Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model Predicting the Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Risk for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated with Nifekalant During the First Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish and assess a prediction model for patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with nifekalant during the first radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA).

METHODS

In this study, 244 patients with persistent AF from January 17, 2017 to December 14, 2017, formed the derivation cohort, and 205 patients with persistent AF from December 15, 2017 to October 28, 2018, constituted the validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used for variable screening and the multivariable Cox survival model for nomogram development. The accuracy and discriminative capability of this predictive model were assessed according to discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration. Clinical practical value was evaluated using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Body mass index, AF duration, sex, left atrial diameter, and the different responses after nifekalant administration were identified as AF recurrence-associated factors, all of which were selected for the nomogram. In the development and validation cohorts, the AUC for predicting 1-year AF-free survival was 0.863 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.801-0.926) and 0.855 (95% CI 0.782-0.929), respectively. The calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual AF-free survival and the nomogram prediction in the derivation and validation cohorts. In both groups, the prognostic score enabled stratifying the patients into different AF recurrence risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This predictive nomogram can serve as a quantitative tool for estimating the 1-year AF recurrence risk for patients with persistent AF treated with nifekalant during the first RFCA.

Long-term outcome of catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation in patients with severe left atrial enlargement and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

AIMS

Data regarding the efficacy of catheter ablation in heart failure patients with severely dilated left atrium and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) are scanty. We sought to assess the efficacy of catheter ablation in patients with reduced LVEF and severe left atrial (LA) enlargement, and to compare it to those patients with preserved left ventricular function and equally dilated left atrium.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Three patient groups with paroxysmal or persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing a first pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) were considered: Group 1 included patients with normal or mildly abnormal LA volume (≤41 mL/m2) and normal LVEF; Group 2 included patients with severe LA enlargement (>48 mL/m2) and normal LVEF; and Group 3 included patients with severe LA enlargement and reduced LVEF. Time to event analysis was used to investigate AF recurrences. The study cohort includes 439 patients; Group 3 had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. LA enlargement was associated with a two-fold in risk of AF recurrence, on the contrary only a smaller non-significant increase of 30% was shown with the further addition of LVEF reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term outcome of patients with severe LA dilatation and reduced LVEF is comparable to those with severe LA enlargement but preserved LVEF. Long-term efficacy of PVI is certainly affected by the enlargement of the left atrium, but less so by the addition of a reduced LVEF. CA remains the best strategy for rhythm control both in paroxysmal and persistent AF in this subgroup of patients.

Very late arrhythmia recurrences in patients with sinus rhythm within the first year after catheter ablation: The Leipzig Heart Center AF Ablation Registry

AIMS 

Arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) still remain an important management issue. Recently, the APPLE score had been introduced to predict rhythm outcomes within 12 months after catheter ablation, while the simple MB-LATER score was developed for the prediction of very late recurrence of AF (VLRAF) occurring after 12 months. The aim of this study was to compare APPLE and MB-LATER scores in predicting VLRAF.

METHODS AND RESULTS 

The study population included arrhythmia-free patients within first 12 months after first radiofrequency catheter ablation from The Heart Center Leipzig AF Ablation Registry. The APPLE [one point for Age >65 years, Persistent AF, imPaired eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, Left atrial (LA) diameter ≥43 mm, EF <50%] and MB-LATER scores [one point for Male gender, Bundle branch block or QRS >120 ms, LA diameter ≥47 mm, AF Type (persistent AF), Early Recurrence <3 months] were calculated before and 3 months after ablation, respectively. We followed 482 patients {age 61 [interquartile range (IQR) 54-68] years, 66% males, 32% persistent AF} for median 40 (IQR 35-50) months. There were 184 patients (38.3%) with arrhythmia recurrences within 13-60 months after ablation. On multivariate analysis, APPLE [odds ratio (OR) 1.517, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.244-1.850, P < 0.001] and MB-LATER (OR 1.437, 95% CI 1.211-1.705, P < 0.001) scores and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.214, 95% CI 1.353-3.625, P = 0.002) were significantly associated with arrhythmia recurrences. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated moderate prediction for both scores [area under the curve (AUC) 0.607, P < 0.001 for APPLE score, AUC 0.604, P < 0.001 for MB-LATER].

CONCLUSION 

Prediction of VLRAF is similar for both APPLE and MB-LATER scores. A better score remains still a clinical unmet need.