Walking the tightrope: a balanced discussion of the benefits and harms of extended duration anticoagulation for venous thrombo-embolism

External validation of the PE-SARD risk score for predicting early bleeding in acute pulmonary embolism in the RIETE Registry

INTRODUCTION

The PE-SARD score (syncope, anemia, renal dysfunction) was developed to predict the risk of major bleeding in the acute phase of pulmonary embolism (PE).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 50,686 patients with acute PE included in the RIETE registry to externally validate the PE-SARD score. We calculated the overall reliability of the PE-SARD score, as well as discrimination and calibration for predicting the risk of major bleeding at 30 days. The performance of PE-SARD was compared to the BACS and PE-CH models.

RESULTS

During the first 30 days, 640 patients (1.3 %) had a major bleeding event. The incidence of major bleeding within 30 days was 0.6 % in the PE-SARD-defined low-risk group, 1.5 % in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5 % in the high-risk group, for an OR of 2.22 (95 % CI, 2.02-2.43) for the intermediate-risk group (vs low-risk group), and 3.94 for the high-risk group (vs low-risk group). The corresponding sensitivity was 81.1 % (intermediate/high vs low risk), and specificity was 85.9 % (95 % CI, 85.8-86.1) (low/intermediate vs high risk). The applicability of PE-SARD was consistent across clinically relevant patient subgroups and over shorter time periods of follow-up (i.e., 3 and 7 days). The C-index was 0.654 and calibration was excellent. The PE-SARD bleeding score improved the major bleeding risk prediction compared with the BACS and PE-CH scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The PE-SARD score identifies PE patients with a higher risk of bleeding, which could assist providers for potentially adjusting PE management, in a framework of shared decision-making with individual patients.

Provoked vs minimally provoked vs unprovoked VTE: does it matter?

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a multifactorial disease, and its risk depends on exposure to risk factors and predisposing conditions. Based on their strength of association with a VTE episode, risk factors are classified as major or minor and determined using a temporal pattern to be transient or persistent. All patients with VTE should receive anticoagulant treatment for at least 3 months in the absence of an absolute contraindication. Beyond this period, selected patients may be candidates for an extended phase of anticoagulation aimed at secondary VTE prevention. The risk of recurrent VTE if anticoagulation is discontinued is probably the main driver of decision-making regarding extended treatment. The risk of recurrence after VTE associated with major risk factors is low if the risk factor is no longer present. In this case, treatment can be discontinued. If the major risk factor is persistent, anticoagulation should be continued. After VTE occurring in the absence of risk factors, anticoagulation should probably be continued indefinitely if the risk for bleeding is low and preferably with minimal effective doses of anticoagulants. VTE occurring after exposure to minor risk factors is probably the most challenging situation, especially if the clinical manifestation was acute pulmonary embolism. Understanding the actual role of minor risk factors in the occurrence of VTE helps in estimating the risk of recurrence and avoiding the dangers associated with unnecessary anticoagulation. The availability of safer strategies for anticoagulation could allow personalized strategies for secondary prevention of VTE.