Predicting risk of intensive care unit admission after resection for non-small cell lung cancer: a validation study

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the decrease in the use of intensive care units in the postoperative period of anatomic lung resections. A retrospective analysis

OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 pandemic required optimization of hospital institutional flow, especially regarding the use of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. The aim of this study was to assess whether the individualization of the indication for postoperative recovery from pulmonary surgery in ICU beds was associated with more perioperative complications.

METHOD

retrospective analysis of medical records of patients undergoing anatomic lung resections for cancer in a tertiary hospital. The sample was divided into: Group-I, composed of surgeries performed between March/2019 and February/2020, pre-pandemic, and Group-II, composed of surgeries performed between March/2020 and February/2021, pandemic period in Brazil. We analyzed demographic data, surgical risks, surgeries performed, postoperative complications, length of stay in the ICU and hospital stay. Preventive measures of COVID-19 were adopted in group-II.

RESULTS

43 patients were included, 20 in group-I and 23 in group-II. The groups did not show statistical differences regarding baseline demographic variables. In group-I, 80% of the patients underwent a postoperative period in the ICU, compared to 21% in group-II. There was a significant difference when comparing the average length of stay in an ICU bed (46 hours in group-I versus 14 hours in group-II - p<0.001). There was no statistical difference regarding postoperative complications (p=0.44).

CONCLUSIONS

the individualization of the need for ICU use in the immediate postoperative period resulted in an improvement in the institutional care flow during the COVID-19 pandemic, in a safe way, without an increase in surgical morbidity and mortality, favoring the maintenance of essential cancer treatment.

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Postoperative Intensive Care Unit Stay in a Broad Surgical Population

IMPORTANCE

Despite limited capacity and expensive cost, there are minimal objective data to guide postoperative allocation of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) uses 8 preoperative variables to predict many common postoperative complications, but it has not yet been evaluated in predicting postoperative ICU admission.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the SURPAS model could accurately predict postoperative ICU admission in a broad surgical population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytical model was a retrospective, observational analysis of prospectively collected patient data from the 2012 to 2018 American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, which were merged with individual patients' electronic health record data to capture postoperative ICU use. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to determine how the 8 preoperative variables of the SURPAS model predicted ICU use compared with a model inputting all 28 preoperatively available NSQIP variables. Data included in the analysis were collected for the ACS NSQIP at 5 hospitals (1 tertiary academic center, 4 academic affiliated hospitals) within the University of Colorado Health System between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2018. Included patients were those undergoing surgery in 9 surgical specialties during the 2012 to 2018 period. Data were analyzed from May 29 to July 30, 2021.

EXPOSURE

Surgery in 9 surgical specialties, including general, gynecology, orthopedic, otolaryngology, plastic, thoracic, urology, vascular, and neurosurgery.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Use of ICU care up to 30 days after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 34 568 patients were included in the analytical data set: 32 032 (92.7%) in the cohort without postoperative ICU use and 2545 (7.4%) in the cohort with postoperative ICU use (no ICU use: mean [SD] age, 54.9 [16.6] years; 18 188 women [56.8%]; ICU use: mean [SD] age, 60.3 [15.3] years; 1333 men [52.4%]). For the internal chronologic validation of the 7-variable SURPAS model, data from 2012 to 2016 were used as the training data set (n = 24 250, 70.2% of the total sample size of 34 568) and data from 2017 to 2018 were used as the test data set (n = 10 318, 29.8% of the total sample size of 34 568). The C statistic improved in the test data set compared with the training data set (0.933; 95% CI, 0.924-0.941 vs 0.922; 95% CI, 0.917-0.928), whereas the Brier score was slightly worse in the test data set compared with the training data set (0.045; 95% CI, 0.042-0.048 vs 0.045; 95% CI, 0.043-0.047). The SURPAS model compared favorably with the model inputting all 28 NSQIP variables, with both having good calibration between observed and expected outcomes in the Hosmer-Lemeshow graphs and similar Brier scores (model inputting all variables, 0.044; 95% CI, 0.043-0.048; SURPAS model, 0.045; 95% CI, 0.042-0.046) and C statistics (model inputting all variables, 0.929; 95% CI, 0.925-0.934; SURPAS model, 0.925; 95% CI, 0.921-0.930).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Results of this decision analytical model study revealed that the SURPAS prediction model accurately predicted postoperative ICU use across a diverse surgical population. These results suggest that the SURPAS prediction model can be used to help with preoperative planning and resource allocation of limited ICU beds.

