Envirome-wide associations enhance multi-year genome-based prediction of historical wheat breeding data

Accuracy of prediction from multi-environment trials for new locations using pedigree information and environmental covariates: the case of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) breeding

KEY MESSAGES

We investigate a method of extracting and fitting synthetic environmental covariates and pedigree information in multilocation trial data analysis to predict genotype performances in untested locations. Plant breeding trials are usually conducted across multiple testing locations to predict genotype performances in the targeted population of environments. The predictive accuracy can be increased by the use of adequate statistical models. We compared linear mixed models with and without synthetic covariates (SCs) and pedigree information under the identity, the diagonal and the factor-analytic variance-covariance structures of the genotype-by-location interactions. A comparison was made to evaluate the accuracy of different models in predicting genotype performances in untested locations using the mean squared error of predicted differences (MSEPD) and the Spearman rank correlation between predicted and adjusted means. A multi-environmental trial (MET) dataset evaluated for yield performance in the dry lowland sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) breeding program of Ethiopia was used. For validating our models, we followed a leave-one-location-out cross-validation strategy. A total of 65 environmental covariates (ECs) obtained from the sorghum test locations were considered. The SCs were extracted from the ECs using multivariate partial least squares analysis and subsequently fitted in the linear mixed model. Then, the model was extended accounting for pedigree information. According to the MSEPD, models accounting for SC improve predictive accuracy of genotype performances in the three of the variance-covariance structures compared to others without SC. The rank correlation was also higher for the model with the SC. When the SC was fitted, the rank correlation was 0.58 for the factor analytic, 0.51 for the diagonal and 0.46 for the identity variance-covariance structures. Our approach indicates improvement in predictive accuracy with SC in the context of genotype-by-location interactions of a sorghum breeding in Ethiopia.

Satellite-enabled enviromics to enhance crop improvement

Enviromics refers to the characterization of micro- and macroenvironments based on large-scale environmental datasets. By providing genotypic recommendations with predictive extrapolation at a site-specific level, enviromics could inform plant breeding decisions across varying conditions and anticipate productivity in a changing climate. Enviromics-based integration of statistics, envirotyping (i.e., determining environmental factors), and remote sensing could help unravel the complex interplay of genetics, environment, and management. To support this goal, exhaustive envirotyping to generate precise environmental profiles would significantly improve predictions of genotype performance and genetic gain in crops. Already, informatics management platforms aggregate diverse environmental datasets obtained using optical, thermal, radar, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)sensors that capture detailed information about vegetation, surface structure, and terrain. This wealth of information, coupled with freely available climate data, fuels innovative enviromics research. While enviromics holds immense potential for breeding, a few obstacles remain, such as the need for (1) integrative methodologies to systematically collect field data to scale and expand observations across the landscape with satellite data; (2) state-of-the-art AI models for data integration, simulation, and prediction; (3) cyberinfrastructure for processing big data across scales and providing seamless interfaces to deliver forecasts to stakeholders; and (4) collaboration and data sharing among farmers, breeders, physiologists, geoinformatics experts, and programmers across research institutions. Overcoming these challenges is essential for leveraging the full potential of big data captured by satellites to transform 21st century agriculture and crop improvement through enviromics.

GIS-FA: an approach to integrating thematic maps, factor-analytic, and envirotyping for cultivar targeting

KEY MESSAGE

We propose an "enviromics" prediction model for recommending cultivars based on thematic maps aimed at decision-makers. Parsimonious methods that capture genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in multi-environment trials (MET) are important in breeding programs. Understanding the causes and factors of GEI allows the utilization of genotype adaptations in the target population of environments through environmental features and factor-analytic (FA) models. Here, we present a novel predictive breeding approach called GIS-FA, which integrates geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, FA models, partial least squares (PLS) regression, and enviromics to predict phenotypic performance in untested environments. The GIS-FA approach enables: (i) the prediction of the phenotypic performance of tested genotypes in untested environments, (ii) the selection of the best-ranking genotypes based on their overall performance and stability using the FA selection tools, and (iii) the creation of thematic maps showing overall or pairwise performance and stability for decision-making. We exemplify the usage of the GIS-FA approach using two datasets of rice [Oryza sativa (L.)] and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in MET spread over tropical areas. In summary, our novel predictive method allows the identification of new breeding scenarios by pinpointing groups of environments where genotypes demonstrate superior predicted performance. It also facilitates and optimizes cultivar recommendations by utilizing thematic maps.

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050-2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype-environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.

Crop genomic selection with deep learning and environmental data: A survey

Machine learning techniques for crop genomic selections, especially for single-environment plants, are well-developed. These machine learning models, which use dense genome-wide markers to predict phenotype, routinely perform well on single-environment datasets, especially for complex traits affected by multiple markers. On the other hand, machine learning models for predicting crop phenotype, especially deep learning models, using datasets that span different environmental conditions, have only recently emerged. Models that can accept heterogeneous data sources, such as temperature, soil conditions and precipitation, are natural choices for modeling GxE in multi-environment prediction. Here, we review emerging deep learning techniques that incorporate environmental data directly into genomic selection models.