Artificial cycle frozen embryo transfer and obstetric adverse outcomes: association or causation?

Comparison of clinical outcomes and perinatal outcomes between natural cycle and hormone replacement therapy of frozen-thawed embryo transfer in patients with regular menstruation: a propensity score-matched analysis

Purpose

To investigate potential differences in pregnancy outcomes among patients with regular menstruation who underwent frozen-thawed embryo transfer using natural cycle (NC) or hormone replacement therapy (HRT).

Methods

This study retrospectively analyzed 2672 patients with regular menstruation who underwent FET from November 2015 to June 2021 at the single reproductive medical center. A one-to-one match was performed applying a 0.02 caliper with propensity score matching. Independent factors influencing the live birth and clinical pregnancy rates were screened and developed in the nomogram by logistic regression analysis. The efficacy of live birth rate and clinical pregnancy rate prediction models was assessed with the area under the ROC curve, and the live birth rate prediction model was internally validated within the bootstrap method.

Results

The NC protocol outperformed the HRT protocol in terms of clinical pregnancy and live birth rates. The stratified analysis revealed consistently higher live birth and clinical pregnancy rates with the NC protocol across different variable strata compared to the HRT protocol. However, compared to the HRT treatment, perinatal outcomes indicated that the NC protocol was related to a higher probability of gestational diabetes. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis demonstrated independent risk factors for live birth rate and clinical pregnancy rate. To predict the two rates, nomogram prediction models were constructed based on these influencing factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated moderate predictive ability with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.646 and 0.656 respectively. The internal validation of the model for live birth rate yielded an average AUC of 0.646 implying the stability of the nomogram model.

Conclusion

This study highlighted that NC yielded higher live birth and clinical pregnancy rates in comparison to HRT in women with regular menstruation who achieved successful pregnancies through frozen-thawed embryo transfer. However, it might incur a higher risk of developing gestational diabetes.

The true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer - impact of patient and follicular phase characteristics on serum progesterone levels one day prior to warmed blastocyst transfer

BACKGROUND

In a true-natural cycle (t-NC), optimal progesterone (P4) output from the corpus luteum is crucial for establishing and maintaining an intrauterine pregnancy. In a previous retrospective study, low P4 levels (< 10 ng/mL) measured one day before warmed blastocyst transfer in t-NC were associated with significantly lower live-birth rates. In the current study, we aim to examine the relationship between patient, follicular-phase endocrine and ultrasonographic characteristics, and serum P4 levels one day prior to warmed blastocyst transfer in t-NC.

METHOD

178 consecutive women undergoing their first t-NC frozen embryo transfer (FET) between July 2017-August 2022 were included. Following serial ultrasonographic and endocrine monitoring, ovulation was documented by follicular collapse. Luteinized unruptured follicle (LUF) was diagnosed when there was no follicular collapse despite luteinizing-hormone surge (> 17 IU/L) and increased serum P4 (> 1.5 ng/mL). FET was scheduled on follicular collapse + 5 or LH surge + 6 in LUF cycles. Primary outcome was serum P4 on FET - 1.

RESULTS

Among the 178 patients, 86% (n = 153) experienced follicular collapse, while 14% (n = 25) had LUF. On FET-1, the median serum luteal P4 level was 12.9 ng/mL (IQR: 9.3-17.2), ranging from 1.8 to 34.4 ng/mL. Linear stepwise regression revealed a negative correlation between body mass index (BMI) and LUF, and a positive correlation between follicular phase peak-E2 and peak-P4 levels with P4 levels on FET-1. The ROC curve analyses to predict < 9.3 ng/mL (< 25th percentile) P4 levels on FET-1 day showed AUC of 0.70 (95%CI 0.61-0.79) for BMI (cut-off: 23.85 kg/m2), 0.71 (95%CI 0.61-0.80) for follicular phase peak-P4 levels (cut-off: 0.87 ng/mL), and 0.68 (95%CI 0.59-0.77) for follicular phase peak-E2 levels (cut-off: 290.5 pg/mL). Combining all four independent parameters yielded an AUC of 0.80 (95%CI 0.72-0.88). The adjusted-odds ratio for having < 9.3 ng/mL P4 levels on FET-1 day for patients with LUF compared to those with follicle collapse was 4.97 (95%CI 1.66-14.94).

CONCLUSION

The BMI, LUF, peak-E2, and peak-P4 levels are independent predictors of low serum P4 levels on FET-1 (< 25th percentile; <9.3 ng/ml) in t-NC FET cycles. Recognition of risk factors for low serum P4 on FET-1 may permit a personalized approach for LPS in t-NC FET to maximize reproductive outcomes.