A fresh look at ischaemic heart disease: from artificial intelligence to reappraisal of old drugs

Machine Learning Identifies Clinical Parameters to Predict Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Mitral Valve Repair

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML)-based risk stratification tool for 1-year mortality in transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVR) patients incorporating metabolic and hemodynamic parameters.

BACKGROUND

The lack of appropriate, well-validated, and specific means to risk-stratify patients with mitral regurgitation complicates the evaluation of prognostic benefits of TMVR in clinical trials and practice.

METHODS

A total of 1,009 TMVR patients from 3 university hospitals within the Heart Failure Network Rhineland were included; 1 hospital (n = 317) served as external validation. The primary endpoint was all-cause 1-year mortality. Model performance was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. In the derivation cohort, different ML algorithms were tested using 5-fold cross-validation. The final model, called MITRALITY (transcatheter mitral valve repair mortality prediction system) was tested in the validation cohort with respect to existing clinical scores.

RESULTS

Extreme gradient boosting was selected for the MITRALITY score, using only 6 baseline clinical features for prediction (in order of predictive importance): urea, hemoglobin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, mean arterial pressure, body mass index, and creatinine. In the external validation cohort, the MITRALITY score's area under the curve was 0.783 (95% CI: 0.716-0.849), while existing scores yielded areas under the curve of 0.721 (95% CI: 0.63-0.811) and 0.657 (95% CI: 0.536-0.778) at best.

CONCLUSIONS

The MITRALITY score is a novel, internally and externally validated ML-based tool for risk stratification of patients prior to TMVR, potentially serving future clinical trials and daily clinical practice.

Application of Surgical Decision Model for Patients With Childhood Cataract: A Study Based on Real World Data

Reliable validated methods are necessary to verify the performance of diagnosis and therapy-assisted models in clinical practice. However, some validated results have research bias and may not reflect the results of real-world application. In addition, the conduct of clinical trials has executive risks for the indeterminate effectiveness of models and it is challenging to finish validated clinical trials of rare diseases. Real world data (RWD) can probably solve this problem. In our study, we collected RWD from 251 patients with a rare disease, childhood cataract (CC) and conducted a retrospective study to validate the CC surgical decision model. The consistency of the real surgical type and recommended surgical type was 94.16%. In the cataract extraction (CE) group, the model recommended the same surgical type for 84.48% of eyes, but the model advised conducting cataract extraction and primary intraocular lens implantation (CE + IOL) surgery in 15.52% of eyes, which was different from the real-world choices. In the CE + IOL group, the model recommended the same surgical type for 100% of eyes. The real-recommended matched rates were 94.22% in the eyes of bilateral patients and 90.38% in the eyes of unilateral patients. Our study is the first to apply RWD to complete a retrospective study evaluating a clinical model, and the results indicate the availability and feasibility of applying RWD in model validation and serve guidance for intelligent model evaluation for rare diseases.