Preterm delivery risk in infertile women who conceived after reproductive surgery: natural conception versus IVF/ICSI

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective study on women with GDM who gave birth at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, between November 2017 and July 2021. We divided 1879 patients into a development set (n = 1346) and a validation set (n = 533). The development set was used to construct the prediction model for preterm birth using the stepwise logistic regression model. A nomogram and a web calculator were established based on the model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both sets.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Patients were women with GDM. Data were collected from medical records. GDM was diagnosed with 75-g oral glucose tolerance test during 24-28 gestational weeks. Preterm birth was definied as gestational age at birth <37 weeks.

RESULTS

The incidence of preterm birth was 9.4%. The predictive model included age, assisted reproductive technology, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, reproductive system inflammation, intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, high-density lipoprotein, homocysteine, and fasting blood glucose of 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.722 and 0.632, respectively. The model has been adequately calibrated using a calibration curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, demonstrating a correlation between the predicted and observed risk.

CONCLUSION

This study presents a novel, validated risk model for preterm birth in pregnant women with GDM, providing an individualized risk estimation using clinical risk factors in the third trimester of pregnancy.

Derivation and validation of the first web-based nomogram to predict the spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery using machine learning models

Objective

Infertility remains a significant global burden over the years. Reproductive surgery is an effective strategy for infertile women. Early prediction of spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery is of high interest for the patients seeking the infertility treatment. However, there are no high-quality models and clinical applicable tools to predict the probability of natural conception after reproductive surgery.

Methods

The eligible data involving 1013 patients who operated for infertility between June 2016 and June 2021 in Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital in China, were randomly divided into training and internal testing cohorts. 195 subjects from the Linyi People's Hospital in China were considered for external validation. Both univariate combining with multivariate logistic regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm were performed to identify independent predictors. Multiple common machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and extreme gradient boosting, were employed to construct the predictive models. The optimal model was verified by evaluating the model performance in both the internal and external validation datasets.

Results

Six clinical indicators, including female age, infertility type, duration of infertility, intraoperative diagnosis, ovulation monitoring, and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level, were screened out. Based on the logistic regression model's superior clinical predictive value, as indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in both the internal (0.870) and external (0.880) validation sets, we ultimately selected it as the optimal model. Consequently, we utilized it to generate a web-based nomogram for predicting the probability of spontaneous pregnancy after reproductive surgery. Furthermore, the calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, the decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis (CIC) demonstrated that the model has superior calibration degree, clinical net benefit and generalization ability, which were confirmed by both internal and external validations.

Conclusion

Overall, our developed first nomogram with online operation provides an early and accurate prediction for the probability of natural conception after reproductive surgery, which helps clinicians and infertile couples make sensible decision of choosing the mode of subsequent conception, natural or IVF, to further improve the clinical practices of infertility treatment.

Obstetric Characteristics and Outcomes of Gestational Carrier Pregnancies: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Advancements in assisted reproductive technology (ART) have led to an increase in gestational carrier (GC) pregnancies. However, the perinatal outcomes of GC pregnancies remain understudied, necessitating a deeper understanding of their associated risks.

Objective

To assess maternal characteristics and obstetric outcomes associated with GC pregnancies.

Data Sources

A comprehensive systematic search of publications published before October 31, 2023, using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases was conducted.

Study Selection

Two authors selected studies examining obstetric characteristics and outcomes in GC pregnancies with 24 or more weeks' gestation. Studies with insufficient outcome information, unavailable data on gestational surrogacies, and non-English language studies were excluded.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, 2 investigators extracted and synthesized both quantitative and qualitative data. Both fixed-effect and random-effect analysis were used to pool data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were obstetric characteristics and outcomes, including hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and low birth weight. Secondary outcomes included severe maternal morbidity and mortality associated with GC pregnancies.

