Atrial ectopy and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as predictors of atrial fibrillation: a population-based cohort study

Serum Beta-2 Microglobulin: A Possible Biomarker for Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common persistent arrhythmia that can cause complications (including stroke). Therefore, its diagnosis and treatment require increased attention. Although beta-2 microglobulin (b2-MG) is a novel marker of cardiovascular disease, its role in AF has not been evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS We conducted a case-control study with 61 patients who had normal heart rhythm (control group) and 60 patients with AF (research group). We analyzed the serum b2-MG levels in both groups and performed multivariate analysis to assess the correlation between b2-MG and left atrial remodeling. In addition, b2-MG levels were compared between the left atrial blood and peripheral venous blood of another set of 57 patients with AF, who underwent cryoballoon ablation. RESULTS There were no statistically significant differences in the baseline characteristics (age, sex, history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke, coronary heart disease, and estimated glomerular filtration rate) of the control and research groups. The left atrial anteroposterior diameters (LAD) and left ventricular end-systolic diameters in the AF group were significantly larger compared to the control group (P<0.01). Serum ß2-MG levels in patients with AF were significantly higher (P<0.01) and positively correlated with the LAD (B-coefficient 25.482, 95% CI 14.410~36.554, P<0.01), serum ß2-MG levels in the left atrial blood were significantly higher than those in peripheral venous blood (P<0.01), and serum ß2-MG levels were an independent predictor of AF. CONCLUSIONS With the development of atrial fibrillation, the serum ß2-MG levels increase and are closely related to the left atrial remodeling due to AF. Therefore, ß2-MG can be an effective biomarker for predicting AF.

Risk Prediction Model for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population - The Hisayama Study

BACKGROUND

The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.Methods and Results:A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

Prediction models for atrial fibrillation applicable in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with an increased stroke risk. The use of multivariable prediction models could result in more efficient primary AF screening by selecting at-risk individuals. We aimed to determine which model may be best suitable for increasing efficiency of future primary AF screening efforts.

Methods and results

We performed a systematic review on multivariable models derived, validated, and/or augmented for AF prediction in community cohorts using Pubmed, Embase, and CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) through 1 August 2019. We performed meta-analysis of model discrimination with the summary C-statistic as the primary expression of associations using a random effects model. In case of high heterogeneity, we calculated a 95% prediction interval. We used the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) checklist for risk of bias assessment. We included 27 studies with a total of 2 978 659 unique participants among 20 cohorts with mean age ranging from 42 to 76 years. We identified 21 risk models used for incident AF risk in community cohorts. Three models showed significant summary discrimination despite high heterogeneity: CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) [summary C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.66–0.76], FHS-AF (Framingham Heart Study risk score for AF) (summary C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI 0.64–0.76), and CHA₂DS₂-VASc (summary C-statistic 0.69; 95% CI 0.64–0.74). Of these, CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF had originally been derived for AF incidence prediction. Only CHARGE-AF, which comprises easily obtainable measurements and medical history elements, showed significant summary discrimination among cohorts that had applied a uniform (5-year) risk prediction window.

Conclusion

CHARGE-AF appeared most suitable for primary screening purposes in terms of performance and applicability in older community cohorts of predominantly European descent.

Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Persons with Very High Serum Levels of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Objective

While persons in the upper fourth or fifth of the distribution of serum levels of N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are at a sharply increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation, their absolute risk of this condition (about 20 per 1000 per year) is not clearly high enough to justify prevention or early detection measures. We sought to determine whether the incidence of atrial fibrillation among persons with VERY high levels of NT-proBNP might be sufficiently high to warrant further action.

Design and Setting

Among persons enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we documented rates of new onset atrial fibrillation in those with increasingly high serum levels of NT-proBNP.

Results

There was a monotonic increase in the incidence of atrial fibrillation with increasing serum level of NT-proBNP, reaching rates of about 50–70 cases per 1000 person-years among those in the upper 3.1% of the distribution (above 422 pg/mL). In this group the incidence tended to be somewhat higher still among persons who were at increased risk of atrial fibrillation for other reasons (eg older age), but in no subgroup did the incidence reach 100 per 1000 person-years.

Conclusion

Serum levels of NT-proBNP have a considerable ability to predict the development of atrial fibrillation. However, the value of screening middle aged and older adults for these levels hinges largely on the ability of interventions in screen-positive people to lead to a reduced incidence of atrial fibrillation and its complications.

Excessive Supraventricular Ectopic Activity and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Excessive supraventricular ectopic activity (ESVEA), in the form of frequent premature atrial contractions (PACs) and runs of PACs, is commonly observed in clinical practice and is frequently considered to be benign. Yet, recent studies have demonstrated a link between ESVEA and adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the association between ESVEA and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, and mortality.

RECENT FINDINGS

A systematic search was performed in PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to December 2017 to identify studies assessing adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ESVEA, recorded on ambulatory electrocardiography. ESVEA was defined as a burden of PACs > 30 PACs/h or any runs of ≥20 PACs. The risk estimates for EVSEA and each clinical endpoint were pooled and analyzed separately.