Outcome following unplanned critical care admission after lung resection

OBJECTIVES

Patients undergoing lung resection are at risk of perioperative complications, many of which necessitate unplanned critical care unit admission in the postoperative period. We sought to characterize this population, providing an up-to-date estimate of the incidence of unplanned critical care admission, and to assess critical care and hospital stay, resource use, mortality, and outcomes.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing lung resection in participating UK hospitals over 2 years. A comprehensive dataset was recorded for each critical care admission (defined as the need for intubation and mechanical ventilation and/or renal replacement therapy), in addition to a simplified dataset in all patients undergoing lung resection during the study period. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with critical care outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 11,208 patients underwent lung resection in 16 collaborating centers during the study period, and 253 patients (2.3%) required unplanned critical care admission with a median duration of stay of 13 (4-28) days. The predominant indication for admission was respiratory failure (68.1%), with 77.8% of patients admitted during the first 7 days following surgery. Eighty-seven (34.4%) died in critical care. On multivariable regression, only the diagnosis of right ventricular dysfunction and the need for both mechanical ventilation and renal-replacement therapy were independently associated with critical care survival; this model, however, had poor predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

Although resource-intensive and subject to prolonged stay, following unplanned admission to critical care after lung resection outcomes are good for many patients; 65.6% of patients survived to hospital discharge, and 62.7% were discharged to their own home.

O impacto da Pandemia de COVID-19 na diminuição do uso de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva em pós-operatório de ressecções pulmonares anatômicas. Uma análise retrospectiva

RESUMO Introdução: a pandemia de COVID-19 exigiu otimização dos fluxos institucionais hospitalares, especialmente quanto ao uso de leitos de unidade de terapia intensiva (UTI). O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar se a individualização da indicação de recuperação pós-operatória de cirurgias pulmonares em leitos de UTI associou-se a mais complicações perioperatórias. Método: análise retrospectiva de prontuários dos pacientes submetidos a ressecções pulmonares anatômicas por câncer em hospital terciário. A amostra foi dividida em dois grupos: Grupo-I, composto pelas cirurgias realizadas entre março/2019 e fevereiro/2020, pré-pandemia, e Grupo-II, composto pelas cirurgias realizadas entre março/2020 e fevereiro/2021, período de pandemia no Brasil. Analisamos dados demográficos, riscos cirúrgicos, cirurgias realizadas, complicações pós-operatórias, tempo de UTI e de internação hospitalar. Foram adotadas medidas preventivas de COVID-19 no grupo-II. Resultados: foram incluídos 43 pacientes, 20 no grupo-I e 23 no grupo-II. Os grupos não apresentaram diferenças estatísticas quanto às variáveis demográficas basais. No grupo-I 80% dos pacientes fizeram pós-operatório em UTI, comparados a 21% do grupo-II. Houve diferença significativa na comparação de tempo médio de permanência em leito de UTI (46 horas no grupo-I versus 14 horas no grupo-II - p<0,001). Não houve diferença estatística quanto a complicações pós-operatórias entre grupos (p=0,44). Conclusões: a individualização da necessidade do uso de UTI no pós-operatório imediato de cirurgias pulmonares resultou em melhora no fluxo assistencial institucional durante a pandemia de COVID-19, de maneira segura, sem aumento na morbimortalidade cirúrgica, favorecendo a manutenção do tratamento oncológico essencial.

"Fit for Surgery? What's New in Preoperative Assessment of the High-Risk Patient Undergoing Pulmonary Resection"

Advances in perioperative assessment and diagnostics, together with developments in anesthetic and surgical techniques, have considerably expanded the pool of patients who may be suitable for pulmonary resection. Thoracic surgical patients frequently are perceived to be at high perioperative risk due to advanced age, level of comorbidity, and the risks associated with pulmonary resection, which predispose them to a significantly increased risk of perioperative complications, increased healthcare resource use, and costs. The definition of what is considered "fit for surgery" in thoracic surgery continually is being challenged. However, no internationally standardized definition of prohibitive risk exists. Perioperative assessment traditionally concentrates on the "three-legged stool" of pulmonary mechanical function, parenchymal function, and cardiopulmonary reserve. However, no single criterion should exclude a patient from surgery, and there are other perioperative factors in addition to the tripartite assessment that need to be considered in order to more accurately assess functional capacity and predict individual perioperative risk. In this review, the authors aim to address some of the more erudite concepts that are important in preoperative risk assessment of the patient at potentially prohibitive risk undergoing pulmonary resection for malignancy.