Results

Six studies from 2011 to 2023 involving 28 300 GC pregnancies and 1 270 662 non-GC pregnancies were included. GCs accounted for 2.5% of in vitro fertilization cycles (59 502 of 2 374 154 cycles) and 3.8% of ART pregnancies (26 759 of 701 047 ART pregnancies). GC pregnancies were more likely to be conceived by frozen embryo transfer compared with non-GC ART pregnancies (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% CI, 1.56-5.15), and rates of single embryo transfer were similar between the 2 groups (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.94-1.48). GCs were rarely nulliparous (6 of 361 patients [1.7%]) and were more likely to have multifetal pregnancies compared with non-GC ART patients (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02-1.35). Comparator studies revealed lower odds of cesarean delivery (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.42; 95% CI, 0.27-0.65) and comparable rates of hypertensive disorders (aOR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.45-1.64), preterm birth (aOR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68-1.00), and low birth weight (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.50-1.26) in GC pregnancies vs non-GC ART pregnancies. Comparatively, GC pregnancies had higher odds of hypertensive disorders (aOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.13-1.84) vs general (non-GC ART and non-ART) pregnancies with comparable cesarean delivery risk (aOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.90-1.25). Preterm birth and low birth weight data lacked a comparative group using multivariate analysis. Severe maternal morbidity and maternal mortality were rare among GCs.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, although GC pregnancies had slightly improved outcomes compared with non-GC ART pregnancies, they posed higher risks than general pregnancies. Contributing factors may include ART procedures and increased rates of multiple gestations which influence adverse perinatal outcomes in GC pregnancies.

The association between neonatal birthweight discordance and preeclampsia in twin pregnancy

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between neonatal birthweight (NBW) discordance and preeclampsia (PE) in twin pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Women with two live births in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2011 to June 2020 were eligible. They were classified into four groups based on the quartiles of NBW discordance in monochorionic (MC) and dichorionic (DC) twin pregnancy. The relationship between NBW discordance and the risk of PE was assessed by logistic regression, subgroup analyses was further analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 1566 women were eligible for the final analysis, there were 445 MC cases and 1121 DC cases. No matter in monochorionic or dichorionic pregnancy, higher NBW discordance quartiles were associated with increased risks of PE. Compared with women in the lowest NBW discordance quartile, women in the highest NBW discordance quartile had approximately 3.6 and 6.0 times risk of PE in monochorionic and dichorionic pregnancy respectively. The association between quartiles of NBW discordance and the risk of PE were higher in dichorionic pregnancy than in monochorionic pregnancy. No matter in MC or DC pregnancy, no significant interaction effects were identified for maternal age, pregnancy body mass index, mode of conception and whether complicated with gestational diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased NBW discordance quartile was related to an increased risk of PE. Assessing estimated fetal weight discordance by using ultrasound in clinical practice to predict PE remained to be further researched.

Is Increasing Parity Associated with Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in Dichorionic Twin Gestations?

OBJECTIVE

Dichorionic twins have increased risk of preterm birth and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Grand multiparity may be associated with adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton pregnancies, although the effect of increasing parity in twins is unclear. This study aimed to elucidate whether grand multiparity leads to adverse outcomes in dichorionic twins compared with multiparity and nulliparity.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective review of dichorionic twins at a single institution between January 2008 and December 2019 comparing pregnancy outcomes among grand multiparity, multiparity, and nulliparity. Primary outcome was preterm birth less than 37 weeks. Multivariable regression controlled for differing demographics, prior preterm birth, use of reproductive technologies, and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Chi square and Fisher's exact were used for categorical variables and Kruskal-Wallis was used for continuous variables.

RESULTS

A total of 843 (60.3%) pregnancies were nulliparous, 499 (35.7%) multiparous, and 57(4.1%) grand multiparous. Univariate analysis indicated that multiparous women had lower incidence of preterm birth less than 37, 34, and 32 weeks (57 vs. 51%, p = 0.04; 19.2 vs. 14.0%, p = 0.02; 9.6 vs. 5.6%, p = 0.01) and that grand multiparous women had lower incidence of preterm birth less than 34 weeks (19.2 vs. 5.3%, p = 0.008) compared with nulliparous women. Multivariable regression confirmed multiparous women had lower odds of preterm birth less than 34 and 32 weeks compared with nulliparous women (<34 wk: odds ratio [OR] = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49-0.97, p = 0.03; <32 wk: OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.29-0.79, p = 0.004) and that multiparous women (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.42-0.77, p = 0.0002) and grand multiparous women (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.08-0.68, p = 0.0074) had lower incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy when compared with nulliparous women.

CONCLUSION

Grand multiparity is not associated with adverse perinatal outcomes compared with nulliparity or multiparity in dichorionic twins. Increasing parity may protect against incidence of preterm birth and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy even among grand multiparous women.

KEY POINTS

· Incidence of preterm birth may decrease with increasing parity in twins.. · Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy may decrease with increasing parity in twins.. · Grand multiparity is not associated with adverse perinatal outcomes in twins..

