to Hosmer-Lemeshow and Brier tests, the IRAD model I and GERAADA, respectively, were well calibrated for the early mortality, while the GERAADA and Centofanti for the 1-year mortality. The O/E analysis showed a marked underestimation for patients labelled as low-risk for UK aortic score and IRAD model I for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The GERAADA score showed the best performance in comparison with other scores. However, none of them achieved together a fair discrimination and a good calibration for predicting either the early or the 1-year mortality.

Validation of the GERAADA score to predict 30-day mortality in acute type A aortic dissection in a single high-volume aortic centre

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate employing the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) score to predict 30-day mortality in an aortic centre in the USA.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and June 2021, 689 consecutive patients underwent surgery for acute type A dissection at a single institution. Excluded were patients with missing clinical data (N = 4). The GERAADA risk score was retrospectively calculated via a web-based application. Model discrimination power was calculated with c-statistics from logistic regression and reported as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals. The calibration was measured by calculating the observed versus estimated mortality ratio. The Brier score was used for the overall model evaluation.

RESULTS

Included were 685 patients [mean age 60.6 years (SD: 13.5), 64.8% male] who underwent surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. The 30-day mortality rate was 12.0%. The GERAADA score demonstrated very good discrimination power with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.762 (95% confidence interval 0.703-0.821). The entire cohort's observed versus estimated mortality ratio was 0.543 (0.439-0.648), indicating an overestimation of the model-calculated risk. The Brier score was 0.010, thus revealing the model's acceptable overall performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The GERAADA score is a practical and easily accessible tool for reliably estimating the 30-day mortality risk of patients undergoing surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. This model may naturally overestimate risk in patients undergoing surgery in experienced aortic centres.

Baseline risk factors of in-hospital mortality after surgery for acute type A aortic dissection: an ERTAAD study

Background

Surgery for type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is associated with high risk of mortality. Current risk scoring methods have a limited predictive accuracy.

Methods

Subjects were patients who underwent surgery for acute TAAD at 18 European centers of cardiac surgery from the European Registry of Type A Aortic Dissection (ERTAAD).

Results

Out of 3,902 patients included in the ERTAAD, 2,477 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the validation dataset (2,229 patients), the rate of in-hospital mortality was 18.4%. The rate of composite outcome (in-hospital death, stroke/global ischemia, dialysis, and/or acute heart failure) was 41.2%, and 10-year mortality rate was 47.0%. Logistic regression identified the following patient-related variables associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality [area under the curve (AUC), 0.755, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.729-0.780; Brier score 0.128]: age; estimated glomerular filtration rate; arterial lactate; iatrogenic dissection; left ventricular ejection fraction ≤50%; invasive mechanical ventilation; cardiopulmonary resuscitation immediately before surgery; and cerebral, mesenteric, and peripheral malperfusion. The estimated risk score was associated with an increased risk of composite outcome (AUC, 0.689, 95% CI, 0.667-0.711) and of late mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 1.035, 95% CI, 1.031-1.038; Harrell's C 0.702; Somer's D 0.403]. In the validation dataset (248 patients), the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.1%, the composite outcome rate was 41.5%, and the 10-year mortality rate was 49.1%. The estimated risk score was predictive of in-hospital mortality (AUC, 0.703, 95% CI, 0.613-0.793; Brier score 0.121; slope 0.905) and of composite outcome (AUC, 0.682, 95% CI, 0.614-0.749). The estimated risk score was predictive of late mortality (HR, 1.035, 95% CI, 1.031-1.038; Harrell's C 0.702; Somer's D 0.403), also when hospital deaths were excluded from the analysis (HR, 1.024, 95% CI, 1.018-1.031; Harrell's C 0.630; Somer's D 0.261).

Conclusions

The present analysis identified several baseline clinical risk factors, along with preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and arterial lactate, which are predictive of in-hospital mortality and major postoperative adverse events after surgical repair of acute TAAD. These risk factors may be valuable components for risk adjustment in the evaluation of surgical and anesthesiological strategies aiming to improve the results of surgery for TAAD.

Clinical Trial Registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT04831073.

Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II

EuroSCORE II is one of the most widely utilized cardiovascular surgery risk scoring systems. Recently, a new online score calculator, namely the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA), was launched to predict 30-day surgical mortality for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive performance of these two scores. We calculated the two scores for 1346 ATAAD patients from January 2012 to December 2021. The overall performance was evaluated using Brier scores and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to assess diagnostic ability, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was utilized to evaluate calibration. The GERAADA score and EuroSCORE II predicted 30-day mortality rates of 14.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while the observed rate was 12.5%. The predictive ability of EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.708, 95% CI: 0.664-0.792) was superior to that of the GERAADA score (0.648, 95% CI: 0.605-0.692). The GERAADA score had higher sensitivity but lower specificity than EuroSCORE II. And the GERAADA score may overestimate mortality (0.76, 95% CI: 0.65-0.89), while EuroSCORE II may underestimate the mortality rate (3.17, 95% CI: 2.92-3.44). The EuroSCORE II was superior in predicting surgical mortality among ATAAD patients. But the observed 30-day mortality rate certified a good calibration for the GERAADA score.