Perioperative Factors for Predicting the Need for Postoperative Intensive Care after Major Lung Resection

Postoperative management after major lung surgery is critical. This study evaluates risk factors for predicting mandatory intensive care unit (ICU) admission immediately after major lung resection. We retrospectively reviewed patients for whom the surgeon requested an ICU bed before major lung resection surgery. Patients were classified into three groups. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed, and a clinical nomogram was constructed. Among 340 patients, 269, 50, and 21 were classified into the no need for ICU, mandatory ICU admission, and late-onset complication groups, respectively. Predictive postoperative diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (47.2 (interquartile range (IQR) 43.3–65.7)% versus vs. 67.8 (57.1–79.7)%; p = 0.003, odds ratio (OR) 0.969, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–0.99), intraoperative blood loss (400.00 (250.00–775.00) mL vs. 100.00 (50.00–250.00) mL; p = 0.040, OR 1.001, 95% CI 1.000–1.002), and open thoracotomy (p = 0.030, OR 2.794, 95% CI 1.11–7.07) were significant predictors for mandatory ICU admission. The risk estimation nomogram demonstrated good accuracy in estimating the risk of mandatory ICU admission (concordance index 83.53%). In order to predict the need for intensive care after major lung resection, preoperative and intraoperative factors need to be considered.

Association between anaesthetic technique and unplanned admission to intensive care after thoracic lung resection surgery: the second Association of Cardiothoracic Anaesthesia and Critical Care (ACTACC) National Audit

Unplanned intensive care admission is a devastating complication of lung resection and is associated with significantly increased mortality. We carried out a two-year retrospective national multicentre cohort study to investigate the influence of anaesthetic and analgesic technique on the need for unplanned postoperative intensive care admission. All patients undergoing lung resection surgery in 16 thoracic surgical centres in the UK in the calendar years 2013 and 2014 were included. We defined critical care admission as the unplanned need for either tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation or renal replacement therapy, and sought an association between mode of anaesthesia (total intravenous anaesthesia vs. volatile) and analgesic technique (epidural vs. paravertebral) and need for intensive care admission. A total of 253 out of 11,208 patients undergoing lung resection in the study period had an unplanned admission to intensive care in the postoperative period, giving an incidence of intensive care unit admission of 2.3% (95%CI 2.0-2.6%). Patients who had an unplanned admission to intensive care unit had a higher mortality (29.00% vs. 0.03%, p < 0.001), and hospital length of stay was increased (26 vs. 6 days, p < 0.001). Across univariate, complete case and multiple imputation (multivariate) models, there was a strong and significant effect of both anaesthetic and analgesic technique on the need for intensive care admission. Patients receiving total intravenous anaesthesia (OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.34-0.70)), and patients receiving epidural analgesia (OR 0.56 (95%CI 0.41-0.78)) were less likely to have an unplanned admission to intensive care after thoracic surgery. This large retrospective study suggests a significant effect of both anaesthetic and analgesic technique on outcome in patients undergoing lung resection. We must emphasise that the observed association does not directly imply causation, and suggest that well-conducted, large-scale randomised controlled trials are required to address these fundamental questions.

Preoperative risk factors for unexpected postoperative intensive care unit admission: A retrospective case analysis

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this retrospective case-control study was to investigate preoperative risk factors for unexpected postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients undergoing non-emergent surgical procedures in a tertiary medical centre.

METHODS

A medical record review of adult patients undergoing elective non-cardiac and non-transplant major surgical procedures during the period of January 2011 through December 2015 in the operating rooms of a large university hospital was carried out. The primary outcome assessed was unexpected ICU admission, with mortality as a secondary outcome. Demographic data, length of hospital and ICU stay and preoperative comorbidities were also obtained as exposure variables. Propensity score matching was then employed to yield a study and control group.

RESULTS

The group of patients who met inclusion criteria in the study and the control group that did not require ICU admission were obtained, each containing 1191 patients after propensity matching. Patients with acute and/or chronic kidney injury (odds ratio (OR) 2.20 [1.75-2.76]), valvular heart disease (OR: 1.94 [1.33-2.85]), peripheral vascular disease (PVD) (OR: 1.41 [1.02-1.94]) and congestive heart failure (CHF) (OR: 1.80 [1.31-2.46]) were all associated with increased unexpected ICU admission. History of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) (OR: 3.03 [1.31-7.01]) and acute and/or chronic kidney injury (OR: 1.62 [1.12-2.35]) were associated with increased mortality in all patients; CVA was also associated with increased mortality (OR: 3.15 [1.21-8.20]) specifically in the ICU population.

CONCLUSIONS

CHF, acute/chronic kidney injury, PVD and valve disease were significantly associated with increased unexpected ICU admission; patients with CVA suffered increased mortality when admitted to the ICU.