Investigating the Association of Assisted Reproduction Techniques and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Infertility affects about 80 million individuals worldwide and 10-15% of couples at reproductive age will seek medical assistance. There is increasing evidence that pregnancies after Assisted Reproduction Techniques (ART) are associated with pre-term birth, low birthweight, congenital defects, and increased mortality rates. The aim of this review is to assess all the published literature and provide an updated review on the effect of assisted conception and perinatal and neonatal outcomes.

METHODS

Comprehensive research on Pubmed/Medline, Scopus, and Google scholar electronic databases was conducted from July 2023 up to September 2023, using the terms assisted reproductive techniques, ART, in vitro fertilization, IVF, intracytoplasmic sperm injection, ICSI, preterm birth, PTB, low birth weight, LBW, chromosomal defects, congenital defects, and hypospadias. In total, 87 full text articles were retrieved and after a careful evaluation, 31 studies were selected for data extraction.

RESULTS

Our review demonstrated a higher risk of congenital and chromosomal defects, and a higher incidence of male genital tract defects and heart defects in ART pregnancies. Regarding pre-term birth, our results were contradictory.

CONCLUSIONS

Although assisted reproduction techniques are associated with increased risks, they are safe regarding perinatal outcomes and couples should not be discouraged from utilizing them. Our results aim to alert clinicians to these specific outcomes and offer more personalized care and counseling to infertile couples and their children.

A systematic review of prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth in singleton asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors

Backgrounds

Spontaneous preterm birth (SPB) is a global problem. Early screening, identification, and prevention in asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors for preterm birth can help reduce the incidence and mortality of preterm births. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth, summarised the model characteristics, and appraised their quality to identify the best-performing prediction model for clinical decision-making.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine disc, VIP Database, and Wanfang Data were searched up to September 27, 2021. Prediction models for spontaneous preterm births in singleton asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors were eligible for inclusion. Six independent reviewers selected the eligible studies and extracted data from the prediction models. The findings were summarised using descriptive statistics and visual plots.

Results

Twelve studies with twelve developmental models were included. Discriminative performance was reported in 11 studies, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) ranging from 0.75 to 0.95. The AUCs of the seven models were greater than 0.85. Cervical length (CL) is the most commonly used predictor of spontaneous preterm birth. A total of 91.7% of the studies had a high risk of bias in the analysis domain, mainly because of the small sample size and lack of adjustment for overfitting.

Conclusion

The accuracy of the models for spontaneous preterm births in singleton asymptomatic women with risk factors was good. However, these models are not widely used in clinical practice because they lack replicability and transparency. Future studies should transparently report methodological details and consider more meaningful predictors with new progress in research on preterm birth.

Analysis of the risk of complications during pregnancy in pregnant women with assisted reproductive technology: a retrospective study using registry linkage from 2013 to 2018 in Shanghai, China

Background

To evaluate the differences in pregnancy outcomes between assisted reproductive technology (ART) patients and natural pregnant women in Shanghai, China in the past 6 years objectively. And to assess the feasibility of the research method of registry-database linkage in mainland China.

Methods

This retrospective study was conducted using registry-database linkage. A total of 8102 pregnancies with ART and 8096 parturients with spontaneous conception (SC) from 10 reproductive centers and 111 hospitals composed our retrospective study. The primary outcomes were the rates of obstetric complications (pregnancy-induced hypertention [PIH], gestational diabetes mellitus [GDM], placenta previa, mode of delivery, preterm birth [PTB], low birth weight [LBW], and macrosomia). The prenatal outcomes were compared between ART and SC parturients, frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) and fresh embryo transfer, and in vitro fertilization (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

The final matching rate of the target population was 92% by using registry linkage. ART resulted in a higher rate of multiple birth, PTB, LBW, cesarean section, placenta previa and GDM compared with SC in the singleton cohort. In ART patients, pregnant women with FET had a significantly higher risk of PIH than those with fresh embryo transfer (14.1% Vs 9.3%, AOR1.528, 95% CI 1.303–1.793), but there was no difference between IVF and ICSI. FET is also related to the severity of PIH.

Conclusions

ART increased the rate of complications during pregnancy, the risk and severity of PIH in patients with FET was higher than that in patients with fresh embryo transfer. The registry-database linkage study is an objective and feasible research method in mainland China.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04846-1.