RESULTS

Five studies comprising 7545 participants were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled analysis showed that ESVEA doubled the risk of AF (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.70-2.82). ESVEA was also associated with a higher incidence of stroke (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.24-4.02). Finally, ESVEA was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.07). Our meta-analysis found that ESVEA is closely associated with AF, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Further studies are required to examine the implication of therapeutic strategies in patients with ESVEA, in order to prevent potential subsequent adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

P-wave indices as predictors of atrial fibrillation

Background

P‐wave duration (P_DURATION) and P‐wave area (P_AREA) have been linked to risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), but they do not improve the efficacy of Framingham AF risk score. We suggest the incorporation of both variables in one index, the P‐wave area/P‐wave duration (P_{AREA/DURATION}) index, which may be considered an expression of the average amplitude of the P wave that reflects aspects of P‐wave morphology.

Objective

To assess the prognostic value of P‐wave area/P‐wave duration index (P_{AREA/DURATION} index) in lead II together with other P‐wave indices (PWIs) in incidence of AF in the Copenhagen Holter Study.

Methods

The study included 632 men and women, between 55 and 75 years with no apparent heart disease or AF. Baseline standard 12‐lead Electrocardiography (ECGs) were analyzed manually.

Results

The median follow‐up time was 14.7 (14.5;14.9) years. A total of 68 cases of AF and 233 cases of death were recorded. The restricted cubic spline method showed a U‐shaped association between P_{AREA/DURATION} and rate of AF. The lowest quintile of P_{AREA/DURATION} index in lead II was associated with increased rate of AF, HR 2.80 (1.64–4.79). The addition of the new index to the Framingham model for AF improved the model in this population. The P_AREA in lead II in its lowest quintile was also associated with increased rate of AF, HR 2.16 (1.25–3.75), but did not improve the Framingham model. P_DURATION and P‐wave terminal force (PTF) were not significantly associated with AF.

Conclusion

A flat P wave as expressed by a small P_{AREA/DURATION} index in lead II is associated with increased rate of incident AF beyond known AF risk factors.

[Biomarkers and atrial fibrillation : Prediction of recurrences and thromboembolic events after rhythm control management]

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in clinical praxis and is associated with an increased risk for cardio- and cerebrovascular complications leading to an increased mortality. Catheter ablation represents one of the most important and efficient therapy strategies in AF patients. Nevertheless, the high incidence of arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation leads to repeated procedures and higher treatment costs. Recently, several scores had been developed to predict rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation. Biomarker research is also of enormous interest. There are many clinical and blood biomarkers pathophysiologically associated with AF occurrence, progression and recurrences. These biomarkers-including different markers in blood (e. g. von Willebrand factor, D‑dimer, natriuretic peptides) or urine (proteins, epidermal grown factor receptor) but also cardiac imaging (echocardiography, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging)-could help to improve clinical scores and be useful for individualized AF management and optimized patients' selection for different AF treatment strategies. In this review, the role of diverse biomarkers and their predictive value related to AF-associated complications are discussed.

Relation of premature atrial complexes with stroke and death: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Frequent premature atrial complexes (PACs) are universal in the general population; however, their clinical significance is unclear. We hypothesize that frequent PACs are associated with increased risk of stroke and death. The PubMed (from 1966 to April 2017) and Embase (from 1974 to April 2017) databases were searched for longitudinal studies that reported the relation of PACs with incidence of stroke and death with various etiologies. Study quality was evaluated, and the relative risks (RR) of unfavorable outcomes in subjects with frequent PACs vs those without were calculated. Eleven studies with overall high quality were eligible according to inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis demonstrated that frequent PACs were associated with an increased risk of stroke (unadjusted RR: 2.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.79-2.70; adjusted RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25-1.60) and death from all causes (unadjusted RR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.80-2.63; adjusted RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.13-1.41), cardiovascular diseases (unadjusted RR: 2.89, 95% CI: 2.20-3.79; adjusted RR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.24-1.54), and coronary artery disease (unadjusted RR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.64-4.58; adjusted RR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.27-2.37). No significant publication bias was detected. The association was robust in sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, and pooled analysis of estimates adjusting for confounding factors. Frequent PACs are not benign phenomena; they are associated with higher risk of unfavorable outcomes. Further research on the optimal management of subjects with frequent PACs is urgently required.

Surface ECG interatrial block-guided treatment for stroke prevention: rationale for an attractive hypothesis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia and is associated with stroke, cognitive impairment, and cardiovascular death. Some predisposing factors − as aging, diabetes, hypertension − induce and maintain electrophysiological and ultrastructural remodeling that usually includes fibrosis. Interatrial conduction disturbances play a crucial role in the initiation of atrial fibrosis and in its associated complications. The diagnosis of interatrial blocks (IABs) is easy to perform using the surface ECG. IAB is classified as partial when the P wave duration is ≥120 ms, and advanced if the P wave also presents a biphasic pattern in II, III and aVF. IAB is very frequent in the elderly and, particularly in the case of the advanced type, is associated with AF, AF recurrences, stroke, and dementia. The anticoagulation in elderly patients at high risk of AF without documented arrhythmias is an open issue but recent data suggest that it might have a role, particularly in elderly patients with structural heart disease, high CHA₂DS₂VASc (Congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled] – Vascular disease, Age 65–74, and Sex category [female]), and advanced IAB. In this debate, we discuss the association of surface ECG IAB, a marker of atrial fibrosis, with AF and stroke. We also present the rationale that justifies further studies regarding anticoagulation in some of these patients.