Anzhen Risk Evaluation System for Acute Aortic Syndrome (AZSCORE-AAS): protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study in northern China

INTRODUCTION

Acute aortic syndrome (AAS) is a group of acute and critical conditions, including acute aortic dissection (AAD), acute intramural haematoma and penetrating aortic ulcer. High mortality and morbidity rates result in a poor patient prognosis. Prompt diagnoses and timely interventions are paramount for saving patients' lives. In recent years, risk models for AAD have been established worldwide; however, a risk evaluation system for AAS is still lacking in China. Therefore, this study aims to develop an early warning and risk scoring system in combination with the novel potential biomarker soluble ST2 (sST2) for AAS.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multicentre, prospective, observational study will recruit patients diagnosed with AAS at three tertiary referral centres from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2023. We will analyse the discrepancies in sST2 levels in patients with different AAS types and explore the accuracy of sST2 in distinguishing between them. We will also incorporate potential risk factors and sST2 into a logistic regression model to establish a logistic risk scoring system for predicting postoperative death and prolonged intensive care unit stay in patients with AAS.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was registered on the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry website (http://www. chictr. org. cn/). Ethical approval was obtained from the human research ethics committees of Beijing Anzhen Hospital (KS2019016). The ethics review board of each participating hospital agreed to participate. The final risk prediction model will be published in an appropriate journal and disseminated as a mobile application for clinical use. Approval and anonymised data will be shared.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR1900027763.

Analysis of risk factors for postoperative mortality in acute type A aortic dissection patients under different critical levels

We built up a risk stratification model to divide acute type A aortic dissection (aTAAD) patients into low- and high-risk groups, further, to evaluate the risk factors for postoperative mortality. A total of 1364 patients from 2010 to 2020 in our center were retrospectively analyzed. More than twenty clinical variables were related with postoperative mortality. The postoperative mortality of the high-risk patients was doubled than the low-risk ones (21.8% vs 10.1%). The increased operation time, combined coronary artery bypass graft, cerebral complications, re-intubation, continuous renal replacement therapy and surgical infection were risk factors of postoperative mortality in low-risk patients. In addition, postoperative lower limbs or visceral malperfusion were risk factors, axillary artery cannulation and moderate hypothermia were protective factors in high-risk patients. A scoring system for quick decision-making is needed to select appropriate surgical strategy in aTAAD patients. For low-risk patients, different surgical treatments can be performed with similar clinical prognosis. Limited arch treatment and appropriate cannulation approach are crucial in high-risk aTAAD patients.

Validation of the German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score in predicting 30-day mortality after type A aortic dissection surgery

OBJECTIVES

No reliable scores are available to predict mortality following surgery for type A acute aortic dissection (TAAAD). Recently, the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) score has been developed. We aim to compare how the GERAADA score performs in predicting operative mortality for TAAAD to the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II.

METHODS

We calculated the GERAADA score and EuroSCORE II in patients who underwent TAAAD repair at the Bristol Heart Institute. As there are no precise criteria to calculate the GERAADA score, we used 2 methods: a Clinical-GERAADA score, which evaluated malperfusion with clinical and radiological evidence, and a Radiological-GERAADA score, where malperfusion was assessed by computed tomography scan alone.

RESULTS

207 consecutive patients had surgery for TAAAD, and the observed 30-day mortality was 15%. The Clinical-GERAADA score showed the strongest discriminative power with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.89], while the Radiological-GERAADA score had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.67-0.87). EuroSCORE II showed acceptable discriminative power with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.67-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical GERAADA score performed better than the other scores and it is specific and easy to use in the context of a TAAAD. Further validation of the new criteria for malperfusion is needed.

Acute aortic dissection: evidence, uncertainties, and future therapies

Remarkable progress has become especially apparent in aortic medicine in the last few decades, leading to essential changes in how thoracic aortic dissection is understood and treated. This state-of-the-art review article addresses the mechanisms of acute aortic dissection, explaining the role of its primary entry location, proximal, and distal dissection extension in their clinical presentation and impact on the decision-making process towards the best treatment approach. The latest evidence on novel treatment methods for acute aortic syndromes is presented, and the diverse dissection classification systems that remain uncertain are discussed, which reveals the need for shared terminology and more clarity. Finally, future aspects are discussed in treating acute aortic dissection, such as the endovascular treatment of aortic dissection Type A and biomarkers for acute aortic syndromes.

Prediction Nomogram for Postoperative 30-Day Mortality in Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Patients Receiving Total Aortic Arch Replacement With Frozen Elephant Trunk Technique

Objective

To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict postoperative 30-day mortality in acute type A aortic dissection patients receiving total aortic arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk technique.

Method

Clinical data on 1,156 consecutive acute type A aortic dissection patients who got total aortic arch replacement using the frozen elephant trunk technique was collected from January 2010 to December 2020. These patients were divided into training and testing cohorts at random with a ratio of 7:3. To predict postoperative 30-day mortality, a nomogram was established in the training set using the logistic regression model. The novel nomogram was then validated in the testing set. The nomogram's calibration and discrimination were evaluated. In addition, we created four machine learning prediction models in the training set. In terms of calibration and discrimination, the nomogram was compared to these machine learning models in testing set.

Results

Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter <45 mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 ml/min/1.73 m², persistent abdominal pain, radiological celiac trunk malperfusion, concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting and cardiopulmonary bypass time >4 h were independent predictors of the 30-day mortality. The nomogram based on these 6 predictors manifested satisfying calibration and discrimination. In testing set, the nomogram outperformed the other 4 machine learning models.

Conclusion

The novel nomogram is a simple and effective tool to predict 30-day mortality rate for acute type A aortic dissection patients undergoing total aortic arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk technique.