Who Needs to Be Allocated in ICU after Thoracic Surgery? An Observational Study

Background. The effective use of ICU care after lung resections has not been completely studied. The aims of this study were to identify predictive factors for effective use of ICU admission after lung resection and to develop a risk composite measure to predict its effective use. Methods. 120 adult patients undergoing elective lung resection were enrolled in an observational prospective cohort study. Preoperative evaluation and intraoperative assessment were recorded. In the postoperative period, patients were stratified into two groups according to the effective and ineffective use of ICU. The use of ICU care was considered effective if a patient experienced one or more of the following: maintenance of controlled ventilation or reintubation; acute respiratory failure; hemodynamic instability or shock; and presence of intraoperative or postanesthesia complications. Results. Thirty patients met the criteria for effective use of ICU care. Logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors of effective use of ICU care: surgery for bronchiectasis, pneumonectomy, and age ≥ 57 years. In the absence of any predictors the risk of effective need of ICU care was 6%. Risk increased to 25–30%, 66–71%, and 93% with the presence of one, two, or three predictors, respectively. Conclusion. ICU care is not routinely necessary for all patients undergoing lung resection.

Preoperative predictive factors for intensive care unit admission after pulmonary resection

Objective:

To determine whether the use of a set of preoperative variables can predict the need for postoperative ICU admission.

Methods:

This was a prospective observational cohort study of 120 patients undergoing elective pulmonary resection between July of 2009 and April of 2012. Prediction of ICU admission was based on the presence of one or more of the following preoperative characteristics: predicted pneumonectomy; severe/very severe COPD; severe restrictive lung disease; FEV₁ or DLCO predicted to be < 40% postoperatively; SpO₂ on room air at rest < 90%; need for cardiac monitoring as a precautionary measure; or American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status ≥ 3. The gold standard for mandatory admission to the ICU was based on the presence of one or more of the following postoperative characteristics: maintenance of mechanical ventilation or reintubation; acute respiratory failure or need for noninvasive ventilation; hemodynamic instability or shock; intraoperative or immediate postoperative complications (clinical or surgical); or a recommendation by the anesthesiologist or surgeon to continue treatment in the ICU.

Results:

Among the 120 patients evaluated, 24 (20.0%) were predicted to require ICU admission, and ICU admission was considered mandatory in 16 (66.6%) of those 24. In contrast, among the 96 patients for whom ICU admission was not predicted, it was required in 14 (14.5%). The use of the criteria for predicting ICU admission showed good accuracy (81.6%), sensitivity of 53.3%, specificity of 91%, positive predictive value of 66.6%, and negative predictive value of 85.4%.

Conclusions:

The use of preoperative criteria for predicting the need for ICU admission after elective pulmonary resection is feasible and can reduce the number of patients staying in the ICU only for monitoring.

Survival in solid cancer patients following intensive care unit admission

PURPOSE

One in seven patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) has a cancer diagnosis but evidence on their expected outcomes after admission has not been synthesised.

METHODS

Systematic literature review of solid cancer adult patients admitted to ICU from 2000 onwards using EMBASE and MEDLINE electronic databases.

RESULTS

There were 48 papers identified that reported survival in ICU patients with solid cancers. ICU mortality was reported in 35 studies comprising a total sample of 25,339 patients and ranging from 4.5 to 85 %. The average mortality of the distribution of reported mortality rates within ICU was 31.2 % (95 % CI 24.0-39.0 %). Hospital mortality was reported in 31 studies across a total sample of 74,061 patients. The average hospital mortality was 38.2 % (33.8-42.7 %) and ranged from 4.6 to 76.8 %. Poorer physiological score, invasive mechanical ventilation and poor functional status were associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors have been associated with poor survival in ICU cancer patients; however, primary research is still needed to describe outcomes in cancer patients with sufficient case mix and treatment details to be of prognostic value to clinicians.

Intensive care unit and lung cancer: when should we intubate?

Lung cancer still remains the leading cause of cancer death among males. Several new methodologies are being used in the everyday practise for diagnosis and staging. Novel targeted therapies are being used and others are being investigated. However; early diagnosis still remains the cornerstone for efficient treatment and disease management. Lung cancer patients requires in many situations intensive care unit (ICU) admission, either due to the necessity for supportive care until efficient disease symptom control (respiratory distress due to malignant pleural effusion) or disease adverse effect management (massive pulmonary embolism). In any case guidelines indicating the patient that has to be intubated have not yet been issued. In the current review we will present current data and finally present an algorithm based on the current published information for lung cancer patients that will probably benefit from admission to the ICU.